Craig Crawford

Abdul El-Sayed’s Democratic primary victory in Michigan proved a core progressive thesis: winning in a tough midterm isn’t all about persuading undecided suburban moderates—it’s about activating the disaffected.

While establishment voters turned out strongly for Haley Stevens, El-Sayed countered by expanding the electorate in campus and progressive hubs.

Early returns show a dramatic surge in voter turnout across key local communities and college campus precincts compared to past elections. High-propensity base voters alone cannot generate spikes like that. Mathematically, it requires dragging seldom-voting residents off the sidelines.

If El-Sayed simply retains standard Democratic midterm voters, he won’t need to dramatically moderate his message for suburban swing voters—he just needs to mobilize a fraction of Michigan’s 3 million disaffected voters to cross the finish line.

That doesn’t mean ignoring swing voters. But instead of awkwardly pivoting to the center to win them over, El-Sayed can win with a much smaller slice—those who actually resonate with his primary campaign message.

For the complete precinct data, turnout math, and model breakdown, read my full analysis at trailmix.cc/substack.

Abdul El-Sayed was outspent by a 9:1 margin (more than $60 million) by Haley Stevens.

NBC News Steve Kornacki just called the Michigan Senate Democratic primary race for him.

Here’s what I’m watching tonight: key precincts for monitoring Abdul El-Sayed’s appeal to infrequent voters, compared to turnout in past elections.

Comparing real-time participation surges against historical baselines reveals whether his campaign is expanding the electorate — which is how Socialist Democrats can win general elections.

These precincts anchor key student, youth, and low-propensity urban voter bases.

Washtenaw: Ann Arbor Wards 1 & 2 (U of M Campus)

• 2022 Baseline: ~15,800
• 2026 Early/Absentee: _______
• 2026 Election Day (In-Person): _______
• 2026 Total Turnout: _______
• Surge vs. 2022: _______
• El-Sayed Margin: _______%

Washtenaw: Ypsilanti (EMU & Downtown)

• 2022 Baseline: ~3,800
• 2026 Early/Absentee: _______
• 2026 Election Day (In-Person): _______
• 2026 Total Turnout: _______
• Surge vs. 2022: _______
• El-Sayed Margin: _______%

Wayne: Detroit West Side (D2 / Livernois)

• 2022 Baseline: ~15,500
• 2026 Early/Absentee: _______
• 2026 Election Day (In-Person): _______
• 2026 Total Turnout: _______
• Surge vs. 2022: _______
• El-Sayed Margin: _______%

Wayne: Detroit East Side (D4 / Jefferson Chalmers)

• 2022 Baseline: ~12,200
• 2026 Early/Absentee: _______
• 2026 Election Day (In-Person): _______
• 2026 Total Turnout: _______
• Surge vs. 2022: _______
• El-Sayed Margin: _______%

More about the potential power of low-propensity voters on My Substack.

Today’s Democratic primary in Michigan is the opening bell in an ideological war over Medicare for All that will roil the upcoming presidential campaign.

The Senate showdown between progressive Abdul El-Sayed and establishment favorite Haley Stevens lays bare the fundamental split on healthcare. El-Sayed is demanding single-payer Medicare for All without compromise. Stevens—who flirted with single-payer before retreating to Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) triage—represents a centrist wing offering: corporate-friendly tweaks under the banner of “universal care.”

For years, party moderates have quieted the base by stealing progressive vocabulary while preserving private insurance profits. Calling ACA subsidies “universal healthcare” is a corporate risk-management scheme disguised as radical reform.

Progressives are done letting centrists dodge the core issue. Today’s vote signals the end of the polite fiction: either you support genuine single-payer, or not.

Read my full breakdown at trailmix.cc/substack

Here is the reality check: there are no face-to-face negotiations happening between the United States and Iran today. Trump is desperate for a PR victory ahead of a bruising midterm election, spinning indirect, backchannel messaging via Qatar and Pakistan as some sort of high-stakes diplomatic summit.

Meanwhile, Tehran is bypassing Washington entirely, negotiating directly with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz so they don’t look like they are capitulating to American threats.

• Donald Trump abruptly canceled what he hyped as the “biggest attack since World War II” on Iran, bragging to reporters on Air Force One that a new round of direct talks begins Monday. The spin is transparently designed to rebrand his failing military campaign into the work of a master dealmaker walking the world back from the ledge.
• In direct contradiction to the White House narrative, the Iranian foreign ministry completely dismissed the idea of a US summit, with officials calling the claims of direct bilateral negotiations “nothing new but the lies.” Tehran maintains they are strictly brokering the management of the Strait of Hormuz with regional neighbors, not Washington.
• While Trump sells a phantom summit to the American electorate, regional intermediaries from Qatar and Pakistan are quietly scrambling as emissaries to handle the actual backchannel diplomacy. The reality is a giant game of geopolitical telephone designed to let both sides claim a domestic political win without ever sitting in the same room.

When a botched $15 million renovation of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool began floating away in sheets, Donald Trump need a big lie and a scapegoat. His scheme just fell apart.

Trump’s government thugs had targeted an unsuspecting 67-year-old cyclist who simply reached into the water to touch a peeling liner. U.S. Park Police detained him, and the Justice Department rushed to slap him with a felony indictment carrying up to 10 years in federal prison—branding him a national “saboteur” on television.

Late yesterday, the DOJ quietly filed a 20-page surrender, admitting the damage was actually caused by a hasty, botched contractor installation.

This isn’t just an embarrassing bureaucratic blunder. It’s a terrifying demonstration of weaponized incompetence. When the executive branch can invent a crime to cover up its own failure, and absolute immunity shields prosecutors from accountability, any average citizen can become collateral damage to protect a news cycle.

Read the full breakdown on my Substack.