Polls are closing now in Florida. Alaska closes Midnight ET.
Here’s my cheat sheet for what matters:
- Florida Governor: Byron Donalds — a win puts a Black MAGA Republican on track to make Florida history.
- Florida Senate: Alex Vindman vs. Angie Nixon — a test of the Democratic Party’s establishment vs. progressive divide.
- Florida House, FL-25: Jared Moskowitz — a redrawn district puts a Democratic incumbent in a much tougher fight.
- Florida House, FL-6: Randy Fine — a test of whether Trump-era MAGA politics can survive a messy GOP primary.
- Alaska Senate: Dan Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola — potentially one of Democrats’ best chances to flip a Senate seat.
- Alaska Senate: The other Dan Sullivan — watch how many votes the same-name challenger actually pulls.
- Alaska Governor: 17 candidates, four advancing — tonight is basically political musical chairs.
- Alaska House: Nick Begich — a Trump-backed Republican defending Alaska’s lone House seat.
First surprise of the night. Vindman just lost a huge county, by a lot. DSA candidate Angie Nixon running string statewide.
I’m not surprised. He’s been getting hammered on the socials for being a pro-Israel candidate, although I wasn’t sure if those doing the hammering were Florida voters.
Florida results coming in rapidly.
Kornacki Cam is on it…
She’s crushing him in Miami and Broward
He’s going to Iowa…
Corey Mills ahead.
Wasserman-Schultze survived after all
Moskowitz survives DSA challenge. just declared winner
Angie Nixon still surprising us, even as same day vote comes in
Same day vote sharply turning against Corey Mills. Looks like he’s and I guess GOP saves the seat.
Here’s Angie…
The early turnout numbers are not great news for Byron Donalds. As we have seen in recent races with black MAGA candidates the hardcore Trump voters are not excited.
Turnout is running well below recent primaries in two of Trump’s strongest counties: 13 points lower in Union and 20 points lower in Washington than in 2024. That suggests a weak MAGA turnout tonight—meaning Donalds may need an unusually large share of a smaller Republican electorate to win.
Definitely the surprise of the night. She’s crushing it.
Here’s how the race for US Senate shapes up in Florida;
Ashley Moody: The Republican incumbent was appointed to the Senate in 2025 after Marco Rubio became secretary of state, then won the GOP nomination tonight with little serious opposition. The former Florida attorney general now faces Nixon in November, in a state Republicans have increasingly dominated since 2016.
Angie Nixon: A Jacksonville native, Nixon is a Florida state representative, former union organizer and longtime progressive activist. She has served in the state House since 2020 and ran as a Democratic populist focused on labor, childcare, consumer prices and economic inequality. Her upset over Alex Vindman is significant because she won despite being dramatically outspent.