Keystone Kamala!

Highly rated poll* shows all-important Pennsylvania leaning toward Harris.

USA Today/Suffolk University just released 3 polls from Pennsylvania that each paints a similar picture:

—Statewide: Harris up 49% to 46%

—just bellwhether Erie County: Harris up 48% to 44%. (Erie went for Biden by 1% in 2020.)

—just BW Northampton County: Harris up 50% to 45% (Also went for Biden by 1% in 2020.)

Best news is Harris also enjoys higher personal popularity among likely Pennsylvania voters, with 49% having a favorable opinion of the vice president, compared with 47% with an unfavorable opinion. Forty-three percent of Pennsylvania’s likely voters said they had a favorable opinion of Trump, while 54% had an unfavorable opinion.

*Suffolk polls are in top ten of 282 ranked by 538 for accuracy and transparency.

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Author: craigcrawford

Trail Mix Host. Lapsed journalist, author & retired pundit happily promoting nothing but the truth for Social Security checks.

53 thoughts on “Keystone Kamala!”

  1. KAMALA’S RADICAL POLICIES

    Attribution: Kamala’s Radical Policies by Dick Wright, PoliticalCartoons.com

  2. from *The Bulwark:

    Tim Miller breaks down a new poll that shows Harris leads Trump 49%-46% in Pennsylvania.

    *Wiki about The Bulwark:
    The Bulwark is an American center-right and anti-Trump conservative news and opinion website launched in 2018 by Sarah Longwell, with the support of Bill Kristol and Charlie Sykes. It initially launched as a news aggregator but was revamped into a news and opinion site using key staffers from the recently closed The Weekly Standard.
    History
    Following the end of publication of The Weekly Standard in December 2018, editor-in-chief Charlie Sykes said that “the murder of the Standard made it urgently necessary to create a home for rational, principled, fact-based center-right voices who were not cowed by Trumpism.” The site was created in December 2018 as a news aggregator as a project of the Defending Democracy Together Institute, a 501(c)(3) conservative advocacy group led in part by The Weekly Standard co-founder William Kristol. Several former editors and writers of The Weekly Standard soon joined the staff and within weeks of launch began publishing original news and opinion pieces. The website has frequently published pieces critical of Donald Trump and of pro-Trump elites in politics and the media.
    [continues]

  4. what Amazon had to say about it:

    From the Pulitzer Prize-winning reporters behind the 2018 bombshell New York Times exposé of then-President Trump’s finances, an explosive investigation into the history of Donald Trump’s wealth, revealing how one of the country’s biggest business failures lied his way into the White House

    Soon after announcing his first campaign for the US presidency, Donald J. Trump told a national television audience that life “has not been easy for me. It has not been easy for me.” Building on a narrative he had been telling for decades, he spun a hardscrabble fable of how he parlayed a small loan from his father into a multi-billion-dollar business and real estate empire. This feat, he argued, made him singularly qualified to lead the country. Except: None of it was true. Born to a rich father who made him the beneficiary of his own highly lucrative investments, Trump received the equivalent of more than $500 million today via means that required no business expertise whatsoever.

    Drawing on over twenty years’ worth of Trump’s confidential tax information, including the tax returns he tried to conceal, alongside business records and interviews with Trump insiders, New York Times investigative reporters Russ Buettner and Susanne Craig track Trump’s financial rise and fall, and rise and fall again. For decades, he squanders his fortunes on money losing businesses, only to be saved yet again by financial serendipity. He tacks his name above the door of every building, while taking out huge loans he’ll never repay. He obsesses over appearances, while ignoring threats to the bottom line and mounting costly lawsuits against city officials. He tarnishes the value of his name by allowing anyone with a big enough check to use it, and cheats the television producer who not only rescues him from bankruptcy but casts him as a business savant – the public image that will carry him to the White House.

    A masterpiece of narrative reporting, Lucky Loser is a meticulous examination spanning nearly a century, filled with scoops from Trump Tower, Mar-a-Lago, Atlantic City, and the set of The Apprentice. At a moment when Trump’s tether to success and power is more precarious than ever, here for the first time is the definitive true accounting of Trump and his money – what he had, what he lost, and what he has left – and the final word on the myth of Trump, the self-made billionaire.

