It Makes A Difference

Twin Spires

By Jamie44, a Trail Mix Contributor

The annual post for the Kentucky Derby Trailmix tradition.

This post is heavy on facts and figures, mainly because horse players study the numbers as if they were holy writ.  You can see them at every track gazing hypnotically at the Daily Racing Form or these days with their tablets and laptops tuned to TVG or Twinspires, the racing channels on cable so they can watch all the races all the time.  They are trying to find gold in the Beyer Scale for payoffs of the Daily Double, Exacta, Trifecta, and Pick Four with or without multiple horses per race and boxing.  If you understand that last sentence, you may have spent a few hours as a railbird (Watch the action from down in the trenches and rarely migrate farther than the ground level of the track).  In Washington they go undercover at the snack bars while letting the horses deal with mud.

Railbirds

Wonderful Artist Jen Ferguson with her interpretation of Railbirds

The reason I insist on your choices before the Post Position draw is that it is an important element in the calculations. This year it will be on the afternoon of May 4. The Oaks for the fillies will be run on May 6 and the Kentucky Derby on May 7.  For starters, no horse leaving from gate 17 has ever won.  The only horses to win in the far outside posts were really big, really strong, and very fast with a great jockey:  18: Gato Del Sol (1982); 19: I’ll Have Another (2012) and 20: Big Brown (2008).  These are where you don’t want to be in the pill pull.

The posts with the magic 7 & 8 winners are:  1, 2, 5, and 8, and only one with 9 winners post 10.  Basically, you want a horse in 14 or less preferably in the first 10.  Getting to that rail from way out is hard for both the horse and the jockey who is trying to find a hole in that mass of horses all aiming for the same place.

There are some truly beautiful horses in the following list in case you want to look them up on line.  Just google the horses name plus the word horse.  Unless you mention you are looking for a horse, Google gets really confused by the names.

Post Position Winners (since the use of a starting gate in 1930): The winner was one of the few Triple Crown horses: Gallant Fox

Gallant Fox

  1. Ferdinand (1986); Chateaugay (1963); Needles (1956); Hill Gail (1952); Citation (1948); Gallahadion (1940); Lawrin (1938); War Admiral (1937)
  2. Affirmed (1978); Bold Forbes (1976); Cannonade (1974); Dust Commander (1970); Tim Tam (1958); Ponder (1949) Assault (1946)
  3. Real Quiet (1998); Alysheba (1987); Spectacular Bid (1979); Foolish Pleasure (1975); Shut Out (1942)
  4. Super Saver (2010); Seattle Slew (1977); Decidedly (1962); Pensive (1944); Whirlaway (1941)
  5. Funny Cide (2003); War Emblem (2002); Silver Charm (1997); Strike the Gold (1991); Count Fleet (1943); Johnstown (1939); Bold Venture (1936); Twenty Grand (1931)
  6. Sea Hero (1993); Iron Liege (1957)
  7. Street Sense (2007); Pleasant Colony (1981); Proud Clarion (1967); Northern Dancer (1964); Determine (1954); Gallant Fox (1930)
  8. Mine That Bird (2009); Barbaro (2006); Go for Gin (1994); Unbridled (1990); Majestic Prince (1969); Lucky Debonair (1965); Swaps (1955); Cavalcade (1934)
  9. Riva Ridge (1972); Venetian Way (1960); Tomy Lee (1959); Count Turf (1951)
  10. Giacomo (2005); Lil E. Tee (1992); Sunday Silence (1989); Spend a Buck (1985); Sunny’s Halo (1983); Genuine Risk (1980); Secretariat (1973); Dark Star (1953); Omaha (1935)
  11. Winning Colors (1988); Brokers Tip (1933)
  12. Canonero II (1971); Kauai King (1966); Hoop Jr. (1945)
  13. Smarty Jones (2004); Forward Pass (1968); Jet Pilot (1947); Burgoo King (1932)
  14. Carry Back (1961); Middleground (1950)
  15. Fusaichi Pegasus (2000); Grindstone (1996); Swale (1984)
  16. Animal Kingdom (2011); Monarchos (2001); Charismatic (1999); Thunder Gulch (1995)
  17. Gato Del Sol (1982)
  18. I’ll Have Another (2012)
  19. Big Brown (2008)

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111 thoughts on “It Makes A Difference”

  1. And coming up into the final turn Sanders is gaining on the outside on Hillary who’s 12 lengths ahead.  He seems to be running on hot air and hope against all odds. Can he catch her?  SHIT NO.

    I woke up and realized that 53% is not 65%. Now if only the sun would break through the clouds….

