8 National Polls (8/24 – 9/12)
Trump 45.1 (+.05)
Biden 44.6
———————–
2020 Results
Biden 51.3 (+4.4)
Trump 46.9
Biden Trump Tied: WHY???
User-Supported News Commentary Hosted by Craig Crawford
8 National Polls (8/24 – 9/12)
Trump 45.1 (+.05)
Biden 44.6
———————–
2020 Results
Biden 51.3 (+4.4)
Trump 46.9
-the economy (stupid)
-Admin not selling their successes effectively
-GOP disinformation has been mainstreamed
-Doom & gloom sells more advertising than good news
-it’s early
other reasons may be what kind of folks answer or don’t answer unidentifiable phone numbers, pollsters using push polls or ambiguous questions and then there are others who are just cranky at that particular moment in their busy day taking it out on the current leader.
All of the above.
I’d like to see a poll with samples in each state relative to the number of electors in each. National polls without such weighting that have roughly equal numbers of republicans and democrats are going to come out roughly equal almost without exception.
Polls are tied because it’s in the pollsters’ interest for them to be tied.
there are also the vast undecided not about who they prefer but IF they’ll even go vote and those who are the unaffiliated independents.
Muppet Cows performing a Clark Sisters’ song. Recorded by DOT, Hollywood, first published way way back in 1959.
sturge, ahh yes, a horse race is always more interesting click bait moneywise.
And then there are “polls” done the CNN way, over represent the R’s, or just skip Dems and have R’s only polls on Dem issues.
Seems like the last few years, after every surprising election everyone on tv starts huffing and puffing about “WHAT HAPPENED TO THE POLLS? How did they get it so wrong??”
Leads one to wonder what happened to the polls.
I suspect the polls are not something to put a lot of faith in.
(ie…….fulla crap. )
You know, unless they support your position.
Operative phrase: Corporate media.
I’ve gathered that Olbermann is not top of the line commentary with some (which is no skin off my nose) but in his podcast which has been going 5 days a week for a couple of weeks over one year, among his musings has been an extremely coherent and enlightening view of the inside histories of the “Countdown” show, MSNBC, CNN, and ESPN. and most of all, how they work, how they skew things, and how crazy all the executives are
Fetterman to join striking UAW workers in Michigan: ‘I know which side I’m on’ | The Hill
wonder if the good senator will be driving there in an EV made by a unionized plant in the USA and if anyone takes note if he doesn’t.
“It’s time to decide what side you’re on,” Fetterman wrote.
This is a 1941 recording of “Which Side Are You On?”, performed by the Almanac Singers. “Which Side Are You On?” was written in 1931 by Florence Reece, the wife of a union organizer for the United Mine Workers(UMW) in Harlan County, Kentucky. In 1931, the miners and the mine owners of that region were locked in a violent struggle (Harlan County War). In an attempt to intimidate the Reece family, Sheriff J. H. Blair and his men (hired by the mining company) illegally entered their family home in search of Florence’s husband. Florence and their children were terrorized by the experience. That night, after the men had gone, Florence wrote the lyrics to “Which Side Are You On?” The melody was adapted from a traditional Baptist hymn, “Lay the Lily Low”.
As you know I am constantly saying AI is not intelligence or artificial. It is a big pile of software running a big nasty algorithm real fast, all of it on cheap memory and processors. It is not magic. It does use a huge amount of energy, which is why Amazon and others are buying farm land, it is typically flat and in the sun, to place huge numbers of solar panels to make power.
The San Francisco Chronicle has a nice article about a company that designs and builds processors for running those big nasty programs. It is behind a paywall, so here is the money quote. Notice nothing about magic.
I don’t see how 8 national polls over a month can all be inaccurate or biased in consistently showing a tie. Something else is wrong. Better to analyze a problem than pretend it doesn’t exist.
In reviewing the data inside a few of the historically reliable polls I see two major red flags for the Biden campaign showing a small but significant decline in support from 2020 until now: Non-white voters and Non-college voters. All other groups are basically the same as last time or changed within the margin of error
Both non-whites and non-college are down outside the margin of error from his 2020 performance. Enough so to account for much of the change from his 4.4 point win in 2020 to tied now.
It seems like a boost of just a few points among non-whites and non-college would regain his 2020 electoral college win. For starters, get child tax credits and free community college back on the agenda, scorch the Republicans for getting in the way.
Craig,
It is in the nation’s best interest to have free community college and/or technical schools. Child tax credits only for the first two.
Yep Jamie, I was so disappointed Biden had to sacrifice both in the budget debates, but without any GOP support there just weren’t enough votes. Tell voters to replace more Republicans in 2024 and these get done!!!
