By SJWNY, a Trail Mix Contributor
Advice to the Democrats: Do not listen to the pollsters. Not today, not next month, not on November 7th. Think & act as if you are 10 points behind. Run as if every single state is up for play. Treat all Voters with respect; do not be dismissive. You need these fellow Americans now more than ever. This election cycle has been about emotion more than facts. Take every opportunity to speak out & set the record straight immediately. Thomas Dewey blew it, even after everyone had written Harry Truman off – because the only Poll that matters is on Election Day.
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92 thoughts on “Dewey Defeats Truman”
True. However, the Dewey fiasco was not based on a scientific poll.
oh. And, WOOHOOOOOOOO !
Why the Clintons Don’t Fear the Coming Armageddon With Donald Trump
By Joe Klein
WooHoo to you too 😉
Complacency is an enabler. Just this morning I’m reading articles saying how Mr Trump is going down to a massive defeat this November; Secretary Clinton all but guaranteed victory. Okey dokey. Stuff like this can lead to over confidence on one side & fire up the base on the other. The Democrats can get fat & sassy after November 8th. Until then, stay hungry. Too much at stake this year.
Shot across the bow of good ship Hillary – Trump claims she is the original “birther’. Complete BS, but it is what can be expected from now until he is sitting in a Drump retirement home. The strategy necessary to stop him is going to be tricky. Even the usual “caught in bed with a dead woman or a live boy” might not work.
Yo, Hillary: Hit Donald Where It Hurts
by Michael Tomasky
It’s a crazy year & nothing is guaranteed. If you believe in something, stand up & be counted. Throughout history too many people did too little & got the government they deserved. I’m hoping everyone works hard this year & gets the government we earned.
whskyjack “She apologized for not being clearer and for the pain that caused. It’s a woman thing. Us guys don’t do that.”
Craig: “Sort of like not asking for directions”
Jamie: Loud Sigh
What women’s Words Really Mean:
“Bush, Romney pullouts strike me as an insult to their own party voters who have made this decision, giving Trump more running room to remake the party without them ….”
craig, I agree with you and jace and think he’ll continue to make use of anti-establishment stunts to trick the media into giving him even more (if that’s possible) free time and multiple sound byte reruns. wouldn’t be surprised if he ups and announces merrick garland would be his pick – or at least 1st in the list– for scotus reasoning that who knows what crazy liberal Hillary/bernie would choose thus sticking it to the senate establishment, giving the media meat for a free ride and entertaining his troops at the same time.
“rippers’ credo : family values means fewer than 4 wives, and fiscal conservative means fewer than 5 bankruptcies.”
xr, he sure believes in keeping all the $$ values within the family.
and on this topic, last month wonkette’s “Donald Trump Is The Family Values Candidate All His Ex-Wives Have Been Waiting For” noted some outliers who really do believe he has them:
Here is a thing we didn’t really expect to see in 2015: a mainstream press article (sorta mainstream, at least — CNBC.com isn’t exactly a niche website like “Marine Propulsion News,” whose newsletter we inexplicably got signed up for) with the completely unironic headline “How family values helped Donald Trump build his empire.” We saw that and wondered how exactly we could top its snarky winking tone. But no, this is a completely sincere paean to the values that made Donald Trump a great man, and “writer” Eric Schiffer is either a complete Trumpsucking boob or the best satirist since Paul Verhoeven (Starship Troopers was satire, right? Please?) We just can’t tell — it reads like Waylon Smithers writing a C. Montgomery Burns fanfic.
Great post, sj and I love your line — Complacency is an enabler.
If only our founding fathers had polls.
I would agree that Trump can and very well might increase white male turnout over Romney’s numbers. However if in doing so he manages to drive up turn out among women and minorities he still has a tough road as he is sure to lose those two demographics by even larger margins than Romney. If he gains a couple of million votes among white males and loses a couple of million among other voting blocks, the advantage still goes to Clinton.
Holy choking. Our good neighbors to the north in Alberta are running from the smoke…it reminds me of the BP oil spew. Oil shale…the rock that burns! Another warning to humans about fossil fuels. A note to the USA to make sure we do not bring back coal. Alberta citizens did benefit from the oil shale…their health care costs were the lowest in Canada because of the money from the oil shale industry. That will change and their lives have changed forever. Money and fossil fuels. Which brings me to my point…why lie to humans about bringing back jobs of old? It is 2016, not 1980!
