First Read (NBC News): A spate of new polling shows that the initial evidence of a significant post-convention bounce for Hillary Clinton is looking like it COULD become a sturdy lead for the Democratic nominee. A new Franklin and Marshall College poll of Pennsylvania shows Clinton with an 11 point lead over Trump, 49 percent to 38 percent. A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll of Michigan voters finds a nine point lead for the former secretary of state, 41 percent to 32 percent. And a fresh WBUR/MassINC poll this morning shows Clinton opening up a 15 point lead over the GOP nominee in New Hampshire, 47 percent to 32 percent. Add that to national polls this week from NBC News|SurveyMonkey (Clinton +8), CNN/ORC (Clinton +9) and FOX News (Clinton +10).
Bottom line: Trump couldn’t have picked a worse week to have a DISASTROUS week. Clinton was already in the midst of a convention bump, and Trump exacerbated it with his series of unforced errors and unnecessary fights. The next question: How does the Trump campaign react in the next week, when even more national and state polls are likely to show a similar gap between the two candidates? — NBC News
Hillary’s bounce could be highest since Bill’s in a half century:
Interesting thing about the fox poll is that the libertarians were polling at 12 % Close meeting the debate requirement for participation..
Jack
Edit: I think this one deserves a Whooooo Hoooo!!!!!!!!!!!
Word I’ve heard from those closely following debate commission is that they might include Johnson if he’s really close (especially if, as expected, Libertarians are on the ballot in all 50) — they’re worried about public perception that they protect two-party monopoly
Clinton up 11 in PaDr. Sabato is right on the money.
By the time the debates roll around Trump will be third
William Howard Taft anyone? Incumbent placing 3rd.
If I was a Republican in one of the western states I would start encouraging my supporters to vote libertarian. Give them a reason to come and vote. Because it is starting to look like The Republicans will be turning out like it is an off year election. Not good for the down ballot ticket.
Jack
538 has Trump’s odds at 22%
Big Giant Loser
Let the goopers stay home
take back the house and senate…..ok getting a little carried away
but things are looking good
Rep Charlie Dent R Pa wht a big baby ..a little late to be complaining about the Troll
Trump May Start Dragging GOP Senate Candidates Down With Him
By Harry En
Love the Countdown Ticker. Not looking at it as a Doomsday Clock but more as the ball ready to drop on New Year’s Eve.
Obamarama needs to step up and make sure there is no fall out to Clinton from this Iran kerfuffle
Chris Cillizza hates Hillary Clinton and it is starting to be evident even Mrs. Greenspan looked askance at some of the things he said today
Looks like Clinton superpacs are pulling out of Colorado with their ad buys, calling it a win.
Jack
The implosion of the Republican Nominee makes me ask if this circumstance is unique or has it happened before in our history? Especially after the Conventions. Maybe the McGovern/Eagleton/Shriver ticket in 1972 comes closest, but that concerned a Veep Nominee, not the Top Dog.
Not that I give a crap about the Ryan-Nehlen race, but I heard Nehlen on Mrs. Greenspan’s show today. Talkabout a flaming idiot. He told Andrea what she should be asking him about. Andrea politely declined to follow his advice.
Eagleton was the 2nd spot….but who can forget I’m behind you 110%
I wonder what country will take in Trump & Family Inc after this whole mess.
Maybe he’ll bounce around like the Shah.
And a new Reality Show will plague us.
The biggest surprise to me is Ohio. I have been hearing lots of rumblings that it might go to trump. Nothing solid, but rumblings.
This article by George Will (I hate George Will, BTW) is wonderful.
Like I said, Priceless.
Edwin Edwards already did that show
I would not except a third party invitation to do the debates with the two chosen candidates…..let Clinton and Trump control the whole show…..just like the dnc and the rnc likes it. They are going to look like fools in this regard. It will be obvious that they monopolize the system…..the two party system that is.
