Vote Counting Time, The New York Showdown

Here is your thread for watching NY election returns.

VotingSexyThanks to the good folks at Vox.com, a brief rundown:

Who’s voting: Republicans and Democrats

Republican delegates at stake: 95, most awarded by congressional district; winner-take-all with a majority

Democratic delegates at stake: 247, awarded proportionally

Voting ends: 9 pm Eastern. (Polls open at 6 am in New York City and surrounding counties, and at noon in the rest of the state.)

The Republican outlook: Donald Trump appears poised to cruise to victory in his home state of New York. The only question is how many places he manages to hit the 50 percent threshold. If Trump gets more than 50 percent statewide — and given that he’s polling 30 points ahead of his closest rival, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, according to RealClearPolitics, that’s not impossible — he’ll take all of New York’s 14 statewide delegates. In every congressional district where he hits over 50 percent, he’ll get all of that district’s delegates as well.

The Democratic outlook: Hillary Clinton has a comfortable lead in the polls of about 10 points, according to RealClearPolitics. But the polls have been wrong on Sanders before, and he had a strong debate on Thursday night. New York is make or break for Sanders’s campaign — although he’s climbing in national polls, he still trails Clinton significantly in the delegate count. And the next run of primaries, including New York, aren’t held in states where the demographics favor his campaign.

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Author: craigcrawford

Trail Mix Host. Lapsed journalist, author & retired pundit happily promoting nothing but the truth for Social Security checks.

97 thoughts on “Vote Counting Time, The New York Showdown”

  1. Olbermann came up with a true funny comment on Bernie Sanders:

    We have blinking bracelets tonight. When they turn red all of us over 30 go to carousel. #LGR #LetsGoLogansRun

    I replied

    Old enough to make a run for it to find Peter Ustinov

  2. Seriously curious- Any lawyers or persons familiar with the process able to answer my question regarding a candidate suing the Party? Wondering firstly wouldn’t it most likely be a breach of contract or agreement?  Why would they not stop or limit  funding to campaign?

    Has anyone ever heard National assoc of professional women?  Is it some kind of scam?

  3. The Obamacare death spiral continues.  United Healthcare aiming to drop its Obamacare policies by 2017; too unprofitable, per local newscast.

    On Sunday, there was an article in The Dallas Morning News about Blue Cross is having problems, too. A group of hospitals and outpatient facilities don’t want to renew their contract, making them out of network.  Apparently, all of those people who didn’t have healthcare for years and years finally got to go see a doc, and some were really unhealthy.

    We need single payer.  The insurance industry has no interest in healthcare.

  4. You always know who’s losing when they are in the next primary state on voting night.

  5. Blue

    Unfortunately, you live in a state that refused to expand Medicaid in line with the ACA.

  6. OSH

    They are real established in 2007, but recruit through Linked In Advertising as a “Professional Organization” so it is a bit of a scam.  Whether or not you could get any benefit from it would be up to you.  As an individual woman owned business, there are better groups.

    If there is any reason for you to deal with government contracts for any reasons, look into NWBOC certification.

    The Small Business Association  provides assistance to women owned businesses

     

  8. I know.  ACA limits profit percentage but needs additional Medicaid support for those in poverty. About the only Republican controlled state was Kasich in Ohio and it almost got him recalled.  One of the reasons you will never get single payer unless you have a Democratic Controlled congress and even then it will be like pulling teeth.  Look at what it took just to get the ACA as loaded up as it is with Republican amendments and concessions.

    It is one of the reasons I opposed Bernie because he did nothing to support other Democrats or change Congress.

  9. Whomever ends up as POTUS is going to have to address this immediately, although Obama will still be on duty when folks are supposed to be signing up for their 2017 coverage.  Fewer policy options, higher rates, less coverage for those higher rates.  There’s your scam.

    PatD – Loved the Bernie emoji.  This one counts, too.  ((??

  10. According to Tweety Matthews, Bernie running an ad in NY that says not only doesn’t Hillary pass his purity test, no one else does either, lol.. Evil Dems take campaign contributions.. Fantasy Land Bernie..

