Author: craigcrawford

Yesterday’s new polling:
Harris 50 – Trump 45 (+5) Morning Consult
Harris 47 – Trump 42 (+5) Ipsos/Reuters
Harris 49 – Trump 45 (+4) YouGov/Times (likely voters)
Harris 50 – Trump 47 (+3) Leger/NYPost
Harris 48 – Trump 45 (+3) SoCal

YouGov Post-Debate Poll

Which presidential candidate won the debate?

Registered voters
🔵Harris 54%
🔴Trump 31%

Democrats
🔵Harris 90%
🔴Trump 6%

Republicans
🔴Trump 68%
🔵Harris 14%

Independents
🔵Harris 53%
🔴Trump 25%

The Big Question
If Harris wins, here’s how. I can’t think of any winner ever losing this question so badly: In yesterday’s Reuters poll, 49% said Harris “seemed like someone who would listen to me and understand my concerns” compared to 18% who saw Trump that way.

Washington Post gathered 24 undecided voters to watch the debate.
Overall results:

Our live debate thread.

We’ll have a new thread tonight for the 9pm ET Harris vs. Trump debate.

For now, let’s get ready. Get your free bingo cards form the Harris campaign.

POLL WATCH
Here’s the latest Morning Consult daily battleground tracking among likely voters: She’s got the edge in the Blue Wall (MI, PA, WI), tied in GA, NC, NV and some work to do in AZ:
AZ: Harris 47%, Trump 49%
GA: Harris 48%, Trump 48%
MI: Harris 49%, Trump 46%
NV: Harris 48%, Trump 48%
NC: Harris 48%, Trump 48%
PA: Harris 49%, Trump 46%
WI: Harris 49%, Trump 46%

Legendary voter registration analyst at TargetSmart, Tom Bonier (whose work predicted Dem success in 2022 midterms), is out with his first batch of Pennsylvania numbers since Kamala took over. And it’s good news for Dems:

Compared to same period in 2020, total new registrations increased by 34.3% in PA in the week following Biden’s withdrawal.
— Dem registration increased by 46.6%, GOP by 21.1%.
— Young voters led the way. New registrations among voters under 30 increased by a stunning 59.6%, relative to 2020.
— New registrations among women increased by 49%. Black voters: 110% (Not a typo).
— THE BIG SHOCKER: New registrations among Black women under 30 increased by 262% compared to the same week in 2020. That is more than a 3.5x increase!!!