70 thoughts on “Uncle Joe Undone”

  4. Politico poll released today – Biden 33, Sanders 20, Warren 15. 
     
    What Sturge said yesterday. 

  5. I just put up Palmer as a bit of counterweight to the “Biden is over” narrative.   I am still in for Liz or Harris, leaning towards Liz, but it’s a skoche irritating to see one poll send everyone up the wall.  Palmer is more than a tad goofy, but shows that everything is still up in the air,  and it will be a while yet till it’s not.

  7. From Craigs link, Kinda says it all if you are listening. If you believe that moderate voter support of Bernie doubled in the past 2 months, Ha , have I got a deal for you.

    Biden lost support over the past two months among Democrats who call themselves moderate or conservative (from 40% to 22%) with the shift among these voters accruing to both Sanders (from 10% to 20%) and Warren (from 6% to 16%).  Biden also lost support among liberals (from 24% to 15%), but this group’s backing has scattered to a variety of other candidates.

    One other thing, Because of the small sample size, this poll has a high margin of error of close to 6 percentage points. That means That in reality Biden’s real numbers could be 25% rather than 19% and  at same time Bernie’s real numbers could be 12% rather than 20%.  So what do we take from all this?  When dealing with low percentages such as these polls have(20% or lower in this poll) then the margin of error makes a big difference. 
    Jack

  8. Pat
    For your caption
    “A father daughter moment at Ye Old Shady Rest retirement home”
     
    Jack
     
     

  9. pogo,  that’s the Change Research Florida poll…  couldn’t find one like that from politico unless they are one in  the same.   is what you’re citing nationwide or a particular state?

  11. Oh yeah….   just wait a couple of months and there’s probably gonna be a new media darling.  It’s interesting to see the polls and speculate…   but I’m still with KGC on this…   not a single vote cast yet.

  12. I sent Kamala another contribution a couple of days ago. I see it as being really important that we/I offer tangible support to women of her stripe willing to commit her future in service to Our Country.

  14. a toothless watchdog can’t even bark now

    wapo:

    A long-serving Republican appointee to the Federal Election Commission announced his resignation Monday, leaving the polarized panel without a four-person quorum to conduct business for the first time in 11 years.
    Matthew Petersen, who has sided with his GOP colleagues in favor of less regulation of the election process, will leave the FEC at the end of the month. He did not specify a reason for his departure in his resignation letter to President Trump.
    Petersen has served as an FEC commissioner since President George W. Bush appointed him in 2008, beyond his six-year tenure.
    Without Petersen, the six-member panel is left with just three commissioners — one Republican, one Democrat and one independent — who are all serving expired terms. The seats formerly held by Democratic appointee Ann Ravel and Republican appointee Lee Goodman have remained vacant for years.

    [continues]

  16. I still like Elizabeth!  Mayor Pete would be an excellent Secretary of State.  He’s mesmerizing, fascinating, easy to listen to.  He knows his stuff! Rooting big time for 
    Notorious RBG!!!
    !!!

  17. One thing’s for sure- one of the candidates WILL BE the nominee.  
     
    …callin’ it, right now.

  20. Maybe if she wins the nomination she has to pick Sanders for VP?  It’s the ticket people seem to want- Bernie brings out the youth, minority, and indie votes, ironically.

    The candidates outside of the top 3 are polling so poorly, i can’t see any of them on the ticket.

  21. Some Biden stuff I’ve been reading
    Nate Silver at 538
    Joe Biden has an Iowa problem, not a national one
    He makes a very valid point that Iowa is not his territory, liberal whites dominate the party.
    Which means (my thoughts here) not only does Iowa not represent the country they don’t even represent Iowa. 
    There are some interesting things to think about, in his chart of favorability comparisons, there are three candidates that score higher than either Bernie or Biden.  Iowa could shake things up and caucus night progresses.