  5. Thanks Pat for that Bulwark video on PA poll. I’m glad to see this poll getting the attention it deserves.

    For starters, it’s been a while since we’ve seen a reliable pollster in the field (Suffolk is #7 of 282 ranked by 538). but also it shows clear movement toward Harris.

    She is consolidating the Dem base of Blacks and Hispanics. Trump is now down to the levels of his 2020 loss with them. And the spike in women for her significantly outmatches his persistent but static lead among men.

    Now for her challenges in this poll — WHITE PEOPLE. She’s slightly under-performing Biden’s 2020 numbers, especially among non-college whites and over 65 who should offer some room for growth going forward.

    There’s one group seemingly beyond reach and it’s too late to do much about it: non-college or blue-collar white men. They’ve been hypnotized by a strain of reactionary anti-feminism and outright racism in right wing media that requires a long-term fix.

  6. 2024 Mystery Voters

    We are down to just 4% undecided in these recent post-debate polls. That’s about half the usual number. And what’s their top issue? Nothing.

    About a third, the highest number for any answer, say they “don’t have a top issue”. Ha, there’s a challenge for campaigns. How do you persuade voters when you don’t even know what they care about.

    And most say they’re independent, don’t lean toward either party or any ideology. They are the 2024 mystery voters, and yet could decide the outcome.

    Some of the efforts I’ve seen to identify them find they are overworked lower-middle income with kids or other responsibilities, and often more than one job, and pay attention to news on average about 5 minutes A WEEK. In other words, they seem to be unreachable, and might not even vote.

  7. NEW Morning Consult: Harris leads Trump by a record-high 6 percentage points among likely voters, 51% to 45%, up from a 3-point advantage before their debate last week. We now have a handful of polls at the week-after point clearly showing a debate bump.

  8. Some of the efforts I’ve seen to identify them find they are overworked lower-middle income with kids or other responsibilities, and often more than one job, and pay attention to news on average about 5 minutes A WEEK. In other words, they seem to be unreachable, and might not even vote.

     
    Craig, you nailed it. Also, their news comes primarily from comedy shows which induces cynicism and ridicule. Most of all, they don’t want to be in the middle of more hassles than they already have in their daily lives. They’re like, leave me out of your bullshit. 

  9. From the great Steve Rattner. Harris has Trump beat when it comes to fiscal responsibility — her proposals would add less than half of what Trump would to deficits. (Add the inflationary impact of the tariffs he’s proposing and he’s horrible for the economy).

  10. They’re just like I’m tuning out on the headlines about Diddy because I don’t have time to invest in it. 

  11. I was partially paying attention last night on msnbc to Russ and Susanne’s interview. I’m glad more such exposé stories about Trump are out before this election, as if they weren’t the last one. But it’s late in the game to make a difference with his voters. As one woman in the Ted Koppel piece two Sundays ago said, “I don’t care what he does in his personal life.” Hey Lady, in case you missed it, the Grifter has no personal life. Everything he says or does is a scam or fraud and comes out of your pocket. Sadly, they don’t seem to mind.

  13. https://www.npr.org/2024/09/16/g-s1-23363/sean-diddy-combs-faces-federal-charges-in-new-york
    “Sean “Diddy” Combs was arrested late Monday in New York, where he faces a sealed criminal indictment, prosecutors announced late Monday.”

    https://www.tmz.com/2024/09/17/diddy-arrest-sex-trafficking-indictment-charged/

    “Diddy has been charged with 3 counts — racketeering conspiracy, sex trafficking by force, fraud or coercion, and transportation to engage in prostitution.”

    RICO!

    “According to the indictment, from 2008 to the present, members of the Combs enterprise allegedly engaged in sex trafficking, forced labor, interstate transportation for purposes of prostitution, coercion and enticement to engage in prostitution, narcotics offenses, kidnapping, arson, bribery and obstruction of justice.”

    2008?

    “The indictment mentions the now-famous “Freak off” parties … calling them “elaborate and produced sex performances that Combs arranged, directed, masturbated during, and often electronically recorded.”

    Any appearances by tRUMPsky and/or his sons?

