We know that the fence-sitters in a few states will decide this election, but is there an obvious answer for how either candidate should try to appeal to them?
How does one start a story about the undecided voter in 2024? Every decided voter is alike; every undecided voter is undecided in his own way . . . We are talking now of summer evenings in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania, in the time that the undecided voter lived there so successfully disguised to himself as a Republican child . . .
For months, I have heard breathless talk about the undecided voter, gossipped and theorized about them with my friends, but I still have no idea how to commit them to the page as anything other than a largely undefined and mysterious entity: a percentage in the polls—somewhere between three per cent nationwide and up to fifteen per cent in swing states, depending on whichever pollster you trust—or respondents in the latest focus group. After debates, they are dragged in front of cameras to deliver sober assessments about how the night’s performances swayed their decision in one way or another. (The verdicts, more often than not, involve slight shifts in the way the voter is “leaning” and give off the image of the voter as a passive drunk swaying in the back of the bar while watching the action.) These testimonials, of course, are performances in themselves. Half of them feel like they’re being delivered by former theatre kids who have realized that being an undecided voter in Scranton will get them air time on CNN; the other half feel like they were recorded at some secret C.I.A. site in the coup-happy nineteen-eighties.
[…]
This glut of questionable information, and the unyielding math of the Electoral College, has led to a kind of religious relationship between the punditry and the undecided voter. We punctuate nearly everything that happens in either campaign with statements like “What really matters is how all this will play in the Upper Peninsula,” which feels as dutiful as a quarterback giving all glory to God after he’s won the Super Bowl. We know the undecided voter will decide our destiny, but we cannot conjure up their face, which means that we are left searching for their will in patterns that might very well be useless: opinion polls, anecdotes, and the most convincing of those television testimonials.
I admit that I’m being a bit unfair. It’s easy to take up the calm position in the political-talk wars and declare, with all the detached confidence of a bodhisattva, that we actually know nothing at all. The job of defining the undecideds is thankless and yields mostly noise, but it also carries the promise of uncovering critical information about the outcomes of our elections.
The press aren’t the only people who are obsessed with undecided voters, either. Despite what more conspiracy-minded people might think about our powers of coördination and the manufacturing of consent, we mostly just follow the leads of the campaigns. And if you just tuned in to the race in the past few weeks, you would be forgiven for confusing Harris—who has touted endorsements from Dick Cheney, Liz Cheney, and a handful of former Reagan staffers—with an anti-Trump Republican. The debate between Trump and Harris would have reinforced this feeling, because even if you, like most of the country, believe that Harris won the debate, the most memorable policy lines often came in the form of feints. “Tim Walz and I are both gun owners,” Harris told Trump. “We’re not taking anybody’s guns away.” The moment was pure Harris 2024: a well-delivered and forceful denial of her more liberal past—in this case, the gun-control measures that she did, in fact, champion in her 2019 primary campaign—that falls apart at the slightest touch. Harris wants to require universal background checks and, according to her Web site, will “support red flag laws that keep guns out of the hands of dangerous people.” These are sensible policies, but during her most public moments, whether during her speech at the Democratic National Convention or during this debate, she did not mention her future plans for gun control at all, despite the fact that an overwhelming majority of Democratic voters support actually preventing some people from buying guns.
The strategy that has emerged and will likely continue for Harris until Election Day seems to be this: stay light on policy, never say anything that could be construed as too progressive or woke, and wait for Trump to remind voters why they should never let him anywhere near the White House. Whether this is the right strategy is not really my concern here. It seems that the election will be close regardless of what either candidate does between now and November 5th; any theories about what will ultimately decide the contest in swing states will likely be post hoc and strung together by thin threads of an alluring, though probably unrelated, narrative. But I do wonder why the Harris campaign and so many within the punditry automatically equate an appeal to undecided voters with conspicuous moves to the right, including, in Cheney’s case, celebrating the endorsement of one of the most reviled right-wing figures of the past fifty years? Each person has one vote, which means that winning over the theoretical Dick Cheney fan who was waffling on Trump matters only if all these nods to the right don’t alienate other voters. What is the evidence, for example, that scooting to the right on immigration will bring in those undecided voters? What is the evidence, for that matter, that undecided voters are all centrists who need to be constantly flattered? Perhaps the most visible and organized coalition of undecided voters, for example, are Muslim and Arab Americans who are threatening to stay home or vote third party unless Harris changes her stance on the war in Gaza. Do their votes not count the same as those of the centrist swing voter? And even if we accept that, yes, the theoretical centrist voter matters more, do we actually know if a few batted eyelashes in their direction on immigration or inflation will actually lead to a vote for Harris? A poll from early August found that forty-two per cent of voters in three battleground states think Harris is “too liberal.” Do we really know the magic combination of words and ads that will change their minds without alienating other voters with other concerns? Or will they conclude that regardless of how much they might find Trump personally distasteful, they just can’t trust a Democratic President?
