How We Lose

I’m sure Kamala wins, but how could we lose?

Young men without college degrees who seldom vote are a problem.

Trump is going after them, and if it works he could win tight races in battleground states.

I’ve been thinking about this since David Hogg, the Parkland survivor turned gun safety activist, wrote the warning below. His words sorted out my confusion about Trump campaign strategy bypassing outreach to swing voters.

Trump is counting on appeals to what political experts call “low propensity” and “low information” voters to swarm the vote.

Bragg identifies a big part of that strategy here:

David Hogg
@davidhogg111
I hope I’m wrong but if we lose in November I think the main reason why will be the number of young men of all races that are no longer Democrats. There’s been a taboo about talking about this because we understandably are hesitant to make men a main point of conversation (given we have been for thousands of years) but we have a real problem to deal with. At this point with 60 days to go there isn’t much we can do to recover it other than turning out more young women and trying to slow the departure of young men. I think a lot of this is caused by Covid and the epidemic of male loneliness in this country and the ensuing commodification through social media of misogyny. Long-term, we have a lot of work to do to provide positive examples of what actual masculinity looks like that is not defined by putting down women or other people, but by lifting others up and being a true leader.
Sep 6, 2024

Whether it is kicking with renegade pod-casters, embracing Kid Rock and Hulk Hogan, or tapping into anti-feminist anger, the Trump campaign is going after disaffected men of all ages with a vengeance. I can even see a connection in Trump’s attack on Taylor Swift, and his newfound fondness for vaping and cryptocurrency.

While I agree with Hogg there isn’t much that can be done in the short term about this troubling gender gap, other than turning out more women and slowing down the departure of men, it is encouraging to see the Harris campaign understands the problem. These two ads seem designed to win back some men.

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Author: craigcrawford

Trail Mix Host

43 thoughts on “How We Lose”

  1. the “Manual” ad is a refreshing change in the world of political ads.  I love it and can see why Coach Walz was considered a great teacher by his Mankato students and football team. he interspersed jokes, helpful hints, and useful facts while getting across the real lesson.

    hope we’ll see more campaign ads like this in the future. kudos to him or whomever it was that thought up that ad approach.
    BTW, I can see it appealing to women as well as to men for various reasons. 

  2. Pat, the Walz car maintenance ads appear to be an emerging series. Here’s a short version designed for phone devices on TikTok — on cleaning your carburetor and dumping Project 2025…

  3. Now for some data on this.

    Women 18-29 Years Old
    Harris 68%
    Trump 30%

    ———————————

    Men 18-29 Years Old
    Harris 51%
    Trump 48%

    Average of top-ten polls rated for accuracy and transparency by Five-Thirty-Eight

  5. Attribution: Tone down the rhetoric by Pat Bagley, The Salt Lake Tribune, UT

     

    as depicted in bagley’s  ‘toon, the magaT campaign will somehow put a negative twist on the new walz ads just like they did with his “weird” contribution. 

  6. maher on the other veep candidate and observations about fly over country. usual warnings for tender ears:/p>

    America is a funny, mixed up place now. Why don’t we just resist our worst impulses and remember we’re not so different after all?

  7. Here is how Dumbass deals with his gender gap…

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    Sep 20, 2024, 11:42 PM

    WOMEN ARE POORER THAN THEY WERE FOUR YEARS AGO, ARE LESS HEALTHY THAN THEY WERE FOUR YEARS AGO, ARE LESS SAFE ON THE STREETS THAN THEY WERE FOUR YEARS AGO, ARE MORE DEPRESSED AND UNHAPPY THAN THEY WERE FOUR YEARS AGO, AND ARE LESS OPTIMISTIC AND CONFIDENT IN THE FUTURE THAN THEY WERE FOUR YEARS AGO! I WILL FIX ALL OF THAT, AND FAST, AND AT LONG LAST THIS NATIONAL NIGHTMARE WILL BE OVER. WOMEN WILL BE HAPPY, HEALTHY, CONFIDENT AND FREE! YOU WILL NO LONGER BE THINKING ABOUT ABORTION, BECAUSE IT IS NOW WHERE IT ALWAYS HAD TO BE, WITH THE STATES, AND A VOTE OF THE PEOPLE – AND WITH POWERFUL EXCEPTIONS, LIKE THOSE THAT RONALD REAGAN INSISTED ON, FOR RAPE, INCEST, AND THE LIFE OF THE MOTHER – BUT NOT ALLOWING FOR DEMOCRAT DEMANDED LATE TERM ABORTION IN THE 7TH, 8TH, OR 9TH MONTH, OR EVEN EXECUTION OF A BABY AFTER BIRTH. I WILL PROTECT WOMEN AT A LEVEL NEVER SEEN BEFORE. THEY WILL FINALLY BE HEALTHY, HOPEFUL, SAFE, AND SECURE. THEIR LIVES WILL BE HAPPY, BEAUTIFUL, AND GREAT AGAIN!