    “The indictment references what was seized during the raids at Diddy’s homes in Beverly Hills and Miami — various freak off supplies, including narcotics and more than 1,000 bottles of baby oil and lubricant. They also seized firearms, including 3 AR-15s with defaced serial numbers and a drum magazine.”

    A drum magazine? Is that slang?

    “Aubrey O’Day, who had a contentious relationship with Diddy during filming of “Making the Band,” tells TMZ, “I never thought I would see this day. We all buried this inside of us in order to be able to keep going.”

    Well, Don Junior had a relationship with O’Day. That’s the only shirtail-relationship to Diddy I found, so far.

  15. A drum magazine is a high capacity clip from this website that sells them, they seem to come in clips of 50 and 100 rounds. Lots of fire power. 
    If you have a few thousand dollars to waste in and afternoon, it looks like it could be a lot of fun on the firing range. 
    Jack

  16. Now that I’ve been searching for “drum magazines, and went to a site that sells them, I’m wondering how that will affect my google ads.
    I may get some interesting shit.
    Jack

  17. Craig one of the predebate polls you posted, had Kamala only getting 75% of the black vote. Given that Biden got 95% it seemed unlikely that she will get any less. I can’t remember which poll but she had a lead in it. At the time, I got my calculator out and did some adjusting for the low black vote and her numbers went over 50%.
    I’m beginning to think she is kicking ass and nobody wants to say it for fear they will jinx it. 
    Jack
     

  18. So Dumbass and JDouche are doubling down on their stupidity, claiming that “Comrade” Harris’s (& Walz’) rhetoric (consisting of quoting Dumbass’ prior comments) is raising the political temp and causing bullets to fly.  Let that sink in… Make sense of it if you can.   Okay, now let me get half a dozen glazed, half a dozen cinnamon, half  a dozen iced with sprinkles and half a dozen plain cake.  JDouche might practice that in case he feels the need to be a regular guy dropping into a donut shop – dressed in a mini me Dumbass suit and with a camera crew..  

  19. Can Adolf & JD be charged for inciting hate crimes?  Government buildings were evacuated because of bomb threats, caused by Don-Old lying and JD magnifying the lie. 

  21. Some of the efforts I’ve seen to identify them find they are overworked lower-middle income with kids or other responsibilities, and often more than one job, and pay attention to news on average about 5 minutes A WEEK.

    I’m having a challenge with my peeps in this category. They hear from me a lot. The best I can say is they’re woke but they ain’t outta bed.

    In truth, they are working many hours a week, third shift, catching as many hours of sleep as possible during our daytime hours. Maybe the pollsters need to be calling them at 2 am, not 2 pm.

  22. These are very happy numbers today.  Brinkley the historian said earlier today if Penna goes red, Georgia is a must get for Harris.  And I believe that North Carolina crackpot governor candidate Mark Robinson who is trailing badly but still yelling how some people “need to be dead” is instead killing the Trump vote in The Tarheel state.

  24. “Can Adolf & JD be charged for inciting hate crimes?”

    BiD, I’m wondering if we can charge their campaign pocketbooks with how much their hate rhetoric has cost citizens of Ohio in addition to the millions of taxpayer dollars Trump’s little golfing games have cost.  secret service says a golf course is the hardest place for them to secure safety for their protectees.  He could at least hold off for the next 49 days.  I wish some enterprising reporter would tote up how much it’s amounted to for USSS to cover just his whims excluding campaign events.  it’s been reported that they’re even overcharged for the rooms they have at his various properties. 

  26. Kamala at NABJ now..

    I really like this answer.. 

    “Black men are like any other voting group. You’ve gotta earn their vote. So, I’m working to earn the vote, not assuming I’m going to have it because I am Black.”

    — Kamala Harris at the NABJ on economic policies aimed at supporting Black men

  31. An interesting opinion piece from the Missouri Independent, one of the new journalism sites, mostly made up of folks laid off by major dailies in Stlouis and Kansas City. They are one of the news organizations that get money from me.

