The week after taking office in 2017, Donald Trump announced his administration’s signature policy on the administrative state—the constellation of agencies, institutions, and procedures that Congress has created to help the president implement the laws it passes—when he signed Executive Order 13771. The directive purported to create a “regulatory budget” scheme that prohibited agencies from issuing a new rule unless they first repealed two existing rules and ensured that the resulting cost savings offset any costs the new rule might impose.
The effort failed. While federal agencies reduced their regulatory output during the Trump administration, they made little lasting progress in repealing existing rules. The Administrative Procedure Act, which governs much of how the administrative state operates, makes it hard to do so. Most of the Trump administration’s repeal attempts were met with rejection by federal courts for failing to abide by basic procedural requirements.
Still, Executive Order 13771 perfectly encapsulated conservative thinking about regulatory policy at the time. The goal was to bring about the “deconstruction of the administrative state,” as former Trump advisor Steve Bannon famously put it. This view was in keeping with decades of conservative hostility for this arm of government, which the right has long tarred as an economic and constitutional disaster.
But that was then. In the years since, the conservative movement has coalesced around a very different way of thinking about the administrative state—one that sees it as a vehicle for advancing the conservative movement’s agenda, particularly on social issues, and thus embraces policy changes that would strengthen many aspects of its governing apparatus. There’s still plenty of room for deconstruction in this vision, particularly when it comes to issues like worker rights and environmental protection. Indeed, the Supreme Court’s conservatives demonstrated their continued commitment to the deconstruction project with their decision last week striking down the four-decade-old Chevron deference doctrine—a move that will make it easier for conservative federal judges to strike down rules they oppose on ideological grounds. But these goals are now presented alongside calls for things like enhanced agency enforcement capacity and strategies for evading congressional oversight—priorities that would have been unthinkable for a conservative regulatory agenda just a few years ago.
The best example of this shift is Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation–led “presidential transition” attack plan that would guide a second Trump administration should he win this November. The effort was spearheaded by Heritage president Kevin Roberts in 2022; a 920-page document called Mandate for Leadership, published in April last year, sets out a comprehensive blueprint in technocratic detail. The product of a broad coalition of ultra-right-wing think tanks and advocacy organizations, the plan has contributions from the Center for Renewing America (an organization committed to promoting Christian nationalism), Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America (a prominent group fighting reproductive rights), and FreedomWorks (the Koch-founded organization responsible for mainstreaming the Tea Party agenda, which has since dissolved but nevertheless helped lay the foundation for the conservative movement’s evolution in thinking on matters of regulatory policy). It covers nearly every policy issue you can think of, from defense budgets to bank regulation to highway construction. (For his part, Bannon has expressed general support for the initiative, but it is unclear whether he appreciates—or even cares about—the shift it represents.)
Project 2025 is candid about its ultimate goal: to reprogram the U.S. administrative state to support and sustain archconservative rule for decades to come. The distinguishing features of this regime would include a far more politicized bureaucracy, immunity against meaningful public or congressional oversight, abusive deployment of agency enforcement capabilities as a tool of political retribution, and aggressive manipulation of federal program implementation in the image of Christian nationalism, white supremacy, and economic inequality.
[…]
Mandate for Leadership elsewhere calls for dismantling the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) lifesaving weather forecasting capabilities and outsourcing them to private companies. Such a move could exacerbate economic and racial inequity if the private company were to put those forecasts—which are now freely available to everyone—behind a paywall that might be unaffordable for many families. More ominously still, a company responding to profit incentives might create what amounts to a two-tier forecasting system, with more accurate forecasts available only for wealthier parts of the country. Low-quality forecasts in poorer areas would leave residents unable to plan for the kind of extreme weather conditions that are becoming more prevalent with climate change, putting their lives and property at risk of unnecessary harm.
[…]
The genius of the administrative state’s design was that it would provide a permanent forum in which public input and professional expertise could be leveraged to solve the people’s problems in ways that elected officials would, or could, not. Scholars of U.S. democracy have long recognized its potential to serve as a platform for building and sustaining true, durable public power. At its best, they argue, it can provide ordinary citizens with a locus of countervailing power in the political marketplace. It’s clear, then, why the modern conservative movement has come to see it as such a threat.
And that is the real import of Project 2025: it seeks to corrupt the administrative state by transforming it from a dynamic base of democratic power into a fierce weapon of social and economic conservatism. What will happen if it succeeds? Once the damage has been done, the task of sustaining minority rule for decades to come would be much easier for the conservative movement. Degrading the institutions of Congress and the federal judiciary were important first steps toward rebuilding the United States in line with its vision of Christian nationalist principles, white supremacy, and economic inequality. Seizing control of the administrative state would be the real prize.
