Attribution: Voting while I still can by John Darkow, Columbia Missourian
78 thoughts on “Keep Calm-ala and Carry On-ala”
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https://www.battlefields.org/learn/primary-sources/abraham-lincolns-1862-annual-message-congress-final-remarks
[… he concluded with …]
A respected Iowa pollster predicts VP Kamala Harris will win big among that state’s female voters, the Harris-Walz campaign promised a fresh start for the country if they win, and the former president had major trouble with a microphone at one of his rallies.
one more from last night’s Late Show
Emmy-winner John Oliver won’t be voting early because he likes the excitement of lining up at his local polling place on election day. Stick around for two more segments with John Oliver and watch “Last Week Tonight,” Sundays on HBO.
— Theodore White about Election Day 1960, “The Making of the President”
I’ll start a new Trail Mix thread tonight at 6pm ET
POLL CLOSING TIMELINE
7 p.m. ET — 60 electoral votes at stake
*Indiana and Kentucky are in split time zones; the earliest results will be seen in the 6 p.m. ET hour.
7:30 p.m. ET — 37 electoral votes
8 p.m. ET — 171 electoral votes
*Florida and New Hampshire will see some results at 7 p.m. ET.
8:30 p.m. ET — 6 electoral votes
9 p.m. ET — 163 electoral votes
*Michigan, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas will see some results at 8 p.m. ET.
10 p.m. ET — 16 electoral votes
11 p.m. ET — 78 electoral votes
*Idaho and Oregon will see some results at 10 p.m. ET.
12 a.m. ET — 4 electoral votes
1 a.m. ET — 3 electoral votes
*Alaska will see some results at 12 a.m. ET.
— Ron Filipkowski, Editor-in Chief, MeidasTouchNews
Here is the AP breakdown of what to expect in battleground states (Winners not declared until after Election Day):
The order of results first reported in 2020 (all times ET): Georgia (7:20pm), North Carolina (7:42pm), Michigan (8:08pm), Pennsylvania (8:09pm), Wisconsin (9:07pm), Arizona (10:02pm), Nevada (11:41pm)
Arizona
Polls open at 8 a.m. in Arizona, which Joe Biden carried in 2020 by 0.3%. He was only the second Democratic presidential candidate to do so in nearly 70 years. Polls will close at 9 p.m.
Arizona does not release votes until all precincts have reported or one hour after all polls are closed, whichever is first.
In 2020, The Associated Press first reported Arizona results at 10:02 p.m. ET on Nov. 3, Election Day, and declared Biden the winner at 2:51 a.m. ET on Nov. 4.
Georgia
Polls open at 7 a.m. in Georgia, which played a key role in 2020. Biden was the first Democrat in a White House race to carry the state since Bill Clinton in 1992, defeating Trump by less than one-quarter of a percentage point, a margin of 11,779 votes.
Since then, Trump’s efforts to overturn those results have been at the heart of a criminal case in Fulton County. It is on hold while his legal team pursues a pretrial appeal to have District Attorney Fani Willis removed from the case and the indictment tossed. The Georgia Court of Appeals will hear those arguments after the election.
Georgia’s polls close at 7 p.m.
In 2020, the AP first reported Georgia results at 7:20 p.m. ET on Nov. 3 and declared Biden the state’s winner at 7:58 p.m. ET on Nov. 19, more than two weeks after Election Day.
Michigan
Polls open at 7 a.m. ET in Michigan, one of the “blue wall” states that went narrowly for Trump in 2016 after almost 30 years of voting for Democratic candidates. Biden won it back four years later. His margin was about 154,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million votes.
Michigan covers two time zones, but polls in most of the state close at 8 p.m. ET, with the rest at 9 p.m. ET.
In 2020, the AP first reported Michigan results at 8:08 p.m. ET on Nov. 3 and declared Biden the winner at 5:58 p.m. ET on Nov. 4.
Nevada
Polls open at 10 a.m. ET in Nevada, the smallest electoral vote prize of the battlegrounds. But it has one of the best track records as a presidential bellwether. The candidate who won Nevada has gone on to win the White House in 27 of the past 30 presidential elections.
Polls close at 10 p.m. ET. The state doesn’t release results until the last person in line has voted, so there’s usually been a wait between poll close and the first results.
In 2020, the AP first reported Nevada results at 11:41 p.m. ET on Nov. 3 and declared Biden the winner at 12:13 p.m. ET on Nov. 7.