SJ, great thought and exactly what I believe. Even Bernie is following your advice, although the crowds are getting smaller. (<100 in McDowell County, 1000 in Charleston , 2000-3000 in Morgantown) not bad crowds, but he’s choosing smaller venues to make them appear crowded. Trump pulled in around 13,000 in Charleston yesterday (he claimed it was 28,000, but the Civic Center where it was held has a capacity of 14,000 and the Charleston Gazette reports that it was @ 95% full.
Couldn’t agree more. Democrats from the top of the ticket all the way down to dog catcher need to fight this election for every last vote, and go after those votes as though the well being of the nation depended on them. Because in point of fact it does.
Too bad the election fortune tellers didn’t foresee that the fortune makers were really going to take over!
The USA is not the only place where democracy has gone awry, Boaty McBoatface. The result of online voting. I remember when El Paso had a contest to name their new baseball team. A guy from Las Cruces won the contest with The Chihuahuas. He immediately started receiving death threats, however, the name and logo eventually caught on.
The Bush / Romney pullouts are really rather pathetic, a stunt very much equivalent to Trump having a temper tantrum and not showing up for the debate. They get to pat themselves on the back and say I took a stand and boycotted the convention. Big deal! If they are serious about their distaste for Trump they need to get some skin in the game. Go to the convention and raise hell, or find their way onto the Sunday talk shows and start putting the heat on Trump. Instead, they are going to hide in the bushes and watch the game play out. if Trump goes down they claim partial credit. if he wins then they can say that they had conflicting engagements during the convention. After all they are ‘principled’ conservatives.
sjwny…I agree we cannot be complacent about this election. The threat of a Trump White House should motivate all decent people to work harder than they have for a Democratic Party. A massive defeat is essential this year.
Also…I went to Portland yesterday and attended the Bill Clnton event.
He looked strong and healthy, much better than the few times I saw him in 2008.
The crowd was enthusiastic and optimistic. Talking to several people I noted an understanding that we all need to work harder than ever this year.
So you’re thinking that increasing the decreasing favorable demographic while increasing the increasing unfavorable demographics could end up biting him in the ass? Let’s hope.
SJ… this blog has always had a lot of humor and snark going on. But don’t let it fool you… methinks we all know the consequences of this election and take it seriously.
Jace… I agree with you… it’s not enough to not show up to the Republican convention. If you don’t think Trump will make a decent president, state it and explain why. Not showing up is the cowardly way out.
I’m not sure, but women are the largest single demographic, and somewhat more likely to vote than men. Me thinks that Hell hath no fury like a voting block scorned.
from Jamie’s link:
Jamie…. what women’s words really mean… ROFLMAO!!
There was never any doubt in my mind that Bernie would take WV, and we won’t know until Tuesday what the margin will be, but I did see with some interest that the PPP poll done through 5/1 showed an 8 point margin, compared with a 28 point margin in February. Strange doin’s here in WBGV.
Democratic Primary Votes as of May 4
Pollsters appear to have a problem underestimating Trump support. In the last several primaries, the RealClear average of polls in those states averaged 9pts below what he actually got at the ballot box. Could be due to last-minute surges they didn’t have time to measure, but something is amiss.
I honestly think there is a fairly large group of people ashamed to admit they are supporting Trump. I also suspect the women numbers may be off as a lot of GOP women will be crossing over to Hillary. Pollsters beware: A whole lot of lying going on.
BTW, it looks as if Bernie will be on the hook for the chartered costs for his Pope stalking trip to Rome. When the Pope says, it’s not political, so does the FEC. Not a campaign expense.
You might have nailed it Jamie. Among the findings in this study of Trump performing better in online polls than in telephone surveys: “Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are less likely to say that they support him when they’re talking to a live human than when they are in the anonymous environment.”
Hey yesterday everyone was all about will Republicans choose party over country and today you are critical of the Bushes and Mittens for choosing not to participate — so what’s up with that?
I think it would be great if they all said they were staying home
Yes Dear. };-)
(grin, duck and run)
yeah…. but… we are asking them to do more than just not participate… we are asking them to tell the country why they are choosing not to participate…. why won’t they support the orange jackass. Choosing not to participate, IMO, is a start… but if they want their party to continue to be taken seriously they need to speak up.
But then again…. I see your point…
KC, note that I’m not critical of anyone rejecting Donald as the Repug nominee. I love the disarray.
The “honeydew” list is getting longer by the second. };-)
Oh lookie see what Bernie got around to tweeting today. Anyone want to take bets on who will get the credit for this idea Hillary voiced ages ago?
