The Labor Day Pivot: From Begging for Bucks to Begging for Votes

Sixty Days to the Midterms…

Labor Day weekend marks the campaign kickoff. Budgets are set, and ad time is purchased. Operations wind down chasing the mythical “persuadable” middle to focus on identifying their actual supporters for GOTV (Get-Out-The-Vote) drives.

This year, Democrats face a special, exhausting challenge: educating millions of voters who are currently under siege by Republican suppression efforts. It is no longer just about getting out the vote; it is about giving voters a survival guide to actually cast a ballot under fire.

What are the most blatant suppression tactics you are seeing in your state, and how are local groups fighting back? Drop your frontline reports in comments throughout the campaign.

🔮 THE 60-DAY MIDTERM PREDICTION METER 🔮

🏛️ HOUSE:

Democrats ___  |  Republicans ___

⚖️ SENATE:

Democrats ___  |  Republicans ___

No hedging. No pundit fog. Just your best prediction. (Add independents to the party where you expect them to caucus).

Prediction Resources:

71 thoughts on “The Labor Day Pivot: From Begging for Bucks to Begging for Votes”

  1. There’ve been times that I thought I couldn’t last for long
    But now I think I’m able to carry on
    It’s been a long, a long time comin’,
    But I know, oh-oo-oh, a change gonna come, oh yes, it will.

  2. Craig – I’ve also seen one mission pushing for a general strike if there are ANY shenanigans in November.

  3. Jamie, it’s my organizing principle of life: Absurdist Optimism.

    Here’s my prediction:

    🏛️ HOUSE:
    Democrats 235 | Republicans 200
    ⚖️ SENATE:
    Democrats 53 | Republicans 47

  4. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/missouri-candidate-allegedly-wanted-campaign-manager-plant-cocaine-opp-rcna596022

    A candidate for the Missouri state House is accused of trying to plant cocaine and Adderall on a political rival.

    Thomas Christopher Ross, 37, was charged Thursday with one count of conspiring to distribute a controlled substance after the person who authorities say he asked to plant the drugs — his former campaign manager — contacted authorities, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for Missouri’s Western District said in a news release.

    Officials say he tried to plant the drugs on his opponent, Louise Secker, in the Republican primary last month.

    According to a probable cause affidavit, the former campaign manager gave local police a black nylon glove that Ross is alleged to have provided in June. The glove contained a small bag of cocaine and Adderall, the document said.

    After Joplin police reached out to the FBI, the campaign manager told federal authorities that Ross wanted the drugs planted in Secker’s car or purse while Ross was on vacation in South Carolina, the affidavit alleges.

    In a series of texts Ross is alleged to have sent to the campaign manager while he was in Myrtle Beach, he offered the campaign manager luck “getting the substance of the matter sorted this week” and later said: “Any luck with the substance of the matter? I wont be gone much longer.”

    “Taking it no luck with the substance of it all?” he is alleged to have texted a few days later.

    Later, during a conversation between the campaign manager and Ross that was secretly recorded by the FBI, Ross suggested that they call in an anonymous tip that Secker had drugs in her car, according to the affidavit.

    “If you can pull it off,” Ross allegedly said, “pull it off.”

    Ross beat Secker by less than three dozen votes to become the GOP candidate in the House contest in Missouri’s 161st District.

    *Aaaand he didn’t need to do that to win the primary. He tried to screw up someone else’s life, but messed up his own instead.
    Instant karma!

  5. Missouri Supreme Court Delivers Win for Democrats in Redistricting Case
    The court said a map redrawn to benefit Republicans could not be used in November and said voters should decide on the new boundaries. The state attorney general vowed to appeal the decision. — Missouri Independent

  6. Why I think my predictions are the outer edge of within reason…
    HOUSE: The most conservative estimator, Inside Elections, currently projects a Democratic gain of 2–10 House seats even after the GOP-friendly redistricting changes. Each recent update from Cook and Sabato have moved districts toward Democrats.. And a new Cornell model has a 226-seat Democratic midpoint but a statistical upper range reaching 258. So 235 requires a genuine wave, but not a tsunami.
    SENATE: My Senate 53–47 call is more audacious. Inside Elections currently projects Democrats gaining 2–4 seats, meaning 50–50 is roughly the top of its present range. To reach 53, Democrats would need the favorable environment to cascade through virtually every competitive race and then steal a couple from the next tier. But Senate races often turn on presidential approval, and guess what, Trump might not have hit bottom yet.

