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Trump Base Slips – Trail Mix

Trump Base Slips

MACOMB COUNTY, Mich. —Two years ago, Jeff Daudert was fed up with politics. He wanted to shake up the status quo. He didn’t mind sending a message to the establishment — and, frankly, he liked the idea of a disruptive president.

But the 49-year-old retired Navy reservist has had some second thoughts.

“What the [expletive] were we thinking?” he asked the other night inside a Walmart here, in an area of blue-collar suburban Detroit that helped deliver the presidency to Trump.

— Matt Viser, Washington Post

NPR/PBS Poll

  • Down significantly among suburban men, a net-positive approval rating of 51-to-39 percentto a net-negative of 42 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove. That’s a net change of down 18 percentage points.
  • Down a net of 13 points among white evangelicals, from 73-to-17 percent approve to 66-to-23 percent approve.
  • Down a net of 10 points among Republicans,from 90-to-7 percent approve to 83-to-10 percent.
  • Down marginally among white men without a college degree, from 56-to-34 percent approve to 50-to-35 percent approve, a net change downward of 7 points.
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Author: craigcrawford

Trail Mix Host. Lapsed journalist, author & retired pundit happily promoting nothing but the truth for Social Security checks.


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50 thoughts on “Trump Base Slips”

  1. looking back on adjectives the trail noted re Kamala: formidable, experienced, analytical, and super smart – 
    weren’t those also descriptors for Hillary in 2008 and 2016? 

    comparing the charisma and media love of someone like beto to kamala or kobuchar,
    am afraid bink’s right about “Americans want celebrities to worship, not wonks.”

  2. and in the politico morning consult poll:

    President Donald Trump’s disapproval rating is at an all-time high amid a historically long partial government shutdown and concerns about the president’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.
     
    Nearly 6-in-10 voters — 57 percent — disapprove of Trump’s job performance, compared to the 40 percent that approve. In addition, 54 percent of voters blame Trump and Republicans on Capitol Hill for the government shutdown. Only 35 percent blame congressional Democrats.
    […]
    According to the poll, 57 percent believe it’s likely that Russia “has compromising information“ on Trump, compared to 31 percent who don’t think it’s likely.

  3. And yet SFB still has a 41.6 approval average at RCP, but he’s upside down by 13.6 % there. I just don’t get it. 

    Oh, and it’s 23 days into the year and Suckabee hasn’t held a presser yet. Is she furloughed? Being paid? I’m guessing she’s being paid not to work unlike TSA and IRS workers being forced to work without being paid. Ah, Trumpco. Great business model.

  4. POGO – under the SFB dictatorship there is no need for press conferences anymore.  The grand simpleton will tell us what we need to know, when we need to know.  Besides didn’t SS decide to leave at the end of 2018?  Maybe she is still hanging around waiting for a call from a potential employer?

  5. and another poll (Harvard caps/harris) reported by the Hill:
    Only a quarter of U.S. voters view Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) favorably, the lowest of any other congressional leader included in the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey released exclusively to The Hill on Tuesday.
    The survey showed McConnell’s favorability underwater at just 25 percent, with 44 percent having an unfavorable view.
    Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) fared little better, coming in at 30 percent and 35 percent, respectively. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was not included in the survey.
    The approval rating for all three leaders are below President Trump’s favorability, according to the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey, which stands at 41 percent, while Vice President Pence comes in at 42 percent.
    […]
    Amy McGrath, a Democrat who narrowly lost her race against Rep. Andy Barr (R) in Kentucky’s 6th District last year, has been floated as a potential challenger to McConnell in 2020.
    She said last month that she will not run for governor in 2019, fueling speculation of a possible Senate bid.It’s unclear how aggressively Democrats are planning to target McConnell’s seat in 2020. But David Bergstein, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said that the Kentucky Republican’s reelection prospects are on shaky ground.“A pack of bloodhounds couldn’t find a voter who likes Sen. McConnell,” Bergstein said. “He’s driven America into the longest government shutdown in history, pushed a health care agenda that slashes coverage for pre-existing conditions and he wants to cut Medicare and Social Security so he can give his rich, powerful friends another tax break.“He’s so focused on money and power he’s forgotten his job is to put the Commonwealth’s interests first and that’s why he’s so vulnerable in 2020.”
    [continues]

  6. BB, if that’s Suckabee’s career plan, she may need to rethink it.  Political shills who don’t have TV good looks don’t show up as regulars on the RW BS networks these days that I can tell.
     