The Nation’s Justice Correspondent Elie Mystal joins Melissa Murray, in for Ali Velshi, to discuss his new article on the dangers of Project 2025, the right-wing blueprint for a second Trump term that threatens to wreak havoc on the Department of Justice, consolidate federal power, and ultimately “take over the legal structures of our nation.” Mystal also describes why the discussion surrounding Trump’s potential pick for Attorney General is so concerning, including floating names like Utah Sen. Mike Lee, Trump White House veteran Stephen Miller, and Ken Paxton.
why is the debate the only thing the talking heads want to talk about when even their heads are on the project 2025 chopping block?
Ha, Pat, you are the Rooster
This is not media driven. Democratic electeds are angry. “Top Democratic lawmakers tell us they’re madder — and more deeply concerned — about President Biden’s denial and deflection about his bad debate than about the halting performance itself” — Axios Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen
“Some lawmakers want Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to privately push Biden to step aside. These lawmakers argue the president could bring down their chances of holding the Senate or flipping the House if he loses big in November.”
“In private, lawmakers are sharing stories of Biden’s mental and physical decline. They’re alarmed that it’s mostly people related to Biden, or on his payroll, who’re being consulted about his capacity — and his possible impact on the entire party and nation. They’re certain the Biden family doesn’t want him facing skeptics, even if they are friends. “
Newsweek: Kamala Harris’ Chances of Becoming President Soar With Bookmakers
On Tuesday, the odds on Harris winning in November were 16/1 (5.9 percent) with Bet 365 and William Hill, but these had improved substantially to 7/1 (12.5 percent) and 9/1 (10 percent) by 3 a.m. ET on Wednesday, according to betting amalgamation website Oddschecker. Over the same period, Harris’ odds of victory increased from 20/1 (4.8 percent) to 8/1 (11.1 percent), according to Sky Bet, another prominent bookie.
I just can’t understand why Biden isn’t flooding the zone with unscripted appearances and interviews to prove that his debate meltdown was just an “episode, not a condition” in Pelosi’s words. “A condition” is now a rebuttable presumption, soon to be an obvious conclusion.
And what’s up with Biden not talking to leaders like Schumer, Jeffries, Pelosi, Clyburn? Or leading Dem governors? Are his aides and family afraid they’ll tell him things they don’t want him to hear?
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker hasn’t spoken to President Biden since the debate. “When you come off a bad debate, you need to remind people why you’re the right guy to elect. I’d like to see more. There’s no doubt about it.”
Yeah, Kamala, California woman of color—she’s a shoo-in.
Jasmine Crockett
If Dems found half as much energy to attack MAGA, the real threat, then we’d be good. For all the geniuses out there who think someone else would be better, 1) explain to me who it is, 2) how they get on the ballot in all 50 states, 3) how they get the money and apparatus together to get this done in 4 months (the over 100 million Biden has on hand doesn’t transfer) 4) how we explain that a random person has been selected… subverting the votes that were casts, because of bad polls. Dems spend all their time seeking perfection, while Republicans focus on their disastrous agenda & could care less so long as they rig the system in their favor! USE YOUR ENERGY ADDRESSING PROJECT 2025 & the fact that this Supreme Court has laid the foundation to finalize the full destruction of our democracy!
Biden could stop this today with a real press conference.
Horse race shifts somewhat in Trump’s favor since the debate, giving him a 50-48% edge over Biden nationally and 51-48% in battleground states, but all within the margin of error, per new CBS poll.
it takes a lot of chutzpah to go with an unknown quantity over a proven winner- if it’s the right play, great, if not, i call top bunk in the camps
i wonder which battleground states have abortion referendums 🤔
will look up later if no one else does
…actually just going to cryogenically freeze myself until the first Wed. in Nov. Leave the heater off if convicted-guy wins 👋
Bink, abortion-rights on the ballot in:
Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Nevada, New York and South Dakota
Likely to get on the ballot in:
Arizona, Arkansas, Missouri, Montana and Nebraska
craig, as I remember Mike Allan was a bit on the other side in other elections.
as for demanding that Joe withdraw because he’s unfit, then your setting him up for having to step down from the presidency now. house gopers are already salivating over 25th amendment action. god help us if the GOPer house gets a chance to deny prez Kamala’s choice of a new V.P if he does step down before the election.
like rep crockett said:
If Dems found half as much energy to attack MAGA, the real threat, then we’d be good. For all the geniuses out there who think someone else would be better, 1) explain to me who it is, 2) how they get on the ballot in all 50 states, 3) how they get the money and apparatus together to get this done in 4 months (the over 100 million Biden has on hand doesn’t transfer) 4) how we explain that a random person has been selected… subverting the votes that were casts, because of bad polls…..