What seems far more likely is that the theories of the undecided voter are not much more than a mirror for the preferred politics of the people doing the theorizing. Some might point to the Uncommitted Movement and the war in Gaza and find the voices they need to argue that the election will swing on a large Arab and Muslim population in Michigan. Others will warn that appealing to centrist former Trump voters necessitates a shift away from some of Biden’s more left-leaning economic policies, which, of course, are also the same policies that these pundits happen to personally disagree with. There is no question that these undecided voters will have an outsized effect on the election, but I do not think there is any one theory that can be confidently stated for winning them over, let alone acted upon. Better to just give up on all the triangulations and junk math and let these actual undecided voters get to know what you stand for and not just who stands by you.
Yep, those undecideds are flopping around. Today’s pollercoaster swings up for Trump in Sunbelt.
You can’t lose when Sam Elliot is narrating. Latest from the Lincoln Project…
So, if there exist those who are truly undecided at this point, they must have concerns about Kamala’s experience, since her resumé might not be familiar to them, so you, Dear Reader, can inform them casually:
Prosecutor, DA, AG, Senator, VP
The contrast with the professional flim-flam man should be clear enough
also, he’s insane
Harris/Walz 2024 Make History 🇺🇸
The line that I heard this morning about undecided voters is that unlike those supporting Chickenshit or Harris for specific reasons, each undecided voter is undecided for his or her own reasons. How do you address that – trying to fill a varied and unknown lack of sufficient information to make a decision?
So fall is here. First mulching of falling leaves was yesterday. And we’re predicted to get some rain over the next 3-4 days. Definitely welcome.
And it looks like Netanyahu has every intention of broadening and lengthening the war…and his approval in Israel is rising. I do not get that last part.
can’t beat that last line by Sam in the LP ad:
“time to be a man and vote for a woman”
that alone would make a good 10 sec. spot, billboard and a bumpersticker.
“his approval in Israel is rising. I do not get that last part.”
pogo, probably polled only those in safe zones (that is if there are any safe zones left over there).
Those improved numbers for Trump in the Sunbelt ould be an assassination bounce. These polls were in the field right after that. Might not last, the first one didn’t. How bizzare! A campaign where we must factor in such a thing.
Are undecideds really undecided, or are many of them just not into politics? It’s not the same folks in every poll, and I’m wondering about the scientific soundness of polls. I’ve ignored all texts and pop-ups asking how I would vote. Who are the folks answering questions, or answering their phones?
“DNC calls Trump ‘chicken’ for not accepting second debate in billboard campaign”
“The mobile billboard, which features Trump’s face on a chicken, will be deployed outside of his rally in Indiana, Pa. on Monday. Separate billboards will be set up across the city, according to the DNC.”
He’s not gonna do it unless he wants to do it. In his fetid brain, he has something Dems want (another debate), and he has the power to withhold that thing.
What might make him do it is JD’s debate performance. If he’s too good (in Adolf’s mind), he’ll say JD was bad and he had no choice but to fix things by winning a debate against Harris ~again~ because he’ll feel threatened, and can say he wasn’t chicken.
If JD is actually bad, vaguely human, and very hateful, Adolf can just blame everything on JD, and stick with the story he’s telling himself and his shrinking cult, that he didn’t poop the bed in the first debate.
Trump is supposed to be speaking in Michigan again this Friday. One of the places he is supposed to be speaking at is a place called “FALK productions” in Walker, Mi. which is near Grand Rapids. They supposedly have a Facebook and Instagram page. I went to their Facebook page to see if there was any reaction yet to them hosting Trump on Friday. Their Facebook page was down, as if it no longer existed. They probably received a lot of grief over the news that Trump was coming there and they had to shut down their Facebook page due to a highly negative response.
Poobah, Aside from GA, NV, NC & NM are there any sunbelt states in play? In AZ and NC, statewide races have margins of 6 (NV Senate) and 10 (NC Gov) favoring Dems. You may have your finger on that assassination bump phenomenon.
Pogo, not really but I hold on to FL emerging. Harris camp must think so, unless a head fake. They are doing tv ads there and sent mhoff last week to The Villages
Today’s NYT poll showing Trump +5 in AZ had a sample that was +8 GOP on party registration. The 2020 vote was +4.7 GOP. I don’t see the case for the GOP almost doubling their margin in vote share advantage, relative to 2020.