Bernie Sanders @SenSanders 1h1 hour ago
We have a moral responsibility to help working families in the fossil fuel industry find new jobs as we shift toward a clean energy economy.
Yes! How many football games are lost because the team got cocky before the final whistle? Good post! It’s actually what happened to the “inevitable” candidate in 2008. This time, they thought if they ignored Bernie, and sneered at his supporters, it would be enough to clear the path for her.
Rick Perry is hitching his wagon to the Trump train. What would Molly Ivins make of that duo?
Who are these GOP women who are going to cross over to vote for a pro-abortion Dem? That just doesn’t happen.
If Eric Erickson would cross over, anyone can.
so back when was it that donnie drumpf tho’t that america was great? here’s what was written coupla months ago:
In an interview with the New York Times, Trump lays out a lot of his foreign policy opinions and plans. While there’s no mention of a supposed American golden age in the printed article, the very last segment of the interview’s transcript focuses on when the Republican candidate believes America was “great.”
Trump then goes on to praise Douglas MacArthur and George Patton, the New York Times pointing out in return that General MacArthur pushed for the use of nuclear weapons on the Chinese and the North Koreans, and not as a last resort. Read the full transcript here.
those “great” times he moons over weren’t so great for women (didn’t have the vote for one thing and limited autonomy for another) nor were they great for blacks, chinese, and a few other ethnic groups in america.
Hmm, seems like Bernie’s followers are giving him credit for that.
From Hillary’s website:
Revitalize coal communities. Building a 21st century clean energy economy will create new jobs and industries, protect public health, and reduce carbon pollution. But we can’t ignore the impact this transition is already having on coal communities. Hillary’s $30 billion plan to revitalize coal communities will ensure coal miners, power plant operators, transportation workers, and their families get the respect they deserve and the benefits they have earned; invest in economic diversification and job creation; and make coal communities an engine of US economic growth in the 21st century, as they have been for generations.
I guess she didn’t use the words moral responsibility. Damn, there goes her canonization.
BTW, click on the $30B link and look at the details. You won’t find those in Bernie’s tweet.
Hey!…. it’s the weekend…. Kentucky Derby weekend!
Hillary isn’t a “pro-abortion Dem” she’s a pro-choice Dem. Umm, Trump has a 70% disapproval amongst women and their vote is going somewhere..
all you Bernie fans, heads up!
Maddow to interview Bernie Sanders at home in Vermont
Rachel Maddow alerts viewers that she will be traveling to Burlington, Vermont for an interview with Democratic candidate for president, Senator Bernie Sanders, Friday, May 6th. …
As Gomer would say, “Surprise, Surprise, Surprise.”
Of course gender-related issues are only one set of issues among many that will determine who women (and men who give a crap about misogyny) will vote for. Hopefully the 20% above 50% that I presume are independent or right leaning (could be more like 40% above 30% – but I’d be guessing) see this as the driving issue of their vote and won’t vote against their own interest because of their party identity and will either vote for HRC (each crossing over has a net effect of 2) or stay home instead of voting for trump (a net effect of 1 each).
Pro Choice is not the same as pro abortion except in the God besotted brains of right wing nut jobs who believe they hold dominion over women as a divine right from God.
As I keep telling them. When some male of the species has a breach birth baby without benefit of anesthesia on the marbled floor of Congress, I will grant they “might” have the right to express an opinion on what any woman can do with her own body and/or its contents. Until then, slink off in total silence.
Until then make it possible for all infants to be wanted and loved by caring adults instead of abandoning them to disease and poverty.
From HRC’s website.
Just trying to shine a little light here.
In a normal year, the Senate would be likely to stay in Republican hands. But now that Trump has secured the nomination, the prospect of a powerful anti-Trump turnout puts as many as a dozen Republican-held seats in play—with the possibility of electing as many as eight new female senators to join the 12 Democratic women who will return in 2017. That would give us a new Senate with a Democratic majority, a historically large bloc of women—as many as 20 on the Democratic side—and one person ready to lead them. In short, Trump could end up making Warren one of the most powerful people in the Capitol.
It would be quite a set of ironies to cap off this strange national election: While Republicans decide which cliff to leap off, Trump’s nomination could unwittingly usher into power a small army of liberal women, following Warren into battle against wealthy money men like himself. And the gate-crasher who ran for Senate in 2012 because Senate Republicans wouldn’t let her run the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau could soon be pulling the strings of the Senate Democrats—and bossing around the very Republicans who blocked her.