  8. Nuggets gleaned from yesterday’s FEC filings.     
    — Harris spent $174 million in August, Trump $61 million
    — Both focused spending on ads, rallies, travel and staff
    — Harris ended August with $235 million, Trump with $135 million

  9. WOMEN … ARE MORE DEPRESSED AND UNHAPPY THAN THEY WERE FOUR YEARS AGO,  donold ???

    reminding you of what depressed and unhappy women look like:

     2017 Women’s March – Wikipedia

    The Women’s March[13][14][15][a] was a worldwide protest on January 21, 2017, the day after the inauguration of Donald Trump as US president. It was prompted by Trump’s policy positions and rhetoric, which were considered misogynistic and represented a threat to the rights of women.[13][19] It was at the time the largest single-day protest in U.S. history, being surpassed 3 years later by the George Floyd protests.[20] The goal of the annual marches is to advocate legislation and policies regarding human rights and other issues, including women’s rights, immigration reform, healthcare reform, disability justice, reproductive rights, the environment, LGBTQ rights, racial equality, freedom of religion,[21] workers’ rights and tolerance. According to organizers, the goal was to “send a bold message to our new administration on their first day in office, and to the world that women’s rights are human rights”.[22]

    The main protest was in Washington, D.C., and is known as the Women’s March on Washington[23] with many other marches taking place worldwide. The Washington March was streamed live on YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter.[24] The Washington March drew over 470,000 people.[25] Between 3,267,134 and 5,246,670 people participated in the marches in the U.S.,[26] approximately 1.0 to 1.6 percent of the U.S. population. Worldwide participation has been estimated at over seven million. [continues]

  12. Ivy, oh wonderful.  Dumbass is going to attend the Alabama-Georgia game next weekend.

     
    Pogo, his attention span is so short, he won’t stay long. Last time he had Melania with him (if I recall rightly). This time maybe, Meloomia? oh well, we get a bye week to brace ourselves. 

  14. Bill Maher was on a roll last night, and so was his guest, 11th Hour’s Stephanie Ruhl. We catch her most nights and I like her perspectives and mostly her energy. We need more of that. Together they ganged up on “undecided” Bret Stephens. Bill’s best line was Bret is like the dog we’re trying to get into the car to go to the vet. Bret’s comeback was, he needs a treat.

  15. Meanwhile, back to the 14th Century.

    The number of women in Texas who died while pregnant, during labor or soon after childbirth skyrocketed following the state’s 2021 ban on abortion care — far outpacing a slower rise in maternal mortality across the nation, a new investigation of federal public health data finds.
    From 2019 to 2022, the rate of maternal mortality cases in Texas rose by 56%, compared with just 11% nationwide during the same time period, according to an analysis by the Gender Equity Policy Institute. The nonprofit research group scoured publicly available reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and shared the analysis exclusively with NBC News.

    “There’s only one explanation for this staggering difference in maternal mortality,” said Nancy L. Cohen, president of the GEPI. “All the research points to Texas’ abortion ban as the primary driver of this alarming increase.” 
    “Texas, I fear, is a harbinger of what’s to come in other states,” she said.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/womens-health/texas-abortion-ban-deaths-pregnant-women-sb8-analysis-rcna171631

  17. Plumpty gave the show a thumbs down. 

    The ratings challenged Bill Maher, on his increasingly boring show on HBO, is really having a hard time coping with TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. He is a befuddled mess, sloppy and tired, and every conversation, with B and C list guests, seems to start with, or revert back to, ME! This week he had “dumb as a rock” bimbo Stephanie Ruhle, from MSDNC, on the show, along with a Trump hating loser, Bret Stephens, who seemed totally confused and unsure of himself, very much like Maher himself. Steven’s should find himself another line of work because I am driving the FAILING New York Times absolutely crazy, and it is very hard, perhaps impossible, for a writer to write well of me without suffering the wrath of the degenerate editors who, with a push from the top, have gone insane. They apologized to their readers in 2016 for their complete and total MISS, and they’ll do it again in November. The FAILING New York Times is a badly run”newspaper” that has totally lost its way. Put it to sleep!