  11. That would make voting so much easier! Vote by phone with an emoji of your candidate.

  13. thanks jamie- they wrote to me offering membership as if an award of recognition.  they aren’t charging-but they just want my info….

  16. Ben Casselman 8:13 PM  http://fivethirtyeight.com
    Voting irregularities plague New York election

    New York City polls opened at 6 a.m. on Tuesday – or at least they were meant to. Social media quickly filled up with complaints of closed polling places, missing registrations and other issues. This afternoon New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer said that amid “widespread reports” of voting irregularities, his office would “undertake an audit of the operations and management of the Board of Elections.”

    I saw those some of those issues first-hand. I arrived at my polling place in Brooklyn’s Fort Greene neighborhood just before 8 a.m. to find mass confusion. The doors were open but workers were still setting up and no voting was taking place. Several dozen people waited in line, many of them on cell phones calling the New York City Board of Elections — which has a long history of incompetence in administering and counting the votes — or the media.

    “I came here at 6, came back at 7, they weren’t open and we’re still waiting,” said Mary Simpson-Driver, 66, who said she had lived in the neighborhood for some 40 years. This was her first time voting at this location, Simpson-Driver said, brandishing a change-of-site notification she had received in the mail; her old polling place had been in a nearby school, where voting had always gone smoothly.

    “They’re trying to steal our vote,” added her husband, Eddie Driver, 72.

    Poll workers explained that there was no coordinator on site, and that voting couldn’t begin without one. (They declined to comment further.) Voting finally began around 8:15 a.m. – more than two hours late — and by about 8:45 the line had mostly cleared out. Most of the people who were there when I arrived stayed around to vote, but I don’t know how many people gave up earlier in the morning.

    It’s hard to know how, if at all, the irregularities could affect tonight’s results. Most of the anger about the voting issues, at least on Twitter, seems to be coming from Sanders supporters, many of whom seem to suspect dirty tricks on behalf of the Clinton campaign or its Democratic Party backers. But most of the people waiting in line at my polling place were older African-American voters, a demographic group that has strongly favored Clinton. (In 2008, my district voted roughly 70-30 for Obama over Clinton, although the neighborhood has become whiter since then.)

    But whether or not the problems favor one candidate over another, they are a threat to the democratic process. As she left the polling place on Tuesday after finally casting her vote, Regina Robinson complained that in the general election in November, lines will be longer and the weather will be colder. She worried that next time people will leave without voting or won’t show up at all. She urged everyone she saw to call the Board of Elections to complain.

    “You’re not going to cheat us out of our vote,” Robinson said. “This place always votes.”

     

  17. Vote Counting Time, The New York Showdown

    Blue

    We know money has corrupted politics..  Demonizing the party he joined and it’s politians won’t change things.. Tweety saw it that way and i did when I watched it.. Bernie needs to work (raise money) for a Democratic Congress as well as being the nominee.. Change the court and start getting money out if it..

  19. And the point that Clooney made was that it was awful that because of Citizens United he had to raise enough to combat Corporate influence with equal money on the left.

    How do you get rid of Citizens United:  Pass a law that SCOTUS will be forced to review.
    How do you pass that law:  Change Congress.
    How do you change Congress:  Elect Democrats (or liberal Independents) and clean out the Tea Party.
    How do you clean out the house:  Start electing low level people to office so you can eventually change Gerrymandering of Districts.
    When will the next district redrawing take place:  2021.  You’ve got five years to make it happen or get a law through Congress that can get around states rights for honest redistricting at least for Federal elections.

    Back to backing Hillary who is actually trying to make all of the above happen.

     

  20. Un tied ‘Healthcare’ is one of the biggest MN companies. One of my pals clawed back $everal $Hundred M!LL!ON$ from a former UH CEO’$ over-compen$ation. That, after he’s fought toothg and nail to prevent MN nurses from making a living wage.

  22. These multimillion dollar packages for salary and golden parachutes are truly obscene.  Unfortunately, they all come under “overhead”.  A lot more class action and shareholder suits needed.

     

  26. Am I being too picky? It annoys me that so many TV reporters and anchors keep calling these primaries “elections” — no one is “elected” to anything in a primary.