It may not be the polls. It may be the people. Diarrhea Donald has pooped in and poisoned the well, or not just the well but the entire water supply.
Resentment is drinking poison and expecting someone else to die.
Mid-terms—Red Tsunami—Polls
”Gosh, how did we get it so wrong?”
Is something going on about Kamala? Pelosi and Raskin this week noticeably dodged questions from CNN anchors on whether Harris should stay on the ticket. And even more noticeably they did not walk back their tepid answers.
Is it possible there’s a mood among Dem leaders that a more popular running mate would help deal with the Biden age issue. In his case voters are more likely than usual to factor in his VP.
Any talk of challenging Biden for the nomination faces fast-approaching filing deadlines. Nevada’s is Oct 16 and the rest quickly follow.
Democrats always seem to get to a point where they like to think that our winners are (oh my) somehow now going to cause us to lose. It’s depressing.
It’s how the gop always gets away with crap like “ But her emails!” and Bernie Sanders, and swift boat bullshit.
“A house divided against itself cannot stand”.
It’s now the time to be taking advantage of the gop schism, not endeavoring to create one of our own.
Hello everyone! Just checking in with an update on my job and the current UAW strike. The plant I work for has about 55% or probably more than that of it’s business with Ford. The department I work in makes underseat storage bins for the Ford F-150. We ship parts to Dearborn Assembly, Kentucky Truck Plant and Kansas City. So far, those plants haven’t gone on strike. So, no change in my job status as of right now. Our biggest and most profitable department at work is the 625 line which makes the door panels for the Ford Explorer. They ship to the Chicago Assembly Plant (CAP). If that plant were to go on strike, that would really hurt the factory I work at. As of yesterday, a few departments at work were affected by the strike. But, most lines are short people, so the people who were affected by yesterday’s strike, can find a place to work for the time being. Some lines make parts for Rivian, Toyota and Honda, so they won’t be affected at all. As long as the Chicago Assembly Plant doesn’t go on strike, we should be okay. There ARE people at work who would welcome having a few weeks off from work. From what I’ve read, the UAW strike pay is $500 a week. Unemployment only pays us a maximum of $362 per week. I hope the UAW workers get what they want (or at least most of it), but I just hope these strikes don’t have any effect on my job because I have bills to pay. I have a friend who works for the Jepp Plant in Toledo that went on strike yesterday. She was very excited to go on strike and send a message to the Big Three. A few other friends of mine work for Ford in Michigan. They are also united in the efforts of the UAW. I’m hoping these strikes don’t last for too long, but they have a long way to go as far coming close to agreements on anything it seems.
I get a Quora digest feed every day. I have always suspected that some of the answers and questions that are generated on Quora come from a Programs. Yesterday I was looking at one asking about the greatest double albums of the classic rock era. One of the answers mentioned Physical Graffiti by Led Zeppelin. The answer talked about Stairway to Heaven being on it. Only Stairway to Heaven ain’t on Physical Graffiti. It was on Led Zeppelin IV. Any human who is knowledgeable enough about classic rock to know that Physical Graffiti was a double album would never make the mistake of saying that Stairway to Heaven, which was released four years before Physical Graffiti, was on it. Someone missed making a sufficient connection and collation of the Led Zeppelin discography apparently, or the human posing the answer was not a Zeppelin fan.
Haha The only reason I know how old “Stairway to Heaven” is is because my friend at the time loved to say “Is there a bustle in your hedgerow? “ and said it all the time before he became deceased in a car accident long before I got divorced in 1975.
A long time ago, at least three decades, a discussion was on going about community college being the next two grades of public school due to the changes of modern life. That also included trade school. Because it would be the next level of public school it would be free, just like high school is. I cannot remember when that concept died, except I am sure the gqp was involved.
In 1965 the ratio was 20-1
BlueB, Biden had it in his 2021 budget — $90 billion for 2-yrs free community college, means-tested. But he couldn’t get enough Republicans to pass it.
One of my favorite econ experts, NYU Prof. Scott Galloway on CNN this AM: “There has always been tension between Capital and Labor, but over the last 40 years Capital has beaten the crap out of Labor”
POTUS Joe needs to lean to the left a bit more.
He needs to talk to Elizabeth Warren.
The economy is still tough, and the Fed raising interest rates because they want higher unemployment and depressed wages is absolutely inhumane.
The Fed is the problem.
Wall Street financial engineering is the problem.
Corporate greed is the problem.
Corporate welfare is the problem.
Landlords holding back inventory in order to inflate rent a grab any of their tenants’ pay increases (and beyond) is the problem.
I love POTUS Joe, but folks need to feel that he’s really on their side. Maybe we need a fireside chat.