Similarly, in NC the 2020 vote was +3 Dem in party registration. The NYT poll’s likely voter sample today is dead even on D/R party registration.
As Shohei Ohtani became the first player in baseball’s 50-50 club, he couldn’t keep his greatness simple.
Since 1920, when the sport started recognizing RBI, no player had ever produced Ohtani’s statistical cocktail of two steals, three homers, five extra-base hits, six total hits and 10 RBI.
As they said in the article, he is playing at such a high level that he made it look like a little league game where one player can totally dominate the lesser talented kids around him, except these are the best players in the world, he is that much better.
It should be a fun October in Dodger land.
Jack
It seems like New York Times is weighting their samples to account for hidden Trump vote that did show up in 2020 and 2016. Maybe that’s a smart move, but if that’s what they’re doing I wish they would just say so.
Poobah, oughta split the difference. AZ SOS shows a 6.31 advantage for republican voter registration (of 64% who register as R or D) with 33.95 % registered as “Other”. Lotta wiggle room there since there ain’t “other candidates” to draw 34% of the vote.
That idea of yours seems right to me. Biden polled 2.6 % ahead of Chickenshit going into the booths in 2020 and won by .3%. That would result in a 2.3% hidden vote. The math is troublesome, though, and the AZ voter suppression act that the federal Court reinstated last week could contribute to the gap, but it’s facially neutral, so who can tell?
swing voters don’t get it…
Craig & Pogo – I think there are more likely to be hidden Harris votes this time. Women don’t need to tell their MAGAt husbands who they vote for.
The hidden votes for tRUMPsky were out of shame. However, they have been emboldened by the violence of January 6th, and the sad fact that its treasonous instigator has paid zero consequences. I don’t think they are hiding their support now.
The hidden Harris vote comes from folks who are afraid of their bat-crap crazy neighbors, family, or spouse.
I get USPS advanced notice of mail before it arrives. Today, I get to try to get a Dem mailer out before anyone else sees it. Unfortunately, the mail carrier and folks at the post office in this tiny town filled with tRUMP signs will see it. If it gets mis-delivered to a neighbor MAGAt (and delivery here is very unreliable), that might be unfortunate.
Craig
I think we have to remember that these polls aren’t random samples as it is almost impossible to achieve a random sample in this modern world. So what they are is bias samples hoping to approximate what a random sample might look like. This can lead to problems as the poll takers rely on their knowledge and prejudices to determine what is normal. When a poll tells me only 75% 0f black voters are supporting Kamala? Really? In the last couple of weeks I’ve looked into the cross tabs of the NYT national polls and that is what they said.
Kamala is going to get 90%+ of the black vote, Biden got around 95%. Yeah there is a large margin of error but still…
Jack
Craig, I’m sure she made other valuable contributions to the campaign, /snark.
Just a thought, In a world where 100s of millions of dollars flow back and forth that is just pocket change.
Jack
I find myself in an interesting situation, I don’t know if I will bother voting, I didn’t in the primary, didn’t know any of the local candidates and didn’t have an opinion. In the general election, my vote for president doesn’t count. I can rely on my fellow citizens to vote for initiative petitions that I support then put in office politicians that will work hard to overturn them. Even if the Democrats knew how to field a qualified candidate, the suburbs are so scared or envious of the big bad city that they will vote for nut case Maga Republicans. As to the local races, don’t have a clue.
It is kinda strange but I’m somewhat indifferent this year. For me this year voting will be a chore, a bit like eating your spinach .
Jack
*
NEWSMAX: What’s your most important issue as a Pennsylvania voter?
TRUMP FAN: The illegal immigration into this country
NEWSMAX: How is it hurting you?
TRUMP FAN: It’s not. It’s just the principle of everybody coming in and getting free stuff and taking stuff away from hard-working Americans
jack – What happens if you aren’t the only one who doesn’t bother?
I registered as unaffiliated (because I was afraid to register Dem), so I couldn’t vote in the primary here. Voting on Election Day will be a pain, as it involves driving to another town, even though I live in the county seat; my precinct is country. Found out that they do have early voting and I can vote in town for that; it’s still a drive, but no highways.
The folks taking stuff from workers would be the BILLIONAIRES! and I guess Elon came here legally.
This is something Dems need to hammer home. It’s not brown folks, it’s the ultra wealthy.
Not enough is being made of the great to SS and Medicare, and all of the times tRUMPsky and Republicans have tried to destroy it.