  27. No worries, Mortonie. I need to post that warning somewhere. Thanks for participating.

  28. Looks like the only cliffhanger tonight is which news channel projects Clinton and Trump first.

  29. Wolf launches from his 3-point stance, projects Trump at 9pm sharp. No Dem projection

  30. Oh BTW, the WA delegates have not been allocated yet.  Thanks to the caucus system, Bernie is winning because there were there to grab any districts that voted Hillary but didn’t have pledged people to cover the voting.  Having now gone through the County votes last Saturday, it was the same grab that Obama used in 2008 after overwhelming the Clinton delegates in voting people forward.

    By the new laws the caucus count is taking place now.  It could take ages but likely big Sanders win.

    The Primary portion will be a vote that opens for mail in on May 6 and the primary itself takes place on May 24

    It is a closed Primary and you must be registered no later than May 16 (in person).

    I personally favor closed primaries and hate caucuses.  Open ones are too easy to manipulate and caucuses are just plain dishonest in the sense that they are controlled by players able to alter the vote.

  31. Well, it’s early, but so far the Cuban/Canadian is having New York values stuffed up…..

  33. CNN keeps saying exit polls show “very close” race on Democratic side. Trump’s blowout could be the big story tonight.

  34. Craig – It’s a primary election with election officials overseeing today’s apparent chaos.  Election seems OK.   Or a cluster@&$*^

  35. Single digits in some locations, but  close only counts in horseshoes.  Bernie either wins or he doesn’t.

  36. I assume the early results are primarily  from the NYC area.  Hillary beat Bernie in Queens & Brooklyn according to CNN.   Whoa.

  39. Start converting your assets into something you can bury

    President Trump so you can see what a depression looks like

  41. Trump victory speech insulted no one. Only referred to Cruz and Kasich by their official titles, no nicknames. BORING!

  42. Bernie’s campaign manager was on Hardball earlier.  He was an utter dick, and he obviously did a marvelous job in NY.  NY didn’t buy the Nasty BS.  I hope he didn’t notice.

  45. Thank god I won’t have to listen to the “Bernie won the last 7 [8 or 9] contests”, and momentum, yada yada BS anymore. I’m waiting to see what the delegate count is. That 28k crowd didn’t predict sh*t.

  47. Dinkins looks good considering.  I hope Hillary takes your advice Poobah and is gracious and inclusive of Bernie’s supporters.   She should leave the snarky stuff to her supporters.

  51. No matter how you spin it, Cruz had a really shitty night. A really shitty night for Ted Cruz is a really good night for the country.

  52. Numbers still show Hillary with close to a 20 point margin. If this holds up, what case does Bernie have left to make?

  58. April 19, 2016 at 10:15 pm

    Tony, yes.  And for Hillary.  Let’s see who meets that standard.

  59. Her remarks tonight are very important. Hope that they are well thought out. The nomination is hers. Now is the time to look, act and speak like a president.

  60. She nicely reached out to Sanders supporters: “There is much more that unites us than divides us.”

    Her surrogates and supporters should follow her lead on this.

  63. Disagree with Hillary endorsing “Ban the Box” just now, the move to prevent employers from asking about a potential employee’s criminal record. Employers have a right to that information.

  64. Hillary is doing something no other candidate has done – she is talking like a credible presidential candidate deliverin a positive message.

    I laughed when drumpf found THE black guy in the very pretty crowd behind him and shook his hand.

  66. Trump reigning it in; looks like he’s listening to his new handlers.

    Congrats to the Clintonistas on tonight’s win.

    Bernie will seem like a kitty cat next to what she’ll deal with in the general election.

    As for the effort to reconcile the party, she is the ultimate insider.  How can she get folks to vote for her when she represents the very thing we don’t want?   How is she going to get those folks to stand in line for her in cold November?

    There had also been a grass roots for Bernie movement in the works for awhile, in the event he is not the nominee; it looks like that will be the next step now.

  68. He is now talking out of the other side of his mouth. This afternoon he was talking about how Bernie had kicked her butt in Vermont as if winning his home state was a huge accomplishment. Now hes making it up.  I see now why a GW law grad opened a comic book store.  God he’s delusional.