Having said that…i would except an invitation and save their ass if they waved the rules restricting participation…. for ever….might be a good time to push back a little no? The big bad ass ds and rs will look silly if they don’t yield a little….or just let us see what is behind the curtain…..not going to look very pretty imo…..looking at these two and wondering ….why in the world are only two partys to chose from……
Happy Birthday to President Obama and Tony Bennett. Shall we have a concert in their honor?
https://youtu.be/nYnc2Qg4mF0
If the Libertarians get on the stage, Hillary won’t have a problem with Johnson, but he could make Trump look like a fool without her help. I doubt Governor Weld would have a problem with Pence, but it would be a more even match.
The key to understanding what Trump is talking about is that he is ignorant but glib. He doesn’t know anything about issues so takes clues from a questioner about what he is supposed to say (i.e. “In a Certain Way”) and if he can’t get feedback from tweeters or grocery check out stand gossip rags, he simply repeats what he heard last at least three times with an added “believe me”
Obviously, trump is having marital problems, to boot. I predict he along with half of his team, will be under investigation or indictment even if he flops. Flynn, Manacort, Page are all putie pawns. After the successful brexit vote, putie is inspired to continue to disrupt politics — especially in the US. Clinton would be doing better if not for the wikileaks. hillary hater assange has carefully led the charge to take down clinton for years. His bragging about taking down dnc debbie? putie feeds his intelligence and snowden was a gift to putie. assange mentions manning when he is the one who used her and tossed her away. pretty impressive as the clinton emails are about as caustic as facebook fights. assange also mentions libya…again, putie wants all eyes off of syria. Same chant as faux news, RT news…both the left and right of the political spectrum are fed by puitie. I believe most citizens are in the middle and that is where clinton lives. Sanders and trump…pretending primaries are rigged?…everything in politics is rigged, but to let putie run our show? His order of hacks affect only one side because of their sanctions on him. the pretense of the dishonesty tagline? a putie myth. The ends are always the most gullible.
Rigged primaries? Uneducated citizens is more like it. The repugs are probably not going to allow independents again into their primaries…look at the results. Hijacking. Same with dems and they were trying to prevent a minority takeover…hijacking. But, in the end? The US is in the middle. Sanders never had a chance…he was smarter than Johnson to stay with the big guys for the fame and glory.
The debate commission is worried about public perception?! They are a joke and have been throughout my entire lifetime. Their only apparent purpose is the literal stifling of debate.
Also, boycott the Olympics. You can’t be a progressive and support the International Organization of Crime.
bink…what about the NFL?
how low can you sink for guests I think about every trailmixer would make a more intelligent interview then corrupt and stupid former sec’y of state from Ohio Ken Blackwell. Thomas Roberts missed a big opportunity by not asking Blackwell how votes can be supressed
Ha! I’m not so easily trolled, BW.
But, now that you mention it…
Seriously, the IOC is disgusting. If they aren’t providing platforms for despots to preen for the world (while embezzling billions), they are collapsing sensitive developing economies (while destroying lives and embezzling billions).
the debate football thing is another ruse..it is not 1960. Political junkies will watch live…but many Americans will see the highlights or the DVR or the rebroadcast…you can get the debates anytime. trump continues to go with the rigged system crap. IOC? putie and his doping. NFL? wife beaters who use racist team names. Every great depression, recession allows us to slow down to smell the roses and garbage. Our institutions are corrupt and we want to crucify one woman as the embodiment of corruption…look to the accusers instead.
anyone watching either of the cable channels wouldn’t really have a clue that Hillary is even in the race. Neither one is showing her speaking at events today … It’s Trump Trump Trump with an empty podium covered in detail while waiting for him to appear.
trump is running a PR campaign…all press is good news and really free. Nothing for the long term…he thinks running for the presidency is like opening a new golf course.
Meanwhile, Barron and Melania are at home.
Barron and Melanoma are in the Witness Protection Program
Goopers are such hypocrites
and the washpo needs to do some internal examining
ayotte down 10 all of this tied to the Troll effect
Kate Snow just said Ryan faces a tough challenge – she should sue her writer and if she does it herself she should be fired for journalistic malpractice
Sweet lord, he named his kid “Barron”. Don’t worry, young man, you can move out in a few years and no one will hold your parents against you.
