[cross-posted via HuffPost]
Despite his unprecedented unpopularity for any modern president’s first 100 days Trump’s voters are unfazed. Asked if they’d vote for him again, 96 percent said yes. Only two percent regret their vote.
At first glance, of course, it’s easy to dismiss that number by saying ‘Oh that’s just his base, not surprising.’
But we’re talking about 96 percent of all voters who elected him. Indicating that he’d likely win again. Not all of his voters are part of his core base, the rally-goers and other diehards you’d expect to stick with him.
I had assumed there would be more slippage at the margins, among the less committed Trump voters who were holding their noses on Election Day. But 96% would vote for him again? That’s higher than I expected. I expected that kind of number only among his core believers.
This goes to show that trashing Trump has minimal effect on his voters beyond his base. It suggests that hating Trump won’t stop him, unless a lot of Trump haters who were absent in 2016 show up in future elections. It means that Democrats will need to significantly boost turnout to overcome Trumpism.
The more Washington elites trash him (especially the press corps) the stronger he gets. That’s how much they’re hated. And it sets up a scenario for him where anything that goes wrong he can blame on Washington and get away with it. So long as he is seen fighting the status quo, with or without results.
Trashing Trump appears to be ineffectual because his voters are convinced the system is rigged against him — and them.
More on HuffPost
Could that number be high (96%) because those asked couldn’t think of an alternative candidate? There is no other strong “presence” from either party. Wondering if that played a part.
blah blah blah..they are stupid ignorant idiots and the rest of us are suffering because they hate people of color Let America be more racist again
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/04/17/racism-motivated-trump-voters-more-than-authoritarianism-or-income-inequality/?utm_term=.0b5d8eac5c05
face the facts
SJ, only 2 percent regretting their vote indicates the rest might not be persuadable to another candidate yet
Making excuses instead of looking for solutions & opportunities is the true blah blah blah. Easiest way to get potential voters to tune out. Give people something to vote for instead of against. Just saying “Him Bad. You Bad. Me Good.” accomplishes nothing but more resentment & eventual apathy: Nothing changes. They’re all alike.
Mr Crawford,
Not so much persuadable as alternative. No one has stepped forward. Afraid, leery, or genuinely no one with courage?
But who’s out there to shake him up? These numbers aren’t encouraging for any serious primary challengers. And, like you said, without a positive message, Dems just running on Trump hate might not get the job done.
during the campaign Trump said, “this is your last chance to make American White again.”
his core voters will not leave him because he reflects their racists beliefs. The issue is getting the people who believe otherwise out to vote and that is what is happening.
Hating trump and what he is doing is a big motivation.
navel gazing into a scenario that doesn’t reflect reality isn’t going to do the job
KGC, there’s gotta be a non-racist way for Democrats to stop the hemorrhaging among white voters. Calling them racists certainly won’t get it done.
The fact that there is no one out there is scary.
I don’t think you have to say that’s the issue but you have to recognize the fact. I think the Dems have lots of choices and ways to go. But pretending that racism isn’t a major factor isn’t helpful.
I think the damage to public lands, the environment, schools etc will motivate people. And there are plenty of candidates. Lots of organizing going on. As usual the media does its usual crappy job and only focuses on the hysteria of a moment.
On the other hand if we don’t confront racism how will it ever get better?
craig, as sturge noted at 11:40 last night something weird occurred. we seem to have lost yesterday’s thread. not that it was anything special, just curious… but what happened? twilight zone thingy or did we violate some sort of copyright or civility rule?
This Tax proposal might be one way to get those White Middle Class people who voted for Trump back. The loss of the State deduction alone is going to shaft a lot of them. Fear of deficit increase might make an impression. Just flat out jealousy that even more than usual, the wealthy are making out like the bandits they have always been.
hating him works for me
The powers must have not liked the Lenny Clip
according to cnn back in dec: The Democrat outpaced President-elect Donald Trump by almost 2.9 million votes, with 65,844,954 (48.2%) to his 62,979,879 (46.1%), according to revised and certified final election results from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
so 96% of that 46.1% says they’ll vote for him again.
another way of looking at it is to compare his 46.1% election win with his latest approval poll at 40%…… looks like a ten percent loss.