    So wild weather swings here.  Yesterday at 8:00 it was 5 degrees and sunny according to the IPhone weather app on my phone.  This morning, after it regained its footing it was 48 degrees and cloudy.  Doing the math, that’s a 43 degree change in 24 hours.  I’m waiting for bird to start dropping from the sky.
     
    So young Sandmann and his schoolmates woke to a closed school this morning. Apparently idiots from our side (or idiots from the other side who want to make it look like it’s coming from our side) have been making threats – including death threats.  Really?  Exactly what would justify that? Ok, the kid’s a MAGAt, he’s anti-abortion, he’s a disrespectful puke and he’s a stupid teenager, and his classmates appeared to be like him.  That doesn’t justify threats of any sort.  Mocking him, sure.  Criticizing his views, definitely.  But threats?  C’mon, man, we’re better than that.

  7. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy(R-Calif.) was not included in the survey.

    LOL – no one but his constituents and political junkies could pick him out of a lineup.
     
    And back in TrumpShutDown world,
     

    Hundreds of Internal Revenue Service employees have received permission to skip work during the partial government shutdown due to financial hardship, and union leaders said Tuesday that they expected absences to surge as part of a coordinated protest that could hamper the government’s ability to process taxpayer refunds on time.
     
    The Trump administration last week ordered at least 30,000 IRS workers back to their offices, where they have been working to process refunds without pay. It was one of the biggest steps the government has taken to mitigate the shutdown’s impact on Americans’ lives.
     
    But IRS employees across the country — some in coordinated protest, others out of financial necessity — won’t be clocking in, according to Tony Reardon, president of the National Treasury Employees Union, and several local union officials. The work action is widespread and includes employees from a processing center in Ogden, Utah, to the Brookhaven campus on New York’s Long Island.

    The irony – furloughed IRS workers who are not being paid won’t even be able to rely upon getting their tax refunds quickly to fill the gap.

  8. From what I can tell voters who chose both Obama and then Trump have just about entirely abandoned him. And that was his margin of “victory” in swing states.

  9. I can’t fathom why or how senate repugs think Midge is furthering their or their constituents’ interests. Would they ever have the courage to beg him to retire as majority leader?

  10. I think some trump voters just wanted a change from the usual politicians, but knew very little about the man himself.  Now they are seeing what the screaming of “oh no… anyone but him” were all about.
     
    If trump hadn’t run for president (and won) he would have gotten away with all his dirty business tricks.  When I saw last night on MSNBC that Mark Burnett has been linked to the Russians and will most likely be called in to testify to Congress,  I knew the jig was up.  ALL of it will now be exposed.
     
    As Gump said…  stupid is as stupid does…

  11. This is the pathetic ActBlue message that I just received from Kamala’s campaign:
    Change doesn’t just happen in our neighborhoods and in our communities. It takes people who are willing to step up, work hard and push boundaries for what’s right.
    Right now, our country needs bold leaders who aren’t afraid to take a stand.
    Kamala Harris is a lifelong public safety and civil rights leader. Since she was elected to the Senate in 2016, Kamala has stood fearlessly on the right side of history, at the forefront of every important fight, working hard on behalf of the voiceless and vulnerable in our country.
    That’s why Kamala is running for President of the United States: to fight for freedom, justice, and equality for all. But Kamala can’t do this work alone. If you can afford it, stand with Kamala today: add a contribution of $10 or more to our campaign.

  12. …all about that “who would you rather have a beer with” question- can only really think of one person in the convo who wins that- Beto.  
     
    …maybe, Booker?

    (i don’t like that it comes down to that, it just does- i’d personally prefer a benevolent and highly-qualified nerd.)

