As if having a large number of candidates wasn’t complicated enough, a changing electorate and new ideas about what it takes to win make it even more so.
Strap in. 2020 could be a long ugly ride for both democratic candidates and their supporters.
User-Supported News Commentary Hosted by Craig Crawford
As if having a large number of candidates wasn’t complicated enough, a changing electorate and new ideas about what it takes to win make it even more so.
Strap in. 2020 could be a long ugly ride for both democratic candidates and their supporters.
jace, if dems could find in that pile (mosh pit perhaps a better description) of presumptive presidents that meets what a combination of preferences these polls show, he/she would be a winner. fat chance imho. someone we’ve not yet considered hopefully will crawl out of the woodwork. polls cited in your link: A recent Monmouth University poll showed 56 percent of Democrats prefer a candidate who would run strongest against President Trump over one who shares their views on issues. Electability represents Biden’s central argument. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, however, found something different. In that survey, 56 percent of Democrats preferred the candidate whose views come closest to their own. It also found that 55 percent want a candidate seeking larger, costlier changes over smaller steps easier to move through Congress. That augurs well for Warren, who backs a new wealth tax, a breakup of giant technology firms, and “Medicare for All,” or longshot Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington, who has centered his campaign around action to slow climate change. Biden, 76 years old, and Sanders, 77, lead Democratic polls. But nobody knows whether their standing reflects a floor or a ceiling. In the NBC/WSJ poll, six in 10 Americans expressed unease about a candidate older than 75. Worse for Sanders, seven in 10 balked at the idea of a socialist candidate. Yet the younger universe of self-described Democratic primary voters split evenly on that idea. Americans overall advocated more help from government, not less. looks like that… Read more »
so who pops up at 6:05 first thing this morning?
wapo: Beto O’Rourke will run for president in 2020…
O’Rourke, the former congressman who lost his 2018 bid to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, has entered the presidential race after months of speculation and meetings with high-ranking Democrats, including former president Barack Obama.
O’Rourke, 46, who represented a congressional district along the border for three terms, built a deep fundraising base during his 2018 run, for which he raised more than $80 million.
This is a developing story. It will be updated.
Former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke announces 2020 presidential bid Former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke, whose ultimately unsuccessful bid for the U.S. Senate in 2018 earned him a fervent and national following, announced Thursday morning that he is running for president in 2020. “This is a defining moment of truth for this country and for every single one of us,” O’Rourke said sitting alongside his wife, Amy, in his official announcement video released Thursday morning. “The challenges that we face right now; the interconnected crises in our economy, our democracy and our climate have never been greater.” In kicking off his campaign, O’Rourke hit on a laundry list of policy issues that will dominate the discussion throughout the Democratic primary, from health care, to combatting climate change and reframing the debate around an issue President Donald Trump has sought to define throughout his first two years in office: immigration. “All of us, wherever you live, can acknowledge that if immigration is a problem, it’s the best possible problem for this country to have, and we should ensure that there are lawful paths to work, to be with family, and to flee persecution,” O’Rourke said. O’Rourke also said his campaign will be about confronting “the hard truths of slavery, and segregation and suppression in these United States of America.” The native Texan also previewed an upcoming event in his hometown of El Paso on March 30, which will likely serve as an official launching pad for his presidential bid. O’Rourke, 46, will… Read more »
link to above story:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/texas-congressman-beto-orourke-announces-2020-presidential-bid/story?id=61660570
O’Rourke rallied supporters to his cause in a campaign video saying we are “the last great hope of Earth” in a moment of “maximum peril.”
Happy Pi day to all.
Klobuchar and Harris, or other Democratic women under 70 years old. Second choice is Democratic Party members under 70 years old.
I’ve been going to various sites this morning reading the comments section to see what’s being said about Beto entering the race. There’s an awful lot of negative comments coming from obvious trolls. Makes me think the right is kinda nervous about him… good!
and a happy pi day to you too, bluebronc. but what other kind of pie really makes a happy day for you?
myself, boringly traditional along seasonal tastes like mince for winter, peach when fresh in season, pecan or pumpkin for autumn, key lime for summer, but coconut crème anytime.