“Far-right plans, endorsed by Project 2025’s authors, to increase the full retirement age would cut benefits for nearly three-quarters of Americans and threaten low- and moderate-income workers with economic insecurity once they leave the workforce.”
Project 2025 Don’t let it happen to you!
Here’s a novel idea for the Trump campaign. Go back to persuading voters instead of trying to rig the system the system…
Mike McDonnell, a state senator in Nebraska who is the key holdout on the GOP effort to change electoral vote rules, just issued a statement today saying it’s too late & he doesn’t support a change. It’s tough to see it passing without McDonnell.
Here’s an interesting little article from WaPo showing different electoral scenarios, running from a tie to a 36 point win for Harris to a 33 point win for Chickenshit (2016 redux).
This is the tie.
I don’t suppose CS will be calling Maine’s governor to try and get ME to do away with splitting their EVs – the Governor being a female and a Democrat.
Good news
My IRA is up 20% year over year, Jim Beam whisky is the same price as it was 5 years ago, It has never been easier to “eat high on the hog” forget the bacon or ribs. Pork loins are the cheapest cut of meat same price as 5 years ago, cheaper than 20 years ago. Jimmy Dean sausage the same price for the last 10 years. .
You spend 15 years as a regular on a political website and you can’t take a half an hour to vote?
Don’t be an asshole
it’s so insulting to all of us that care that you wear you indifference like a badge of honor. Glad you’re doing well, you’re not everybody
On now: Trump roundtable lying to farmers about China (and other stuff too)..
Observe women: you can’t trust or rely on men to support you, i encourage you to get every friend, daughter, niece, granddaughter, etc. to the polls or we lose to “why bother, doesn’t effect me” logic
Service-people that haven’t seen their family in months sitting in Poland waiting for orders, you can’t bother to vote, OK
Other American service people built a FLOATING relief dock to try and deliver aid to civilians trapped in a warzone only to see all their hard work dashed against the rocks, you can’t bother voting
Stupid bastard. From USDA.
In 2022, the total value of all U.S. agricultural and related products exported to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) reached a record $40.9 billion, an increase of 14.5 percent compared to the previous year. The PRC was again the largest market for U.S. agricultural and related exports. The export values reached in 2022 come after significant effort to rebuild the market for U.S. agriculture since 2018 when exports were $13.2 billion. Products in the “bulk” category like soybeans and corn dominate the percentage share of U.S. ag. exports though “consumer-oriented” products like beef, pork, poultry, dairy, and tree nuts play an increasingly important role. Top 5 U.S. export categories to the PRC in 2022 included soybeans ($17.9 billion), corn ($5.3 billion), cotton ($2.9 billion), beef and beef products ($2.2 billion), and coarse grains ($1.8 billion). In 2022, the U.S. imported $9.5 billion in agricultural and related products from the PRC, a 9.5 percent increase from 2021.
On the other hand, the US imported $6.4B from China in Agricultural products. US exports in the same category were $35.8B net Ag exports to China – $29.4B. I wonder how tariffs might affect that?
Remember, CS is speaking to farmers today to pitch his tariff horseshit.
“I’m somewhat indifferent this year. For me this year voting will be a chore, a bit like eating your spinach .”
Jack, as popeye would say: eat that spinach. it will make a better man of ya.
his actual quote:
I am strong to the finich…Cause I eats me spinach. I have had all I can stand I cant stands no more! I yam what I yam and dats all what I yam. If I’m not me, who am I. And If I’m somebody else, why do I look like me? I’ll take you all on one at a time! I’m strong to the finish ’cause I eats me spinach.
Bink
In my world the election is 6 weeks in the past. I’m just waiting for the rest of the world to catch up. I’m part of the 90% out there who live in a one party world. My vote doesn’t count and I’m not going to pretend it does. Right now, in my world, voting is like yelling at the tv while watching the football game, yelling was fun when I was young but I don’t do it anymore. The act of voting is much more than just marking a ballot. An ignorant vote is worse than no vote and I’m totally ignorant about the local candidates, not sure how to become informed. As I said on the national level my vote doesn’t count.
It is why I’m questioning if it is even worth my time and given how little value my time is worth these days. (shrug)
As I said it is a strange position to be in given that I started dabbling in politics back around 1980 when I was an poll worker for the 1980 general election. I’ve been around politics on the local level in some form ever since. Until 3 years ago when I moved.
My final thought is I’m 70 years old, I’m tired of pushing that rock up the hill. If the American people want to vote for Trump, they know who he is, they want him.
Then “God Bless” it is their decision.