  18. Men, and some women, do not understand women’s bodies nor the basic lifecycle of humans.  
    And, there is the other human failing of not believing something until it personally impacts someone.  Waiter says, “hot plate” and you touch it.  
    Hogg used the term “male loneliness.”  Isolated that’s to the internet?  Misogynist views so they become angry incels?  Perv Robinson of NC isn’t the only one who wants women to lose the vote.  They want captives because they have zero social skills and no empathy.   That’s why they align with Orange Adolf.
    Maybe Walz can be the coach/surrogate dad that they need.  Maybe being part of a team, as opposed to screaming for a team and railing against another one would help; so volunteer or find a group interested in cars or D&D, or whatever makes sense. (LoL)  Maybe understanding you have to be a friend to have a friend would help.  
    They are looking up to an orange, conman who is a serial philanderer and an adjudicated rapist.  Adolf is living out the hatred inside them and it’s probably a bit cathartic at times, but there’s always more anger because they don’t deal with the root cause, which is themselves.   Notice that Adolf refers to Harris as “the enemy,” not his opponent.
    It’s going to take a lot of endorsements for Harris that are within their sphere to get them to see clearly.  IDK if that’s gaming or what, but it needs to happen soon.   We can’t bank on them being so disaffected that they just stay home. 
    SNL is back next week, but that doesn’t really play for the under 30s.

  19. Judas selling pieces of silver. Why am I not surprised?

    Former US President Donald Trump has announcedthe launch of his first officially authorized commemorative silver coin, named “TRUMP COINS.” Priced at $100, the coin is designed by Trump himself and is minted in the US.

     
     

  20. https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/21/europe/bayesian-yacht-watertight-safes-intl/index.html

    “Specialist divers surveying the wreckage of the $40 million superyacht that sank off Sicily in August, killing eight people including British tech tycoon Mike Lynch, have asked for heightened security to guard the vessel, over concerns that sensitive data locked in its safes may interest foreign governments…”

    “…the Bayesian, may contain highly sensitive data tied to a number of Western intelligence services, four sources familiar with the investigation and salvage operation said.”

    “Lynch was associated with British, American and other intelligence services through his various companies, including the cyber security company he founded, Darktrace.”

    “That company was sold to Chicago-based private equity firm Thoma Bravo in April. Lynch, whose wife’s company Revtom Limited owned the vessel, was also an adviser to British prime ministers David Cameron and Theresa May on science, technology and cyber security during their tenures, according to British government and public Darktrace records.”

  23. Yo incels, women like guys that respect their right to self-determination, vote Harris/Walz and maybe you might get a date!  🇺🇸 

    Good admonition from Hogg

  25. trump is full-blown manic batshit crazy since he’s been down in the polls, the vocal affect, crazy eyes, weird body language, keep him away from the nuke codes please

    He has this new joker-esque half-smile he does now also, just absolutely insane

    Ok that’s all ✌️
    Harris/Walz 2024 Let’s Goooooooo 🦅 🇺🇸

  26. https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/21/politics/fundraising-harris-trump-elon-musk/index.html

    “Friday’s campaign reports show that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee – the party arm engaged in House races – significantly outraised its GOP counterpart, the National Republican Campaign Committee, $22.3 million to $9.7 million.”

    “The DCCC also entered September with more cash on hand, $87.3 million to $70.8 million for the NRCC…”

    “One of the notable donors seeking to help House Republicans stem the Democratic tide of cash: billionaire Elon Musk, who records show gave the House GOP campaign arm $289,100 in August, the largest federal donation disclosed by Musk so far this cycle as he steps up his Republican giving.”

    “…a super PAC Musk helped form recently ramped up its activity in the presidential contest, spending more than $40 million since mid-August. That includes more than $22 million on canvassing efforts on Trump’s behalf, helping to fill in a critical role. The Trump campaign, as CNN has previously reported, has opted to outsource much of its ground game operation to outside organizations.”

    ps – tRUMP Media stock closed the week at $13.55

  27. Walz reminds me of all those boy’s shop teachers from 60 years ago when a HS education meant someone with a skill could actually support a family assuming the wife worked part time once the kids were school age.  

    This is the main reason that $50000 for small business idea is so important.  The last time I checked plumbers and other skilled trades made even more money than the college guys simply because they aren’t carrying a mountain of college debt.

     

  29.  
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-tim-walz-endorsement-nfl-legends-national-black-voter-day/
     
    “A recent poll conducted by the NAACP found roughly a quarter of young African American men under 50 support former President Donald Trump, while about half back Harris.”