Sturg, Mrs. P and I have our differences politically – she’s nominally a Democrat, hates Trump and the MAGATS, and grew up in an Italian household in Cleveland with a fairly straightforward racist father. I’m a dyed in the wool Democrat who grew up apolitically in Birmingham with typically racist parents and had fairly typical white southern attitude about race until the Kluckers blew up the church and killed little girls and Bull Connor turned firehoses and dogs on black protesters. That’s when my wool got dyed. Anyway, I’m sure you can relate. Well, we were talking about the long knives being out this morning on MSNBC, calling for Biden to step aside, and Mrs. P is on the fence about that but said that they aren’t making any real suggestions for someone at the top of the ticket if he does decide not to run. I told her that they are really thinking Newsome or Harris. She said without hesitating – Harris isn’t electable. I pointed out that she polls well against Trump among independents – better than Joe in the latest go rounds. She said, maybe, but she’s not electable. I’m sure in the back of her mind she was thinking something along the lines of California mixed-race woman is too long a shot.
Cock-a-doodle-do!
As we say, ‘da Nile ain’t just a river in Egypt.
Don’t tell me. I don’t want to know.
The 4 author Times piece about the growing frequency of Joe’s lapses – they make a passing reference to Dumbass’ similar decline and constant lies, but just passing. It’s a mixed bag piece, but try as they might, they talk almost as much about his sharpness and forcefulness as they do his lapses. Unusual in a hit piece.
After this weekend, Joe probably needs to take a few days off. Sounds like he’s been burning the candle at both ends and need to put out the flames and cool down a bit. Hey, he may be no spring chicken but he’s also not the lying and bumbling fool who heads the MAGATs.
Why did he seem fine shortly after the debate, mingling with people? Many of us have gotten our second wind after a concert at the Waffle House.
Craig – If those Dems would’ve circled the wagons instead of leaking their panic into the wider world, we would not still be talking about this.
You mean if Dems were not just aching to piss in the well. Nothing new, they do it every time they’re afforded the opportunity.
Clyburn right now on CNN, still has not heard from Biden. Asked whether he is concerned about Biden’s condition: “I saw what I saw Thursday night.”
Once again, Biden can stop this right now by walking over to the press room and taking all questions. If he cannot handle that, well there’s our answer to Pelosi’s question: “episode or condition”.
Maybe Jim should talk to Biden before he goes on CNN. You know, so he might have something to add.
maybe Mr Biden and his team have a plan which doesn’t include us armchair generals.
Or if not, maybe he’s just going to quit.
These things must be done delicately.
today’s meme…
maybe Mr Biden and his team have a plan which doesn’t include us armchair generals.
Bet on it.
Democrats, faced with adversity, are doing what they do best: Panicking and looking weak. A group of about two dozen House Democrats are planning to call on Biden to drop out. Yes, when danger rears its ugly head, they bravely turned their tails and fled. Extra bonus irony: A lot of these people are the same ones who think Democrats should be more like Republicans. Quick, how many GOP House members are slagging Trump for his sloppy debate performance?
This article does a good job of summing up the reasons Biden should drop out. They’re really no more compelling than they ever were, but they’re fair points. But it bears repeating: The people slagging the Democratic candidate, selected by Democratic voters, are Democrats. Now do you see why reporters insist they’re always in disarray? Besides, while that writer hand-waves the fact, none polls any better than Biden. But you know what the takeaway is for people who ignore politics? Even the Democrats don’t like their candidate, and, faced with adversity, Democrats panic. It’s not a look that inspires confidence in Democrats among voters.
I have no takeaway from the debates that changes my opinion of them, which is summed up nicely by this former editor of the Philadelphia Inquirer’s editorial pages: They have nothing to do with the job they’re applying for. If you’re looking for reasons politics has turned into empty theater, look no further.
Over in France, centrists and leftists are cooperating to fight the Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally. Several hundred candidates who finished third in the first round of voting have agreed to drop out so as not to split the anti-fascist vote
Biden Told Ally That He Is Weighing Whether to Continue in the Race
New York Times: President Biden told a key ally his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job. It’s the first public indication that Biden is seriously considering whether he can recover after the debate.
Amendment XXV stipulates that the vice president becomes president of the U.S. should the incumbent president die, or resign the office, or has been deposed through impeachment; establishes how a vacancy in the office of the vice president can be filled and provides for the transfer of presidential powers and duties to the vice president, either on the president’s initiative or the initiative of the vice president and the majority of the cabinet. In either case of presidential absence, the vice president becomes the acting president until the incumbent president’s return to office.
[…]
Section 2 provides a mechanism for filling a vacancy in the vice presidency. Before the Twenty-fifth Amendment, a vice presidential vacancy continued until a new vice president took office at the start of the next presidential term; the vice presidency had become vacant several times due to death, resignation, or succession to the presidency, and these vacancies had often lasted several years
Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.