     

  2. Interesting that Senator Cruz said his “path” had been foreclosed. Did the $ people turn off the spigot? Rather abrupt ending. Whoever writes the book on all the  backroom deals that transpired this past week should have a goldmine. Meanwhile, the Party of Disarray just gained valuable time against the Democrats. Reince Priebus 1, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, nil.

  3. great post jamie.  that’s right pogo, just remember when in doubt- feel the math.

  4. Just the idea that a major party of this country could nominate anyone as garish and ignorant as Donald Trump, makes me want to cry.  The fact that so many of my fellow citizens think that he is worth their vote is just plain frightening.

     

  5. Jamie

    I checked all through the data for the early/middle 1950s and I saw no mention of Roger Bannister. What kind of operation are you running already :)) Splendid Job!

  6. Sanders is gaining on Hillary the same way that if you jump as high as you can you’re closer to the sun

  7. why does this smell of 1968 deja vu all over again only this time with drumpf in the nixon role, hillary as hhh and the bernites rioting in the streets?

     

    — sigh — get ready for president donnie drumpf, the epitome of the ugly american.

  8. First off my alleged confession.  Yesterday I arrived in North Carolina for a training event.  Due to a large ice tea and a can of apple juice I was well hydrated prior to and during the flight.  Unfortunately, the flight was delayed leaving BWI and it was also delayed in flight, we flew in a holding pattern for quite a while.  When we finally landed and deplaned I have a great urge to help the water flow in Charlotte.  Right around the corner from the gate was the women’s restroom.  I charged in as fast as I  could hoping to avoid a public scene.  Allegedly I broke the law in North Carolina.  Alleged confession over.

    I am sticking with SuddenBreakingNews to win.

  9. Jamie, that’s so much information it feels like insider trading. Interesting stuff. Thanks.

  10. Goodness, just had a look at Prince’s obituary in The Economist that arrived on Monday. Totally no holds barred.

  11. “Interesting that Senator Cruz said his “path” had been foreclosed. Did the $ people turn off the spigot? Rather abrupt ending.”

    sjwny, perhaps that $$ spigot had already dwindled to a trickle considering what he said yesterday according to the guardian:

    He even turned to slam Fox News and the two powerful conservatives who run the cable network, saying: “Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes have turned Fox News into the Donald Trump Network 24/7.”
    An attack against the rightwing news network would have been considered heresy among Republicans not long ago, but Cruz has grown increasingly critical of the company over perceived bias by some of its anchors, such as Sean Hannity.

    could be too that the drumpf-friendly enquirer had more scandals awaiting print if he didn’t withdraw.

  12. Craig

    If you think that is insider trading, you would find sitting at a table of men comparing notes over their racing forms hilarious.  I didn’t even begin to get into drops in class, claiming races, dirt vs turf vs synthetic, Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta, daily double, pick 4 and pick 6.  Stephen Hawkings’ head would spin when the numbers start flying. ?

     

     

  13. right you are, Jamie.  and you didn’t even touch on breeding…  wiki makes a good start on that issue at their Thoroughbred breeding theories discussion.  here’s a sample:

    Thoroughbred horses are generally traced through the distaff line, also called the mare line or tail-female line. This maternal line known as a “family”. This practice dates to the beginning of the General Stud Book (GSB). [….]
     One example was Old Bald Peg placed in family 6, one of the earliest tap-root dams, having been foaled around 1635. Most, if not all modern Thoroughbreds trace their ancestry to her through one or both sides of their pedigree.

    old bald peg? hardly sounds like a winner, but who could bet against genes that hold up for almost 4 centuries.

  14. OSH, yes.  Speaking of math, as has been my custom following Tuesday contests, here’s my worthless take on the numbers:

    Bernie went into Indiana needing 65% of the remaining pledged delegates to tie Hillary in PLEDGED delegates.  After winning by 5% he goes into Guam and WV (which I believe he will win both) needing 68% of the remaining pledged delegates to equal Hillary’s pledged delegate count.  I think the math says that Sturg’s analogy is right, but he left out the part about the sun getting further away with every jump.

    Now factor the super delegates in and he needs to win 87% of the remaining pledged delegates to catch Hillary if the super delegates who have committed to Clinton remain and they split the remaining 153 super delegates.  Like I said, he’s running on hope and hot air.