  71. Agreed.  Employers need to know who they are bringing into their companies.  I understand that there may be minor offenses that prevent some people from getting jobs, but that should always be the employer’s right to know.

  72. Weaver said he’s staying in to flip Super Delegates regardless of popular vote win or pledged delegate lead.

  73. I can only gather that Jeff Weaver lives in an alternate universe.  Does he seriously think that a 20 point loss in NY is going to boost Bernie’s chances in Pennsylvania and New Jersey?

  76. April 19, 2016 at 10:49 pm

    Tony, either it’s a case of great minds OR its so obvious even dimwitted see it. 🙂

  78. An awful lot of these minor drug offenses are getting probation and conviction set asides such as all the ones the President just pardoned.  I could envision a provision in those cases that included a waiver freeing them of the need to declare.

     

  79. Pogo, pretty sure she is further ahead in delegates than Obama was after losing to her in New York

  80. Jamie, for her sake maybe she didn’t mean (or understand) what she said. But without qualification she endorsed a well known proposal that all employers be banned from asking about any criminal record. Her team should nuance that immediately, that’s a disastrous stand for the general. Imagine the TV ad: “Hillary would deny an employer the right to ask Willie Horton if he had ever been in jail.”

  84. Oliver Willis ‏@owillis  

    “Clinton Elected President, Fails To Win Every State In Stirring Rebuke Of Candidacy”

    Yep, perfect Tweet describes the bar set for Hillary.. Umm, i can remember when Obama was winning and the calls went out, Hillary needs to unite the party.. Now it’s up to her to unite the party again. How about Sen Sanders role here?

  85. Interesting tidbit gained while reading The Buffalo News website: Mr Trump spent $67,000 in advertising for the New York Primary; Governor Kasich, $480,000. Of course Mr Trump got oodles more “free” media exposure than the Governor. Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free.

    Seriously, if Carl Paladino is part of the Trump business brain trust who goes to Washington please be warned, America: this man is a carbuncle. Btw, an 18 year old High School student is challenging Paladino for his school board seat. The young man is well versed in the issues & presents himself well. The Unions are backing the 18 year old.

  86. OSH

     

    I didn’t hear it  I just can.t believe he would be so stupid

  89. Clinton won YUUUUUDJE ! Not a single one of the 20 something polls in the last 3 weeks put her anywhere near 20 points ahead.

    Now, dammit, these two had better start talking palsy, about a shared vision. The two points from which Sanders followers draw energy are the perceived affair between Clinton and Big Banks, and the perception that Clinton likes wars. If they can make peace on those topics, this campaign becomes a long, tedious,  yawn, victory procession, with a monster harvest of electors, plus a Senate takeover, and a good chance to change the House and Supreme Court.

    On the ripper side, will cruz or kasich have the guts to run on a Christian America ticket ? If not, I project a 30 point Dem romp in November. If so, it will be even more lopsided.

  92. Weaver was just talking trash and keeping the troops hopes up. This defeat was his, and it was utterly enormous.

  93. Jamie,

    I don’t understand how the Clinton campaign failed to pack the caucuses and outmaneuver the Sanders folks across Northwest tier. She should have been able to take states like AK and ID, if not MN, OR, and WA. Sanders won Alaska and ID with tiny, tiny numbers, and the turnout in OR & WA wasn’t much to brag about, either.

     

  94. I heard a detailed explanation of ban the box.  It s just for the first interview, to give folks with criminal records a possible second look and a chance to explain their past…there s no provision to ban any employers from asking any questions they wish regarding employable or disqualified applicants.    Its really for workers who may have done some dumb stuff as a younger person but have matured and no longer even think of any such behaviors.  It simply prevents instant File 13 destinations for tainted potential workers.

     

  95. “In religion and politics people’s beliefs and convictions are in almost every case gotten at second-hand, and without examination, from authorities who have not themselves examined the questions at issue but have taken them at second-hand from other non-examiners, whose opinions about them were not worth a brass farthing.”
    – Autobiographical dictation, 10 July 1908. Published in Autobiography of Mark Twain, Volume 3

  96. craig, not to worry about ban the box as it applies to applications and only helps open the door to possible subsequent interviews where one is generally grilled on their evil/saintly past.  dexter explains it better for you above.

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