… what should happen when a vice-presidential vacancy arises? The original Constitution did not provide for filling such a vacancy. Prior to the adoption of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, one Vice President resigned, seven died in office, and eight took over for Presidents who died in office: all in all, the vice presidency was unoccupied more than 20 percent of the time. This was less of a problem when the office was held in low regard, which it mostly was until the mid-twentieth century. But as the vice presidency began to grow into its modern form—a sort of deputy presidency—it became more worrisome for the office to be vacant. These worries were sharpened by Congress’s design of the 1947 Presidential Succession Act, which places the Speaker of the House and the President Pro Tempore of the Senate immediately behind the Vice President in line for the presidency, even when they do not belong to the President’s political party.
[…]
In response to the second question, regarding vice-presidential vacancies, Section 2 of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment requires the President to nominate a replacement Vice President when that office becomes vacant, subject to confirmation by a majority of both the House and Senate. In 1973, Gerald Ford became Vice President through Section 2 after Vice President Spiro Agnew resigned. When Ford took over the presidency the following year, he promptly invoked Section 2 to nominate Nelson Rockefeller to fill the resulting vice-presidential vacancy.
so if joe decides to step down, not just withdraw from the race, what are the odds that a majority of the house and senate will okay Kamala’s choice of veep? and if the office is empty from now to jan 1025, guess who’ll argue all the way to supremes that he gets to slide in v.p. place in the meantime….. little maga mikey
again it’s “think again” time for getting what the mob seems to be clamoring for: if joe withdraws from the race due to stated mental health concerns, he’ll be prime meat for house GOPers to demand his stepping down from the presidency too.
Section 4 addresses the dramatic case of a President who may be unable to fulfill his constitutional role but who cannot or will not step aside. It provides both a decision-maker and a procedure. The initial deciding group is the Vice President and a majority of either the Cabinet or some other body that Congress may designate (though Congress has never done so). If this group declares a President “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office,” the Vice President immediately becomes Acting President. If and when the President pronounces himself able, the deciding group has four days to disagree. If it does not, the President retakes his powers. But if it does, the Vice President keeps control while Congress quickly meets and makes a decision. The voting rule in these contested cases favors the President; the Vice President continues acting as President only if two-thirds majorities of both chambers agree that the President is unable to serve.
NOTE in that process: or some other body that Congress may designate
Aliens, we have a problem: the Colorado monolith is no more.
WH announces President taped radio interviews airing in the morning in Wisconsin and Philadelphia.
Ivy – You can make one. Buff up some stainless steel, bend it into a tall shape. Weight it down with rebar and cement, plant it on some almost remote location. Sit back and wait a day for it to settle in, then make calls, on a burner phone, to media about a mysterious shiny thing in the middle of no where.
Ta da
Blue Bronc, thanks but no thanks. Our HOA would get on our case. 🛸👽
Graves said the monolith has been good for business at the Howling Cow Cafe, which the Graveses own and is adjacent to the hill on which the monolith was erected. But she said the popularity of the reflective monolith has caused damage to the hill on which it sits by trespassers who have left trash.
“Man Behind Project 2025 Just Said the Quiet Part Out Loud”
“We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be,” Roberts said.
“He also opined that the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling granting presidents immunity for official acts is “vital,” mentioning Alexander Hamilton’s view of the importance of a “vigorous executive.”
This election is about Democracy v Tyranny.
I’m no expert on Presidential succession, but the 25th Amendment applies to succession due to Presidential incapacity, and the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, as amended, seems to me to only apply to Speaker, President pro temp, etc., etc. in the event that ALL of the offices above a replacement for president under the Act are vacant. Unless I’m missing something, the PSA doesn’t give MAGA Mikey any claim to the VP position in the event that (a) Kamala fills the vacant President’s office and (b) Mikey and his band of asshats refuses to approve Kamala’s nominee to fill the vacant VP office. Not sure whether there is something from the Continuity of Government Commission that would provide for a game of such governmental hopscotch, and it’s closing in on the end of the day before a 4 day weekend and I don’t give enough of a shit about it to do any research.
i think patd’s just trying to scare us
…already scared enough, patd, thanks! 😨
bink, glad to be of service… might as well follow the crowd over the cliff.
other helpful messages to share:
if you can keep your head when everybody round you is losing theirs, maybe you don’t understand the situation.
BTW, isn’t there always a doc that travels with presidents, a medic always at hand? why not ask him/her?
joe might make some headway if he offers to take and have reported a mental acuity assessment by a highly-respected doc/s of gerontology on the condition the magaT king takes and shares the same by the same expert. might help to quell the angst or provide grounds for dumping both if they both fail.
pogo, nowadays it doesn’t really matter what the constitution or the succession act says, maga mikey and cult will take their cause to the supremes.
you wanna guess what their decision will be?
it really is time to flip the script and demand that trump withdraw
yours for ours, GOP, you first
…cuz your guy is a convict
I’m proud to support the best presidential administration of my lifetime. American democracy depends on making sure we defeat my fascist uncle and his enablers in November. #WeBackBidenHarris
Rosenblatt phd
President Biden and VP Harris know that a thriving democracy means protecting the right to vote for all citizens. They’ll fight against voter suppression tactics used by Trump and MAGA Republicans, ensuring every voice is heard in our democracy. #WeBackBidenHarris
A 3-point move toward Trump in a new Times/Siena poll is not a fundamental change in the race, but it is worrisome.