North Carolina
Polls open at 6:30 a.m. ET in North Carolina, which has been carried by Democrats only two times in presidential elections since 1968. But the state has stayed competitive for both major parties. Trump’s 2020 victory in North Carolina, by about 1 percentage point, was his smallest winning margin in any state.
Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET.
In 2020, the AP first reported results at 7:42 p.m. ET on Nov. 3 and declared Trump the winner at 3:49 p.m. ET on Nov. 13.
Pennsylvania
Polls open at 7 a.m. ET in Pennsylvania, another “blue wall” state. Biden’s 2020 margin in Pennsylvania was about 80,000 votes out of more than 6.9 million votes. This year, it’s the spot where Harris and Trump met for the first time at their sole debate in September in Philadelphia.
Polls close at 8 p.m. ET in a state with more electoral votes, 19, than any of the battlegrounds.
In 2020, the AP first reported results at 8:09 p.m. ET on Nov. 3 and declared Biden the winner at 11:25 a.m. ET on Nov. 7.
Wisconsin
Polls open at 8 a.m. ET in Wisconsin, the third “blue wall” state in this group. Wisconsin is no stranger to close elections; the margin of victory in the state was less than 1 percentage point in 2020, 2016, 2004 and 2000.
Polls close at 9 p.m. ET.
In 2020, the AP first reported Wisconsin results at 9:07 p.m. ET on Nov. 3 and declared Biden the winner at 2:16 p.m. ET on Nov. 4.
Attribution: Poll Worker Heroes Monument by Daryl Cagle, CagleCartoons.com
November 5, 2024. According to the mainstream media, the 2024 election is deadlocked, so Grace Kuhlenschmidt consults a polling expert, a historically accurate predictor, and an astrologist to determine whether Kamala or Trump will win the presidency. #DailyShow #Election #Trump
It’s easy to predict Trump’s vote share tonight: 47%.
Trump was at 47% four months ago. He’s at 47% today. In 2020 he got 47%. In 2016 he got 48% (3d party vote in MI, WI only reason he got elected)
Yes. She. Can. — Kamala Harris, Nancy Pelosi, Liz Cheney, and tens of millions of women are responsible for defeating Trump.
Trump to supporters yesterday at PA rally:
Hitler ended up blaming the German people.
Hmmm…..47…..also his IQ.
(Rounding up.)
YES SHE CAN
10 Final Presidential Election Forecasts:
Harris Wins – 8
Trump Wins – 2
@FiveThirtyEight
🟦 Harris: 270 🏆
🟥 Trump: 268
——
@NateSilver538
🟦 Harris: 271 🏆
🟥 Trump: 267
——
@DecisionDeskHQ
🟥 Trump: 275 🏆
🟦 Harris: 263
——
Sabato’s Crystal Ball
🟦 Harris: 276 🏆
🟥 Trump: 262
——
@TheEconomist
🟦 Harris: 270 🏆
🟥 Trump: 268
——
@Elections_Daily
🟦 Harris: 292 🏆
🟥 Trump: 246
——
@CNalysis
🟦 Harris: 308 🏆
🟥 Trump: 230
——
@DailyMail
/@J_L_Partners
🟥 Trump: 287 🏆
🟦 Harris: 251
——
@jhkersting
🟦 Harris: 272 🏆
🟥 Trump: 266
——
@RacetotheWH
🟦 Harris: 275 🏆
🟥 Trump: 263
I’m betting some of those prognosticators will be right.
OMG! NBC just showed a polling place in Wisconsin and the poll workers are wearing orange, garbage safety vests.
You can’t wear candidate-branded gear, so how is this legal when Adolf wore one a couple of times and some at rallies started wearing them?
Those poll workers need to be charged with campaigning inside a polling place! Or maybe it’s meant to intimidate voters.
A sweep for Harris on the battle ground states, plus 3 others. Iowa, Nebraska statewide, Kansas.
Jack
I voted for a woman to become president for the 2nd time… last time I was disappointed…. I feel today will be different.
Never saw so many people at the polls…. and it’s only a one horse town.
They should arrest poll people wearing garbage vests. Beat the rush.
The hysterically funny thing about Maggots embracing the garbage imagery — and Trump in the garbage truck — is I saw a focus group of Latinos who assumed all that symbolism was meant to support the comedian’s “joke” that Puerto Rico was garbage. They had not even heard about Biden calling Trump supporters garbage. So this orange vest gimmick actually outraged them all over again. Too funny.
NYT’s Maggie Haberman at Trump HQ: “There is some anxiety below the surface. In some specific battleground states Republicans have not seen voters of their own coming out today in numbers that they wanted”
Putin is trying. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger says the non-credible threats that briefly disrupted voting at two Georgia polling places originated from Russia. “We identified the source; it was from Russia,” he says.