vanity fair serendipitously, coincidentally, conveniently or maybe downright planned has a long cover story on beto today. here are its concluding paragraphs: But unlike Trump, O’Rourke can appear almost too innocent to be a politician—too decent, too wholesome, the very reason he became popular also the same reason he could be crucified on the national stage. I tell O’Rourke that perhaps he’s simply too normal to be president. “Whether you meant it or not, I take that as a compliment,” he says. It’s 10:30 P.M. and Amy is now curled up on a chair next to Beto, scrolling through e-mails. The kids are asleep. I ask O’Rourke if he could see himself among the presidential biographies on his shelf—Washington, Lincoln, Kennedy. “I haven’t really thought about that,” he says. “I think, ego-wise, we’re going to be O.K. if we don’t run. Where we won’t be O.K. is, if we don’t run and come to the conclusion later on, if we had run, man, this wouldn’t have happened. Things would have been a lot better. Or—” “You didn’t do everything you could,” Amy says, completing his sentence. “We didn’t do everything that we could,” he says. Beto O’Rourke seems, in this moment, like a cliff diver trying to psych himself into the jump. And after playing coy all afternoon about whether he’ll run, he finally can’t deny the pull of his own gifts. “You can probably tell that I want to run,” he finally confides, smiling. “I do. I think I’d… Read more »
among the many photos in that vanity fair piece, bet this one gets the most tv exposure. has something about it that’s reminiscent of JFK’s pics with caroline.
on second thought, it’s the dog. I agree with the twitterers whom the el paso times noted: Beto O’Rourke teases presidential run in ‘Vanity Fair,’ Twitter focuses on his dog
On Friday, Vanity Fair released a cover and story featuring Beto O’Rourke, addressing a potential 2020 presidential run.
However, many Twitter users couldn’t help but notice O’Rourke’s dog, Artemis.
Artemis is seen on the corner of the cover looking off into the distance. Not surprisingly, the Internet picked up on the pensive dog.
and another Texan talks today in the guardian:
Julián Castro: the US should launch a Marshall plan in Central America
The US should launch a 21st-century Marshall plan in Central America to help stricken countries combat gangs and poverty to stem the flow of undocumented immigrants to America’s southern border, the Democratic presidential candidate Julián Castro has proposed.
Castro, a former mayor of the Texan city of San Antonio and cabinet member under Barack Obama, is calling for the US to emulate Harry Truman’s 1948 aid program that helped western Europe recover from the ravages of the second world war. In a modern echo, the US would inject resources and know-how into the struggling societies of Central America as a humane alternative to Donald Trump’s proposed wall.
In an interview with the Guardian, Castro said that his proposal for a new Marshall plan would stand in contrast to the cruelty of Trump’s immigration crackdown.
“Extending a hand of friendship, of opportunity to countries in our hemisphere – this approach is much more in keeping with our values,” he said. “This is a mutually beneficial way to engage Central Americans, not a slap in the face like the wall.”
[continues]
Mayor Pete is my choice right now
Active involvement in Central America? Only with Cuba’s and Mexico’s and Canada’s and the OAS’s enthusiastic support.
flatus, how goes it with your frequent falls problem? did the doc ever find an answer and solution? since you’ve been rather quiet on the trail lately, I worried that all might not be well. glad to see you back.
a cody beto or beto cody ticket would give the folks who want gov’t executive experience on the ticket plus some time put in on the legislative side. both were either mayor or councilman of decent size cities and both have had multiple years elected by diverse constituencies to represent them in congress/senate. they also have a record of bi-partisan cooperation.
it also helps on the superficial side that they are tall, lean*, energetic and not ugly.
*lean meaning athletic not shakespeare’s cautionary “Let me have men about me that are fat, Sleek-headed men and such as sleep a-nights. Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look, He thinks too much; such men are dangerous.” Julius Caesar Act 1, Scene 2
No BetoNo Biden LOSERS
It’s not too complicated. People need to think about the mid-terms and the people who won. They need to think about who is going to turn out and most important how to stop the greed old perverts from obstructing voting. And the media frankly is full of shit
Pat, I finally found a doc who blends competence with caring. She did the battery of tests along with a CT-scan of my bruised gourd. Bottom line: I’m getting old and that coupled with an over-aggressive prescribed use of a neurological agent was putting me over the edge. Reducing that drug by 50-pct did reduce the dizziness; but, that change has dramatically increased chronic pain levels and ability to sleep. So, I’m trying a full dose before bed and a half dose in the morning–so far so good.