  15. Bernie Sanders declares war on reality
    by Michael Cohen

    The same candidate who has been railing against independent voters being disenfranchised, who has called the primary system undemocratic, and who has complained about superdelegates, in general, is now calling on those same superdelegates to vote against Clinton (that would apparently include delegates from the states Clinton has won), even though she will almost certainly have the most pledged delegates and the most votes. In head-to-head general election polls, Clinton trounces Trump, but since Sanders trounces him by a bit more, he argues that he should be the nominee.
    In the realm of illogical, self-serving, hypocritical, intellectually dishonest political arguments, this is practically the gold standard. But with six weeks to go until the last primary, I have great confidence that the Sanders campaign will find some way to top it.

  16. There are times when a writer (two in this case) concisely sums up what is occurring.  The following from today’s WaPo by Philip Rucker and Anne Gearen does just that.

    On the Democratic side, Indiana proved a surprising aberration as Bernie Sanders scored an upset victory over Hillary Clinton, giving the Vermont senator a needed psychological boost and a fresh rationale to soldier on against increasingly difficult odds.

    But Sanders’s success did not change the overall trajectory of the Democratic race, which remains strongly in the former secretary of state’s favor. Clinton holds what her campaign and many analysts argue is an irreversible lead in total delegates. Although she has not clinched the nomination, she has shifted her focus to a likely general election campaign against Trump.

  17. Holy Horse Power.  I allowed myself a few minutes of joy with the thought that our First Gent might be the first vegan in the WH.  On behalf of farm animals, wild animals and tasty animals everywhere (this includes horses), Bill would be a hearty gift to some of my favorite living creatures.   

  18. The question every Republican must now ask themselves is: Which do you love more, your party or your country?”

     

    They have been answering that question every day since Obama was elected. The answer is party always party.

  19. I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore, Toto…..

    Seriously…  Hey…  ya you, Confucius….   interesting times is fine…   but interesting times on steroids is something else.

    Jamie… thanks for the trip down memory lane…   so many beautiful horses.

  20. Craig…have I told you lately how I think you are an awesome human?  Now here comes the part in the performance review where the criticisms start.  Although political pundits claim this election is many things, it is a lot about campaign reform…not just just financial reform.  I believe it is about the campaign teams and the humans behind the candidate. They can’t get the job done correctly.  They are sucking. Trump has successfully kept his inner circle while hiring professionals along the way for his ground game.  HRC has stumbled because of her handlers.  The Sanders campaign has run a game that in the long run will hurt the DNC…they never wanted to be team players anyway.  They just wanted to see how far the comic book hero could go.  Sanders is standing in the way of the DNC really helping HRC.  She needs help against Trump.  Why change the candidate?  She is fine as she is!! Hire comedians, rock bands, stylists and get the show on the road.  Humans want to see their President in person.  AND bring food and water…the humans are hungry.  Entertain the masses and give them buttons, bumper stickers, hats. Market while the lady stays herself.  She is not an entertainer, but can surround herself with the best.  Tell everyone you love America and Americans, but most of all —

    It is no longer I feel your pain…I am here to fix your pain.  

  21. Sander’s speech in Kentucky last night was peppered with Walmart (Clintons) references (I swear his speech had a mudcat footprint)…he is not furthering his agenda, he is hitting the Clintons.  

    Sander’s speech was contrasted with Cruz’s earlier tirade about venereal disease and Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes.  I thought Rupert was still playing kissy face with Jerry Hall and not a part of Fox these days as he has given more power to his son.  Ailes is still one man I would love to meet.  I have that sick desire to mess with his chins.

  22. Humor break

    RR…I understand Confucius has changed his named to Confused-cius given the current global uncertainty.  BB…congrats on the bathroom entry and avoiding the birthers….you should be more worried about running into wide-stance Larry Craig in the restrooms!  

    End of humor break.

  23. Patd

    And you can’t talk about the maternal lines without mentioning the foundation stallions:  The Byerley Turk, The Darley Arabian, and The Goldolphin who when bred with English horses became the ancestors for the modern thoroughbred.  Three On A Match

  24. BW

    Trust me you do NOT want to meet Roger Ailes at least not without a handy barf bag.

  25. The biggest danger to HRC’s campaign effort will be the presumption by many that she will win in a walk over. She and her team need to campaign as though this election is going to come down to a hand full of votes in a couple of states.

  26. So will Christie be tasked with vetting possible VP picks ala Dick Cheney or is he just having to settle for Transportation Secretary?

  27. Jace, you are  right about HRC taking this campaign seriously as if it is a vote by vote in state by state affair.  And she should start with the remaining primary contests.  Keeping your powder dry and conserving dollars for the general election is fine if you don’t allow your primary opponent to slime you while you’re doing it.  Bernie doesn’t give one shit about the Dem party, and he should consider where he will be after July, or November as the case may be, if he works for the next two months damaging Hillary’s chances against trump. I assume that part of HRC’s plan has been to avoid alienating BS’s supporters by not going after him in the remaining contests.  If there was some assurance that he wasn’t turning personal and negative that might be a viable campaign strategy.  I don’t think that can be safely assumed at this point.  Someone with much more insight into campaign strategy (Poobah?) than me should weigh in on this.  In the meantime, Mook and Benenson better get HRC’s campaign act together.