The trolls hair is no longer orange maybe they decided it was the dye that was making him crazy
Now he looks a sleazy circuit riding preacher
another imaginary video from the Troll
Johnson would probably be welcomed as a debate participant by Hillary. gives her someone to talk to, a fairly civilized banter on issues. if it’s just dt, how many times can you roll your eyes and stifle a snicker without causing backlash for her and sympathy for him?
wouldn’t be surprised if her team isn’t lobbying for the libertarians to be included. wonder if the league of women voters would sponsor an independently run old-fashioned boring debate which invites all who are on the ballot.
the veep debate with kaine, pence and weld might be a hoot.
like an old joke: 3 men – a catholic, an evangelical and an Episcopalian- walk into a bar. the bartender jim Lehrer asks them a question….
from cnn money:
The financial industry has donated $41 million to Clinton and only $109,000 to Trump, according to Bloomberg Businessweek. Warren doesn’t see that as Wall Street’s attempt to gain a bigger footprint in the Democratic Party.
“I don’t see it as a swing back to Democrats so much as I see it as supporting sanity. The financial-services people, as much as many of them would like to see more deregulation, are also deeply frightened by the prospect of a Trump presidency. Nuclear war is bad for business,” Warren said in an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek.
Movie tough guy clint eastwood demands NEW IMPROVED Political Correctness. In the future, actual people are not to criticize or make fun of racist assholes like trump, mel gibson, david duke, and, presumably, the all the other republicans. While he does not claim that racist-bashing hurts the poor little nazi scumbags’ feelings, the former Dirty Harry does startle with his claim that racist-bashing is somehow pussy-ish. The NEW IMPROVED clint eastwood Political Correctness, does not upset the fictional hero’s tummy or embarrass any really bad men.
YUUUUUGE IMPROVEMENT, BELIEVE ME.
“The debate commission is worried about public perception?!” -Bink
It would be more appropriate to worry about their relevance. If it were up to me, I’d send the employees home and close the company door.
Of course, the loss of paychecks, and the loss of kickbacks from tiny colleges that need name recognition, would be devastating. Devastating !
X-R
Cocktail hour in the twin cities
Where is the reporting on the troll’s changing hair style –
KGC
I think I’m gonna pour some of Preacher Craig’s finest
After all, It is 5 o’clock somewhere.
Hey Donnie
oh boy five oclock somewhere I think I will have a lemon drop
and enjoying Mark Halprin forced to say The troll is in the dumper and they don’t have enough money to fix it in August.
America hater ann coulter pisses yet again on the families of non-white or non-Christian men and women who serve in the US Armed Forces :
THE WRATH OF KHAN
August 3, 2016
Khizr Khan, the Muslim “Gold Star Father” who harangued Americans at the Democratic National Convention, with a mute, hijab-wearing wife at his side, is just another in a long string of human shields liberals send out to defend their heinous policies.
Ms Cracker, I always thought that a cocktail was an obnoxious chemical assemblage that an effete fop like the new clint eastwood would sip in a trump bar.
I had a beer for lunch, with a beer to wash it down. There was also the heaping plate of Hunan Beef for an appetizer.
It’ll soon be time for dinner w/a large-ish glass of dry red wine and a large-ish glass of dry red wine on the side. I think all that will be accompanied by a turkey something or other, a platter of which, when placed on the balcony, self-pressure cooks in our traditional August steam heat.
I like cocktails
OMG Trump is in free fall
This is a quality poll, not some internet poll.
Has there ever been such a dramatic collapse of a major candidate?
Look for a dead cat bounce next week and a claim he has recovered.
WOW
Jack
Jill Stein got on the ballot in several more states last week, but only about half-way there.
Ya know if this keeps up Trump may not qualify for the debates.
Jack
BID
They will probably invite her to the debates. Cause when it is HRC and the munchkins what difference does it make.