    Next from a Never Trumper with a lot of campaign experience. Interesting thing about these folks is since they are free from partisan obligations they pass on some interesting stuff.
    Let Biden be Biden, 

    Precious few people in 2020 are voting for the “best professor” or “best aligner of management and shareholder value” or even “candidate most in line with me philosophically.” Presidential politics has always been a personality contest. And personality is what Joe Biden has in spades.
    He and his team should embrace it. Gaffes and all.

     
     

  22. Warren should take Iowa after all they are her people,  Professors, college towns and urban white liberals. If she can’t win Iowa she can’t win anywhere.
    Jack

  23. Biden could play the gaffe into his corner with a simple sound bite,
    The gaffe is with me
    the gaffe is strong in this one
    etc
    Embrace his inner gaffer.

  24. jack,  “And personality is what Joe Biden has in spades. He and his team should embrace it. Gaffes and all.”  especially the embrace part.   let joe be lovable again with his unisex hugs and back pats.  they’ve put him in a straight jacket and taken away his real charm of warmth.
    and I agree with sturge about play up and laugh about the gaffes… self-deprecation, humility, humor etc.

  25. Biden’s team tried that this morning …not so much

    Also – in his case a gaffe isn’t just a misstatement — what about when he made fun of Pakistanis owning 7-11s

  26. KGC, and that is why he is having problems in Iowa,  amoung college/urban white liberals political correctness rules. Out in the real world not so much.
    Jack

  27. Jack
    I think people outside of those groups don’t approve of bullying and derision based on race
    Biden is basing his appeal on being pathetic and having had some bad things happen.   He has run for president three times and didn’t make through the primaries.   He obviously didn’t read the Stassen story all the way through
     

  28. I’m avoiding elderly old coots.  That leaves out Biden and Bernie

    I’m trying to avoid energetic old coots.  That leaves out Warren, but would approve if I had to as long as she had a much younger running mate.

     

  30. That Monmouth poll of only 500 people is pretty much an outlier except to average in with at least four other recent polls to see trends.

     

  31. Ages of all those I’m still keeping under consideration:  Bernie – 79; Biden – 78; Warren – 71; Klobuchar – 60; Harris – 56; Booker – 51; O’Rourke – 48; Castro – 46; Buttiegieg – 39

  32. I might be reaching a saturation point on the western movies. Last night I dreamed that for some reason I had a horse and the car being somehow inoperable, I rode the horse bareback all the way to Hwy 17. When I got to 17 I looked down and my stupid cat was walking beside us. So I stopped, grabbed up the cat, and started heading back to the house with him. He traveled well.
    On the way back, I hitched up at a honky-tonk and the cat and I went in to have a beer.  The cat was starting a fight and then I woke up.
    Make of that what you will, Sigmund.
     

  33. I have been watching a lot of the Democratic presidential events on C-Span for the last few weeks. The organic enthusiasm of crowds for Warren is clearly major league compared to the rest. The woman is at the top of her game.

  34.  

    The lungs of the earth are burning.  Virtually all countries have deforestrated in some way.  Carbon based fuels still main source of energy.  I have nine direct descendants … I wish them well. 

     

     

  40. There’s a difference between predicting and forecasting. Fortune tellers predict; weather people forecast. The latter is based on probabilities; the former on whimsy. Can I forecast the outcome of the 2020 election? Of course. Based on my decades of observing the political scene, I forecast, with sixty-percent confidence, that a Democratic Party candidate will become president in January, 2021.

  41. Interpreting Mr Flatus’ interpretation of Mr Sturgeone’s dream :
    It’ll be raining cats and horses

  42. Craig, Liz certainly looks fit; but, she’ll be Justice Ginsburg’s current age when she finishes her eight years should she be elected. I’ll be the first to say Ginsburg is a remarkable American; a woman for the ages. Could she have stood up to the rigors of being our president?