    Have a good day!

  13. Because of the shallowness of her message, I shan’t make a move to support her until she shows the substance of her background and qualifications.

  14. Bink, I agree with your candidate qualifications. That’s why I’m an Eleanor Roosevelt Democrat.

  15. Harris’ resume looks kinda thin. She hasn’t even gotten her Senate seat warm yet. 

  16. I think I could enjoy  beer with Sherrod Brown or Amy Klobuchar  
    I think Beto O”Rourke was a great candidate against Cruz but his past political history is not so great – he would need an apology tour as well 

  17. Well he can’t come to the house floor without Nancy’s P’s permission
    I hope no member of congress is there and the light are out

  18. I don’t often cite Vox – I don’t often read it – but they report on two polls released today that bear consideration.

    Thirty-three days after it began, two new polls released Wednesday morning indicate President Donald Trump’s position on the partial government shutdown is less popular than ever and is dragging down his approval rating.
     
    According to a Politico/Morning Consult poll of 1,996 voters conducted from January 18 to 22 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent, only 7 percent of voters say they support “dedicating funding to a border wall if it was the only way to end the government shutdown” — in other words, Trump’s strategy so far. The unpopularity of Trump’s position suggests Democrats have little reason to cave to Trump’s demand of $5.7 billion for the wall as a condition of reopening the government.
     
    That same poll finds Trump’s disapproval at an all-time high of 57 percent. Notably, Trump’s disapproval among independents — 60 percent — is also at its highest ever.
     

    NEW POLL: Trump's disapproval hits record high https://morningconsult.com/2019/01/23/trumps-disapproval-hits-record-high-amid-government-shutdown/ …

    32
    6:41 AM – Jan 23, 2019

    The Politico/Morning Consult poll finds that a majority of voters — 54 percent — blame Trump and congressional Republicans for the shutdown, compared to 35 percent who blame Democrats.
     
    In a statement, Tyler Sinclair, Morning Consult’s vice president, said, “As the government shutdown enters its second month, President Trump continues to carry the bulk of the blame among voters for the stalemate. … In this week’s poll nearly half of voters (49 percent) say the president is responsible — up 6 points since the shutdown began. At the same time, 35 percent of voters blame congressional Democrats, up 4 points, while 4 percent of voters blame congressional Republicans, down 3 points.”
     
    The second poll, conducted by CBS News, finds that 71 percent of Americans “don’t think the issue of a border wall is worth a government shutdown, which they say is now having a negative impact on the country.”
     
    The poll — conducted by telephone from January 18 to 21 with a random sample of 1,102 adults nationwide — also finds that Americans think House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is doing a better job than Trump at handling the shutdown.
    CBS
    There is a glimmer of positivity for Trump in the CBS poll. It finds that a slight majority of people, 52 percent, want Democrats to agree to a budget that includes wall funding, compared to 43 percent who want Dems to refuse to fund the border wall.
     
    But of particular concern to Trump is the CBS poll’s finding that his base is beginning to fracture over the shutdown, with significant percentages of Republicans now saying the wall isn’t worth it and expressing support for reopening the government without wall funding.

    cite=”https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1088069152294744064″>

    Greg Sargent✔@ThePlumLineGS

    Trump’s base is fracturing over the shutdown.The new CBS poll finds:43% of Republicans say the wall is *not* worth govt shutdown21% of Republicans say border can be secured *without* wall30% of Republicans want Trump to reopen govt *without* wallhttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/pelosi-has-edge-over-trump-on-budget-negotiations-says-cbs-news-poll/ …

    844
    8:41 AM – Jan 23, 2019
    Twitter Ads info and privacy

    Pelosi has edge over Trump on budget negotiations, CBS News poll shows
    Seven in 10 Americans don’t think the issue of a border wall is worth a government shutdown, new CBS News survey finds
    cbsnews.com

    The CBS poll finds that Trump’s approval rating has dipped three points since November, to 36 percent, with an all-time high of 59 percent of Americans now disapproving of the job he’s doing.