Weird week
Jack
How many imaginary events are part of Trump’s stump speech…several video tapes, friends,people writing on the internet
never a source that can be confirmed
patd & whskyjack,
Clinton-Johnson / Kaine-Weld Debates would be highly acceptable.
I like reasoned, intelligent thought & I like adults in the room.
bid, here’s one for you just to show the trail is fair and balanced…. well, maybe not so balanced but we mostly are fair. at least solar is.
This whole thing is a bit disturbing. Trump will not get out – if he does we’ll be stuck with a Pence who the media will portray as the incarnation of Jesus Christ.
I am hoping that Trumps sticks – as he should – he’s the nominee. I’m just a bit uncomfortable with this whole thing exploding and burning to the ground so early in the general election cycle.
These elections can turn on a dime – and there’s plenty of time left for this one to turn.
Jill Stein is an egotistical joke! Ha, she comes out every four years and sweeps up the dead enders. Does nothing to actually build a Green Party.You know, like promoting local canidates in the Green Party, build from bottom up.. Sure a daunting task due to the two party control but to not even try.. . Dead ender’s have at it..
Ms Cracker, There must be be more to this cocktail business than I remember. I once liked to have olives in my tequila.
Yup, I don’t remember anything after that.
Let this sink in: 1st female WH nominee leads male rival by 11 pts on being Commander-in-Chief, 18 on handling crisis, 26 on foreign policy
John Harwood
If the deadbeat doesn’t qualify for the debate, that moots the debate debate.
A mute debate won’t sell home delivery carbs, salt, and grease, or cola, or laxatives.
I suppose Clinton could debate herself. She’d be sure to win. But, we always knew that she’d beat the orange off that goofy sideshow barker, even if she had one tongue tied behind her back.
If she can win 75 – 20, I’ll be happier than reagan giving advanced missiles to the ayatollah and training osama bin ladin. Happier than dirty old bush giving nerve gas to saddam hussein. Happier than dirty young bush giving the Iraqi Army ammo depots to al zarkawi. That’s damned happy.
Steady as a rock and jumpy, erratic man
https://mobile.twitter.com/MattOrtega/status/761334289728466945/video/1
Jamie, you will love this clip because Hillary points out all the animals Trump’s kids have killed..
Secret Service agents jump on stage at Clinton rally
http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/08/04/secret-service-jumps-on-stage-at-clinton-rally-sot.cnn
As soon as his taxes are found he’ll drop out because they’ll expose him as a fake billionaire, which seems to be his worst nightmare.
I’m also curious as to what Paul Ryan’s end-game is. Maybe a better question is: “Does Paul Ryan have an end-game”? He seems to be flushing his career down the toilet, unless I’m missing something. Rather seemly.
Bink, you’re a Champ!
Exactly, his taxes. I wish they would get leaked.. Not sure his ego would let him dropout? Ah but to lose to a women in his mind, the biggest loser he will be..
Ok, too much of me. Dicky V, MJ, Granny, all you lurkers: you’re on!
Dicky V ? All this time I thought it was Dmitri V. Well, okay. Dicky seems to be a decent person, too.
So was Mama Vitale (1910 – 1997). She was a real saint.
Tony 39b is a good judge of character
Good night, Dexter.
can now reporting 48-33. happy dance. and obama, thank you! still not hearing them saying anything positive about herself though.
sasha is working directly across the harbor from me at nancy’s- my favorite summertime watering hole. partial to the painkillers this year.
http://www.bostonherald.com/entertainment/inside_track/2016/08/sasha_obama_lands_summer_job_at_vineyard_seafood_joint
“its not her as an excellent candidate, just trump’s self destruction”- christine romans, can
bink & xr, no way our dvitale is this dicky v
talk about a tough audience. you gotta admit she’s got guts…. oh wait, on second tho’t this crowd’s not your usual white guys with a grudge.
nytimes: Hillary Clinton to Address a Rare Audience: Journalists
[….]