On a brighter note, Yesterday I spent much of my time feeding my new shredder with a couple of years’ accumulation of non-trashables. Finally I found a shredder that matches my enthusiasm. It is a Fellowes79Ci. That makes six shredders spread out around the house. Lubricating the blades is very important. I’ve started using Canola oil–it seems to do quite well and can stand the high heat without a problem.
when thinking about viable winners, consider these voter demographics found by pew research center last year A wide – and growing – generational divide in partisanship The generational gap in partisanship is now more pronounced than in the past, and this echoes the widening generational gaps seen in many political values and preferences. Millennial voters (born 1981 to 1996) have had a Democratic tilt since they first entered adulthood; this advantage has only grown as they have aged. Democrats enjoy a 27-percentage-point advantage among Millennial voters (59% are Democrats or lean Democratic, 32% are Republican or lean Republican). In 2014, 53% of Millennial voters were Democrats or leaned Democratic, 37% tilted toward the GOP. Millennials remain more likely than those in older generations to call themselves independents (44% vs. 39% of Gen Xers, 32% of Boomers and 27% of Silents); still, the roughly two-to-one Democratic advantage among Millennials is apparent both in “straight” and “leaned” partisan affiliation. Generation X voters (born 1965 to 1980) are more divided in their partisan attachments, but also tilt toward the Democratic Party (48% identify as or lean Democratic, 43% identify as or lean Republican). The balance of leaned partisan identification among Gen X voters has been relatively consistent over the past several years. Baby Boomer voters (born 1946 to 1964) are nearly evenly divided (48% identify as or lean Democratic, 46% Republican). The Silent Generation (born 1928 to 1945) is the only generational group that has more GOP leaners and… Read more »
I suspect ‘Silents’ are concerned about redistribution of diminishing social assets to the younger people among us.
All I have to say is 3.14159265359….
Rounded to 3.1416 which of course means we start celebrating at 1600 hours today.
My millennial is in the 59%. He can’t afford to be in the 32%. (He’s like his daddy politically – and I’m so proud of that).
Flatus – the White Silents who lean Republican have to be the ones who have their own retirement secured and aren’t concerned about Republican drum beating to reform Medicare. Regardless, I guess that rightward shift confirms what some say – that age and dementia are closely correlated.
Flatus , rounded to 1900 for me. ?
My Boomer daughter and her family are fire-breathing Dems as are/were all of my family starting with my parents. Even though I have a concealed carry, I’d be risking serious mayhem if I put an impeach Trump sticker on the car.
As a long time former election worker… I can attest that the Silent Generation ( actually the white or grey haired generation) have a higher percentage of them show up to vote than younger generations. Millennials need to give a damn about their future and get off their asses and vote. If the GenXers and Millennials voted in greater numbers they would far outweigh the old fart votes. Hope they do it in 2020.
Beto decided he was running a long time ago — he was just waiting to announce in coordination with the Vanity Fair article. I think his success in Texas was less about him and more about how much people hate Ted Cruz
If he can run as a big giant loser then Black Stacy should get into the race too
;
Hey, Renee, I’m an Ohlfahrt. I believe that I’ve earned the right to vote any damn way that I please. FWIW, I’ve not missed casting my ballot for any election, including primaries and specials, in which I was eligible to vote since I was 21-years old.
today declared ky gov bevin: “Kentucky will always fight for life… Always!”
2 days ago he signed into law a gun un-controllable act allowing conceal carry with zero training. strange way to fight for life, matt.
You might wanna edit that last post, KGC.
bink, yeah. kgc shoulda written “future Georgia u.s.senator stacy Abrams”
at least that’s what schumer is hoping for
roger redux from wapo:
[…]
A federal judge set a Nov. 5 trial date for Roger Stone on charges of lying to Congress and obstructing justice in a Thursday hearing where she also postponed any decision of whether a new book by the longtime GOP operative and Trump confidant violated a gag order in his case.
U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson in Washington said the trial would be expected to last at least two weeks on the accusations that Stone lied about his efforts to gather information about hacked Democratic Party emails during the 2016 presidential campaign.
Stone, 66, has pleaded not guilty and remains free pending trial with travel limitations.
Jackson said she was setting aside for now her assessment of explanations from Stone’s attorneys about delays and misrepresentations about the release date of a book by Stone with an updated introduction that criticizes special counsel Robert S. Mueller III.