    Oh, and the guv who ate NJ can confer with MoJo about that since they ran into each other up trump’s butt.

  28. Pogo, at this point it seems like Bernie has slipped out of their hands. Let him run his course into a ditch, and focus on blasting Trump. For starters I’d have the super pac do tens of millions in ads in battleground states themed around TRUMP THE SEXIST PIG — testimonials, clips, stories, all of it. And with a touch of humor, not with feminist outrage, make him a joke. He’ll counter with Bill’s past, has said that’s what he’ll do, but that’s gonna happen anyway.

    It should start now, just like the Obama team did to Romney as soon as he became presumptive. I recall they spent something like $40 million on attack ads before early summer. Going back to ’96, it’s what Bill’s reelection team did to Bob Dole. They turned him into a Gingrich-loving, teacher-hating, anti-elderly nut job before he ever got to his convention.

    Then move on to policy, business background, other stuff. A negative ad campaign is best started with the personal. Make people dislike the person and they’ll be more receptive to policy hits.

    This is what the media is craving to cover, a vicious war between the two. So give it to them. They’re done with Sideshow Bernie, no matter where he wins.

  29. Gotta say, HRC built up some  respect by walking into coal country knowing that she was going to  catch hell. A real demonstration of personal toughness.

    She may not get many votes there but just showing up gets her a second look by some. Looks like she listened to me when I said start working  rural areas see how many votes you can peel off before you get in the serious part of the election cycle.

    Jack

  30. Craig  Have a bunch of  corporate type  working women  comparing Trump to their  co-worker from hell. laughing at the idiot and speculating on where he would be if he wasn’t rich.

     

    Jack

  31. I noticed yesterday that HRC was getting a lot of positive puff pieces for a change. Maybe the Donald show is getting old.

     

    Jack

  32. Kasich is out, announcement at 5pm ET. Planning sick days for his homestate convention?

  33. Yeah…  I guess it looked bad for Kasich running 4th in a 3 man race…  but doing so in a 2 man race…   pathetic.

    I agree Craig…  Hillary should keep running against Trump.  Bernie did give a helluva run.  But like they say….  irrelevant is irrelevant no matter the tantrum.

    Tina Fey…  oi vey…

  34. TeeVee alert: Hillary interview 2pm ET CNN, Trump at 5pm. The general election begins. Her folks should have made sure she followed him. This way he has 3 hours to ponder a response to her.

  35. See, Poobah, that’s why us amateurs shouldn’t intrude on you experts’ turf. 😉

  36. Jack,  Trump will win WV and KY.  I almost hate to say it but it’s because a large percentage of the people here (1) just hate Hillary, (2) vote Repug now and/or (3) are just to stupid to understand anything beyond a sound bite.  And Bernie will beat HRC here.  Can’t say about KY. Irony is that HRC beat Obama here in 2008 (as did McCain) – and you can guess the reason for that without stretching your imagination.

  37. According to Philip Bump at The Fix, this is where the November race begins.

    What the poll shows is that the almost-certain general election contest between Trump and Hillary Clinton (barring some dramatic change of fortunes) is Hillary Clinton’s to lose. What it also shows, perhaps more alarmingly to Team Trump, is that Clinton’s current lead has expanded since an initial surge of interest in Trump last fall.

    Overall, the pattern looks something like a U. Last June, shortly after Trump announced his candidacy, Clinton led him by 24 points. By September, the two were tied in CNN/ORC polling, thanks to a combination of Clinton’s rough summer and Republicans starting to embrace Trump. But as time passed, the pendulum swung back to Clinton.

  38. Pogo, I have always believed the amateurs are the experts in politics, the voters.

  39. Pogo, may I suggest you turn your keen eye for nomination delegate math to the Electoral College going forward? That’s the rub now, would be most helpful.

  40. My rough cut on imagining Trump’s best Electoral College success scenario is traditiional GOP states (like Ohio) plus Nevada, Colorado and Pennsylvania, and he doesn’t need Florida (which I don’t think he can win, too many Latinos and Clintons have always run strong there). That’s a tall order.

  41. We know that the one thing that gets Trump’s goat is being the butt of jokes.  The more we laugh at him, the more unhinged he gets.