Last year, at a journalism awards dinner to honor the New York Times reporter Robin Toner, who died in 2008, Mrs. Clinton proposed starting a “new relationship” with the news media.
“So here goes, no more secrecy, no more zone of privacy,” she said. “After all, what good did that do me?”
Then she told the audience of political journalists and editors to look under their chairs. “You’ll find a simple nondisclosure agreement,” Mrs. Clinton joked. “My attorneys drew it up. Old habits.”
speaking of guys with a Clinton grudge 🙂
boss, how was your dinner party last night?
The Week They Decided He Was Crazy
Trump inflicts one wound after another on his campaign
Peggy Noonan http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-week-they-decided-he-was-crazy-1470354031
tony, thanks for that vegas link. here’s how crooksandliars covered it:
After the agent told her they would handle things and she should continue, Secretary Clinton took the opportunity to give them a piece of advice.
Pointing to the protesters in front of her, Clinton said, “Apparently these people are here to protest Trump, because Trump and his kids have killed a lot of animals.”
Why yes, yes they have.
She then thanked them for making the point and moved on with the rally.
Well played, Hillary Clinton. Well played.
Gang – I promise that I AM NOT this notorious DickyV you’re talking about!
I’m sure torn as to whether I think Trump should go or not. I lean towards wanting him to stay in – and watching the Republicans have to eat this crap sandwich they made. Perhaps if he stays in for a total and complete defeat, they’ll get the message? Nah.
Well I’m off to go educate our future – will post tonight.
tony, also thanks for the peggums piece. well maybe not the whole piece, but this observation of hers which pretty much settles the sanity issue:
five times by my count—again, the compulsion—Mr. Trump departed the meat of the interview to turn his head and stare at the television. On seeing himself on the screen: “Lot of energy. We got a lot of energy.” Minutes later: “Look at this. It’s all Trump all day long. That’s why their ratings are through the roof.”
his constant seeing and speaking of himself in the third person is creepy
Pat
Yes, Peggy got most of it correct.. Ah but her false equivalency regarding Hillary and Trump is ridiculous.. Hillary has “crazy” too, rubbish!
I Ran the C.I.A. Now I’m Endorsing Hillary Clinton.
Mike Morrell
ignatius in wapo: Why facts don’t matter to Trump’s supporters
[….]
Basically, the studies show that attempts to refute false information often backfire and lead people to hold on to their misperceptions even more strongly.
[….]
The study showed two interesting things: People are more likely to accept information if it’s presented unemotionally, in graphs; and they’re even more accepting if the factual presentation is accompanied by “affirmation” that asks respondents to recall an experience that made them feel good about themselves.
Bottom line: Vilifying Trump voters — or, alternatively, parents who don’t want to have their children vaccinated — won’t convince them they’re wrong. Probably it will have the opposite effect.
also has the effect of pumping them up to vote in droves. so don’t celebrate too soon her polls bump. don’t be complacent. “getting out the vote” is now more crucial a message than ever.
OSH… the guy who sells the pina coladas next to Nancy’s is pretty good too… 🙂
watching the meltdown of the GOP is such a summertime treat!
We watched about 10 minutes of Lawrence O’Donnell a couple nights ago. He had on Gillette Penn of Penn & Teller. Apparently Penn had been on Trump’s Celebrity Apprentice and won. When asked what Trump was really like, Penn said he was a very skilled entertainer, but didn’t think those skills translated at all to the world of government. At the end of the interview Penn said that Trump is basically crazy. Yeah…. no kidding… it shows.
NEW THREAD
Another book I recommend for those who are inclined to not be embarrassed by a sip of more than sweet tea with lunch, The Incurable Filibuster, Adventure of Col. Dean Ivan Lamb 1934, Farrer & Rhinehart. A bit hard to find, but worth the extra $$. True or not, the guy did imbibe.
The coming explosion or implosion should be very impressive. Much has been bottled up for almost two days, and from past experience we can be assured that is not without great and exciting release. Chernobyl was bottled up and it almost did a melt to the core. It is almost time to go and snoop around the red sites, just to see the panic of course.