“I don’t intend to dwell on it this morning,” said Jackson, who on Wednesday completed sentencing in the Mueller prosecution of former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort. “I really have not had the opportunity . . . to study the exhibits in any detail so I will continue to review them and decide if I have any questions.”
[continues]
.
lord, please shineth a light on our law to let floridians taketh guns to church
Bink are you talking about the Black Stacey reference. It’s from the primaries when a white Stacey was running
against Stacey Adams and it was in common use.
Stacey Adams spoke at SxSW and said running for president is still on the table. I guess Chuck hasn’t talked to her
https://www.theroot.com/stacey-abrams-a-2020-presidential-run-is-definitely-on-1833268291
Yeah, i sure as shit going to refer that way, but you do you, i guess.
…actually, i’ll come out as firmly against identifying or qualifying people based on race, regardless of etymology, full stop.
Flatus… yeah… I’ve voted in every primary and election since the age of 18. I wish there were more people like us. Too many people sit on their hands during elections and are totally tuned out.
KGC… all this shouting about losers… you sound just like Trump today.
Just because Trump has abused the term doesn’t make any less true in the case of some of the candidates
Biden has run several times and always self-destructs and his voting record is not so hot
Beto has no record but he does have a past and I don’t think a Kennedy poseur brings much to the table.
“My sense is that Beto O’Rourke doesn’t want to be president as much as he wants to be an indie movie about a guy running for president,” Chicago Tribune columnist Rex Huppke added.
hollywoodreporter: According to today’s opinion, Trump’s contention that he doesn’t have to face Summer Zervos’ lawsuit while in office conflicts with the fundamental principle that the United States has a “government of laws and not of men.” In a lengthy decision of great significance, a New York appeals court has affirmed a decision that President Donald Trump must face a defamation lawsuit brought by season-five Apprentice contestant Summer Zervos. The dispute arose after audio was published of Trump boasting to Access Hollywood‘s Billy Bush about grabbing women’s genitals. As Trump was under fire for his comments, Zervos came forward to accuse him of kissing her twice in 2007 and attacking her in a hotel room. “I never met her at a hotel,” responded Trump, who would also counter allegations from his accusers as “100 percent fabricated and made-up charges, pushed strongly by the media and the Clinton campaign.” Zervos alleged in her lawsuit that she was branded a liar. That led to Trump arguing that the U.S. Constitution didn’t allow this case to proceed right away thanks to the Supremacy Clause, which Trump’s attorney, Marc Kasowitz, posited meant “that state governments, including their courts, refrain from interfering in the operations of the federal government.” “No one is above the law,” ruled New York state judge Jennifer Schecter a year ago in a decision that allowed the suit to continue. On Thursday, the First Appellate Division in New York affirmed that holding. Appellate judge Dianne Renwick… Read more »
“because the trial proceedings have not been paused during the pendency of the appeal, he’ll likely have to give a deposition in the coming months as both sides pursue the truth of what happened”
I repeat
he’ll likely have to give a deposition
as our trail counselor so adroitly says: bwahahaha
wapo:
The Senate passed a resolution Thursday to overturn President Trump’s declaration of a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border, with 12 Republicans joining all Democrats to deliver a bipartisan rebuke to the president.
The disapproval resolution passed the House last month, so the 59-41 Senate vote will send the measure to the Trump’s desk.
[continues]
and from NYTimes:
Ultimately, about a dozen Republicans joined Senate Democrats in supporting the House-passed resolution of disapproval: Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Roy Blunt of Missouri, Susan Collins of Maine, Mike Lee of Utah, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Rob Portman of Ohio, Mitt Romney of Utah, Marco Rubio of Florida, Patrick J. Toomey of Pennsylvania, Rand Paul of Kentucky, Roger Wicker of Mississippi, and Mr. Moran.
NPR:
House Votes Almost Unanimously For Public Release Of Mueller Report
[…]
“I rise in support of this resolution because I want the whole truth and nothing but the truth to come to light in this matter,” said Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas, on the House floor before the vote. “Full transparency is the only way to prevent future speculation.”
The final vote tally was 420 members voting in favor, no members voting against, and four members (Rep. Justin Amash, R-Mich., Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., Thomas Massie, R-Ky. and Paul Gosar, R- Ariz.) voting “present.”