  7. 🎉 A LITTLE TRAIL MIX MILESTONE: Our daily Digital Diner podcast just crossed a YouTube threshold for next-level presentation! Hitting 3,000 watch hours just eight months after firing up our livestream on Christmas Eve 2025 proves one thing: people showed up and a bunch stuck around. This unlocks some new creator tools. In keeping with our Trail Mix tradition, I won’t be taking advantage of the ads—but I am working with YouTube on something more fun: autographed copies of my books, personally inscribed with your message. Coming soon! And who knows… maybe Trail Mix T-shirts and coffee mugs inscribed with our own trademark snark. ☕

  8. https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/02/politics/latest-us-strikes-against-iran-marked-a-shift-in-strategy

    Trump said Wednesday that the most recent round of US strikes went beyond targeting Iran’s radar systems, in an effort to eliminate the nation’s ability to track ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

    “They were trying to see the ships,” he said from the Oval Office. “They can’t see it because they have no radar, because we blew it up, and we blew up much more than their radar last night.”

  9. Craig – your prediction looks good. I think what settles it in the Senate count is that sfb plans on spreading his girth all over the country, or at least those cities with something he likes, campaigning for himself. The more he goes out and messes up flight schedules, motorcades blocking highways, and just plain stinking up the place, the better the Dems have a chance.

  10. *Substitute the word “little” for hungry, sick, unhoused, jobless, unskilled, ostracized, etc. Sharing is caring and empathy is a virtue. Socialism. It’s everywhere…or should be.

  11. *sigh* Words have definitions.
    From Britannica:(link)

    socialism, social and economic doctrine that calls for public rather than private ownership or control of property and natural resources. According to the socialist view, individuals do not live or work in isolation but live in cooperation with one another. Furthermore, everything that people produce is in some sense a social product, and everyone who contributes to the production of a good is entitled to a share in it. Society as a whole, therefore, should own or at least control property for the benefit of all its members.

    Social is a term that predates “Socialism” Just because “social” is in the description doesn’t mean it has anything to do with “socialism”
    When you use the term “socialism” to describe community-based support, you do you cause more harm than good, as you attach your cause to a failed idea. If you really want to persuade the American public to support your community-based support ideas, then, maybe, you need to come up with a better term. One without all the baggage and a more accurate description of what you propose.
    Or not.
    Jack

  12. Jack,

    This is why I always opt for Social Democracy. The cooperation is on where the public purse is spent to benefit the greatest number. All of the developed nations at the very least provide health, education and childcare in some form that allows the general population to work.

    The taxes are higher on the wealthiest, but the overall society has fewer problems.

  13. “Words have definitions“

    based on popular acceptance, there’s not a granite dictionary in God’s hands

    “socialism” is bad branding but only because of successful capitalist propaganda in low education red areas

  14. Today in the Diner…
    1. Mike Johnson Hides Epstein Files & Lindsay Clancy Trial
    2. Lindsay Clancy Holdout & Why Mike Johnson Shut Congress
    3. Mike Johnson Flees Epstein Vote & Lindsay Clancy Chaos

    Mike Johnson shuts Congress to dodge the Epstein files while the Lindsay Clancy murder trial hits a wall in Massachusetts. Plus, grocery inflation.

    Speaker Mike Johnson decided the best way to handle the Epstein files was to pack up and send Congress home until after the election. It is the ultimate disappearing act from Washington, leaving a trail of unanswered questions and a stalled discharge petition. Meanwhile, we are diving deep into the true crime chaos of the Lindsay Clancy trial up in Massachusetts, where a single holdout juror is testing the limits of the justice system while Patrick Clancy apparently vacations in Costa Rica.