    “More than 50 former football players and coaches, including several Pro Football Hall of Famers and Super Bowl MVP’s, announced their endorsement Friday of Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The group represents 25 historically Black colleges and universities (HBCU’s) and consists of 10 Pro Football Hall of Fame inductees, two Super Bowl champions and MVPs, former No. 1 overall picks and some of the first Black athletes and coaches to break the color barrier.”

    “I think it’s very important to not operate from the assumption that Black men are in anybody’s pocket,” Harris said during the NABJ interview. “I’m working to earn the vote, not assuming I’m going to have it because I am Black.” 
     

  30. Adolf knows where ANWR is now.  Isolationist, manufacturing nonsense.  
    He clearly had a little study session.

    Same old gloom and doom, but Felon loves Elon (because he has money).  
    Ooops. Bashing electric cars. 

    He is lying about SS and Medicare.
    He won’t save it; he’ll try to gut it like he did many times when he was in office.   That’s a message that needs to get through, maybe via an AARP virtual event. 

    Annnd, now he’s back to the old xenophobic ranting.   

    Showed up late. Leaving early. 
     

  31. Trump responded to debate proposal in rally speech just now. 

    “The problem with another debate is it’s already too late. We’ve already started the voting… It’s too late to do another. I’d love to in many ways” 

    Such crap. He did several October debates in his two presidential campaigns.

  34. Checked to see if he was still lying.   Something about signing something for the Lumbee Tribe, and then “you’ll be all set.”  Yeah, right. 

    Now watching Rick Steves on PBS. They are running the ep about racism in Germany, again. Good. I hope folks see it and the similarities to Orange Adolf: He repeated a lie endlessly, and a big lie rather than a small lie, and dumbed it down as much as possible. Privatized industries that backed him. Smashed labor unions.

  35. “You will no longer be thinking about abortions,” because there will be a national abortion ban.  “You will be free,” of choices; he’ll take them all away.   He is a sinister m-fkr, and so is everyone who supports him, whether in politics or not.
     
    Best note I’ve seen is to Republican women: You don’t have to tell your husband who you vote for. 

  36. https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/21/media/trump-second-debate-harris-vp-october-analysis/index.html

    “Does Donald Trump really want his running mate, JD Vance, to have the final debating word this fall?”

    “The only remaining agreed-to debate of this presidential election season is the October 1 face-off between the vice presidential nominees, Vance and Tim Walz.”

    “CBS is hosting the VP debate and allowing other networks to simulcast the matchup, just as CNN did in June and ABC did earlier this month. The contrasts between Walz, 60, and Vance, 40, are sure to be fascinating.”Yeah, ~fascinating~
    There is no age here. Walz is smart and engaging and light-hearted.  Vance is creepy and an admitted liar. 

    ps – Ummm, JD is only 40?  Like, he just turned 40 last month.  Like, he was 39 at the convention.  

    “At a rally Saturday afternoon, Trump claimed October 23 is “just too late” because “voting has already started.”  But as political scientist Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, observed on X, people who vote weeks early are mainly “voters who were probably unmovable.” A debate closer to Election Day “could sway the small % of undecideds plus motivate (or de-motivate) many on both sides.”  The final presidential debate of the 2020 electioncycle was held on October 22.”

    If JD makes a mess with his lies and nonsense (and he will), Adolf won’t be able to help himself.  He’ll debate, again and make it worse. 

    The only thing I can see JD trying to needle Walz about is service, and we know the timeline for Walz’ departure, and that JD didn’t see action.  Annnd, then Walz can point out the terrible, awful, disgusting things Adolf has said about service members.  JD would be wise to steer clear of that topic.   Walz is gonna hammer him on Project 2025.   Heck, he could hammer JD on his book…but that would take attention away from SS, reproductive rights, TAXES, etc.
     
    Does Adolf want the last impression from his campaign to be a creepy, eyelinered humanoid?

  37. Maybe they can ask Vance what his profession was before the Senate, besides that book

    i know Kamala was a prosecutor, DA, AG

    i know Tim taught school and was in the Nat’l Guard for 20+ years

    Wtf was JD? 🤔

  38. On the side show to the main circus is a continuation of the internal “norovirus” of the magats.  Gym Jordan wants to replace little (not to demean people who are short) spoke of the house mickey.  Shooting around the intertubes are a lot of rumours, probably a few by the gym guy.

  40. AI-assisted google has been out for a week, now, and i’ve watched it improve noticeably in that short of a time period.
     
    insert ominous warning, here

  42. Overall, trump has been shitty for pop music, it hit a zenith during Obama admin 
     
    Vote Harris/Walz  Let’s Get Our Groove Back 🎶 🇺🇸 

    i feel it comin’

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