Biden is doing a medal awards ceremony in 15 minutes, so he’s at the White House. The press room isn’t far away. Taking questions without incident for an hour ends this.
today’s 2nd meme…
Clyburn says he would support ‘mini-primary’ ahead of DNC if Biden steps aside https://politi.co/3RSqapc
The Atlantic’s Ron Brownstein: “I am now aware of post debate Democratic (or interest group) polls that have Biden down 6-7 in each of MI/PA/WI, states he likely needs to sweep to win.”
If you got the time, we got the ink
Democrats begin to consider Harris at the top of their ticket
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is signaling to members that Harris would be the best option to lead the ticket if Biden chooses to step aside
I missed the big party by a couple of months. The songwriters, being mostly poor, lived in big houses in west end where they all split the rent and each were lucky to have a room. Their economy was measured in 6-packs and cigarettes. Usually when one of them scored a hit it was followed by a large party. Don’s party after Rogers’ version of “The Gambler” was legendary. He pulled in to his old place in a stretch limo with a trunk crammed full of beer and they said the party lasted 2 or 3 days.
If a succession to Harris plan is underway they’ve got at least a week’s worth of legal stuff to figure out, such as how to transfer the money and infrastructure to Kamala. Also got to make sure there aren’t State ballot issues. They have to choose their nominee by August 7th deadline to get on Ohio’s ballot. DNC has scheduled a pre-convention zoom call with all 3,000+ delegates to nominate, but if there are multiple candidates and multiple ballots that seems like a mess.
Sturge, Don seems like a really good guy.
if i’m reading the tea leaves right, i’d say we are going to have the first female President in a couple of weeks
Once again, the MSM ignored Project 2025, after threat of bloodshed was made. WTF?
NYT: Biden Tells Allies He Knows He Has Only Days to Salvage Candidacy
According to two allies who have spoken with him, Mr. Biden has emphasized that he is still deeply committed to the fight for re-election but understands that his viability as a candidate is on the line.
When I was in losing campaigns we called it “easing the bitch into dry dock”. The candidate is always the last to give up. Takes time and lots of last-resort comeback fantasies before they get there.
“She’s so fucking bad”
Trump Caught on Video Claiming “Broken-Down” Biden Has Quit: “It’s Kamala”
BIG change to ABC’s Biden interview rollout plan: It “will air in its entirety as a primetime special, Friday, July 5, at 8:00 p.m. ET/PT on ABC.” Additionally, “a transcript of the unedited interview will be made available the same day.”
“She’s so fucking bad”
you’re fucking worse
Harris/Whitmer 2024
We will have all the answers we need in the days to come. Happy Fourth, everyone. – Mika Brzezinski
Orange Adolf is mentally unstable. Those who continue to support him are monsters. That goes for the media, too. I cannot fathom why else members of the media wouldn’t do their effing jobs.
“Tomorrow is the Fourth of July, another reminder of why it is so important to know our history, not to erase our history,” Mr. Biden said. “To remember the sacred cause of American democracy and not make up a lost cause to justify the evil of slavery. To remember the nation that George and Philip fought for and died for: the United States of America.”
“That’s who we are,” he added.
Inside Project 2025 – Boston Review
https://x.com/BidensWins/status/1806673300849926309.
Gavin Newsom, one defense of biden
more thoughts on project 2025:
What is Project 2025 And Why Is It Alarming? – Democracy Docket
Project 2025 would be a disaster for the environment – Chicago Sun-Times (suntimes.com)
Project 2025: The Trump presidency wish list, explained (bbc.com)
A guide to Project 2025, the extreme right-wing agenda for the next Republican administration | Media Matters for America
The Nation’s Justice Correspondent Elie Mystal joins Melissa Murray, in for Ali Velshi, to discuss his new article on the dangers of Project 2025, the right-wing blueprint for a second Trump term that threatens to wreak havoc on the Department of Justice, consolidate federal power, and ultimately “take over the legal structures of our nation.” Mystal also describes why the discussion surrounding Trump’s potential pick for Attorney General is so concerning, including floating names like Utah Sen. Mike Lee, Trump White House veteran Stephen Miller, and Ken Paxton.
why is the debate the only thing the talking heads want to talk about when even their heads are on the project 2025 chopping block?
Ha, Pat, you are the Rooster
This is not media driven. Democratic electeds are angry. “Top Democratic lawmakers tell us they’re madder — and more deeply concerned — about President Biden’s denial and deflection about his bad debate than about the halting performance itself” — Axios Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen
“Some lawmakers want Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to privately push Biden to step aside. These lawmakers argue the president could bring down their chances of holding the Senate or flipping the House if he loses big in November.”