    On the economic front, the Diner regulars are duking it out over inflation, comparing 1950s grocery bills to modern pizza prices. We also tackle the infuriating maze of United Healthcare and medical pre-authorizations for drugs like Mounjaro, proving that the private insurance system is as broken as ever. To cap it all off, we explore a bizarre online retro arcade game that looks like it was designed by Steven Miller to deport digital immigrants. Just another peaceful day paying attention to the madness. ☕

    Live Chat: https://trailmix.cc/chat
    Website: https://trailmix.cc
    Alerts: https://trailmix.cc/alerts

    00:00 Intro and Mr Rogers Socialism
    07:54 Lindsay Clancy Trial Holdout
    09:30 Massachusetts Justice and Karen Read
    16:16 Mike Johnson Hides Epstein Files
    23:54 Pumpkin Time and Michael Dukakis
    30:35 United Healthcare and Mounjaro
    40:50 Donald Trump Gulfstream Tariffs
    50:47 Steven Miller Retro Arcade Games
    01:01:34 Nene Thailand Guitar Riff
    — Human directed and edited. Machine drafted (Gemini Pro).

  15. Today Jack was discussing percentage of income spent for household. Here is 1950 vs. 2025. Some items aren’t missing such as one or two earner incomes and child care.

  16. https://keepingupwithinflation.com/statistics/price-of-groceries-by-item/

    What does a trip to the grocery store actually cost in 2026? We track individual item prices using BLS and USDA data so you can see exactly what’s gone up, what’s come down, and by how much. See also Grocery Price Changes for the big picture and Wages vs Inflation to understand purchasing power.

    *This link lists price changes 2016-July, 2026.
    Folks can see that an item has increased, year over year. I’m a creature of habit and buy the same six to eight items every week, so I notice the differences. I don’t buy meat, so that doesn’t impact my cart. On the home page, chicken is the only thing that has dropped in price.
    ***

    https://keepingupwithinflation.com/post/walmart-grocery-carts-sept-2022-vs-march-2026/

    What Happened to the Walmart Cart? Sept 2022 vs March 2026

    Takeaways

    The same basket costs about 7–8.5% more for grocery, ~4% for the snack cart. That’s over roughly 3.5 years (Sept 2022 → Mar 2026)—below the ~11% loss in the dollar’s purchasing power, so in real terms these carts are cheaper than in 2022. Your personal experience still depends on what you buy.

    Store brand vs name brand: The store-brand grocery cart went up more in percentage terms (8.5% vs 6.8%). The name-brand cart had one huge drop (Crisco oil -39%) that pulled its average down; excluding that, name-brand would look closer to store-brand. So “store brand is always a win” isn’t automatic; item-by-item still matters.

    Coffee, juice, and soda are heavy lifters. Folgers, OJ, and Coke are up 38–47%. If you buy those every week, they’re a big part of why your receipt is higher. Milk in this basket is flat.

    Eggs and some fats are genuine bright spots. Eggs down ~31%, vegetable oil and butter down in the teens. That’s real relief on staples that had spiked earlier.

    Snack cart is the most mixed. Half the items up, half down. Candy and some chips up; other chips, popcorn, jerky, and frozen pizza down. So “snacks” aren’t one story—they’re a split between chocolate/sweet (often up) and savory/portable (many down).

    Protein is still up. Ground beef and chicken in these carts are up double digits. So the “what’s for dinner” core is still costing more, even as eggs and some packaged snacks have eased.
    ***

    https://keepingupwithinflation.com/statistics/wages-vs-inflation/

    The central question of the inflation era: are wages keeping up? Nominal wages rose about 28% from 2019 to 2025, while CPI annual averages rose about 26% over the same period — leaving only a small aggregate real gain.
    Here’s the full picture.
    See how wages compare against Rent by State, Grocery Price Changes, and Inflation by Category.

  17. One thing about groceries is we buy them weekly, forcing us to confront price changes constantly. And people aren’t liking what they think they’re seeing…

    Food prices top voter concerns ahead of midterm elections
    Farm Progress America: New survey reveals grocery bills and cost of living dominate political priorities across all party lines, signaling agriculture’s central role in November races. More than 40% of Republicans, nearly 58% of Democrats and 44% of Independents said a candidate’s stance on food affordability would strongly influence their vote.