     

  42. Is it okay if I hate Jeff Weaver as a vile and disgusting example of human flesh?

  43. Nice going goopers.  This is perfect  they are enemies of government

    Trump is someone whose career has been built on other people’s money mostly tax payers.

  44. trump won’t win PA, NV or CO. OH, maybe. repub restroom antics in NC will backfire and hurt d.t. in November.

    Actually, any state with females could go for Clinton.

  45. BB – I salute you and your bladder.

    Freedom!

    (The idiots in Rockwall, TX have decided to jump on the regulate-where-people-pee bandwagon.)

  46. Hillary called Trump a “loose cannon” 3 times in the first 30 seconds of her CNN interview just now.

  47. More words from Hillary in this CNN interview about Trump: “demeaning” “degrading” “bullying”

    I like it

  48. Well, using 2012 as a baseline (and assuming the number of electors in each state is the same as it was then), Obama won 332 electoral college votes and Romney won 206 – a 126 EC vote margin.  The 3 closest states (within 2%) were Florida (29), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13).  If Hillary won all the states Obama won except those, she would still have 272 electoral votes and Trump would have 266.  Pennsylvania is where he might be able to swing the election if he could flip it. Wisconsin strikes me as a possible for trump given Walker’s (insane) popularity, but it’s just 10 electoral votes.  I think the math is tough for trump, but polls that are inevitably going to be coming out in the next few weeks and months may prove me wrong.

    Nationally, since last July, Clinton has had poll results that ranged from a trump victory (2-5%) in a handful of polls to a 13 point margin for Clinton (she led in the vast majority of national polls) and one Bloomberg poll put the margin at 18%, but that’s really an apparent outlier. The latest poll was 13% Clinton.

    With a few glasses of wine and a couple hours I could come up with a few plausible scenarios that would result in a Clinton defeat, but that will have to wait.

  49. When LBJ signed the Voting Rights Act, he murmured “there goes the south.”  Trump securing the Republican nomination yesterday, paraphrasing LBJ, “there goes the Senate “.

  50. Ha, Pogo, agreed. I have to suspend disbelief to reach Trump victorty scenarios. Do think Pennsylvania the biggest enchilada. Dems should have picked Pittsburgh for their convention. Philly not so helpful for winning rest of the state.

  51. Hello eProf. Always good to see you in the hood. Interesting thing about both “presumed” nominees is they are both complicated for down ballot candidates.

  52. Pittsburgh might have been a challenge – the Consol Center would be fine but the hotel situation is not what it is in Philly. Plus, Pittsburgh is a mini hub now – not nearly the flight availability of Philadelphia. But yeah – coulda done something to repair some of that gun and bible clinging damage maybe.

    Now talking about Ohio, favorite son and all that was going on there, but the Repugs got 700,000 more primary voters to the polls than the Dems did.  I think it’s vulnerable.

  53. “Her folks should have made sure she followed him.”

    boss, not so sure about that as it hasn’t worked for 17 other opponents of his.  he would blast one of them with a slam that actually could be made about him (such as the “liar” and “crooked” epithets) and they couldn’t retort “you are too” or carry on with their planned agenda.

    this way she can set the stage.  hope she make it humorous.  Jamie is right about “The more we laugh at him, the more unhinged he gets.”  unleash the comics within and without.

     

  54. Wapo lays out the Repug challenge more emphatically than I did.

     

    Why is that important? Because if Clinton wins Florida and carries the 19 states (plus D.C.) that have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in each of the last six elections, she will be the 45th president. It’s that simple.
    Here’s what that map would look like:


    And here’s the underlying math. If Clinton wins the 19 states (and D.C.) that every Democratic nominee has won from 1992 to 2012, she has 242 electoral votes. Add Florida’s 29 and you get 271. Game over.

  55. I think that Trump’s biggest problem will be bleeding votes in red states that republicans should win. They’re may have been binders full of women willing to hold their nose and vote for Romney, but I don’t think that they will vote for Trump. Hence he will have to spend time and resources in states that should be secure.

  56. wapo:

    If there’s one person you can count on to berate Donald Trump on Twitter, it’s Elizabeth Warren.

    The Massachusetts senator took to her feed Tuesday night after Trump’s victory in Indiana made him the Republican Party’s de facto presidential nominee for 2016. And, no surprise, the Democrat did not hold back in criticizing Trump, calling him a divisive narcissist and his ideology a “toxic stew of hatred & insecurity.”

    “There’s more enthusiasm for [Trump] among leaders of the KKK than leaders of the political party he now controls,” Warren tweeted.