  43. Poobah, Emerson sez Biden 31, Sanders 24 and Warren 15.  Monmouth is an outlier and it’s a small sample size.  Not saying you are wrong, but both polls released today show Lizzie 5 points below the Monmouth poll.  Overall if anyone is getting a boost right now it’s Bern!  BUT, in Iowa polls, Lizzie is ahead in the latest Change Research Poll – by 11 points over Joe and Bern!, but the Monmouth poll there a week before had Joe up by 9 over Lizzie and 19 over Bern!  Hard to think any of the Iowas polls are worth a damn (look at them at fivethirtyeight and you’ll see what I mean) – the roller coaster architects at Cedar Point would be proud. 

  44. If there’s any overbearing, racist, rapist, russian agent is running for president, I’ll make him a 100-1 longshot.
     

  45. I think we should all ask our Congresscritters to publicly thank Mr trump for offering to put up the next G7 conference at his expense in one of his facilities. 

  49. I think a large portion of Biden’s strength in the poll is really undecided voters.

  51. Right now I believe all the polls.  We are so far out from anything that the polls are just drifting in the breeze so the results are good, for that poll. 
    Old Joe needs to step aside.  The non-Democratic Party member needs to be given a ticket back to Russia.  Liz still has baggage, which is what the general public probably remembers about her (I read her autobiography, she is a wonderful candidate).  Harris is so good the media is ignoring her, the same with Amy.  There are a couple of the men, but for the life of me I have problems sorting out who is who amongst them.
    I am waiting until the first frost before considering the polls to be showing solid information. That should give the public a little time to search out what they want, or listen to their leaders, to get a bit of knowledge about the candidates.  

  54. Been away all day playing games with girlfriends.  I lost $3.00….  now how the hell am I going to pay for my ice coffee at Dunkin Donuts tomorrow…
     
    BlueB….  I’m waiting for the first snow fall.

  56. Priorities, priorities. Indians v Tigers just starting; playing in Detroit. Guess where my undivided attention is going…
     

  57. Go Spiders !

    Detroit is down 1-4. Looks like Mr Flatus is having a good evening.

    MBWS’s are just starting against evil comiskey’s captive St Paul Saints. 0-0. Go, Senators !

  58. If there’s any overbearing, bedbug-raddled, racist, rapist, russian agent running for president, I’ll make him a 100-1 longshot.

  59. Flatus: “Liz certainly looks fit; but, she’ll be Justice Ginsburg’s current age when she finishes her eight years should she be elected.”

    Huh? Liz was born in 1949. Ginsburg 1933. Warren would be significantly younger than Ginsburg today, after
    two terms. (79 vs 86).

  60. …never noticed Vincent D’Onofrio in “Moonstruck”, before!
     
    All the viable candidates are old, it’s a non-issue.  I’d venture that younger voters prefer an older candidate, because we all realize how stupid the internet has made us.

  61. You realize that Warren will win Iowa, Sanders will win New Hampshire, and Biden will win South Carolina, right? 
     
    That is, if Biden doesn’t gaffe-out, first.  His gaffes aren’t charming or excusable, they’re disqualifying.  He didn’t even know what in what states the recent mass-murders were, when it was the most discussed issue in the nation.  He’ll be exposed, quickly, once the field is thinned.

  63. Young people and their grandparents are united against the middling generation. They both understand the weaknesses and follies of the muddling middlings.  

  65. Speaking of loans : Lawrence O’Donnell says that deutschebank lent trump the mysterious $360 M!LL!ON$ because it was co-signed by russian oligarchs. 
    1. Lock ’em ALL up. 2. NEWCOMBE*
    *figuratively

  66. The obese mole’s loverboy, king kim, is building a nuclear missile launcher submarine. When finished, kimmy will be able to nuke Twin Land Fills, Idaho.  Tough luck, all you trumpsters.

  68. I for one don’t buy into the Iowa is the end of the road.  I understand why some do (Poobah) but a buncha corners don’t give me any more confidence in their ability to choose the leader of the Free World than do 13 NH insomniac shitkickers from Dixville Notch – and I lived in NH for a half dozen years.
     
    RR, whatcha say?

  69. Watch this and your head will explode.  I just picked up my ear from the corner of the room.
    Joe Walsh promotes arming small children ages 12 to 4 years old!

     
     

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