  18. This chart has a few problems but it is from a reliable source, or as reliable as you can get these days. Notice we are spending more of our income eating out rather than at home.

  19. The 2 main problems with the above chart. First ‘ disposable personal income’ is an average. So folks on the top are spending way less a % then those on the bottom.
    Second, In many ways comparing food costs in 1960 to those in 2026 is an apples to oranges. These days a lot of our food costs are paying some one else to prepare and cook our food. That chicken is a great example. If I had bought a bag of chicken nuggets I would have paid twice the price and that is on the cheap side. I also would have gotten less food value as half the weight would have been in the breading.
    I also thought the eating out to be interesting. That triples the cost of you food. At least. How much do the ingredients cost on that burrito?

  20. Labor Day means a lot to me. In 1979 I became friends with a World War 1. veteran in Bellevue, Ohio.. His name was Bert Wolfe and he educated me on the history of the IWW and other unions and union activities around Chicago. Bert was working for the railroad. Once Bert was recruited to work security on a car in a parade in Chicago it was the Car of Eugene C. Deb’s.
    Bert told me all about the Haymarket Square massacre in 1886 and how for many years that area became a place for people to stand on their soap boxes and scream out their opinions.
    Big Bill Haywood was a huge presence in the union movements in this country . Gordon provides a biography of the great Mr. Haywood.
    **William Dudley “Big Bill” Haywood — 1869-1928**

    Big Bill was one of the most famous and feared labor leaders in American history. **William Dudley Haywood**, nicknamed Big Bill for his 6-foot, broad-shouldered frame, was a founding member and leader of the Industrial Workers of the World (IWW) and a member of the executive committee of the Socialist Party of America. He was born February 4, 1869 in Salt Lake City, Utah, and died May 18, 1928 in Moscow.

    **Early life and mines**

    Haywood’s father, a former Pony Express rider, died when Bill was three. At age nine he blinded his right eye whittling a slingshot and never replaced it with a glass eye, which is why he always turned his left profile to the camera. With little formal schooling, he started working in the mines at 15, with stints as a cowboy and homesteader. The Haymarket Massacre in 1886 and the Pullman Strike in 1894 pushed him toward unionism.

    **Western Federation of Miners and One Big Union**

    In 1896, while working an Idaho silver mine, he heard WFM president Ed Boyce speak and joined the Western Federation of Miners. By 1900 he was on its General Executive Board, and in 1902 became secretary-treasurer, the number two job.

    The WFM was soon locked in the Colorado Labor Wars of 1903-04 around Cripple Creek, a brutal conflict that killed more than 30 workers. The defeats there convinced Haywood that craft unions divided workers. He became an advocate of industrial unionism and syndicalism — organizing all workers in an industry into One Big Union, regardless of skill or ethnicity, and favoring direct action over politics.

    **Founding the IWW**

    Late in 1904, radicals met in Chicago to plan a new revolutionary union. On June 27, 1905, at Brand’s Hall, Haywood opened its first convention:

    > “Fellow Workers, this is the Continental Congress of the working class. We are here to confederate the workers of this country into a working class movement that shall have for its purpose the emancipation of the working class…”

    The organization became the Industrial Workers of the World — the Wobblies.

    Haywood led the IWW in its most famous fights: the Colorado Labor Wars, the 1912 Lawrence Textile Strike, and textile strikes in Massachusetts and New Jersey. At Lawrence, he pioneered sending strikers’ hungry children to sympathetic families in New York and Vermont, which won national public sympathy.

    **Trials and national notoriety**

    He was often targeted by prosecutors for his support of militant tactics. After former Idaho Governor Frank Steunenberg was assassinated in 1905, Haywood, Charles Moyer and George Pettibone were arrested in Denver and spirited to Idaho on special trains. The prosecution’s only witness was Harry Orchard, the confessed bomber.

    The 1907 trial in Boise made him a national figure. Defended by Clarence Darrow, he was acquitted after the jury deliberated nine hours. Socialist leader Eugene Debs called him “the Lincoln of Labor.”

    His radicalism eventually split him from both the WFM and the Socialists. He was expelled from the Socialist Party in 1913 for advocating sabotage. During World War I his anti-war stance led to a second mass prosecution. In 1918 he was one of 101 IWW members tried under the Espionage Act during the First Red Scare and sentenced to 20 years.