    Warren said she will “fight her heart out” to ensure Trump never makes it to the White House. She has been mentioned as a possible vice presidential pick by Hillary Clinton, which would make a historic statement with two women on the ticket. But Warren has stayed neutral in the Democratic primary race so far.

    [….]

    This is not the first time Warren has laid into Trump on Twitter. At the end of March, she called him a “loser” and a “serious threat.”

    “His insecurities are on parade: petty bullying, attacks on women, cheap racism, flagrant narcissism. But just because [Trump] is a loser everywhere else doesn’t mean he’ll lose this election,” she wrote.

  57. The saddest part of the affair d’Trump is that so many people agree with him.  It exposes some deep divides in this country.  I am amazed at how stupid some people are as well.

     

    I also think it is an argument for Clinton as more of a centrist to work on some of things that divide us as a nation

  58. Here is the Post Position Draw.  I’ll be back with Jockeys and Morning Line odds

    1.       Trojan Nation
    2.       Sudden Breaking News
    3.       Creator
    4.       Mo Tom
    5.       Gunrunner
    6.       My Man Sam
    7.       Oscar Nominated
    8.       Lani
    9.       Destin
    10.   Whitmore
    11.   Exagerator
    12.   Tom’s Ready
    13.   Nyquist
    14.   Mohaymon
    15.   Outwork
    16.   Shagaf
    17.   Mor Spirit
    18.   Majesto –
    19.   Brody’s Cause
    20.   Danzing Candy
    21.   Laoban – AE
    22.   Cherry Wine – AE

  59. Alleged confession two (unless Charlotte airport is federal), due to a lot of coffee and a can of Pepsi Real Sugar, I got to the airport this afternoon with a great desire to, once again, help the Charlotte water treatment system.  I entered the first women’s room I came across to, once again, not make a dramatic entrance or escape (depending on how you see it).  So I might have once again, allegedly, broken the North Carolina state law against me peeing in the correct restroom.  I know any woman worth her skirt would never walk into a mens room alone.  Power to the women at sporting events taking over the mens room!

    Gotta wonder who got to Cruz, and now, Casich.  As for Bernie.  He is making enemies of people who might have helped him in the Senate.  Some may feel his continuing to attack Hillary as a sign he is not a Democrat, as he calls himself, but still an Independent.  And, not a friendly Independent to boot.

  60. Maybe the goops have decided the best way to stop Trump is to let him stop himself.  He’s in charge now

  61. Here you go folks.  Post Position – Horse – Jockey – Trainer & Trailmix Rider:
    KENTUCKY DERBY (GI)
    PP. Horse (weight) jockey/trainer oddsTrailmix Jockey
    1. Trojan Nation  (126) Gryder/Gallagher 50-1 –
    2. Suddenbreakingnews (126) Quinonez/Von Hemel 20-1 – Blue Bronc
    3. Creator (126) Santana Jr./Asmussen 10-1 – Patd to place
    4. Mo Tom (126) Lanerie/Amoss 20-1 – Sturgeone
    5. Gun Runner (126) Geroux/Asmussen 10-1 – Craig
    6. My Man Sam (126) Ortiz Jr./Brown 20-1 – Harbor Woman
    7. Oscar Nominated (126) Leparoux/Maker 50-1 – Jamie
    8. Lani (126) Take/Matsunaga 30-1 – Chris & Lani
    9. Destin (126) Castellano/Pletcher 15-1 – Pogo, Flatus
    10. Whitmore (126) Espinoza/Moquett 20-1 –
    11. Exaggerator (126) Desormeaux/Desormeaux 8-1 – Patd to Win
    12. Tom’s Ready (126) Hernandez Jr./Stewart 30-1 –
    13. Nyquist (126) Gutierrez/O’Neill 3-1 – XR & Rick
    14. Mohaymen (126) Alvarado/McLaughlin 10-1 – Patd Show
    15. Outwork (126) Velazquez/Pletcher 15-1 –
    16. Shagaf (126) Rosario/Brown 20-1 –  Solar & Tony
    17. Mor Spirit (126) Stevens/Baffert 12-1 –
    18. Majesto (126) Jaramillo/Delgado 30-1 –
    19. Brody’s Cause (126) Saez/Romans 12-1 – Renee & BW
    20. Danzing Candy (126) Smith/Sise 15-1 – Whiskey Jack
    AE. Laoban (126) Velasquez/Guillot
    AE. Cherry Wine (126) Albarado/Romans

  62. WASHINGTON — A North Carolina law that bans transgender individuals from using the bathroom that corresponds with their gender identity violates federal civil rights laws by discriminating against students and employees on the basis of sex, the Justice Department told Gov. Pat McCrory (R) on Wednesday.