Jamie, did you see my derby & oaks picks before the lights went out on yesterday’s thread?
derby: girvin, gormley and gunnevera for win, place and show
oaks: sailor’s valentine
patd makes good point. It’s not like he won in a landslide`
Published on Apr 26, 2017
Patd, sorry about that. Can’t figure out how yesterday’s post got into the trash bin, but it’s back now. I must have hit the wrong button or something, but there are a lot of safeguards against accidently doing that, very weird.
There are numbers, statistics and damned lies. Most important is we are still not in the finale of one hundred days of swamp creatures eat America. Those who will be hurt have not felt the pain yet. Due to staggering incompetence the howling mad at the moon president has not accomplished anything that would even begin to hurt most of the people. Life is still slogging forward irregardless of the guy.
So far.
If he and the republicans ever do get together these United States might end up California, New York and Hawaii with a bunch of beggars on the world stage.
BlueB, isn’t there a contradiction between saying he’ll hurt people and he hasn’t accomplished anything. There’s no pain to be felt if he’s too incompetent to do anything. I think he’s better off that way, then he can just blame Washington, and his voters will buy it.
PatD, the misleading thing about those approval numbers is they are surveys of all adults, obviously a much larger universe of respondents than those who actually show up and vote. They include people who didn’t vote in 2016, where disapprovals rise about 60 percent, so that skews the overall results if we’re trying to measure the actual electorate.
kgc, thank you. also if we look at Hillary’s win of 48.2% with only 85% of those saying they would vote for her again, that still comes out as 41% compared to his 40%….. unless I screwed up the math which wouldn’t surprise me.
bb, you’re so right about Most important is we are still not in the finale of one hundred days of swamp creatures eat America. Those who will be hurt have not felt the pain yet.
am dreading the grand gory finale he’ll put on in the eleventh hour of that hundredth day. will it be a big boom or bust?
boss, as bb said so eloquently There are numbers, statistics and damned lies.
latimes:
130,000-year-old mastodon bones could rewrite story of how humans first appeared in the Americas
nbc coverage on old bones better
“Trashing Trump appears to be ineffectual because his voters are convinced the system is rigged against him — and them.”
And the alternative regarding him is, what? Love him, embrace him, repeat the same lies he tells and that his base swallows? While it’s true I hate him and am embarrassed that he is the president of the US, I spend time ridiculing the idiotic lies he tells and pointing them out.
Yes, yes, the dems need to get a face out there who will have a credible shot in 2020, but until then what, sit idly by mute and listen to the lies as if they are truth? I don’t see that as a productive alternative.
“[i]sn’t there a contradiction between saying he’ll hurt people and he hasn’t accomplished anything?” No – he’s 100 days into his term and but for 3 federal judges who can tell the difference between up and down his travel ban would be in effect and he’d be cutting off grants to cities who believe in the rule of law, not suggestions buried in bills that are probably unconstitutional to begin with. “He’ll hurt people” is prospective, “he hasn’t accomplished anything” is historical. While he hasn’t gotten any legislation to speak of passed, he’s spreading the harm through his executive orders. I’d say that like the energizer bunny he just keeps on going and going and going….eventually he’ll get the dumbed-down Congress to pass something he’s proposing that will do real harm to real people – whether it’s the newest shiniest version of repeal (forget replace) or his tax boondoggle for the wealthy, it will happen.
kgc, is this little diversion for us the hysteria d jour you meant when you said “As usual the media does its usual crappy job and only focuses on the hysteria of a moment”
from today’s wapo:
North Korea puts out new video showing the White House in crosshairs and carriers exploding
SEOUL — A North Korean propaganda outlet Thursday released an inflammatory video clip showing a simulated attack on the White House and declaring that “the enemy to be destroyed is in our sights.”
The video comes at a particularly tense time in relations between North Korea and the United States, with the Trump administration sending warships to the region in a show of force against Kim Jong Un’s regime.
[….]
A North Korean website, Meari, or Echo, released a video showing photos of the White House and aircraft carriers with a target on them, as if they are in the crosshairs.