    Conversations about how to combat misinformation often focus on the need for better fact-checking and education. However, our discovery illustrates the deeper but overlooked drivers behind voters’ tolerance and support for factually inaccurate statements. The findings suggest that misinformation survives not only due to voters’ “gullibility” but their moral calculations about whether partisan ends justify the means.
    If voters are deliberately choosing to support misinformation because it aligns with their partisan perspectives, then providing factual corrections will not be enough to protect the democratic norm of grounding public policies in objective facts.
    What still isn’t known
    Our research leaves critical questions about how to combat such moral flexibility and its consequences.
    To be sure, we do not see such moral flexibility as categorically wrong. As a society, for instance, we tend to think that telling kids that Santa Claus exists is unproblematic, because doing so protects certain values – such as children’s innocence and imagination.
    But when it comes to public debate on an issue that should be based on objective evidence, moral flexibility limits the extent to which partisan groups can come to an agreement about facts, let alone what policy to derive from them.
    To read it all

    Jack

  32. Kamala needs to do more sit downs like that, she is good at it.
    Maybe organize some old fashion 60’s style meet the press, get 4 major journalists in the room with a moderator and answer questions.
    Jack

  34. I agree, jack.  She has the ability to listen to questions and the intelligence to respond to them instead of wandering off into fantasy land on unrelated topics. I’d like to see her hit the Sunday shows Dumbass and his mini me have hit.  A couple or three town halls would be good as well. 

    BTW, how about those pager bombs? I know Hezbollah is blaming Israel – who could have guessed that – but is there any word from outside sources on who’s responsible?

  35. Israel exemplifying “too clever by half”, as if anyone else tries shit like that 😆 

    i suppose someone could assert it is as targeted an attack as possible

    They are a tech-leader, do they realize how hard it’s going to be to export their goods now?

    Nut job conspiracy theorists are going to have a field day with this, so dumb

  36. Meanwhile, Ukraine targets Russian positions based on aggregated metadata, highly effective in the same ways, without the consequences of sloppy sabotage 

  37. Bink, from the WaPo live updates:

    Trump plans to hold a town-hall event in Flint, Mich., on Tuesday, marking his return to the campaign trail after a potential assassination attempt Sunday at his golf club in West Palm Beach, Fla.

    There’s that phrase again.
    I’d certainly agree that Israel will have a REALLY hard time exporting tech to Lebanon.

  38. There was no attempt!  
     
    trump likes to call “the media” (corp. news media) the “enemy of the people”, but they need each other, like symbiotic parasites, both weakening each other (while keeping each other alive)

  40. Jack, Pogo – I agree that her interview today, and the one-on-one she did with Philadelphia TV station couple days ago do demonstrate a refreshingly intelligent and mature thinker who can stick to a topic for more than a nanosecond. My only critique would be to tighten the answers and get more quickly to the point without such long predicates and preambles. She actually reminds me of Q&A with Obama, who spoke in complete paragraphs, and lots of them. Not every answer needs to be a term paper. But she’s just fine the way she is, certainly no overhaul required. 

  42. Diddy denied bail  Will remain in fed custody.  Might get to participate in some wild sexual shit unless they put him in solitary.

  43. The numbers are moving in the right direction.  Here’s hoping they continue to do so. So long as Dumbass continues his ridiculous BS even a mild continuation of the direction the numbers are going should be enough to get her there – if, to paraphrase Mona Lisa Vito “She doesn’t fuck up.”

  47. https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/17/science/partial-lunar-eclipse-harvest-moon/index.html

    “Full harvest supermoon will also create a partial lunar eclipse”

    “The moon will enter Earth’s full shadow at 10:13 p.m. ET and exit it at 11:16 p.m. ET.”

    “If you didn’t know it were happening or even look at the moon it might not be noticeable. But the keen observer may notice the ‘top right’ corner of the moon darker than the rest of the moon,” he said via email.

  50. Bink & Pogo, 

    china ain’t no slouch either in super spy tech stuff.  maybe israel sub-contracted out to them.

  52. Sturg – Very worried about 2.0, unless Harris wins by a lot & there is a huge wave of blue in Congress.   We’ve gotta get enough votes to get rid of MAGAt Mike & make Hakeem SOTH.  Then, when Dems are in control, be prepared for the backpedaling weasels who’ve ruined their careers & sold their souls.  

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