[continues]
All this wonderful Thursday afternoon political excitement going on and there I was doing my Spring-thing in the yard and at the entrance to Kumcho’s forest. If the Weather Service long range forecasts hold out, we shan’t have any more freezes before Summer. In other words, planting seas0n has arrived in central South Carolina.
I hope the Republican congressional delegation has finally realized they will be going down with SFB if they don’t step away. I hope today is not a one off
Beware the ides of March, Flatus.
Of course Beto uses his hands a lot when he communicates. He has useful, normal-sized hands. I can’t wait for the closeup of their handshake at a debate.
I actually like Hickenlooper, or at least I’ve liked every interview I’ve ever heard him give. Booker or Biden are more likely. I think Beto gets tagged for the VP candidate to provide the needed momentum in the general. Bernie’s time has passed. I don’t care much for any of the others who are running.
Vote early, vote often. I attend caucuses, too.
I am impressed by O’Rourke’s energy and friendly puppy style. I don’t have much confidence in him on foreign policy, because I haven’t heard him talk about Rep of Congo, Sudan, Chile, Latvia, or Kurdistan. If he gets the small or mythical ones right, he probably has a handle on the big ones.
If I were still advising on criminal law cases, I’d probably have to change my courtroom strategy today. The Silents have changed from 43% Dem to 59% ripper in the last decade. I used to advise lawyers to pick women of retirement age for juries. The odds were that these women had seen a bit of life and maybe been kicked around a bit by fate. Maybe they had grandson or beloved nephew who’d been in a similar legal pickle as my defendant. Older women were usually serious, but understanding and kind. They listened. If they are rippers today, would they also have changed character as jurors ?
The worst to have on the jury were the middle-aged businessfolks : real estate, insurance, home siding, auto sales, etc. These guys were ready to convict even before they were selected from the jury pool. They were ready to convict because they figured that was what they were there for. Otherwise their god would have found them a way to weasel out of jury duty.
Of course, I generalize horribly and unfairly, but my job was to advise my guy to pick people whose ears would at least be open to the defense. The odds were in our favor with the nice old ladies, and against us with the shiny fellow in the coat, tie and starched collar.
Is it that the media isn’t ready for a woman president?
It looks like Kirsten Gillibrand is getting her 15 minutes of campaign fame. I don’t like the way this campaign is shaping up and I feel like have to make a decision soon. My first choice is Amy but I don’t think it is happening for her. Then Sherrod dropped ou. I may have to hop on the Kamala bandwagon. At least she has a sense of humor. I also think she is a strategic thinker both about issues and how to move her agenda.
Dear SFB, please review Jones v. Clinton. Bwahahahahah. Speak away, asswipe, and welcome to the wonderful world of stare decisis. BTW, welcome to your deposition. As with so many lying pricks his first lie will be his 2nd word -do. (As in “I do”).
You are the “grassroots”. If you like a particular candidate, go bring them up in conversation with your local community.
i think i’m old enough to remember theat Clinton was a joke at the inception of his candidacy- future two-term president (at that time).
You want a female President? Nominate Nancy P.
She doesn’t want to be President? That is exactly why IT MUST BE HER.
(Sorry Xrep, you’re out!)
…the cool kids celebrate early.
…in the suggested videos afer that song: free kung-fu movie, “Young Hero of Shaolin”, 107 min.
https://youtu.be/wrSJZQ1N3nY
“You’re out” – Mr Bink
I dunno what that means, but okay. Yunno, I see good in all the Dem candidates, even Gillibrand. I could vote for any of them in the election. Plus Stacy Abrams.
What if trump has to run his campaign from a cell in Ossining, N.Y. ? D’you think that would help pence, kasich, rubio, rmoney, graham, santorum, haley, ernst, jindal, runt pol, pompeo, thune, gowdy, flake, or cruz to jump into the race ? Or, anybody else ?
Ms Dallas,
It’s good to read you again. Thanks for coming back.
X
40 people shot dead, 48 wounded in Christchurch, New Zealand terrorist attacks at 2 mosques; 4 right wing terrorists (one identified as an Ausie) are in custody, one a female. They used AR-15s, as were used in Las Vegas and Sandy Hook.
trump wants to cut social security. That’d shoot his base in the wallet.
Are all the big name rippers so broke that the Party is stuck with this raving lunatic & traitorous skunk ?
Am I the only one around here who doesn’t believe he will be re-nominated ?
I’m used to being wrong, so if I am, please explain it to me. I can take it. Honest.
new thread