It then showed simulated footage of the aircraft carrier exploding in a ball of flames, with the caption: “When the enemy takes the first step toward provocation and invasion.”
The 2 ½ -minute video included scenes from the huge military parade that North Korea held on April 15 to mark the anniversary of the birth of the state’s founder, Kim Il Sung. It also showed footage of North Korean artillery and missile launches.
Against the background of missile launches, the caption read: “We will show you what a strong country that leads the world in nuclear and missile technology is capable of.”
[…..]
North Korea is known for its bombastic rhetoric and exaggerated propaganda, but it has ramped up its output in recent weeks as tensions have risen.
During a concert held April 16 and attended by Kim, a video was broadcast showing missiles arcing over the Pacific and leaving a U.S. city in flames, followed by images of a burning American flag and a cemetery filled with white crosses.
Similar videos showing successful attacks on U.S. cities were broadcast last year and in 2013.
“He’ll hurt people” is prospective, “he hasn’t accomplished anything” is historical.
pogo, not so prospective if you’re a daca dreamer or an lgbtq or someone dependent on life-saving healthcare in fear right now. he has accomplished something these 1st 100 days, something bad i.e. spreading hurt, hate, fear and anxiety
Pogo: “And the alternative regarding him is, what?”
That is the tough question. For starters, I’d say Democrats need to shed their skin as party of the status quo, become the change agent so many frustrated voters are looking for.
“shed their skin as party of the status quo”
craig, do you mean throw out all the current officials and establishment types? does that include warren, Schumer, perez, Pelosi and even Bernie the non-dem dem spokesperson?
some new faces sure would help, Pat
here’s a list worth perusal: “14 Young Democrats To Watch“
Holy Electoral College Steal! trump voters are still a minority and half of them will be dead by 2020. You also have to remember the power of artificial stupidity unleashed during the last election. The ruskies do.
I still think at this moment, we could take ‘them’ out…only 77,000 threw the vote.
I think the hate is for motivating opposition to trump…it is the opposite of love. Apathy is when you quit hating or loving. Hating him will not affect his supporters, but it keeps the resistance going.
As for up and coming dems? From the border states, I would add the following —
Beto O’Rourke going after cruz’s senate seat.
Martin Heinrich Senator NM
Although talked about many times before, this current pre-election season requires a revisit to the fact that many Dems in Congress do not see a why to go up a ladder due to the rules which keep the leadership in place. I am seeing hints of, if not blatant “I’m outta here”, from Dems I expected to be the next generation of House leaders. We need to expect loss due to the fun going out of being a representative.
It’s not about Trump (except for the most rabid in his base), it’s about the state of things. It’s about rejecting the status quo. That includes the media. Their knickers have fallen down and their ineptitude and bias are showing.
Bernie had the message. He could’ve beaten him if the DNC hadn’t colluded with the Clinton campaign.
Hillary didn’t have the message folks wanted to hear, which is why she said she would adopt some of Bernie’s ideas to get support from his base. Many didn’t believe her and went to Johnson & Stein.
So, Trump’s supporters realize that if most politicians were elected as POTUS, they would get more of the same…and “the same” hasn’t worked for them in a long, long time.
* The high numbers aren’t necessarily a reflection of their adoration of Trump, but of their disdain for Congress/past administrations and the negative impact they’ve had on their lives.
If there were another election next Tuesday, I still wouldn’t vote for Hillary, even knowing what I know now. I’d probably just not vote at all. As bad as it is (and this doesn’t seem to be working at all), another Clinton in the WH was never going to be the solution, either.
Rejection of status quo + lack of desireable choices as allowed by the DNC= Teflon Don (for now)
(duck & cover)
watching ‘melissa’ lie through his teeth….the noose must be tightening.
ForTrump voters it is about racism. For everyone else it will be about what it is like to live in a banana republic
Patd – Have your picks
Craig, Just this AM on Twitter I said: “Take your pick: Trump is either insane, supremely ignorant & incompetent, or incredibly evil”.