“In private, lawmakers are sharing stories of Biden’s mental and physical decline. They’re alarmed that it’s mostly people related to Biden, or on his payroll, who’re being consulted about his capacity — and his possible impact on the entire party and nation. They’re certain the Biden family doesn’t want him facing skeptics, even if they are friends. “
Newsweek: Kamala Harris’ Chances of Becoming President Soar With Bookmakers
On Tuesday, the odds on Harris winning in November were 16/1 (5.9 percent) with Bet 365 and William Hill, but these had improved substantially to 7/1 (12.5 percent) and 9/1 (10 percent) by 3 a.m. ET on Wednesday, according to betting amalgamation website Oddschecker. Over the same period, Harris’ odds of victory increased from 20/1 (4.8 percent) to 8/1 (11.1 percent), according to Sky Bet, another prominent bookie.
I just can’t understand why Biden isn’t flooding the zone with unscripted appearances and interviews to prove that his debate meltdown was just an “episode, not a condition” in Pelosi’s words. “A condition” is now a rebuttable presumption, soon to be an obvious conclusion.
And what’s up with Biden not talking to leaders like Schumer, Jeffries, Pelosi, Clyburn? Or leading Dem governors? Are his aides and family afraid they’ll tell him things they don’t want him to hear?
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker hasn’t spoken to President Biden since the debate. “When you come off a bad debate, you need to remind people why you’re the right guy to elect. I’d like to see more. There’s no doubt about it.”
Yeah, Kamala, California woman of color—she’s a shoo-in.
Jasmine Crockett
If Dems found half as much energy to attack MAGA, the real threat, then we’d be good. For all the geniuses out there who think someone else would be better, 1) explain to me who it is, 2) how they get on the ballot in all 50 states, 3) how they get the money and apparatus together to get this done in 4 months (the over 100 million Biden has on hand doesn’t transfer) 4) how we explain that a random person has been selected… subverting the votes that were casts, because of bad polls. Dems spend all their time seeking perfection, while Republicans focus on their disastrous agenda & could care less so long as they rig the system in their favor! USE YOUR ENERGY ADDRESSING PROJECT 2025 & the fact that this Supreme Court has laid the foundation to finalize the full destruction of our democracy!
Biden could stop this today with a real press conference.
Horse race shifts somewhat in Trump’s favor since the debate, giving him a 50-48% edge over Biden nationally and 51-48% in battleground states, but all within the margin of error, per new CBS poll.
it takes a lot of chutzpah to go with an unknown quantity over a proven winner- if it’s the right play, great, if not, i call top bunk in the camps
i wonder which battleground states have abortion referendums 🤔
will look up later if no one else does
…actually just going to cryogenically freeze myself until the first Wed. in Nov. Leave the heater off if convicted-guy wins 👋
Bink, abortion-rights on the ballot in:
Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Nevada, New York and South Dakota
Likely to get on the ballot in:
Arizona, Arkansas, Missouri, Montana and Nebraska
craig, as I remember Mike Allan was a bit on the other side in other elections.
as for demanding that Joe withdraw because he’s unfit, then your setting him up for having to step down from the presidency now. house gopers are already salivating over 25th amendment action. god help us if the GOPer house gets a chance to deny prez Kamala’s choice of a new V.P if he does step down before the election.
like rep crockett said:
Sturg, Mrs. P and I have our differences politically – she’s nominally a Democrat, hates Trump and the MAGATS, and grew up in an Italian household in Cleveland with a fairly straightforward racist father. I’m a dyed in the wool Democrat who grew up apolitically in Birmingham with typically racist parents and had fairly typical white southern attitude about race until the Kluckers blew up the church and killed little girls and Bull Connor turned firehoses and dogs on black protesters. That’s when my wool got dyed. Anyway, I’m sure you can relate. Well, we were talking about the long knives being out this morning on MSNBC, calling for Biden to step aside, and Mrs. P is on the fence about that but said that they aren’t making any real suggestions for someone at the top of the ticket if he does decide not to run. I told her that they are really thinking Newsome or Harris. She said without hesitating – Harris isn’t electable. I pointed out that she polls well against Trump among independents – better than Joe in the latest go rounds. She said, maybe, but she’s not electable. I’m sure in the back of her mind she was thinking something along the lines of California mixed-race woman is too long a shot.
Cock-a-doodle-do!
As we say, ‘da Nile ain’t just a river in Egypt.
Don’t tell me. I don’t want to know.
The 4 author Times piece about the growing frequency of Joe’s lapses – they make a passing reference to Dumbass’ similar decline and constant lies, but just passing. It’s a mixed bag piece, but try as they might, they talk almost as much about his sharpness and forcefulness as they do his lapses. Unusual in a hit piece.