But if I vote or not won’t make a damn bit of difference.
Jack
Those are thoughts best shared with your motivated liberal pals AFTER the fucking election
not a month before
Ok you go cook your pork, i’ll keep trying to help save the country, bon appetit 👋
I hear ya Jack, and I’m in the trumpiest state in 2020. But I vote anyway to try and keep as many Rs off the School Board, Water Board and County Commission as I can and cast a throwaway vote for the dem candidates for Governor, Pres and US House and Senate. Plus, if the folks in the Rust Belt and Sun Belt decide that CS is the best alternative, when he fucks shit up I can tell my UK buddy that it ain’t my fault.
Blue, I think that singer is Jesse Welles, a genius lyricist and he puts his thoughts to music. He’s all over YouTube with many songs…he is great.
Way to protect Nebraska’s blue dot! Nice to see a Republican with a spine…mostly because his constituents held his feet to the fire, but still.
Dex – Yep, that’s Jesse. Commenting on the weird world in which we live; vaping, WalMart, the bs of the MSM, etc. Reminds me a bit of John Prine.
I’m thinking that all who are contemplating not going out to vote because of being in a solid red state need to consider that the women’s vote this year stands a chance of being massive because of abortion (remember Kansas?) and this vote stands a chance of actually flipping some red states. Nobody can predict what the turnout will be. That s why I’ll be throwing in my blue vote in what in any other year might be a wasted vote here in SC. I’m voting, because I think women are going to be a deciding factor.
Jack is just pissing into the punchbowl in the middle of the party because he wants everyone feel to as powerless as he does
Well, i’ll tell you, Dear Reader, you may have an infinitesimally small amount of power, but it’s more than you’ll have when you’re dead, so USE IT
GET. OUT. THE. VOTE. Let’s do this 🦅 🇺🇸
Also not voting this year: Tony, Xrep, Granny, Unlikely, CBob, Survivor, Yo Soy, Bob Marley…
i’ll be first in line for the kind of ticket we never get in national elections- two regular, career, empathic human beings with middle class roots. I like Kamala & Tim, i prefer their policies to the alternative, and i’m eager to vote for them, and responsible sane adults down ballot, let’s go 🇺🇸
We’re Not Going Back
i heard this and was wondering how there was an Otis Redding track i haven’t heard
not Otis Redding
tRUMP Media down to $12.15 at today’s closing.
bId, so CS is stuck with his shares, right?
Bink on fire tonight. good call on that RedClay Strays call. Does sound very Otisish. Nice song.
LP mini report. Played at the Bluebird Cafe tonight. Says the crowd appreciated his art.
Sturg, yep.
Good thing we got those walls.
—King of Jericho
i’m just gonna shake shake shake shake shake
shake it off whoa oh
(peak disco is just so good [late disco not so much])
the road to 2024 leads straight though that Philadelphia sound, all aboard 🚂 🇺🇸
winner, best song of the 20th century
give me your tired and hungry yearning to be free
home stretch, let’s go
cast it into the fire
i got limited shoulder space, Vote Harris/Walz 2024 Bring Two Friends ✌️ 🇺🇸
The Unknowability of the Undecided Voter | The New Yorker
We know that the fence-sitters in a few states will decide this election, but is there an obvious answer for how either candidate should try to appeal to them?
Yep, those undecideds are flopping around. Today’s pollercoaster swings up for Trump in Sunbelt.
You can’t lose when Sam Elliot is narrating. Latest from the Lincoln Project…
So, if there exist those who are truly undecided at this point, they must have concerns about Kamala’s experience, since her resumé might not be familiar to them, so you, Dear Reader, can inform them casually:
Prosecutor, DA, AG, Senator, VP
The contrast with the professional flim-flam man should be clear enough
also, he’s insane
Harris/Walz 2024 Make History 🇺🇸
The line that I heard this morning about undecided voters is that unlike those supporting Chickenshit or Harris for specific reasons, each undecided voter is undecided for his or her own reasons. How do you address that – trying to fill a varied and unknown lack of sufficient information to make a decision?
So fall is here. First mulching of falling leaves was yesterday. And we’re predicted to get some rain over the next 3-4 days. Definitely welcome.
And it looks like Netanyahu has every intention of broadening and lengthening the war…and his approval in Israel is rising. I do not get that last part.
can’t beat that last line by Sam in the LP ad:
“time to be a man and vote for a woman”
that alone would make a good 10 sec. spot, billboard and a bumpersticker.
“his approval in Israel is rising. I do not get that last part.”
pogo, probably polled only those in safe zones (that is if there are any safe zones left over there).