I honestly believe that he is one or more of those choices. In any case, everything he says and does is either wonderful (him) or wrong (anyone he can blame). It doesn’t matter which, since the combination of him and whomever is pulling the strings is that at best the rich will get richer and the middle class and poor will suffer or at worst there is mushroom cloud in our future.
It is one massive swamp that given all of the right wing paranoid money grubbers and the left wing purists without a clue and the global nationalist may be sending the world & the US down the nearest sewer thoroughly destroying everything this nation supposedly stood for.
bw, but spicey says big bad ‘bama is to blame…. also blames him for making spicey have to lie
raw story: WATCH: Sean Spicer just blamed Trump’s Mike Flynn debacle on Obama
White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer tried to deflect questions about former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn by putting the blame on former President Barack Obama.
When asked about the process the Trump White House used to vet Flynn for potential conflicts of interest, Spicer said that the real problem lay in President Obama’s decision to appoint Flynn as the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency in 2012 — despite the fact that the Obama administration forced Flynn out of his job just two years afterward.
Even though Flynn had been forced out of the DIA for regularly clashing with superiors, President Donald Trump decided to make Flynn his national security adviser — and then had to fire him shortly afterwards after he misled both the American public and Vice President Mike Pence about the nature of his contacts with Russian government officials.
“His clearance was last reissued by the Obama administration in 2016 with full knowledge of his activities in 2015,” Spicer said. “All of that clearance was made by the Obama administration.”
Earlier this week, Spicer said that the Trump administration had no responsibility to maintain any paperwork related to Flynn’s hiring because Flynn had filled out those particular forms before the administration came into power in January.
“Take your pick: Trump is either insane, supremely ignorant & incompetent, or incredibly evil”.
Jamie, all the above
The only message Bernie has had for forty years is “vote for me so I never have to work again”, but he makes it sound good daily while spouting easily swallowed platitudes that also require absolutely no work other than applause.
Jeezze louizzee America’s collective head just spun around and starting throwing up
Fired Flynn —oi the fault of Obama —
secret tax plan? I guess they don’t want the enemy to know in advance
Mr. Cracker and I went to see the Summer of Love exhibit at the DeYoung In SF A friend of his was part of the exhibit — the light shows–. A part of this exhibit is a collections of scraps of paper with various thoughts written on them. They must have found a hippie hoarder.
pretty obvious to me that some laws have been broken by a group of patsys and stooges. If it that obvious to me? There is more and deeper crime.
Commentary: Russia investigation teeters, but Trump’s strategy of stonewalling does not
By Tim Weiner
Admit nothing. “You’re the puppet!” Deny everything. “Trump Russia story is a hoax!” Make counteraccusations. “How low has President Obama gone to tapp my phones during the very sacred election process.” That’s Donald Trump reacting to the Kremlin’s malevolent meddling in the 2016 election.
The net effect of these comments can be summarized by one word: stonewalling, the tactic of the Confederate Civil War General Stonewall Jackson, whose motto was “mystify, mislead, and surprise.” Jackson died after he was shot accidentally by his own troops – and Trump needs to watch his right flank in days to come.
Greetings from the desert. Since we are playing the statistics game, it is my contention that no matter the person, the cause, the criminality, there will be a bottom statistic of 36% for Republicans. No matter what. I am also in agreement with PatD’s analysis that the Trump supporters right now are really only 40% of the total electorate. So, there is only a margin of 4% for Trump’s support. I believe Democrats and progressive independents should keep on piling on (not necessarily hating, although very tempting and easy) and chipping away at the 4%, which isn’t an insurmountable obstacle. The right candidate and more wrong moves by the Trump Bunch could move the needle rather quickly. Once Trump falls below 39% in popularity, he’s history for both the short term and the long term.
Update: The USS Carl “Wrong Way” Vinson is still not on station and is somewhere around the Philippine Islands as of yesterday.
What happened to the war with North Korea — did the senate briefing happen?
Nicely stated, eprof.
I believe flynn broke more laws regarding turkey…they are the second largest army in NATO and they operate under kurdaphobia. Turkey could easily join in the fight against ISIS, but would rather kill Kurds. The hatred of Kurds is more political than ethnic and flynn was smack dab in the middle of the fight against our fighting allies, the Kurds as a lobbyist for erdogan with a direct line to trump. Flynn sat in on the very first security briefings with trump after the election. Who was he working for? Sloppy or sleazy, I think he broke the law. He seems treasonous to me.