    Vanita Gupta, the head of the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division, wrote a letter that gives McCrory until Monday to confirm that “the State will not comply with or implement HB2,” according to The Charlotte Observer.

     

    NC may find that their new law is going to get very expensive. Millions in education funding at stake, and millions more in legal battles to argue a law that is clearly unconstitutional. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of folks.

  63. Did ya notice that last night behind Trump there was no Christyand wife or any other politicians. he was surrounded by family and from the looks of the picture all of them were Botoxed up so they couldn’t  roll their eyes if they wanted too.

    Jack

  64. Chris Matthews’ Melania Trump remarks caught on hot mic
    By Dylan Byer’s

    MSNBC’s Chris Matthews was caught on a hot mic commenting on Melania Trump’s “runway walk” during the network’s Indiana primary coverage.
    “Did you see her walk? Runway walk. My God is that good,” Matthews could be heard saying as the Republican frontrunner’s wife walked onto the stage.
    “I could watch that runway show,” Matthews said.

    Oh man, Tweety is at it again!

  65. Why Republican Voters Decided On Trump
    Nate Silver

    It’s at this point that I’ll spare you the navel-gazing detours about empirical philosophy2 since Trump’s nomination is potentially such a consequential event for both the Republican Party and the Republic. Trump is a huge departure from the conservative movement as embodied by Ronald Reagan — and also a probable (although by no means certain) general election loser in what would otherwise be a highly winnable race for Republicans. Usually a party picks a nominee who is both reasonably “electable” and who upholds its traditional policy positions. In Trump, the Republican Party may have a candidate who fails on both counts.
    For a candidate like Trump to win the nomination, it means that several things have gone wrong — both for the Republican Party and in the assumptions we made about how party nominations work. The other day, I summed up the three most important such factors as follows:

  66. Trump does not recognize the difference between primary and the general

  67. KC, I beg to differ.  Trump won’t be rejecting political donations and super PAC money in the general. He won’t be self funding his billion dollar run for the WH. When it comes running a shit storm campaign, you’re right I’d wager.

  68. Why are you still in the race, Bernie?

    Jonathan Capehart

     Sen. Bernie Sanders’s magic-wand campaign has grown tiresome. Despite his win in Indiana and #Dropouthillary trending on Twitter as of this writing, the democratic socialist from Vermont’s chances of becoming the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee are as slim as  Karlie Kloss’s dress at Monday’s Met Gala. And yet Sanders is on the campaign trail demanding things of his adopted party that can’t be delivered and saying things about rival Hillary Clinton that Donald Trump is already using against her.

  69. from last night’s pbs newshour

    JUDY WOODRUFF: We return to the presidential race now and to a man who once challenged Donald Trump, but now supports him, Dr. Ben Carson.

    Today, it was announced that he will assist the Trump campaign in selecting a running mate.

    [….]

    DR. BEN CARSON: Well, again, we must recognize that, you know, what Donald Trump represents is really quite alien to the traditional political system, Democrats or Republicans. You know, they’re used to having people who are part of the system, who have obligations to this group or this group.

    To have somebody who is completely uncontrollable is a very difficult thing for the system to adjust to. But, hopefully, they will. The people have adjusted to it. And the people have decided that they will supersede the system and vote in such numbers that it wouldn’t be thrown into a contested situation.

    [….]

    JUDY WOODRUFF: I saw another comment today, this one from the former governor of Utah, Republican Mike Leavitt. He said, “Donald Trump is going to have to demonstrate he has the temperament to be president.”

    How does Donald Trump do that?

    DR. BEN CARSON: I think he — you know, we all have our weaknesses. There’s no question about that.

    And, you know, he has sometimes had a little difficulty letting something go when somebody insults him. But I think he realizes that this will be a trick that his opponents will use to try to get him off track. And I think he’s much smarter than people think. And he’s just not going to fall for that.

  70. repost for emphasis:

    somebody who is completely uncontrollable is a very difficult thing for the system to adjust to

     

    maybe our next thread should be a simple OMG!

  71. back to the track.  here’s a tidbit for someone who wants to pick either a sure thing or a longshot:

    …the most accomplished runner in the field, the undefeated Nyquist, and the least accomplished, Trojan Nation, who has yet to win a race.

    according to bleacher report

    plus trojan horse is at post #1, not a favorite spot unless you’re calvin borel.

     

  72. OMG!! is right. You would have thought that the republican party might have learned after the Palin fiasco. Nope. They didn’t just double down they went all in. Just proves that you can’t fix stupid.