    A bonafide political consultant would tell SFB to cut it the shit out and get everything but the border security funding passed and then try to negotiate something regarding comprehensive immigration reform and border security.  Too bad he doesn’t have one of those around … and wouldn’t take that advice even if he did.

    Sorry for the formatting snafus, but you get the point.

  19. And I just have to add this from that Vox piece.

    Trump’s new favorite poll also contains almost nothing but bad news for him
    While the overall picture emerging from the shutdown polling is a bleak one for Trump, over the past week he has repeatedly cherry-picked a single metric from an NPR/PBS/Marist poll showing that his approval rating among Latinos has gone up since last month.
     
     
    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
     Marist/NPR/PBS Poll shows President Trump’s approval rating among Latinos going to 50%, an increase in one year of 19%. Thank you, working hard!
    86.8K
    8:25 AM – Jan 22, 2019

     

    But as I detailed on Tuesday, even that poll contains almost nothing but bad news for Trump. It shows his disapproval rating (45 percent) is the highest it’s been for more than a year, and that a majority of registered voters — 57 percent — say they will definitely vote against him in 2020.

    Sometimes I read things I can’t help but find solace in – like that 57% number who would definitely vote against SFB in 2020.  AS I have been told – This, too, shall pass.

  20. Mr trump, 
    As a guest in the House you will act with decorum. The event is meant to be informative for the people, not a partisan campaign speech. Any crude, insensitive, or accusatory language will be dealt with. 
    Sincerely,
    Speaker of the House
     

  21. Pat, there were some dirty tricks done on behalf of his candidacy in the spring of whatever year that was. That solidified my support for Hillary. FWIW, I was proud having him as Our President.

  22. Flatus, thank you.  I’m not as up on military acronyms as you… having never served.
    XR, well, actually, the event is to give Congress information on the state of the country.  

  23. 1. At the first sign that trump is campaigning or ranting, tell him that he is out of order. If he has nothing left but campaign schpiel or abuse, thank him and tell him, “you may leave now.” 
    2. Turn off his microphone.
    3. Pull the circuit breaker for his microphone.
    4. Shouts of  “Lock him up !” are optional.
     

  24. Pelosi officially disinvites Trump from the State of the Union

     
    2:57 p.m.
     

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) officially will not allow President Trump to deliver the State of the Union address on the House floor next week.
    In a letter to Trump on Wednesday, Pelosi said that she will not permit a vote on a resolution allowing Trump to speak before both chambers of Congress until the government is re-opened. This response came shortly after Trump said he was still planning to speak in the House on Jan. 29.
     

     https://theweek.com/speedreads/819333/pelosi-officially-disinvites-trump-from-state-union

  25. and another postponement in the house reported by the guardian:

    Donald Trump’s former fixer and personal lawyer Michael Cohen is postponing his scheduled testimony to Congress due to “threats” against his family from the president, his adviser said on Wednesday.
     
    Attorney Lanny Davis, who has been advising Cohen, said in a statement that Cohen had decided to postpone his scheduled appearance on 7 February to a later date due to “ongoing threats against his family from President Trump” as well as his continuing cooperation with investigators.
     
    Cohen did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
     
    Democrats recently warned the president he should not intimidate witnesses after Trump repeatedly suggested Cohen’s father-in-law and family should be investigated.
    [continues]

  26. wapo January 23 at 3:20 PM
     
     
    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will not allow President Trump to deliver the State of the Union in the House chamber next week, writing to him on Wednesday afternoon that he can give the annual speech at the Capitol once the government shutdown is over.
     
    Pelosi said when she extended Trump the invitation earlier this month on Jan. 3, “there was no thought that the government would still be shut down.” The partial shutdown, triggered by a partisan standoff over Trump’s demand for a border wall, is now on its 33rd day.
     
    “I am writing to inform you that the House of Representatives will not consider a concurrent resolution authorizing the President’s State of the Union address in the House Chamber until government has opened,” Pelosi wrote to Trump. “Again, I look forward to welcoming you to the House on a mutually agreeable date for this address when government has been opened.”
    Pelosi’s letter came just a few hours after Trump had informed her that he planned to show up at the Capitol on Jan. 29 to deliver his annual speech to Congress. The sparring between the two leaders reflects the growing acrimony as the partial federal government is now the longest in history, with 800,000 federal workers forced to go without pay and states scrambling to mitigate the impact on the poorest Americans.
     