Senate briefing happened and all the Senators emerged yawning at the total nothing burger of inanity they were served.
Kentucky Oaks for those other than Patd who would like a filly. Click to enlarge
horsey’s cartoon and column at latimes
Trump’s first 100 days accomplished little but changed a lot
Jamie, I’ll take Tequilita, like the sound. Altho another bunch of really weird names.
Hey Craig
I’m taking Abel Tasman in honor of the Australian relatives. Can’t get much weirder than that for a girl. lol
Cognitive Dissonance – description:
“Sometimes people hold a core belief that is very strong. When they are presented with evidence that works against that belief, the new evidence cannot be accepted. It would create a feeling that is extremely uncomfortable, called cognitive dissonance. And because it is so important to protect the core belief, they will rationalize, ignore and even deny anything that doesn’t fit in with the core belief.” -Frantz Fanon
The original research into Cognitive Dissonance was conducted by Leon Festinger in 1957. Part of his hypothesis was: When dissonance is present, in addition to trying to reduce it, the person will actively avoid situations and information which would likely increase the dissonance.
Craig: I have a lot to say about this topic for a couple of reasons.
Above is just exhibit “A” 🙂
First, I have to address this because I’m a Capricorn and for me, always, the devil is in the details. My other reason is that I spent many years working in marketing research companies doing surveys etc. Because human services didn’t pay enough for a single mom raising 2 boys, I had to work extra jobs often.
I spent the last couple of hours scrutinizing the survey. On the survey page you can look at the details of each question. The one you are talking about is just one of about 35 questions. I also read the data report from the company that did the study. There are many other things I could say about each and every question, but the bottom line is that while the main page of the surveys may show the total % for each question, but the details actually tell a very different story. Most of those percentages were skewed by the following: white, less educated, males, republicans, and of course, trump voters. The differences in most cases are quite astonishing. I also found it odd that the specific question that you’re referring to has no detail differentiations at all. All in all, I actually found this to be a poorly written survey for a number of reasons I won’t go into because none of us has that much time. LOL!
In addition to all the skewed number by demographics, this was a phone survey of 1004 people. Not a huge study to be sure. Having done phone surveys and worked with many different types of people who were also doing them, I can tell you that there are so many variables that go into these, most of us doing them didn’t take them seriously at all. Each interviewer has a different personality, there is interviewer bias on many levels, responders also come in all personality types and I knew interviewers who would cut off an interview with a belligerent person and fill out the rest of the form themselves with whatever they thought the responder might have said. Also, people lie, tell you what they think you want to hear and, along that same line, interviewers can influence the responses by how they ask the questions. I could go on, but I think you get the gist of it.
As for why trump voters don’t seem to be reneging in large numbers…Cognitive Dissonance is a big part of it but buyers remorse can be cited as well. Part of buyers remorse for many is actually denial. Nobody wants to think they’ve been foolish or that they may have been conned (means they’re gullible) and even if they are not in denial, they would never tell a stranger on the phone that they did something stupid that they regret.
So, while I think he still has a core of supporters in the cult of trump, I don’t think the numbers are enough to turn the tide if he were to face criminal charges or impeachment. I almost agree with the 40% idea, but I think it’s probably lower. The only thing trumplestiltskin has accomplished in his 100 days it to make more Americans more afraid than in many, many years!
Jamie: Pat beat me to it, I’m in the all of the above camp too 😉
New eclipse Forever stamp will magically transform into the moon – CNN Money
https://apple.news/AKqTMFhSORmCTgkfLl4EzmQ
???
A+ for Granny!! Your post should have a sidebar of its own here on TM to read every time we have a discussion on polls and polling. Well done!!
For the first time more 18 -34 year olds live at home with their parents than live in their own homes. Step back to pre WWII and discover that multi generational families can live in one larger home cheaper and better than dividing the generations.