Those improved numbers for Trump in the Sunbelt ould be an assassination bounce. These polls were in the field right after that. Might not last, the first one didn’t. How bizzare! A campaign where we must factor in such a thing.
Are undecideds really undecided, or are many of them just not into politics? It’s not the same folks in every poll, and I’m wondering about the scientific soundness of polls. I’ve ignored all texts and pop-ups asking how I would vote. Who are the folks answering questions, or answering their phones?
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4893567-dnc-calls-trump-chicken-for-not-accepting-second-debate-in-billboard-campaign/
“DNC calls Trump ‘chicken’ for not accepting second debate in billboard campaign”
“The mobile billboard, which features Trump’s face on a chicken, will be deployed outside of his rally in Indiana, Pa. on Monday. Separate billboards will be set up across the city, according to the DNC.”
He’s not gonna do it unless he wants to do it. In his fetid brain, he has something Dems want (another debate), and he has the power to withhold that thing.
What might make him do it is JD’s debate performance. If he’s too good (in Adolf’s mind), he’ll say JD was bad and he had no choice but to fix things by winning a debate against Harris ~again~ because he’ll feel threatened, and can say he wasn’t chicken.
If JD is actually bad, vaguely human, and very hateful, Adolf can just blame everything on JD, and stick with the story he’s telling himself and his shrinking cult, that he didn’t poop the bed in the first debate.
Trump is supposed to be speaking in Michigan again this Friday. One of the places he is supposed to be speaking at is a place called “FALK productions” in Walker, Mi. which is near Grand Rapids. They supposedly have a Facebook and Instagram page. I went to their Facebook page to see if there was any reaction yet to them hosting Trump on Friday. Their Facebook page was down, as if it no longer existed. They probably received a lot of grief over the news that Trump was coming there and they had to shut down their Facebook page due to a highly negative response.
Poobah, Aside from GA, NV, NC & NM are there any sunbelt states in play? In AZ and NC, statewide races have margins of 6 (NV Senate) and 10 (NC Gov) favoring Dems. You may have your finger on that assassination bump phenomenon.
Pogo, not really but I hold on to FL emerging. Harris camp must think so, unless a head fake. They are doing tv ads there and sent mhoff last week to The Villages
Today’s NYT poll showing Trump +5 in AZ had a sample that was +8 GOP on party registration. The 2020 vote was +4.7 GOP. I don’t see the case for the GOP almost doubling their margin in vote share advantage, relative to 2020.
Similarly, in NC the 2020 vote was +3 Dem in party registration. The NYT poll’s likely voter sample today is dead even on D/R party registration.
Jamie
A little Dodger news for you.
As they said in the article, he is playing at such a high level that he made it look like a little league game where one player can totally dominate the lesser talented kids around him, except these are the best players in the world, he is that much better.
It should be a fun October in Dodger land.
Jack
It seems like New York Times is weighting their samples to account for hidden Trump vote that did show up in 2020 and 2016. Maybe that’s a smart move, but if that’s what they’re doing I wish they would just say so.
Poobah, oughta split the difference. AZ SOS shows a 6.31 advantage for republican voter registration (of 64% who register as R or D) with 33.95 % registered as “Other”. Lotta wiggle room there since there ain’t “other candidates” to draw 34% of the vote.
That idea of yours seems right to me. Biden polled 2.6 % ahead of Chickenshit going into the booths in 2020 and won by .3%. That would result in a 2.3% hidden vote. The math is troublesome, though, and the AZ voter suppression act that the federal Court reinstated last week could contribute to the gap, but it’s facially neutral, so who can tell?
swing voters don’t get it…
Craig & Pogo – I think there are more likely to be hidden Harris votes this time. Women don’t need to tell their MAGAt husbands who they vote for.
The hidden votes for tRUMPsky were out of shame. However, they have been emboldened by the violence of January 6th, and the sad fact that its treasonous instigator has paid zero consequences. I don’t think they are hiding their support now.
The hidden Harris vote comes from folks who are afraid of their bat-crap crazy neighbors, family, or spouse.
I get USPS advanced notice of mail before it arrives. Today, I get to try to get a Dem mailer out before anyone else sees it. Unfortunately, the mail carrier and folks at the post office in this tiny town filled with tRUMP signs will see it. If it gets mis-delivered to a neighbor MAGAt (and delivery here is very unreliable), that might be unfortunate.