After this weekend, Joe probably needs to take a few days off. Sounds like he’s been burning the candle at both ends and need to put out the flames and cool down a bit. Hey, he may be no spring chicken but he’s also not the lying and bumbling fool who heads the MAGATs.
Why did he seem fine shortly after the debate, mingling with people? Many of us have gotten our second wind after a concert at the Waffle House.
Craig – If those Dems would’ve circled the wagons instead of leaking their panic into the wider world, we would not still be talking about this.
You mean if Dems were not just aching to piss in the well. Nothing new, they do it every time they’re afforded the opportunity.
Clyburn right now on CNN, still has not heard from Biden. Asked whether he is concerned about Biden’s condition: “I saw what I saw Thursday night.”
Once again, Biden can stop this right now by walking over to the press room and taking all questions. If he cannot handle that, well there’s our answer to Pelosi’s question: “episode or condition”.
Maybe Jim should talk to Biden before he goes on CNN. You know, so he might have something to add.
maybe Mr Biden and his team have a plan which doesn’t include us armchair generals.
Or if not, maybe he’s just going to quit.
These things must be done delicately.
today’s meme…
Bet on it.
https://delawareliberal.net/2024/07/03/dk-open-thread-wednesday-july-3-2024/#comments
Biden Told Ally That He Is Weighing Whether to Continue in the Race
New York Times: President Biden told a key ally his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job. It’s the first public indication that Biden is seriously considering whether he can recover after the debate.
FYI from wiki:
he Twenty-fifth Amendment (Amendment XXV) to the United States Constitution deals with presidential succession and disability.
Amendment XXV stipulates that the vice president becomes president of the U.S. should the incumbent president die, or resign the office, or has been deposed through impeachment; establishes how a vacancy in the office of the vice president can be filled and provides for the transfer of presidential powers and duties to the vice president, either on the president’s initiative or the initiative of the vice president and the majority of the cabinet. In either case of presidential absence, the vice president becomes the acting president until the incumbent president’s return to office.
[…]
Section 2 provides a mechanism for filling a vacancy in the vice presidency. Before the Twenty-fifth Amendment, a vice presidential vacancy continued until a new vice president took office at the start of the next presidential term; the vice presidency had become vacant several times due to death, resignation, or succession to the presidency, and these vacancies had often lasted several years
U.S. Constitution – Twenty-Fifth Amendment | Resources | Constitution Annotated | Congress.gov | Library of Congress
Interpretation: The Twenty-Fifth Amendment | Constitution Center
so if joe decides to step down, not just withdraw from the race, what are the odds that a majority of the house and senate will okay Kamala’s choice of veep? and if the office is empty from now to jan 1025, guess who’ll argue all the way to supremes that he gets to slide in v.p. place in the meantime….. little maga mikey
again it’s “think again” time for getting what the mob seems to be clamoring for: if joe withdraws from the race due to stated mental health concerns, he’ll be prime meat for house GOPers to demand his stepping down from the presidency too.
from the https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/amendments/amendment-xxv/interpretations/159 link:
NOTE in that process: or some other body that Congress may designate
https://www.coloradoan.com/story/news/2024/07/03/colorado-monolith-removed-before-july-4th-weekend/74287626007/?
WH announces President taped radio interviews airing in the morning in Wisconsin and Philadelphia.
Ivy – You can make one. Buff up some stainless steel, bend it into a tall shape. Weight it down with rebar and cement, plant it on some almost remote location. Sit back and wait a day for it to settle in, then make calls, on a burner phone, to media about a mysterious shiny thing in the middle of no where.
Ta da
Blue Bronc, thanks but no thanks. Our HOA would get on our case. 🛸👽
Honestly, what the —— is a “key ally”? 🙄
https://www.thedailybeast.com/kevin-roberts-man-behind-project-2025-just-said-the-quiet-part-out-loud
“Man Behind Project 2025 Just Said the Quiet Part Out Loud”
“We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be,” Roberts said.
“He also opined that the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling granting presidents immunity for official acts is “vital,” mentioning Alexander Hamilton’s view of the importance of a “vigorous executive.”
This election is about Democracy v Tyranny.
I’m no expert on Presidential succession, but the 25th Amendment applies to succession due to Presidential incapacity, and the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, as amended, seems to me to only apply to Speaker, President pro temp, etc., etc. in the event that ALL of the offices above a replacement for president under the Act are vacant. Unless I’m missing something, the PSA doesn’t give MAGA Mikey any claim to the VP position in the event that (a) Kamala fills the vacant President’s office and (b) Mikey and his band of asshats refuses to approve Kamala’s nominee to fill the vacant VP office. Not sure whether there is something from the Continuity of Government Commission that would provide for a game of such governmental hopscotch, and it’s closing in on the end of the day before a 4 day weekend and I don’t give enough of a shit about it to do any research.
i think patd’s just trying to scare us
…already scared enough, patd, thanks! 😨
bink, glad to be of service… might as well follow the crowd over the cliff.
other helpful messages to share:
if you can keep your head when everybody round you is losing theirs, maybe you don’t understand the situation.
