Author: Craig Crawford

Somebody in the Republican party, and preferably in the Trump Cabinet, should stand up and say Enough! Rick Perry is a possibility. The former Texas governor is among the few on Trump’s Cabinet who haven’t embarrassed themselves with humiliating scandal. He’s got street cred with at least the religious right elements of Trump’s base. Not saying I would support him for president but why not make the Republican nomination a race?

Republicans who give a damn about preserving their party ought to be thinking about such things.

And of course it wouldn’t hurt Democrats to see a civil war within Trump’s base.

Ready or not, the Democratic presidential race is entering its second to last lap. Come Labor Day the battle begins 24/7 for Iowa, which coronated the last 6 ultimate nominees in the last 8 contests (favorite son Harkin’s win in 1992 was an obvious anomaly, and Missouri neighbor Gephardt’s Iowa win in 1988 similarly explainable).

Watching the speed dating 20-minute appearances of the candidates at the Iowa State Fair over the weekend, plus the state polling, and on-ground staffing of the Democratic hopefuls, my take:

Elizabeth Warren could dislodge Joe Biden. All that’s holding her back is worries among Iowa voters she’s not as likely as Biden to beat Trump. If she can fix that, Biden is done.

Other takes: Sanders has run his course, while Harris and Booker are getting a look. Mayor Pete isn’t catching on. The rest of field off the grid. But Iowans are warming to Warren’s authenticity.

Why is Iowa so critical (other than it’s history of mostly choosing the nomination winners)? Voters there define the narrative going forward. And this time the narrative out of Iowa matters more than ever. Within four weeks after Iowa’s Feb. 3 caucuses most of the delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination will be chosen and pledged for the first ballot at the convention.

I’m not seeing Democrats fully understand the end game is here and now for choosing who challenges Trump. Waiting for the perfect is the enemy of the possible.

• 

I choose Warren.

Looks like Bernie Sanders is losing support to Elizabeth Warren in Iowa:

Asked of Iowa voters who said they are likely to participate (in person or by phone): If the Democratic caucuses for president were today, would you support [NAMES WERE ROTATED]?  [If UNDECIDED: If you had to support one of these candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward?]

TREND	Aug. 2019	April 2019
Joe Biden	28%	27%
Elizabeth Warren	19%	7%
Kamala Harris	11%	7%
Bernie Sanders	9%	16%
Pete Buttigieg	8%	9%
Amy Klobuchar	3%	4%
Tom Steyer	3%	n/a
Kirsten Gillibrand	2%	1%
Andrew Yang	2%	1%
Cory Booker	1%	3%
Steve Bullock	1%	<1%
John Delaney	1%	1%
Tulsi Gabbard	1%	<1%
John Hickenlooper	1%	0%
Michael Bennet	<1%	0%
Julián Castro	<1%	2%
Jay Inslee	<1%	<1%
Beto O’Rourke	<1%	6%
Marianne Williamson	<1%	0%
Bill de Blasio	0%	<1%
Wayne Messam	0%	0%
Seth Moulton	0%	0%
Tim Ryan	0%	1%
Joe Sestak	0%	n/a
(VOL) No one	<1%	1%
(VOL) Other	0%	1%
(VOL) Undecided	10%	12%

source: Monmouth University Polling Institute

Even better news for Warren she tops the list for second choice, handily beats Biden:

And who would be your second choice?

TREND:	Aug. 2019	April 2019
Elizabeth Warren	19%	10%
Kamala Harris	13%	12%
Joe Biden	12%	12%
Pete Buttigieg	9%	6%
Bernie Sanders	8%	8%
Cory Booker	4%	6%
Tom Steyer	3%	n/a
Tulsi Gabbard	2%	2%
Amy Klobuchar	2%	3%
Andrew Yang	2%	<1%
Kirsten Gillibrand	1%	1%
Steve Bullock	1%	0%
Bill de Blasio	1%	0%
John Delaney	1%	<1%
John Hickenlooper	1%	1%
Beto O’Rourke	1%	8%
Michael Bennet	<1%	0%
Julián Castro	<1%	1%
Tim Ryan	<1%	1%
Marianne Williamson	<1%	1%
Jay Inslee	0%	<1%
Wayne Messam	0%	0%
Seth Moulton	0%	0%
Joe Sestak	0%	n/a
(VOL) No one	4%	10%
(VOL) Other	0%	<1%
(VOL) Undecided	17%	18%

I sense coordination between the speeches by Joe Biden in Iowa and Cory Booker in South Carolina yesterday. Biden’s speech writers honored the ideals of Thomas Jefferson and the Constitution while noting both supported slavery. A few hours earlier Booker embodied the triumph of ideals in words that rang similar to Biden’s to my ears.

Biden/Booker sounds good to me.

Ron Brownstein (CNN): “Under Trump the Republican party is making a conscious trade. They are trading bigger margins among groups that are shrinking in society for resistance and opposition in the areas that are in the groups that are growing.”

John Kasich to Republican senators afraid of backing gun regulation (CNN): “Who cares? You’re down there to do a job. And if you have to be independent, at the end the of the day the only person who sees you in the mirror is yourself.”