    Elections have consequences and this is going to be a very consequential election. Time for HRC and the Democratic Party to make that very clear in the strongest possible terms.

  73. That amazingly deep republican bench sure got shallow at the end. I think that Trump was the beneficiary of the mercy rule.

  74. John Wilkes Booth killed ‘The Party of Lincoln’. The thieves at the repugnant party misappropriate Lincoln’s heritage.

  75. Jace,  of course our party fumbled when it let a democratic socialist join the party to run for president and start trashing the eventual nominee.  Politics….

    It is a lot of fun watching the Repug gymnastics now that they have their nominee.  GHWB & Shrub won’t endorse him, McConnell sounds like he’s trying to convince himself that taking the castor oil is good,  Ryan’s going to do it, but he doesn’t like it.  Some, e.g. Dean Heller, oppose him.  oh, the drama.

  76. Yes, Flatus, the Repugs are the party of Lincoln in name only.  Their campaign to pass laws disadvantaging minorities is not exactly Lincolnesque.

     

  77.  I know any woman worth her skirt would never walk into a mens room alone.  Power to the women at sporting events taking over the mens room!

     Hah, BB!  In the early 1970’s my friends from Philly took me to Harlow’s.  It was my first trip to the transgender bathrooms.  I remember the bathrooms were small (we used the term unisex for transgender back then) and they were on each level as the bar was an old tri-story house.  I even saw Rachel…and I have gone into men’s bathrooms.  Urinals are a different business.  It has been studied that women take more time in the bathroom and the stalls number are inadequate.  In reality?  Most men would rather have stalls.   

  78. Cruz and Kasich caved way too easy…look for an assassination plot.  Trump better double down on security.  I watched his presumptive nominee acceptance speech.  His beautiful bookends will garner him some votes…except Ivanka and Mel were giving each other the evil eye until Mel Trump started getting the clue to clap at everything the Donald says.  Meanwhile, Faux News has found that Guccifer hacked into the Clinton server…a confession.  We now know that ‘everyone’ has seen her server.  

  79. Pogo,

    It’s time for Bernie to give up the attacks on Clinton. If he insists on playing out the string he should concentrate on policy and see what he can do. There will be plenty of HRC bashing coming from Trump, the GOP and assorted super pacs. Bernie needs to lay off HRC and go to work on Trump.

  80. Jace…Sanders has been in this for his legacy and the anti-Clinton crowd are fueling him…on both sides.  I say get back to work Senator — use that power to enhance your legacy.  He is part of the crew that is kicking the old lady’s ass into the WH.  I find them worse than the true haters.  A ruse by Sanders and Bros.

  81. BW

     

    I hope you are right. I instinctively worry about the Clintons because they most always find a way to make it harder than it has to be. They don’t need any help from Bernie.

  82. bw, jace, pogo,

    best way for Bernie to repay the $$ (including acceptance and free time on the debate stage and a dem i.d on primary/caucus ballots) the dem party has given him is to pass it along in the form of help to down ticket dems much as elizabeth warren seems to be doing. even if he and jane can’t bring themselves to support hillary, they could at least acknowledge in his speeches the importance of supporting the local party candidates whatever venue he’s at.

  83. Bernie’s greatest fear? That he will wake to discover that it has all been a fantasy.

  84. Target Clintons is an old game…purity vs. flawed humans.  If you watch Faux News, you know that after the 2012 election, Ailes started his attack plan on Clinton.  The anti-Clinton dems picked-up on the same thing…the dishonesty crap started from Sanders.  Crooked Hillary?   The problem?  Trump.  You cannot cure a narcissist and the media has given him pure time to promote his brand…better to starve him out…during the Benghazi hearings, HRC did do one shoulder brush…she needs to do that with Trump.  Ignore him, but her donors ($$$$) want her to engage.  Ignore him…do not engage.  Unfortunately, advisers want her to engage.  Painful to watch.

  85. today’s epiphany:  no wonder drumpf brags so much and is so confident as to how he could better handle the spoiled brat in pyongyang and the bully boy in moscow, they’re his psyche doppelgangers…. iow,  it takes one to know one.

  86. Flatus, it seems Bill’s Fairy Tale line was a couple of elections off!  I remember in 2008, Jesse Jackson was heard making physical threats about Obama and his family jewels.  The dems are crazy, too, but letting Bern in?  DNC Debbie fumbled, for sure.

  87. media now needs to insist on longer and more serious interviews with little Donnie.   have a feeling he’ll crumple just as half-gov (and ted kennedy come to think of it) did before when actually given time to screw up.

  88. worth remembering Dems didn’t mind having Bernie around when they needed his votes in the Senate

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