    The House and Senate must pass a concurrent resolution for a joint session of Congress to hear the president.
     
    Asked about Pelosi’s letter at a White House event Wednesday afternoon, Trump responded, “I’m not surprised.”
    […]
    Pelosi maintained in a brief exchange with reporters at the Capitol that her offer to Trump still stands as long as they are able to find a “mutually agreeable date.”
     
    Shortly before Pelosi released her letter, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) announced that he had submitted a resolution that would permit the president to deliver his address. But Pelosi’s statement means that the measure stands little chance of being taken up by the chamber.
    [continues]

  27. Yeah, the Monarch is forbidden to enter the House of Commons, ‘cuz chuck the one cut off MPs’ heads.
    Pelosi could hold a SOTUA in closed door session. 
     

  28. The big take away from thirteen years of having the simpleton SFB in the WH is that his great ignorance of everything, in particular the American Constitution, leaves him looking like the dunce he is when taken on by Speaker Pelosi, or your average five year old.  He fails to comprehend that he is equal to the Congress and the Congress has two equals, one much more equal than he is.  She is telling him in wonderful prose to shove it up his hind and blow smoke out his nose. 
     
    He is now just a sputtering fool because he and none of his cult/mob members even knows how to respond.  Stupid tried to play the game he has always played, bluster and stomp and do what he wants to do.  Speaker Pelosi told him the doors will not open no matter how hard he huffs, puffs and blows.  This is leaving his brown sky world all disrupted. 

    Although it feels like a lot more than just two years, thirteen is not right.

  29. KGC, for what does Beto have to apologize?  The DUI?  Anyone who drinks has one of those, or should.  It’s not great to have on the record, and i can see the attack ads now in my mind’s eye, but it’s surmountable.  He’s more qualified than Obama was, plus the electorate likes imperfect people.

    …pretty sure Beto is your 2020 nominee.

  30. It doesn’t help the image of the Red Hat Racists that the Senate Majority Leader is having Federal employees arrested who dared to show up asking  to be paid for their labor

  31. Thanks for the link, KGC.  After reading it, i’m even more convinced he’s the most viable candidate in the discussion.  i really don’t think the electorate is as “Progressive” as liberal influencers would like thier partisans to be.  It’s a mistake, in my opinion, to conflate Trump-fatigue with a genuine leftward philosophical shift in the voting population.  
     
     

  32. BUILD A WALL AND CRIME WILL FALL. 
    Bwahahahahahaha. Stupid ass. 

    Bink, I completely agree with that.

  33. Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 1h1 hour ago

      

    As the Shutdown was going on, Nancy Pelosi asked me to give the State of the Union Address. I agreed. She then changed her mind because of the Shutdown, suggesting a later date. This is her prerogative – I will do the Address when the Shutdown is over. I am not looking for an….

    No Mas!!!  No Mas!!!

  34. wapo:
    “I will do the Address when the Shutdown is over,” he said, adding that he would not seek an alternative location “because there is no venue that can compete with the history, tradition and importance of the House Chamber.”  

  35. also in that link:
     
    One similar parallel was in 1986, when Republican President Ronald Reagan asked Democratic Speaker Tip O’Neill for permission to deliver a speech lobbying lawmakers on aid for contra rebels in Nicaragua in advance of a closely watched vote. O’Neill turned down the president’s request, which was not for a State of the Union address.
     
    It was also under Reagan’s presidency that a State of the Union was last postponed.
     
    On Jan. 28, 1986, Reagan was preparing his speech when the space shuttle Challenger exploded. His formal address to Congress was postponed a week, and Reagan instead appeared in the Oval Office to mourn the seven crew members on board. In 1946, President Harry S. Truman postponed his State of the Union for four days, ultimately delivering it in writing instead. 
     

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