Craig
I think we have to remember that these polls aren’t random samples as it is almost impossible to achieve a random sample in this modern world. So what they are is bias samples hoping to approximate what a random sample might look like. This can lead to problems as the poll takers rely on their knowledge and prejudices to determine what is normal. When a poll tells me only 75% 0f black voters are supporting Kamala? Really? In the last couple of weeks I’ve looked into the cross tabs of the NYT national polls and that is what they said.
Kamala is going to get 90%+ of the black vote, Biden got around 95%. Yeah there is a large margin of error but still…
Jack
CNN is reporting that Melania was paid $237,500 for her sole campaign appearance other than the convention. It’s a non-stop grift.. https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1838245108736532537?t=AJ4tkcwFkdIXuY8rYaKdxA&s=19
Roe wasn’t in play in 2020.
Craig, I’m sure she made other valuable contributions to the campaign, /snark.
Just a thought, In a world where 100s of millions of dollars flow back and forth that is just pocket change.
Jack
I find myself in an interesting situation, I don’t know if I will bother voting, I didn’t in the primary, didn’t know any of the local candidates and didn’t have an opinion. In the general election, my vote for president doesn’t count. I can rely on my fellow citizens to vote for initiative petitions that I support then put in office politicians that will work hard to overturn them. Even if the Democrats knew how to field a qualified candidate, the suburbs are so scared or envious of the big bad city that they will vote for nut case Maga Republicans. As to the local races, don’t have a clue.
It is kinda strange but I’m somewhat indifferent this year. For me this year voting will be a chore, a bit like eating your spinach .
Jack
*
NEWSMAX: What’s your most important issue as a Pennsylvania voter?
TRUMP FAN: The illegal immigration into this country
NEWSMAX: How is it hurting you?
TRUMP FAN: It’s not. It’s just the principle of everybody coming in and getting free stuff and taking stuff away from hard-working Americans
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1838264429055442960?t=9IIglyMJ5D_qSzq8ajrODw&s=19
jack – What happens if you aren’t the only one who doesn’t bother?
I registered as unaffiliated (because I was afraid to register Dem), so I couldn’t vote in the primary here. Voting on Election Day will be a pain, as it involves driving to another town, even though I live in the county seat; my precinct is country. Found out that they do have early voting and I can vote in town for that; it’s still a drive, but no highways.
The folks taking stuff from workers would be the BILLIONAIRES! and I guess Elon came here legally.
This is something Dems need to hammer home. It’s not brown folks, it’s the ultra wealthy.
Not enough is being made of the great to SS and Medicare, and all of the times tRUMPsky and Republicans have tried to destroy it.
“Far-right plans, endorsed by Project 2025’s authors, to increase the full retirement age would cut benefits for nearly three-quarters of Americans and threaten low- and moderate-income workers with economic insecurity once they leave the workforce.”
Project 2025 Don’t let it happen to you!
Here’s a novel idea for the Trump campaign. Go back to persuading voters instead of trying to rig the system the system…
Mike McDonnell, a state senator in Nebraska who is the key holdout on the GOP effort to change electoral vote rules, just issued a statement today saying it’s too late & he doesn’t support a change. It’s tough to see it passing without McDonnell.
Here’s an interesting little article from WaPo showing different electoral scenarios, running from a tie to a 36 point win for Harris to a 33 point win for Chickenshit (2016 redux).
This is the tie.
I don’t suppose CS will be calling Maine’s governor to try and get ME to do away with splitting their EVs – the Governor being a female and a Democrat.
Good news
My IRA is up 20% year over year, Jim Beam whisky is the same price as it was 5 years ago, It has never been easier to “eat high on the hog” forget the bacon or ribs. Pork loins are the cheapest cut of meat same price as 5 years ago, cheaper than 20 years ago. Jimmy Dean sausage the same price for the last 10 years. .
You spend 15 years as a regular on a political website and you can’t take a half an hour to vote?
Don’t be an asshole
it’s so insulting to all of us that care that you wear you indifference like a badge of honor. Glad you’re doing well, you’re not everybody
On now: Trump roundtable lying to farmers about China (and other stuff too)..
Observe women: you can’t trust or rely on men to support you, i encourage you to get every friend, daughter, niece, granddaughter, etc. to the polls or we lose to “why bother, doesn’t effect me” logic
Service-people that haven’t seen their family in months sitting in Poland waiting for orders, you can’t bother to vote, OK
Other American service people built a FLOATING relief dock to try and deliver aid to civilians trapped in a warzone only to see all their hard work dashed against the rocks, you can’t bother voting
Stupid bastard. From USDA.
On the other hand, the US imported $6.4B from China in Agricultural products. US exports in the same category were $35.8B net Ag exports to China – $29.4B. I wonder how tariffs might affect that?