Yep, Pogo, i was hoping about 20% of the 70% of Trump disapproval woman voters would be up for grabs.. Of course lots of anti Trump Republican’s like Grace will fall in line once her favorite Cruz’s loss settles in and Hillary becomes the nominee..
Of course under Eisenhower, the top marginal tax rate was 91%. Then under the Camelot era of Kennedy there was a massive “Tax Cut” down to 65%. No wonder there were funds for infrastructure.
Jamie, one thing that wasn’t so bad about the early 1900s (drumpf’s “when America was great” time): there weren’t so many people as there are now
Sounds like Donald would apply his bankruptcy expertise to the government’s issued debt. Jesus, what the hell could we be in for?
US Population 1900: 76 million with a great big continent still to fill
US Population 1950: Doubled to 152 million but still lots of room and still heavily agricultural
US Population 2000: 282 million and technology really impacting jobs
US Projected population 2050: 438 million principally due to immigrants fleeing the every more crowded areas of the earth
Global Population 1900: 1.6 Billion
Global Projected Population 2050: 9.5 Billion
Ya know… I know some right leaning people (including males) that have told me that for the sake of this country they cannot vote for Trump. They were Bush or Kasich supporters during our primary… and even though it pains them to vote for Hillary, they are leaning that way come the general election if it is Trump vs Clinton. Seeing as how I live in a one horse town, I imagine that statistic is magnified in more populated areas.
bushes and romneys unwilling to take humiliation from party, especially on tv. Also Sec Serv won’t guarantee safety among 1,000 trump terrorists. Think, Lord of the Flies.
RR, some of them weren’t males as well?
Still don’t understand how the hostility toward Bernie helps Hillary
It’s really been more the other way Craig. Whether it has been the Rove operatives or just true believers, the names Hillary has been called and the totally unfounded garbage that has been dredged up has been truly ugly.
I just think he’s a con man, but I don’t hate him. OTOH, the Bernie crowd seems to want her pilloried in a public place and given 40 lashes.
rippers are lousy at defense – demonstrated by jebus h, christ crispy, baby marco, and runt pol. Therefore, attack now and stay on the offensive until even trump votes for HRC. Start in SoBaptist/Assemblies of God Belt with Super PACs pointing out that trump is described in Revelations*. Hire ralph reed. He’s a slut for money.
Meanwhile, HRC runs the ads w/rippers denouncing trump.
* HRC will be called the ‘whore of Babylon’, so strike first, strike hardest, and strike often. Denominate fawkes news, et al, as the ‘Party of the Scribes & Money Lenders’.
CNN Reports: FBI Finds “No Criminal Wrongdoing” in Hillary email investigation
Interesting Free Speech story out of Iowa. Cartoonist of 21 years standing fired for one cartoon because a Big Ag advertiser objected to an uncomfortable truth
Jamie, thanks for linking that. just so we can all see the lunacy of it and maybe get some more eyes on the issue, here’s the “offending” cartoon and what the cartoonist (rick friday) has to say:
Again, I fall hard in the best interest of large corporations. I am no longer the Editorial Cartoonist for Farm News due to the attached cartoon which was published yesterday. Apparently a large company affiliated with one of the corporations mentioned in the cartoon was insulted and cancelled their advertisement with the paper, thus, resulting in the reprimand of my editor and cancellation of It’s Friday cartoons after 21 years of service and over 1090 published cartoons to over 24,000 households per week in 33 counties of Iowa.
I did my research and only submitted the facts in my cartoon.
That’s okay, hopefully my children and my grandchildren will see that this last cartoon published by Farm News out of Fort Dodge, Iowa, will shine light on how fragile our rights to free speech and free press really are in the country.
craig, you asked, here might be why according to mediaite on sanders supporters
….supporters of independent Vermont Senator and upstart Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders came out in force to disrupt a Hillary Clinton speech in Los Angeles, forcing her to end the event early. Speaking to a largely Latino crowd in Monterey Park, Clinton weathered interruption after interruption, and as the local ABC affiliate reported, the protesters being led out all had Bernie Sanders’ name on their lips
Craig – That hostility doesn’t help Clinton. She keeps hoping we’ll go away…until November when we all, miraculously, decide to vote for her. Of course, she is a prime example of everything wrong with politics, and, has a record we don’t like, either.
I know some are excited for a female prez, but honestly, wouldn’t they rather be voting for Elizabeth Warren?
*Free birth control for everyone. Too many people. (I was phrasing it as “pro-abortion” because that is the way Repugz reference it when talking about a candidate’s position on the issue.)