It’s Krusty’s Last Stand. All stops will be pulled out.
I voted this morning. I was voter #297 in my precinct. My birthday was yesterday, so I was a little sad that none of the people who looked at my drivers license today said, “Hey…yesterday was your birthday!” Anyway, I’m hoping my late-birthday present is that the orange guy loses today.
Ha. Corey. I voted on my Mom’s birthday. She would be so excited about Kamala.
I like voting in the afternoon and that is my plan. I did drive by the polling place, it was somewhat busy but no lines. Not anything like the lines for early voting. So we will see.
Took the dog out for a walk, Springfield has some good walking trails. Did about 2 miles, took the easy trail. All the rain we’ve had made the harder trail, with hills that give me a good workout was inaccessible as it has a lowwater bridge across the creek and after rain the water flows over it. We’ve had about 5 inches of rain in the last 4 days.
Jack
A lot of GOTV going on, when I got back from my walk there was a sticky note on the storm door reminding me to vote. Also a flyer tucked in the handle with a list of Democratic candidates. No mention of Josh Hawley’s Democratic opponent. Guess he believes it is better for him not to be seen with fellow Democrats, or he and the party don’t get along. It was just unusual.
Jack
A quote from a local “man on the street” interview.
So what is your beverage of choice tonight.?
Here is a couple of suggestions from the folks over at the bulwark
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/oct/18/harrison-butker-political-action-committee
“As well as being the highest-paid kicker in the NFL and the owner of a very impressive beard, Butker is what a polite person might call “traditional” and a more direct person might call “Taliban-adjacent”. He essentially thinks women should stay at home making sandwiches for their husbands and looking after their kids.”
“In May, the athlete caused a stir when gave a commencement speech at Benedictine College, a Catholic private liberal arts school, espousing these views. In the same speech, Butker also denounced “dangerous gender ideologies”, called Pride month a “deadly sin”, and rattled off various other conservative talking points.”
“Now it seems Butker plans on riding his newfound notoriety all the way to the White House. Don’t worry, he hasn’t announced a campaign for president yet – though one imagines the thought has crossed his mind – but he has decided to dip his toes into the murky world of political financing.
Everyone with a chip on their shoulder and some money in their pocket has a Pac these days.”
“Over the weekend, the kicker established a political action committee called Upright Pac,aimed at getting more Christians to vote. “We’re seeing our values under attack every day. In our schools, in the media, and even from our own government,” the website explains. “But we have a chance to fight back and reclaim the traditional values that have made this country great. That’s why UPRIGHT PAC was founded.”
https://people.com/harrison-butker-says-how-beautiful-it-is-for-women-to-step-aside-and-prioritize-their-family-8727543
“There’s nothing shameful if you are a woman and you want to spend time with your family and raise your children, so it’s not putting down anyone who maybe wants to go get a great education and have a career,” he said.
“But it’s more talking about how beautiful it is for women to maybe just step aside and prioritize their family and spend time with their children and raise their family. And that’s what I was just trying to speak love about,” he added.
Uhhh, “step aside”? Jesus wept.
Butker and Hawley made a disgusting appearance together. I believe Butker is one of the truly brainwashed by hard-right, misogynistic, Christian dogma. Hawley just seems like a schmuck, a white nationalist who pretends to believe; Christianity is just drag for him.
I wonder how quickly the MAGAt Mike Johnsons of the world will try to distance themselves from Orange Adolf?
Long night approaches
We’re stocked up on Kamala’s favorite snack — spicy Doritos
https://europeelects.eu/2024/11/04/u-s-election-europeans-would-vote-for-harris-if-they-could/
“As has been the case in recent years, most of western and especially northern Europe would vote for candidate of the Democratic Party, Kamala Harris, with wide margins. At the other end of the scale are Russia, Serbia, Georgia and Hungary, who would vote for Donald Trump of the Republican Party if offered a chance. The numbers of above visualisation are from opinion polling on the question with standardisation done by Europe Elects, by considering only those who answered the question and hence removing those being undecided.”
Interesting charts in link. The countries who like Harris the most have universal healthcare, paid parental leave, government subsidized daycare, and education through university.
I’m stressed. I’m making election night brownies.
It’s getting wiggly out there.
Capitol Police 1:37pm ET: Our officers just arrested a man who was stopped during our screening process at the Capitol Visitor Center (CVC). The man smelled like fuel, had a torch & a flare gun. The CVC is closed for tours for the day, while we investigate. We will provide more information when we can.