BTW, isn’t there always a doc that travels with presidents, a medic always at hand? why not ask him/her?
joe might make some headway if he offers to take and have reported a mental acuity assessment by a highly-respected doc/s of gerontology on the condition the magaT king takes and shares the same by the same expert. might help to quell the angst or provide grounds for dumping both if they both fail.
pogo, nowadays it doesn’t really matter what the constitution or the succession act says, maga mikey and cult will take their cause to the supremes.
you wanna guess what their decision will be?
it really is time to flip the script and demand that trump withdraw
yours for ours, GOP, you first
…cuz your guy is a convict
Mary Trump
16m
I’m proud to support the best presidential administration of my lifetime. American democracy depends on making sure we defeat my fascist uncle and his enablers in November. #WeBackBidenHarris
Rosenblatt phd
President Biden and VP Harris know that a thriving democracy means protecting the right to vote for all citizens. They’ll fight against voter suppression tactics used by Trump and MAGA Republicans, ensuring every voice is heard in our democracy. #WeBackBidenHarris
A 3-point move toward Trump in a new Times/Siena poll is not a fundamental change in the race, but it is worrisome.
Biden is doing a medal awards ceremony in 15 minutes, so he’s at the White House. The press room isn’t far away. Taking questions without incident for an hour ends this.
today’s 2nd meme…
Clyburn says he would support ‘mini-primary’ ahead of DNC if Biden steps aside https://politi.co/3RSqapc
The Atlantic’s Ron Brownstein: “I am now aware of post debate Democratic (or interest group) polls that have Biden down 6-7 in each of MI/PA/WI, states he likely needs to sweep to win.”
If you got the time, we got the ink
Democrats begin to consider Harris at the top of their ticket
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is signaling to members that Harris would be the best option to lead the ticket if Biden chooses to step aside
Free link … https://wapo.st/4bt5LOA
I missed the big party by a couple of months. The songwriters, being mostly poor, lived in big houses in west end where they all split the rent and each were lucky to have a room. Their economy was measured in 6-packs and cigarettes. Usually when one of them scored a hit it was followed by a large party. Don’s party after Rogers’ version of “The Gambler” was legendary. He pulled in to his old place in a stretch limo with a trunk crammed full of beer and they said the party lasted 2 or 3 days.
If a succession to Harris plan is underway they’ve got at least a week’s worth of legal stuff to figure out, such as how to transfer the money and infrastructure to Kamala. Also got to make sure there aren’t State ballot issues. They have to choose their nominee by August 7th deadline to get on Ohio’s ballot. DNC has scheduled a pre-convention zoom call with all 3,000+ delegates to nominate, but if there are multiple candidates and multiple ballots that seems like a mess.
Sturge, Don seems like a really good guy.
if i’m reading the tea leaves right, i’d say we are going to have the first female President in a couple of weeks
Once again, the MSM ignored Project 2025, after threat of bloodshed was made. WTF?
NYT: Biden Tells Allies He Knows He Has Only Days to Salvage Candidacy
According to two allies who have spoken with him, Mr. Biden has emphasized that he is still deeply committed to the fight for re-election but understands that his viability as a candidate is on the line.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html?smid=em-share
When I was in losing campaigns we called it “easing the bitch into dry dock”. The candidate is always the last to give up. Takes time and lots of last-resort comeback fantasies before they get there.
“She’s so fucking bad”
Trump Caught on Video Claiming “Broken-Down” Biden Has Quit: “It’s Kamala”
— https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-caught-on-video-claiming-broken-down-joe-biden-has-quit-its-kamala?source=twitter&via=desktop
Trump on video: “I got him out”, calls Biden an “old broken-down pile of crap.”
— https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-caught-on-video-claiming-broken-down-joe-biden-has-quit-its-kamala
BIG change to ABC’s Biden interview rollout plan: It “will air in its entirety as a primetime special, Friday, July 5, at 8:00 p.m. ET/PT on ABC.” Additionally, “a transcript of the unedited interview will be made available the same day.”
“She’s so fucking bad”
you’re fucking worse
Harris/Whitmer 2024
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/03/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-election-concede/index.html
“But roughly 7 in 10 Americans (71%) doubt that Trump will concede if he loses again in November, while only 28% believe he will.”
Orange Adolf is mentally unstable. Those who continue to support him are monsters. That goes for the media, too. I cannot fathom why else members of the media wouldn’t do their effing jobs.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/medal-of-honor-biden-civil-war.html
NEW THREAD by Craig our fearless leader