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/census-more-americans-18-34-now-live-parents-spouse
In November of 2016, who’d have thought it would be Trump and Jane Sanders that would be under FBI investigation into 2017
So Donnie the Drain is promoting 39 star American Flag – is that how many states he carried?
What I fear is that Democrats are doing what they did in the Reagan years. Whine, piss and moan, blame the voters, never themselves, talk about nothing but Trump and lose election after election because they never stood for anything positive or forward looking. I’m seeing the same ritual of self-affirming delusional denial that led to the 2016 loss in the first place.
no offense but that is what you are doing. There is plenty of evidence that is not what is happening.
The Dem turn outs in the special elections in overwhelming Republican districts has been good
Perhaps you need to get your head out of DC
Hoping you are correct KGC, and that I am wrong.
Signs point to yes!
https://swingleft.org/
It starts with the House.
Don’t despair. Mobilize. Control of the House in 2018 will be decided by a handful of Swing Districts, places where the last election was decided by a thin margin. Find your closest Swing District and join its team to learn about actionable opportunities to support progressives—and defeat Republicans—in that district, no matter where you live. We can stop Trump and the GOP agenda by working together NOW.
Ms Graham Cracker, asking the Magic-8 Ball 😉
Other possible answers include:
It is certain
It is decidedly so
Without a doubt
Yes definitely
You may rely on it
As I see it, yes
Most likely
Outlook good
Yes
Reply hazy try again
Ask again later
Better not tell you now
Cannot predict now
Concentrate and ask again
Don’t count on it
My reply is no
My sources say no
Outlook not so good
Very doubtful
*I predict one of these is correct.
I asked Mr. Cracker too and he said I’m always right
“Don’t despair. Mobilize.”
I like this positivity: Work together, be inclusive, don’t tear each other down with words or deeds.
http://dccc.org/
They have plenty of things for people to do!
I agree the Dems could do a better job presenting a positive agenda.
They should hold hearings on corrections to Obamacare.
Great post, Ms Mumantoog !
The poll would have presented a different picture if it had asked, if you had it to do over again, who would you have supported in the primaries ?
Or, Who would you have voted for had Sanders been the Dem nominee ?
And, as far as racism goes, sexism played a bigger role in 2016. Whether racism or sexism, hate and loathing played a big part in the election, and it makes up the very large majority of the ripper partisans.
eProf2 and xr: Thank you, I’ve been wanting to write about surveys and polls for some time and today’s topic was like waving a red flag in front of a bull LOL!
xr: You are right about that question. I had issues with the whole questionnaire but that question in particular was not a good question and left to much room for getting one answer.
Now, don’t even get me started on “scientific studies”…
Good night all!
I think the Dems should hold hearings on fixing ACA and working toward medicare for all
unfortunately KGC, Dems have no power to hold hearings on anything unless they rent a hotel room. thats what living in denial and losing elections gets you.
Valiant effort Granny but dismissing unpleasant data is how we got here.
then they should rent a room
Dems need to rethink the way they discuss the issues that are killing them and helping the rip-ups. For one thing, Dems are way too cerebral and dainty on the campaign trail. trump won, defeating 17 other rippers AND Clinton, because he spoke on a 3d grade level, hit emotional hot buttons, and went for the jugulars. Dems must do some of the same in the House and Senate races in 2018.
For instance, the so-called Stand Your Ground laws are actually pro-murderer and ought to be labeled as such :
7 year old Kimberly Smith was murdered by Congressman Wrongwing, who sponsored the bill that put that gun in Ben Throggle’s shaky hand. Mr Throggle shot and missed the thief, but it was Wrongwing who murdered that dear beautiful little girl. Vote for Brightway and put the real killers behind bars.
Or, regarding pollution de-regulation : Your children and grandchildren won’t grow up as smart as you are. Their brains, nerves, and bones will deteriorate earlier than yours. Because Rep Phlye Wrongwing voted to poison them with lead, cadmium, and mercury through YOUR air, YOUR water, YOUR soil, and YOUR food. What does he care ? His people live in clean Exurba. republicans like Wrongwing HATE your children. Vote for Barbara Brightway and SAVE YOUR FAMILY !
Weren’t the Pentagon Papers read in an ad hoc setting ?