The Trail Mix Low-Propensity Voter Tracker: Michigan Edition

Avatar photoby

Here’s what I’m watching tonight: key precincts for monitoring Abdul El-Sayed’s appeal to infrequent voters, compared to turnout in past elections.

Comparing real-time participation surges against historical baselines reveals whether his campaign is expanding the electorate — which is how Socialist Democrats can win general elections.

These precincts anchor key student, youth, and low-propensity urban voter bases.

Washtenaw: Ann Arbor Wards 1 & 2 (U of M Campus)

  • 2022 Baseline: ~15,800
  • 2026 Early/Absentee: _______
  • 2026 Election Day (In-Person): _______
  • 2026 Total Turnout: _______
  • Surge vs. 2022: _______
  • El-Sayed Margin: _______%

Washtenaw: Ypsilanti (EMU & Downtown)

  • 2022 Baseline: ~3,800
  • 2026 Early/Absentee: _______
  • 2026 Election Day (In-Person): _______
  • 2026 Total Turnout: _______
  • Surge vs. 2022: _______
  • El-Sayed Margin: _______%

Wayne: Detroit West Side (D2 / Livernois)

  • 2022 Baseline: ~15,500
  • 2026 Early/Absentee: _______
  • 2026 Election Day (In-Person): _______
  • 2026 Total Turnout: _______
  • Surge vs. 2022: _______
  • El-Sayed Margin: _______%

Wayne: Detroit East Side (D4 / Jefferson Chalmers)

  • 2022 Baseline: ~12,200
  • 2026 Early/Absentee: _______
  • 2026 Election Day (In-Person): _______
  • 2026 Total Turnout: _______
  • Surge vs. 2022: _______
  • El-Sayed Margin: _______%

More about the potential power of low-propensity voters on My Substack.

💬 Add your voice: Comment on today’s post
Share

44 thoughts on “The Trail Mix Low-Propensity Voter Tracker: Michigan Edition”

  4. I haven’t seen the numbers breakout but I assume Cornyn/Tillis are giving Susan cover to vote against Blanche. Helps to have the Senate appropriations chair as a friend when you’re heading into the lobbying job marketplace!

  6. “If I Prove That You Can Win Statewide Taking on AIPAC, That Is Catastrophic”

    “If I Prove That You Can Win Statewide Taking on AIPAC, That Is Catastrophic”

    Abdul El-Sayed says Tuesday’s Senate primary in Michigan is a referendum on the future of the Democratic Party.

    Then came the applause.
    It wasn’t for Medicare for All or his warnings about the rise of data centers. It was for a message that has come to define what is expected to be the most expensive Democratic Senate primary in history.

    “The central corrupting feature of our politics right now is the power of money to buy politicians so that government is captured by them, not for us,” El-Sayed said as he fielded questions from the stage, wearing his signature black T-shirt and blue jeans. “AIPAC will spend huge amounts of money if you’re uppity like me and you speak out of turn to beat you, and you’re seeing it play out on TV every day.”

  8. *So, there’s even more going on than USRael being ticked off by Spain not helping with their war against Iran, and the image of brown folks trying to get to Spain and pushing European politics farther right. It includes a Moroccan highway named tRUMP, pitting Spain against the EU, and somehow I think it reaches toward resources in all of Africa; Morocco is the gateway. Anyway, this guy didn’t just go on feels like I did; it is worth a watch.

  9. Opposition shouldn’t just oppose AIPAC, but against ALL outside Big Money!! Make it a bad thing to take huge funds from the few rather than pennies from the many!

  15. Corporate Crockett endorsed AIPAC Wessley Bell. She has destroyed her brand. Folks are livid on the series of tubes.

  16. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/live-results-kansas-midterm-primaries

    Looking at the KS Senate race. Surprised at the turnout for Roger Marshall in a primary since farmers are so ticked off at him. He literally used the same footage of a hog farm FOR the “Save Our Bacon Act” (which he co-sponsored), got blowback from farmers, and put out a new ad AGAINST it, saying he hadn’t been SCAMMED by it.

    The Democrat in the lead, Adam Hamilton, is a Methodist minister. The Talarico effect!

  17. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/kansas-governor-masterson-trump-holscher-corson-republican-democrat-rcna590030

    This is the greasy, blowhard backed by tRUMP. Either Kansas Republicans really have a taste for sh/t, or something is afoot. Yikes! Kansas is in deep trouble if this guy wins in November.

    He called Sarnecki an “angry elf” and a “Democrat plant” in the debate.

    Power, Resentment, and the Trump Shield: A Political Psychology Analysis of the 2026 Kansas Republican Governor’s Debate

    “.. Masterson built his entire rhetorical architecture around President Trump’s endorsement — deploying it not merely as a credential but as a weapon, a shield, and a substitute for substantive argument. When challenged, Masterson defaulted to contempt and delegitimization rather than engagement, most vividly by calling rival Phil Sarnicki a “Democrat plant” with no evidence. Sarnicki revealed a backstory of personal grievance — he turned down Masterson’s offer to be his running mate — that framed the evening as a rivalry born of rejection.”

    *Sound familiar. This choad thinks he’s gonna be a big shot, maybe even POTUS.

  19. Craig
    About Missouri:
    2 ballot issues put on the ballot by the Republicans going down big time. Amendment 4 would make it harder to pass an initiative from the voters
    From what I can see it is going down hard everywhere. Little rural counties are defeating it by close to 80%, early voting in KC and St Louis the same. If this continues it is totally unfking believable. A major slap down for the Republicans.