There’s definitely a messaging gap between the things he’s been able to accomplish and how they are going to impact folks, eventually.
The best thing Dems have going for them is all of the horrible things Repugs have done to hurt women, POC, LGBTQ, and anyone who isn’t at least upper-middle class…and all of the things they want to do and are being quite open about, like killing Social Security and Medicare. But where’s the messaging?
That’s one thing that Orange Adolf does for those authoritarian, Christo-fascists, it’s lie to them and tells them he loves them and he feels what they are feeling. It’s frightening, but the fat sociopath connects with his lemmings.
Polling numbers show how well does a candidate lines up with how a voter feels about things now and in the future, and if they feel seen by and connected to the candidate.
Obviously, if you’re not a racist who cherry-picks the Bible to align with your worldview, and if you actually care about other human beings living in safety (the loving your neighbor and welcoming the stranger are lost on MAGAts), then you won’t be polling for tRUMPsky. The sad thing is that so many do hold those views and he has been able to feed off of their fear (hate is just amped up fear). Flies will eat sugar or sh/t.
It’s all about connection. And that’s what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown.
The tape that unrolled…
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/16/boebert-video-apologizes-beetlejuice-show-00116390
Said Boebert: “There’s no perfect blueprint for going through a public and difficult divorce, which over the past few months has made for a challenging personal time for me and my entire family. I’ve tried to handle it with strength and grace as best I can, but I simply fell short of my values on Sunday. That’s unacceptable and I’m sorry.”
https://jacobin.com/2023/09/united-auto-workers-uaw-strike-big-three-automakers-stock-buyback-shareholders
“…in the past twelve months, the Big Three automakers — General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis — have authorized $5 billion in stock buybacks, effectively giving billions of dollars to shareholders that could have gone to autoworkers.”
“On top of the stock buybacks, the Big Three have reported $21 billion in profits in just the first six months of 2023. Despite the enormous gains, the companies have cried poverty in response to union demands for wage increases to make up for decades of pay stagnation.”
Craig, It’s not just about CEO salaries, it’s about legalized gambling.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-ceo-says-uaw-proposal-could-force-bankruptcy-2023-09-14/
“Ford Motor (F.N) Chief Executive Jim Farley said Thursday the United Auto Workers union proposal to hike wages by 40%, cut workweeks and add new pension benefits could bankrupt the company.”
Then, of course, they will want a taxpayer bailout.
Unfettered capitalism does not work in a democracy. It’s right at home in an oligarchy, though. We have two guys, so far, with their own spaceships. Meanwhile, there are human beings who are either on the street or one paycheck away from it.
If the poor, white MAGAts ever figure out what’s actually good for them, POTUS Joe will win in a landslide. And, as the saying goes, they can’t cheat if it’s not close.
Ford didn’t take the bailout
Biden got us out of the 20 year Afghan quagmire (in a brilliant and efficient way not without some tragedy) that republicans got us into and is now employing some of those resources, but not American lives, to support a people that actually want to be free
Well, i was reading about Tull and Ian Anderson picked up the flute for a stage gimmick AFTER he was already a working musician. Took it up as a lark as an adult and is now probably most influential flutist ever 🤯
https://gizmodo.com/taylor-swift-gave-the-union-everything-sag-aftra-1850828995
“Taylor Swift Gave the Union Everything It Wanted”
“The singer-songwriter met the demands of striking SAG-AFTRA, including streaming residuals, to release The Eras Tour documentary.”
“In a middle finger to the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP), Swift boldly side-stepped major studios and approached AMC itself to distribute the movie to theaters across North America. She also approached SAG-AFTRA—of which Swift is a member—in order to meet its demands and struck an interim deal with the union to release the film.”
Please tell me that the MSM is covering that a sitting congressperson for the “party of family values” made a sex tape out of wedlock in a public place among hundreds of people who has 3 (or more?) children at home in need of mothering 🙏
They must have at least touched on it or she wouldn’t be apologizing….unless it was just Twitter what done it.
But I haven’t seen any news today.
But…….She didn’t fall short of her values, she actually DISPLAYED her values.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/16/politics/ken-paxton-impeachment-trial/index.html
“Texas AG Ken Paxton acquitted on 16 charges in state Senate impeachment trial”
“Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Saturday was acquitted on 16 charges in his state Senate impeachment trial over accusations of repeatedly abusing his office to help a donor.”
“Paxton had been impeached by the Texas House in May after he requested $3.3 million in taxpayer money to settle a lawsuit with former top staffers who had been fired after reporting the attorney general’s conduct to the Federal Bureau of Investigation in 2020.”
Here’s hoping he gets tagged for securities fraud, if he stops with the delays in bringing it to trial.
Sturg – Who?
