As Maine Goes So Goes the Nation

Wiki:

As Maine goes, so goes the nation” was once a maxim in United States politics. The phrase described Maine‘s reputation as a bellwether state for presidential elections. Maine’s September election of a governor predicted the party outcome of the November presidential election in 22 out of the 29 presidential election years from 1820 to 1932: namely 1820–1844, 1852, 1860–1880, 1888, 1896–1908 and 1920–1932; more importantly, as Maine was a generally Republican-leaning state, the margin of the September elections compared to expectations could predict national November results more than the identity of the winning party in Maine. A contest still won by the Republicans but with a narrower margin than usual would still predict good Democratic results nationally.

[Also see from the Library of Congress As Maine goes, so goes the nation (loc.gov)]

Maine disqualifies Trump from presidential primary ballot, citing insurrection clause | Donald Trump | The Guardian

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IvyGreen
1 year ago

Thanks, Pat. Don’t know how much of a bellwether is Dr. Mary, but I always appreciate her point of view on her crazy uncle. 

craigcrawford
1 year ago

Was very impressed with the Maine Secretary of State on TV last night, she came across quite calm and reasonable, not the monstrous thug the MAGA mob portraying.

This AP article is a balanced overview of the issue but I don’t agree the Court must prevent “chaos”. They welcomed a chaos of contradictory state laws on abortion, why not this? – AP: “Until the high court rules, any state could adopt its own standard on whether Trump, or anyone else, can be on the ballot. That’s the sort of legal chaos the court is supposed to prevent.”

IvyGreen
1 year ago

His most egregious act was his deliberate failure to act as his minions attacked. 

She also concluded that Mr. Trump “was aware of the likelihood for violence and at least initially supported its use given he both encouraged it with incendiary rhetoric and took no timely action to stop it.”

IvyGreen
1 year ago

Another notable bell-ringer was Ivan Pavlov. 

A lot of people may be familiar with Ivan Pavlov and his Classical Conditioning experiment. In the experiment, Pavlov rang a bell whenever he gave food to his dogs. After repeating the process many times, he tried ringing the bell without giving food. The dogs salivated at the sound of the bell in the same way they usually salivated for the food in front of them. The dogs had been conditioned to give the same response to the bell’s ringing! Classical conditioning is defined as “a behavioral learning theory according to which a stimulus is paired with another stimulus that elicits a known response that serves to produce the same response when used alone.”

Salivating (or retching), we’re increasingly conditioned one way or another in our response to the sound of the word trump.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/pavlovs-experiment-does-ring-bell-tejasvini-verma

IvyGreen
1 year ago

“Joe is firm in his dedication to upholding the Constitution.”

craigcrawford
1 year ago

Thomas Jefferson saw Trump coming:

“If once elected and at a second outvoted, he will pretend false votes, foul play, hold possession of the reins of government, be supported by the states voting for him.”

— Letter to James Madison advocating term limits for the presidency

Sturgeone
1 year ago

Aaron Burr could have been the first chump. 

Sturgeone
1 year ago

The only valid censorship of ideas is the right of people not to listen.
 —Tom Smothers

whskyjack
1 year ago

His supporters are in jail because of actions they did. It is much harder to prove that Trump was in anyway involved or an active participant. Advocating for a certain legal theory and working with others to advocate for it is not rebellion, it is speech and assembly. Both protected by the constitution. A political demonstration that got out of control and turned into a riot, also, is not rebellion. The fact that there were people in the mob who were engaged in an act of organized rebellion doesn’t mean that Trump or any of the other rioters were engaging in rebellion.
Although Trump walked right up to the edge, I suspect it will be hard to prove he was a rebel.
 I believe this will be the escape route that the Court uses to avoid making the hard choices, they will punt and make no changes to existing law.
Do I think Trump lead, organized and approved of what happened Jan 6? Yes. Can it be proved? I’m doubtful.
Jack

whskyjack
1 year ago

Bink
1 year ago

 
speech and assembly

neither of those rights are absolute

tape or testimony could prove his intent, i assume Smith has both

Sturgeone
1 year ago

Jack Smith is sitting on much more than we know.  He’s got several trials to go thru yet.   Theft and possible distribution of national intelligence secrets and such.
Like that Michigan electors phone call which popped up.

Bink
1 year ago

The central argument of Trump‘s legal defense is essentially that he’s too stupid to understand written English, but he says he’s a stable genius

IvyGreen
1 year ago

— Letter to James Madison advocating term limits for the presidency

 
One term, six years, no reelections. 
Would solve a ton of problems.

IvyGreen
1 year ago

Pat, point well taken. Such a maniacal megalomaniac should never ever have been elected in the first place. We got him out in the nick of time – though too late for millions he destroyed – and by the skin of our teeth. It could have been so much worse, and I’m not sleeping easy knowing he can get in there again. 

IvyGreen
1 year ago

Bobo is not going to affect me. I get to vote for another good Joe. But all my relatives will be stuck with her. Some may like that; others won’t. But they’ve already gotten used to being Stuck with Buck. She may get primaried (let’s hope.)
 

Sturgeone
1 year ago

I think she’s going to sink like a stone.  

She’ll be gone quicker’n you can say “Gary Hart”.

IvyGreen
1 year ago

Mr. Ivy got a jury summons. Guess we’re “on a roll” now.

blueINdallas
1 year ago

SFB called the insurrectionists to DC/held a rally on the day of the count; he knew they were armed and that they weren’t there to hurt him; he said they were going to march to the Capitol, said “fight like hell,” and would’ve been there himself if the SS had allowed it; knew what was going on and that Pence was in danger; he sat on his tiny hands while his lackeys tried to carry out his plan to overthrow the government.   Orange Adolf led the insurrection.  He was their Commander-In-Thief.  

No matter the outcome of 2024, it’s going to be difficult.  As KO said in January of 2021, this was just a rehearsal.