Kathryn Sophia won the Kentucky Oaks. My horse Go Maggie Go came in third (grump)
The oh so sweet Bernie people ripped a home made sign that Hillary had signed away from a child and tore it up in front of her.
Bernie supporters waiting outside Hillary’s rally w signs “Bill didn’t even want her” and yelling fuck you to HC supporters .
Hillary represents the broken system. Not all of the vitriol is just because she is who she is…but, certainly, they shouldn’t rip up anyone else’s sign.
If she is the nominee, it will get more heated as November nears and she actually has to deal with another party’s supporters.
OK, Hillary fan club, have a good weekend.
And then there are the Hillary people hugging the crying children as Bernie’s Brats yell Fuck You
Glad you got to attend the Rally. Whatever I feel about President Clinton, I give the man his due as far as being the ultimate politician. I was glad I saw him in 1992. He is the master of his craft: knows how to fire ’em up. It worked on me…. got my vote 🙂
If you simultaneously attack from left and right, from top bushie aristocrats and bottom dwelling Bernie Bros, from full frontal and up his backside, d.t. will evaporate like fog under the morning sun, right in front of your eyes.
Sanders leaves door open to Clinton VP spot
By Jesse Byrnes
tony you just confirmed what I’ve always suspected.
The old man is getting senile.
Nobody is going to pick him for VP. He is not a team player.
He brings nothing to the ticket except all the obnoxious Bros and the crazy left wing anarchists. Help like that she doesn’t need.
In fact the more that bunch keeps their distance the better it is for HRC
This looks more and more as if it will be a contest between the internationalists and the Isolationist. I expect the right wing Isolationist to vote trump and the left wing ones to either hold their nose and vote HRC or vote green.
In that mix there is no longer any room for Bernie.
His only chance to remain relevant, is to get out and work as hard as he can to get his people to the polls for Clinton.
As to a lefty as VP Warren is currently running for that slot and doing a good job too..
…will shine light on how fragile our rights to free speech and free press ….
It’s Farm News’s paper & rights, silly man. Get your own paper if you want rights.
Rope a Dope
Is that HRC’s strategy against Sanders? and the Republicans.
They have wasted a lot of energy in this campaign and she hasn’t.
Bernie and the Republicans have consistently out spent her. Now she can step out and finish A wore out Trump off. After all Trump has already called her everything he can, he is the equivalent of the used up boxer, Just more of the same isn’t gonna do it.
No way Sanders is a VP. I don’t think that presidents and vice presidents necessarily need to have the type of relationship that Obama and Biden have, but I think at a minium they should be able to abide being in the same room together. Me thinks that Sanders and company have made that about impossible.
Fans really have a problem with Rope a dope as it looks like their champ is getting the crap beat out of them when in reality the are suffering few blows of any strength.
The boxing world also feels it isn’t quite right much better to put on a show by standing toe to toe and beating the crap out of each other.
Who the F*@% is Frank Zappa?
Jack and Jace,
I agree, no way Bernie is offered the vp spot. Not a good fit.. Bernie and his bros have went too far in their takedowns of HRC.. All one has to do is get on Twitter and judge for yourself.. I still feel when the choice is Trump or Hillary the Bernie supporters will mostly all vote Hillary.. Bernie is no Barack Obama, Puma’s nah, not in 2008 and not now..
Jelly Roll Gumdrop was one of the first songs I played on the piano. Heard it on my brother’s Zappa album.
Keith Olbermann has a great hashtag to use when tweeting/retweeting anything about Mr Trump: #InYourHeartYouKnowHesNuts. Clever, apropos. Good to get trending 😉
blueid, from the perspective of your being a bernie, can you explain why you guys are wasting your energies on hillary and not beating up on the obvious elephant in the room? seems to me the bern has more reason to attack drumpf and gopers: (1) surely he would want to face a weakened general election opponent if he does get nominated, (2) drumpf is fresh meat and a billionaire target for bern’s scorn and finger wag and (3) if he doesn’t get to be the nominee he still is in the senate and one would think he’d rather be in the majority with an influential chairmanship.
segments of sanders on rachel maddow last night
Craig, jamie, jack- too funny.
Od- so glad you got to see our Big Dawg!
Elizabeth Warren has taken the lead in breaking Trump’s nuts. She’s fearless. (Gotta do this here➡) #InYourHeartYouKnowHesNuts
Jeb Bush has taken a very principled stand. He will back neither Trump or Clinton. Atta boy Jeb. show some spine. I think we now know why he didn’t do well in the primaries.
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