    Amendment 5 so far going down just as bad. This was a proposal to eliminate the income tax replace it with more sales taxes

    Jack

  21. Jack – I heard there were some folks in MO that got ballots that didn’t list every race. Hope they got that sorted out.

    Were the Republicans test-driving a new way to cheat in the general?

  23. It was the Republican legislature that placed it on the ballot. They are just lucky they didn’t have it on the ballot during the general election.
    Dallas County the little rural county I grew up in, been Republican since the civil war defeating Amendment 4 by 79%. LOL you would theink it was something the Democrats wanted.

    Jack

  24. The elimination of the state income tax is going down just as bad.
    Interesting. The opposition literature for amendment 4 and 5 ran with an anti politician slant. Looks like it really worked. For both to go down 80% no to 20% yes.
    I don’t think I’ve ever seen that lopsided of a state wide election.
    Jack

  25. Folks figured out it was too good to be true; the state income tax goes away, but they can then increase sales tax, and start to tax rent, medical bills, etc., AND you lose your ability to vote on taxes in the future.

  29. Bid
    That’s part of it for sure.
    The renewal of the sales tax for state parks and soil conservation easily passed. So it wasn’t an anti-sales tax vote. Just a strong reaction to The Republican legislature. 20% is a really low number

    Jack

  31. then them polls sucked

    😒

    i suspect respondents are lying (or “changing their mind”), polling science is much better than these comparative results would suggest

    good job MO 🫡

  32. Polls are not predictions.They might have been correct when they were in the field, which was a few days ago. Late deciding voters often make polls look bad. Looks like Detroit Black vote broke late for Stevens. Maybe not enough to make up her statewide deficit, but that’s what it is making this a tighter race.

  33. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/08/04/musk-spacex-rocket-moon-crash/

    For more than a year, a rocket built by Elon Musk’s SpaceX has been drifting in space.

    But on Wednesday morning, its journey is expected to come to a dramatic end when it will smash into the Moon in a collision which may be visible from Earth.

    For more than a year, a rocket built by Elon Musk’s SpaceX has been drifting in space.

    But on Wednesday morning, its journey is expected to come to a dramatic end when it will smash into the Moon in a collision which may be visible from Earth.

  36. Polls are not predictions

    i mean

    yeah but no

    which is why people use the prediction markets as polls now

    there’s no value in polls that are so inaccurate, besides electioneering

  38. if campaign expenditures are being spent on private polling that is this inaccurate than campaign contributions are being wasted on a broken industry

    lol margin of error +/-15 GTFO 🤦

  39. https://apnews.com/live/trump-news-blanche-iran-updates-08-04-2026#0000019f-ce99-d455-a59f-eedb4ee90000

    Houston law firm with Trump ties gets $150M contract for child immigrant legal services

    The announcement comes days after the federal government allowed a contract to expire on Friday with a network of nearly 100 legal groups after not paying for their services for more than half a year.

    The Trump administration is planning to hire a Houston-based law firm with ties to the administration to provide legal services to unaccompanied children, according to a notice scheduled to be posted on the Federal Register this week.

    The agreement will award a contract of $150 million to Burke Law Group, with a proposed time period covering one year starting Aug. 15.

    One of the founders, Marcella Burkey, was a former Trump appointee to the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of the Interior. Jeffrey Hall, a former employee and founding partner, was recently appointed and confirmed to serve in the EPA late last year.

  40. https://www.cato.org/blog/attorney-general-prison-executive

    The new rule (an amendment to BOP’s Program Statement 5100.08) allows the attorney general, personally, “to designate or redesignate the place of a prisoner’s imprisonment” at his discretion. The attorney general can now direct the BOP to transfer any particular inmate to any particular prison, based on the attorney general’s exclusive judgment.

    *Well, isn’t that special; if tRUMP doesn’t like you, his AG can send you to the worst, maximum security facility with an open bed.

  41. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/mar/27/wikipedia-bans-ai

    Wikipedia bans AI-generated content in its online encyclopedia. *sort of

    In a recent policy change, Wikipedia said that the use of large language models (or LLMs) “often violates” its core principles and will not be allowed.

    There are two exceptions to the new ban: AI can still be used for translations, and to make minor copy edits.

    “Editors are permitted to use LLMs to suggest basic copyedits to their own writing, and to incorporate some of them after human review, provided the LLM does not introduce content of its own,” the new policy states.

    “Caution is required, because LLMs can go beyond what you ask of them and change the meaning of the text such that it is not supported by the sources cited.”

  42. Hold the phone! Something isn’t making sense…but maybe I just need more facts.

    That space debris has been drifting and they couldn’t get it back, but they do have the capability to steer it into the moon??? Does this have something to do with China going to the moon?

Name is required. Email and website optional — we only ask for civility.

Regulars: Already registered? Log in here so your name fills in automatically.

New here? You can comment without an account — just pick a name and type. If you want a permanent login, you can register here (optional).

First time here? New voices always welcome. The regulars only bite when provoked.

Leave a Comment

The maximum upload file size: 100 MB. You can upload: image, audio, video, document, spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, code, other. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Drop files here

Join the Trail Mix

Get an alert when Craig goes live, and the link when our Open Thread heats up.