    **Exile**

    In 1921, while out on appeal, Haywood fled to Soviet Russia. He spent his last years there, working on labor projects and writing his autobiography, *Bill Haywood’s Book*. He died in Moscow in 1928. He is one of only five Americans ever buried in the Kremlin Wall Necropolis — a final honor for a man the New York Times in 1917 had called “the most hated and feared figure in America,” and whom workers knew simply as Big Bill.

  21. the “basket of goods” is an accepted standard for measuring inflation, BiDs habits most closely approximate that, their personal consumption habits might skew comparative analysis a bit

    feeding a family is a whole different ballgame than one adult feeding themselves

    the regime knows perception is that working class families are getting crushed which is why all their current messaging addresses that, their God King thinks you should be happy with less (no matter how JD Wormtongue tries to spin it)

  22. Or that $30 dollar pizza? What $5 for ingredients? 25 to pay somebody to cook and serve it? If you can do that then by any historical or even world standard you are a rich person. You just don’t know it.

    Jack

  23. Our government would rather hunt down guys heading to work at 7 AM than actual predators. James Talarico absolutely nails this hypocritical dumpster fire. Watch the short, then catch today’s full podcast:

  24. $30 is what a non-chain pizza costs these days, cheese and meat is expensive

    inflation is inflation

    I can also find you a $50 pizza and I can even find you $100 pizza, K shaped economy

  25. Also to figure into costs are some items that don’t change in price, but the weight changes. This is very common in breakfast cereals. The Box may look the same size but the width is smaller. Also, items that were once by the pound are now 12 oz instead of 16 oz. etc.

    Jack is right to the extent that very few families are now a single income, all meals cooked at home, only one vehicle and so on. It is a way of life that has virtually disappeared in our modern society.

  26. Craig – That keepingupwithinflation.com site (see previous post) tracks “individual item prices using BLS and USDA data.”

    This is the math folks care about; I can no longer do what I did two or three years ago, and in some cases, two or three months ago.

    Folks have items they buy on the regular, and they know if they have gone up or not, or in the case of chicken.

    Soy milk is double what it was when I moved here, and I can’t even find organic/non-GMO anymore; almond, coconut, and oat have gone up, but not like soy milk. Found a reciprocal to just blitz silken tofu with 2:1 or 3:1 water to tofu ratio, so that’s my next test. Nothing else works in mashed potatoes.

    When I moved here, I bought the biggest bag of peppermint patties for my dad; it was $9 and change. Now, it’s $14 and change and the bag is slightly smaller.

    Folks notice those things. Most don’t think, hmmm, grocery-wise now it’s so much better than 1950.

  27. BiD

    From your link says it all about how trustworthy it is.

    Snack Cart: $94.20 → $97.89 (+3.9%

    Besides the soft drink isle the snack isle has seen the biggest increase in the last 4 years. More like 39%

    Jack

  28. they shrinkflated my haagen dasz (and most other ice creams)

    a “pint” is now 14 oz

    see how redefinition works? 😜

  29. Yep, some women used to be trapped at home, dependent on someone else to get them or their kids even to a doctor. The good, old days.

  30. Craig – Today’s diner music reminded me of this song. “I love America..can I afford to move above my station?…I loved America while she was fleecing me.”

    I think my favorite line is, “I love America, and I know how tall she is without her platform shoes.” The myth of American exceptionalism!

  31. i make a lot of pizza at home, don’t think i can make a decent pie for less than $10 and that’s with limited toppings

    i use store brand cheese too and it’s still expensive

  32. And, the paper products that skyrocketed during Covid never returned to previous prices.

    Shrinkflation. Greedflation. An updated thesaurus including those new words would/should call those things “theft.”

    Did they raise the wages of the workers to come up with this less-for-more business model? A minuscule amount went to workers; the shareholders and the C-suite suits get the lion’s share.

  33. My childhood favorite was the Chef Boyaree cheese pizza kit in a box because I love the sour sauce, especially when it gets a little burnt.

    Then they removed the cheese packet and jacked up the price.