Remember, CS is speaking to farmers today to pitch his tariff horseshit.
“I’m somewhat indifferent this year. For me this year voting will be a chore, a bit like eating your spinach .”
Jack, as popeye would say: eat that spinach. it will make a better man of ya.
his actual quote:
Montana online absentee voting system shut down over error | Elections | bozemandailychronicle.com
Ballot glitch omits Kamala Harris, temporarily halts Montana online absentee voting system
Bink
In my world the election is 6 weeks in the past. I’m just waiting for the rest of the world to catch up. I’m part of the 90% out there who live in a one party world. My vote doesn’t count and I’m not going to pretend it does. Right now, in my world, voting is like yelling at the tv while watching the football game, yelling was fun when I was young but I don’t do it anymore. The act of voting is much more than just marking a ballot. An ignorant vote is worse than no vote and I’m totally ignorant about the local candidates, not sure how to become informed. As I said on the national level my vote doesn’t count.
It is why I’m questioning if it is even worth my time and given how little value my time is worth these days. (shrug)
As I said it is a strange position to be in given that I started dabbling in politics back around 1980 when I was an poll worker for the 1980 general election. I’ve been around politics on the local level in some form ever since. Until 3 years ago when I moved.
My final thought is I’m 70 years old, I’m tired of pushing that rock up the hill. If the American people want to vote for Trump, they know who he is, they want him.
Then “God Bless” it is their decision.
But if I vote or not won’t make a damn bit of difference.
Jack
Those are thoughts best shared with your motivated liberal pals AFTER the fucking election
not a month before
Ok you go cook your pork, i’ll keep trying to help save the country, bon appetit 👋
I hear ya Jack, and I’m in the trumpiest state in 2020. But I vote anyway to try and keep as many Rs off the School Board, Water Board and County Commission as I can and cast a throwaway vote for the dem candidates for Governor, Pres and US House and Senate. Plus, if the folks in the Rust Belt and Sun Belt decide that CS is the best alternative, when he fucks shit up I can tell my UK buddy that it ain’t my fault.
Blue, I think that singer is Jesse Welles, a genius lyricist and he puts his thoughts to music. He’s all over YouTube with many songs…he is great.
Way to protect Nebraska’s blue dot! Nice to see a Republican with a spine…mostly because his constituents held his feet to the fire, but still.
Dex – Yep, that’s Jesse. Commenting on the weird world in which we live; vaping, WalMart, the bs of the MSM, etc. Reminds me a bit of John Prine.
I’m thinking that all who are contemplating not going out to vote because of being in a solid red state need to consider that the women’s vote this year stands a chance of being massive because of abortion (remember Kansas?) and this vote stands a chance of actually flipping some red states. Nobody can predict what the turnout will be. That s why I’ll be throwing in my blue vote in what in any other year might be a wasted vote here in SC. I’m voting, because I think women are going to be a deciding factor.
Jack is just pissing into the punchbowl in the middle of the party because he wants everyone feel to as powerless as he does
Well, i’ll tell you, Dear Reader, you may have an infinitesimally small amount of power, but it’s more than you’ll have when you’re dead, so USE IT
GET. OUT. THE. VOTE. Let’s do this 🦅 🇺🇸
Also not voting this year: Tony, Xrep, Granny, Unlikely, CBob, Survivor, Yo Soy, Bob Marley…
i’ll be first in line for the kind of ticket we never get in national elections- two regular, career, empathic human beings with middle class roots. I like Kamala & Tim, i prefer their policies to the alternative, and i’m eager to vote for them, and responsible sane adults down ballot, let’s go 🇺🇸
We’re Not Going Back
i heard this and was wondering how there was an Otis Redding track i haven’t heard
not Otis Redding
tRUMP Media down to $12.15 at today’s closing.
bId, so CS is stuck with his shares, right?
Bink on fire tonight. good call on that RedClay Strays call. Does sound very Otisish. Nice song.
LP mini report. Played at the Bluebird Cafe tonight. Says the crowd appreciated his art.
Sturg, yep.
Good thing we got those walls.
—King of Jericho
i’m just gonna shake shake shake shake shake
shake it off whoa oh
(peak disco is just so good [late disco not so much])
the road to 2024 leads straight though that Philadelphia sound, all aboard 🚂 🇺🇸
winner, best song of the 20th century
give me your tired and hungry yearning to be free
home stretch, let’s go
cast it into the fire
i got limited shoulder space, Vote Harris/Walz 2024 Bring Two Friends ✌️ 🇺🇸
NEW THREAD by Craig our fearless leader