Ha! There’s an old SNL on TV. I had forgotten Alec Baldwin played Jim Webb.
Friend at Politico says Trump campaign has revoked credentials for them and other “legacy media” at Trump election event tonight. Apparently they only want their right wing echo chamber in attendance as Big Lie 2.0 is unveiled.
The Civil War begins:
Steve Bannon has set up a war room at Willard hotel in DC, where he orchestrated Jan. 6 riots, advising Trump he should just declare victory when ahead by a sufficient margin in places like Pennsylvania..
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/05/trump-declare-victory-election?s=01
They clearly want only right wing echo chamber to cover the unveiling of Big Lie 2.0.
CNN: Multiple reporters from major outlets have been denied credentials to tonight’s Trump campaign election night watch event in Florida – and it’s because of their coverage.. https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/media/trump-revokes-journalists-election-night-credentials/index.html
The civil war is beginning.
Russian bomb threats at Black precincts, U.S. Capitol shut down after arrest, major media outlets denied access to Trump HQ, and Steve Bannon sets up war room at Willard Hotel as Big Lie 2.0 unveiled.
I have been watching these people talk about challenging this election in all these ways and many more for a long time. And shutting out “legacy media” is a big part of it
They’re just waiting for trigger words from Trump. That’s how Jan. 6 happened. It’s coming tonight, unless Trump calls it off or actually wins. Stage 1 is to disrupt counting centers where Harris leads.
https://www.texastribune.org/2024/11/05/texas-election-day-trump-harris-allred-cruz-congress-legislature/
“Some Texans who requested mail-in ballots still haven’t received them”
Same here. My dad was the only one in assisted living who didn’t get a ballot, so I took him to the high school to vote. We got there around 11am; there was a short line when we left. He was happy to get a sticker.
Does the Willard Hotel in DC want to be complicit with another right-wingnut riot? They should kick him out for inciting a riot. Why the eff is he out of jail already? No matter. He’s going back for longer.
Craig
They have lost big time.
There is no way if they believed Trump had a snow balls chance that they would pass up the opportunity to gloat in front of the national media.
This isn’t the civil war, This is tears and shock.
Good News!
Jack, who still has his Harris-Walz and Vote Democrat signs out front and still hasn’t loaded the deer rifle or even tried to remember where he put the ammo.
Treated to a free lunch today:
Senate Bean Soup (The Official Recipe)
Senate Bean Soup is a historic recipe that’s always on the Senate menu for a reason. With not much more than navy beans, a ham hock, and water, you can have one of the country’s most satisfying, and famous, ham and bean soups.
Prep Time15minutes mins
Cook Time3hours hrs 30minutes mins
Servings: 4 people
Ingredients
1 pound dry navy beans
3/4 pound smoked ham hock
2 quarts cold water
1/2 teaspoon baking soda (optional, but I recommend as it will help the beans soften)
1 onion, diced
1 tablespoon butter
kosher salt, to taste (I do about 2 teaspoons)
fresh black pepper, to taste
Instructions
Rinse the navy beans and pick over. Place beans into large pot with the ham hock and two quarts of cold water and the baking soda, if using.
PRO TIP: Baking soda is not part of the official recipe, but it is my secret weapon when cooking dried beans. The alkaline pH helps soften the beans’ tough exterior and helps speed cooking a bit.
Bring just to a boil, then lower to a simmer and cook for approximately three hours (yep) in a covered pot with the lid barely cracked, stirring occasionally, until the beans have fully softened.
TIP: The water quantity should be accurate, but If the pot of beans starts to look a little dry, add more water until you have a very thick, creamy soup consistency.
Remove the ham hock and set it aside on a dish to cool. Meanwhile, melt the butter in a skillet over medium heat. Add the onion and cook, stirring, until translucent and lightly brown. (Mmm..butter and onions. Doesn’t that smell good?) Add the diced, buttery onion to the soup.
Pull meat from the ham hock into bite-sized pieces and return the meat to soup. Stir. Discard the picked-over ham bone.
Before serving, bring the soup to a boil and season with salt and pepper. Serve on its own or with a nice green salad to complement the richness of the soup.
Notes
This Senate Bean Soup recipe is based on the original. The ingredients and quantities are exactly the same, with the addition of a little optional baking soda to help soften the beans and speed the cooking a bit.
This soup will keep in the fridge for up to three days, and freezes well.
https://www.senate.gov/about/traditions-symbols/senate-bean-soup.htm
Sigh, the problem with living in a college town, somebody had the bright idea of reinventing the “I voted” sticker. You can’t read the “I Voted” Not a bold red, white and blue but washed out colors and I assume there is an I Voted but you can’t read it.