    It’s just one can of sauce and two crust packets now.

    So, I just buy an individual can of the sauce, make crust from scratch, and shake a bit of parm from the canister. It probably costs less than $4 that way.

    Aside from pricey i fratelli in Texas, or Valentino’s in Nebraska, I’d rather just have my weird, homemade pizza.

  34. Beware of Pumpkin Time:

    Liberals look great in fall polls until voters see pumpkins and revert to conservative defaults. But what if the pumpkin cost more than ever?

    🍽️ From today’s Digital Diner menu

  35. as a bigly coffee drinker, I am brand flexible and look for the sales but yes, it’s at least up 30% since Trump’s adventurism in South America

  36. junk food is always the most susceptible to inflation and they have RFK Junior to tell you not to eat that but Trump obviously likes his junk food. JD obviously likes his junk food.

  37. Last coffee was an 11-oz. bag, but it was on sale (guessing it was about to expire), but I don’t go by the date on coffee. It was $5, I think.

  38. Maybe a good ad would just be regular folks talking about prices and how it was better in 2024 UNDER BIDEN!

    Speaking of pumpkin season, if you’ve seen the price of Halloween candy, you’ll realize that’s not happening in any big way, either.

    Everyone’s porch light will be off!

    When I was a little kid, it was full-size candy bars and homemade popcorn balls. Then, when I was about 9, they started with the stories of razor blades and pins in apples and stuff, so you could only have wrapped, store-bought candy. (Probably the candy syndicate trying to push out the homemade goods.) Then they changed to “fun” sized bars; not smaller, more “fun” than big bars. Then, those bars got smaller. Now, they don’t even use real chocolate in some of it, apparently.

  39. Craig… yes… coffee has gone waaaaaay up in price. Like a lot of New Englanders, I buy Dunkin coffee. I no longer buy it at the grocery store… I buy it directly at a local Dunkin’s. At my grocery store it’s $14 for a 12 oz bag. I can buy a whole pound at Dunks for $10.

  40. I’d tell you a good substitute brand, but I don’t want you driving the price up 😈

    i make sure i don’t get el salvador sourced coffee though since they became a for-profit torture state 😇

    i will pay more for coffee not from el salvador

  41. *Found an ER bill from 1991; base cost, plus tetanus shot, removal of foreign object from foot, stitches, sterile bandage, and antibiotics: $118.00. Adjusted for inflation, that’s about $250.00 now…but it would be at least a $500 copay today, depending on your insurance. It might be much more since they code denial of anything as “surgery” now.

    Hospitals should not be “for profit.” These big, fancy lobbies with art, but no humans except those passing through it. Why? Hospitals shouldn’t have shareholders.

  42. walking into an ER costs $1500 or more now, that’s for little to no actual care, start adding for anything performed

    and I know the response is well then go to urgent care

    Guess where urgent care is going to tell you to go

    an er wouldn’t even do what you had done, they’d schedule you for “surgery”

    $$$$$$$$

    i think you have to move to Virgin River for the standard of care you describe

  43. Poobah, yes, like a “pint” of ice cream is now 14 oz. so is a “pound” of coffee. And yes, coffee is more expensive than it was in July, 2025 – by 10.01% BUT, it’s just about what it was on Jan 1, 2026, (9.366 then, 9.317 in July). To put it in context, Coffee was $5.991 per pound in May, 2024 – a 55.51% increase in just over two years. and is up 104% over the last 5 years. (Data from Fed Reserve St. Louis.) So it’s doubled in 5 years. Something like 15% per year doubles the price in 5 years. Renee, Dunkin coffee runs $10/14 oz. bag at WallyWorld hereabouts.

    And pizza, don’t even get me started. OK, too late. Mrs. P and I used to get gluten free Freschetta pizza and loaded it up with fresh veggies for a quick meal. It was introduced about $9.99 back around 2020 and it’s just under $12 now – 20% more. Not sure whether the weight is less now, but it has been behind market basket inflation overall since 2020 – 20% increase for that pizza and 50% increase for the market basket. Coffee on the other hand is up 130% since 2020 as a point of comparison. And I REALLY LIKE coffee.

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