Blue…Lauren Boebert.
The Republicans can make a more persuasive argument that the Federal Government is incompetent and unable to successfully address critical problems than the Democrats can make that they they are meeting the challenges. The Dems argue that they can “fix” problems like climate change, immigration, stagnant wages, and run effective and efficient programs. The easy evidence says not.
Peter Sellers Movie of the Week:
”The Bobo”
A fine flick about the famous Singing Blue Matador, set in Spain
Oh, didn’t know about the public fondling, just the vaping. Support the arts!
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/09/eric-adams-migrant-crisis-mayor-new-york-republican-flamethrower-for-2024.html
“Eric Adams Is Handing Republicans a Flamethrower for 2024. Again.
The problem with creating the impression of a nonexistent problem is that it becomes impossible to solve.”
Eric Adams is a disaster of a mayor: Corrupt. Self-serving. DINO.
“In 2022, New York City’s Democratic mayor Eric Adams wanted to talk about crime. To anyone who would listen, he repeated again and again that crime in the city was rampant… he said last year, echoing his campaign trail refrain that crime had reverted to 1990s levels. “We”—he said on the stump, implying the Democrat-controlled local government, “are waving a big white flag of surrender.”
“That rhetoric may have helped Adams win a crowded, low-turnout Democratic mayoral primary in 2021, but…the writer Ross Barkan pointed out in New York magazine, crime was up slightly over 2019 levels, sure, but homicides were down 75 percent since the early ’90s. Adams, his mind made up that “crime” was politically expedient for him, continued braying about it through the 2022 midterm election cycle. Who it was actually expedient for was New York Republicans, who were borderline giddy about the mayor’s gambit.”
“Since then, Adams has been undone, in part, by his own tactic. The problem with creating the impression of a nonexistent problem is that it becomes impossible to solve that problem, and Adams’ favorability, for that and a whole host of other reasons, has plummeted.”
“No longer as eager to talk about crime, he has settled on a new boogeyman as the 2024 election cycle heats up: the migrant crisis. “This issue will destroy New York City. Destroy New York City,” he said of the famed city of immigrants in public comments made last week. “They’re destroying us … the city we knew, we’re about to lose.”
“For years, Republicans have been desperately trying to sell the American public on a migrant crisis.”
“There are, in fact, a large number of migrants who have arrived in New York City over the past 12 months, more than 110,000 in total, according to the New York Times. Some have family ties to the city, while others are seeking asylum in a city with a reputation for welcoming immigrants, a legacy Adams has been eager to disavow.”
“This is all to say: How best to address the migration issue is an important consideration. But Adams is not only bungling the response, he’s actively choosing to politicize it in a way that helps Republicans.”
“He chose to give a no-bid $432 million contract to house and provide medical treatment for migrants to a company called DocGo that has zero experience furnishing those sorts of services. The company was already under investigation by the state attorney general’s office when he handed over the contract.”
“The Daily Stormer, the prominent neo-Nazi blog, praised the mayor’s remarks as “based” and “insightful.”
“It turns out that it’s never really possible to beat Republicans on their own talking points. But it is possible to get more money from Republican donors with Republican talking points.”
“As the publication The City reported, Adams enjoyed major financial support, in the form of donations to super PACs supporting his candidacy, from hedge fund manager Kenneth Griffin, a top Ron DeSantis and Republican megadonor, and Daniel Loeb, a fellow billionaire financier and top Republican benefactor.”
“Adams, of course, was a registered Republican himself from 1995 through 2002.”
She blamed it on the divorce.
Terrible.
So, because the progressive agenda focuses on the less-fortunate, Dems have difficulty effectively messaging how well the economy is doing. Inflation is high because so many have so much money that they are still comfortable spending, houses sold out, cars on months-long back-orders, record employment, record wages, a predicted recession that won’t materialize…
Things aren’t great for everyone, and inflation impacts low and fixed income households the hardest, but for conservatives to assert there isn’t a lot of prosperity is disingenuous.
It almost goes without saying that when they make efforts to reduce medical costs for fixed income seniors who can’t ride that economic wave, Republicans fight them every step of the way, every time
https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/ford-uaw-strike-stellantis-09-16-23/index.html
“Fourteen years ago, when the big three automakers were struggling to stay afloat, my administration and the American people stepped in to support them,” Obama said in the statement. “So did the auto workers in the UAW who sacrificed pay and benefits to help get the companies back on their feet.”
“Now that our carmakers are enjoying robust profits, it’s time to do right by those same workers so the industry can emerge more united and competitive than ever,” Obama said.
$120k trucks on back order for months! You can’t get ‘em if you want ‘em. $80k Denalis! They sell like hotcakes
NEW THREAD by Jack