Oh well it goes on my dresser mirror like several others already there.
Jack
Now that cursive writing is no longer taught seems like we need to rethink signature verification on anything, not just ballots???
Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe counties, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:
“It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”
this country of french-fry-eating football-watchers doesn’t have the appetite for civil war
Craig
My signature when written with pen on paper doesn’t match either my drivers license or the signature I gave on the electronic pad. when voting, You can’t do your legal signature on an electronic pad unless your signature is an X
Jack
Pissed off at MSNBC. It doesn’t stream live unless you pay $40 – $80 A month for one of the massive number of channels services.
Speaking of football, I voted against the sports betting and for the Lake of the Ozarks to get a casino. At least with a later there is a chance of keeping some of the money in state. where as with sports betting it is a big pipeline out.
Jack
if you have a streaming stick they usually have free news channels bundled in
if i find a live news feed on youtube ill post it
good job, this sports betting is going to financially cripple a whole generation of young men
Exit polls coming in 5 minutes. Always fun to read media folks body language and word choices for clues if they know who won.
The market speaks.
Shares in Trump’s social media company have been halted amid a sudden and steep selloff
Ivy – I make the Senate Navy Bean Soup (official recipe) several times during the winter. I do add things like a couple bay leaves, some thyme, a few splashes of Tapatio hot sauce. I get my smoked ham hocks from the Amish market because they sell the best sizes.
Ahhhhh why did i log-on?????
🧘♂️
Sorry. Putting on my big-boy pants. As you were
CNN usually gives most detail, and Anderson has a terrible poker face.
And I could tell Hillary lost when an obviously stunned Jake Tapper reported exit polls at 5pm.
This year the gender breakdown will tell us everything.
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/a-werewolf-ripping-off-its-shirt-a-deer-wearing-sunglasses-unique-i-voted-stickers-are-bringing-fun-to-the-democratic-process-145530663.html
“A werewolf ripping off its shirt. A deer wearing sunglasses. Unique ‘I Voted’ stickers are bringing fun to the democratic process.”
“Jane Hynous, 12, of Grosse Pointe, drew the werewolf ripping off its shirt in front of an American flag.”
They are gonna start selling/collecting them like Pokémon cards.
Corey – Did you get a werewolf?
All the magat chatter about voting machines flipping votes and the only vote is a paper vote, reminds me of the Dems chatter about the same thing. “proof” that the republicans making voting machines and the software were flipping votes, or not counting votes. Dems convinced paper ballots were the only way to enforce security in voting, this four years after the “hanging chad” incident the the court formerly known as supreme decided to put the village idiot in the Oval Office.
I guess this has finally died out in the meeting halls of those claiming Democratic Party membership.
First Exit Poll report (CNN)
72% angry or dissatisfied
58% disapprove of Biden
61% optimistic about the future
Blue Bronc, good to hear. Mr. Ivy and I stopped by the butcher shop and discovered the free soup. Hottest cup of soup I ever slurped, almost burned my lips, but delicious on a suddenly on a cold day in Northern Colorado. I’d never heard of Senate Bean Soup as a thing before.
Blink my stick is fire tv. Its preloaded with prime, netflix, Disney and hulu. If you find a live feed let me know.
will do but search “news” on that fire stick
i feel like hulu, if you pay for that, should have news but am not sure
Exit poll
Good sign Democracy leading issue. Democrats lead that issue by 20 pts
My peacock has NBC live but MSNBC programs a day later. Really aggravating. I’ve got CNn on max so It’s Anderson.
i can’t handle TV ads so trailmix.cc is my most trusted name in News today
Reuters reporting Philadelphia vote total will surpass 2020 totals. Some precincts are as high as 150% of 2020 totals.
New thread at 6pm
I can see Adolf’s idiotic whining now: There can’t be more than 100%. The extra 50% are illegally voting.
Ha!
I stumbled onto Brian Williams wit Doug Brinkley on antenna tv. Guess I’ll watch that awhile
Sheep smith
Harry litman
Bink, Thanks for all the help. Learned some new tricks. Unfortunately, it didn’t solve the MSNBC problem. If you want it live the cheapest is Sling for $40.
nothing free in this World eh
I got a Roku stick just for the free 24 hour Doctor Who and gardeners world channels. It is all my TV plays.
free in quotes #Don’tTextAndDrive
Nope. At least you tube has korma cms cam so that is something.
kornacki