Author: craigcrawford

Notes from last night’s Trump rally in Pennsylvania:

Trump on polling: “If it’s bad, I say it’s fake. If it’s good, I say, that’s the most accurate poll perhaps ever.”

A rare hint of introspection. Donald Trump: “I don’t like anybody that doesn’t like me. I’ll be honest…Sounds childish…When they don’t like me, I don’t like them. That’s the way it is. Call it a personality defect.”

At least he’s not a Communist. Trump on Kamala Harris: “Her father is a Fascist. He’s a Marxist.”

Trump: “Barack Hussein! A lot of people say he’s actually running the country right now.”

Trump trashes Zelenskyy as “the greatest salesman in history” and says “he wants them to win this election so badly”

Trump on his mass deportation: “We’ll take one young women with two children and they’ll put ’em in a bus to take ’em back to some country and it’ll be put in the fake news and it’ll be a terrible story, and the whole country will turn against it.”

Nothing like an ad for an Ivermectin Contagion Emergency Kit to help you answer the question, “Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?”

Earlier in the day there was this gem:
REPORTER: “I’ve spoken with some economists about your tariff proposals and they say they don’t see how it won’t make items cost more.”
TRUMP: “I don’t need Congress, but they’ll approve it. I’ll have the right to impose them myself if they don’t.”

And he just won’t let go of the fact that McDonalds has responded in writing that franchises do not keep records for part time positions held 45 years ago. Why is this such a grievance for him?

I’m sure Kamala wins, but how could we lose?

Young men without college degrees who seldom vote are a problem.

Trump is going after them, and if it works he could win tight races in battleground states.

I’ve been thinking about this since David Hogg, the Parkland survivor turned gun safety activist, wrote the warning below. His words sorted out my confusion about Trump campaign strategy bypassing outreach to swing voters.

Trump is counting on appeals to what political experts call “low propensity” and “low information” voters to swarm the vote.

Bragg identifies a big part of that strategy here:

David Hogg
@davidhogg111
I hope I’m wrong but if we lose in November I think the main reason why will be the number of young men of all races that are no longer Democrats. There’s been a taboo about talking about this because we understandably are hesitant to make men a main point of conversation (given we have been for thousands of years) but we have a real problem to deal with. At this point with 60 days to go there isn’t much we can do to recover it other than turning out more young women and trying to slow the departure of young men. I think a lot of this is caused by Covid and the epidemic of male loneliness in this country and the ensuing commodification through social media of misogyny. Long-term, we have a lot of work to do to provide positive examples of what actual masculinity looks like that is not defined by putting down women or other people, but by lifting others up and being a true leader.
Sep 6, 2024

Whether it is kicking with renegade pod-casters, embracing Kid Rock and Hulk Hogan, or tapping into anti-feminist anger, the Trump campaign is going after disaffected men of all ages with a vengeance. I can even see a connection in Trump’s attack on Taylor Swift, and his newfound fondness for vaping and cryptocurrency.

While I agree with Hogg there isn’t much that can be done in the short term about this troubling gender gap, other than turning out more women and slowing down the departure of men, it is encouraging to see the Harris campaign understands the problem. These two ads seem designed to win back some men.

Last night on YouTube, Oprah Winfrey hosted an innovative digital town hall with Kamala Harris and state-of-the-art production values.

Variety: Harris fielded questions from a studio audience in Farmington Hills, Mich., in a format that echoed “The Oprah Winfrey Show.”

On the futility of “life of the mother” exceptions.

Highly rated poll* shows all-important Pennsylvania leaning toward Harris.

USA Today/Suffolk University just released 3 polls from Pennsylvania that each paints a similar picture:

—Statewide: Harris up 49% to 46%

—just bellwhether Erie County: Harris up 48% to 44%. (Erie went for Biden by 1% in 2020.)

—just BW Northampton County: Harris up 50% to 45% (Also went for Biden by 1% in 2020.)

Best news is Harris also enjoys higher personal popularity among likely Pennsylvania voters, with 49% having a favorable opinion of the vice president, compared with 47% with an unfavorable opinion. Forty-three percent of Pennsylvania’s likely voters said they had a favorable opinion of Trump, while 54% had an unfavorable opinion.

*Suffolk polls are in top ten of 282 ranked by 538 for accuracy and transparency.

It could be Trump’s verbal shot at a singer yesterday that ultimately affects the presidential campaign more than a thwarted assassination. Before the golf course incident that’s what was upsetting his own supporters on Sunday.

Influential Republican Ari Fleischer, a former White House press secretary and longtime Trump defender, was disgusted: “I hate this message. It’s pointless. Trump isn’t running against a singer. He is running against a San Fran dangerous liberal. He should keep his sights on the target.”

Similar responses showed up in the comments section of Trump’s Truth Social account: