Craig Crawford

Sixty Days to the Midterms…

Labor Day weekend marks the campaign kickoff. Budgets are set, and ad time is purchased. Operations wind down chasing the mythical “persuadable” middle to focus on identifying their actual supporters for GOTV (Get-Out-The-Vote) drives.

This year, Democrats face a special, exhausting challenge: educating millions of voters who are currently under siege by Republican suppression efforts. It is no longer just about getting out the vote; it is about giving voters a survival guide to actually cast a ballot under fire.

What are the most blatant suppression tactics you are seeing in your state, and how are local groups fighting back? Drop your frontline reports in comments throughout the campaign.

No hedging. No pundit fog. Just your best prediction. (Add independents to the party where you expect them to caucus).

Prediction Resources:

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball
• The Cook Political Report
• Inside Elections

WIN these 10 Senate races, and Democrats need just 12 Republicans to convict on impeachment.

Labor Day is the kickoff. Here’s the goal: 55 senators in the Democratic caucus.

That would leave Democrats just 12 votes short of the 67 needed to convict a president on impeachment.

Skeptics will say that sounds like a hell of a lot of Republicans. Maybe. But we already know more than that privately hate his guts, and a humiliating midterm defeat would turn him from a feared president into a defenseless lame duck.

With Labor Day kickoff approaching, I am focusing on winning these 10 Senate races and building a 55-45 Democratic caucus majority. Let’s go!

• Alaska: Mary Peltola (D) vs. Dan Sullivan (R)
• Georgia: Jon Ossoff (D) vs. Mike Collins (R)
• Iowa: Josh Turek (D) vs. Ashley Hinson (R)
• Maine: Troy Jackson (D) vs. Susan Collins (R)
• Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)
• Nebraska: Dan Osborn (I) vs. Pete Ricketts (R)
• North Carolina: Roy Cooper (D) vs. Michael Whatley (R)
• Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Jon Husted (R)
• South Carolina: Dr. Annie Andrews (D) vs. Darline Graham (R)
• Texas: James Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R)

100K strong and a lawmaker answered. Huge credit to Republican TN State Rep. Todd Warner for stepping up and vowing to introduce the bill renaming Nashville Airport after Dolly Parton.

Let’s rename something for somebody who deserves it!
Keep it goin.
Sign the petition: https://trailmix.cc/dolly

Let’s thank him:
Representative Todd Warner (R-District 92)
rep.todd.warner@capitol.tn.gov
todd@votewarner.com
(615) 741-4170
425 Rep. John Lewis Way N.
Suite 414 Cordell Hull Bldg.
Nashville, TN 37243

When foreign policy turns to decapitation strikes, rogue regimes call family targets fair game.

Tehran broadcasting animated hit pieces and bounties against an American president’s child is grotesque theater, but it exposes the inevitable cost of abandoning foundational norms.

For decades, American foreign policy strictly prohibited the targeted assassination of foreign leaders. The doctrine was not born out of sympathy for autocrats; it was anchored in cold, self-preserving pragmatism. Once a state legitimizes decapitation strikes as standard statecraft, the unwritten firewall collapses.

Opening Pandora’s box always looks decisive in the war room until the blowback begins.

Bring your take 11-Noon ET…

Alaska: Democrat Mary Peltola Beats GOP Incumbent In Bipartisan Ballot

Angie Nixon’s upset victory in Florida over Alexander Vindman was more than a primary surprise. She beat a candidate who had vastly more money and national visibility, suggesting Florida Democrats may have an appetite for a more populist, grassroots candidate.

Now she faces Ashley Moody, the Republican incumbent who was appointed to the Senate after Marco Rubio became secretary of state.

Nixon has an opening. Cost of living is Florida voters’ biggest concern, and Nixon is hyper-focused on housing, insurance, health care and wages. She isn’t the favorite. Not close. But after tonight’s unexpected win, this is a race worth watching.

There’s another wrinkle: turnout seems to be running well below recent primary levels in the strongest Trump counties — about 13-20 points lower than in 2024 and 2022. If that pattern holds statewide, and Trump’s approval stays underwater, tonight might not be the only upset in Florida this year.

ALASKA IN PLAY

Washington Post: “Alaska has emerged as a pivotal battleground in the fight for control of the Senate. The incumbent Republican senator Dan Sullivan is running for a third term in a state that President Donald Trump won by more than 13 points in 2024. He has raised more than $11 million and has more than $7 million in the bank as of the end of July. But Democrats are optimistic that Mary Peltola, who represented the state’s at-large House seat from 2022 to 2025, can attract enough crossover appeal to flip the seat. She is running on a moderate message of protecting the state’s fishing and energy sectors and has managed to raise more than $18 million with more than $4.6 million in the bank as of the end of July.”

We’re watching the polls close. Here’s my cheat sheet for what matters:

• Florida Governor: Byron Donalds — a win puts a Black MAGA Republican on track to make Florida history.
• Florida Senate: Alex Vindman vs. Angie Nixon — a test of the Democratic Party’s establishment vs. progressive divide.
• Florida House, FL-25: Jared Moskowitz — a redrawn district puts a Democratic incumbent in a much tougher fight.
• Florida House, FL-6: Randy Fine — a test of whether Trump-era MAGA politics can survive a messy GOP primary.
• Alaska Senate: Dan Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola — potentially one of Democrats’ best chances to flip a Senate seat.
• Alaska Senate: The other Dan Sullivan — watch how many votes the same-name challenger actually pulls.
• Alaska Governor: 17 candidates, four advancing — tonight is basically political musical chairs.
• Alaska House: Nick Begich — a Trump-backed Republican defending Alaska’s lone House seat.