The GOP is defending 24 Senate seats to the Democrats’ 10 and seven of those seats are in states President Obama won twice — Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and New Hampshire. (The Senate is currently composed of 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 2 independents, both of whom caucus with the Democrats.)
What’s the Trump effect? More or less likely the Senate turns blue?
“The Republicans themselves are raising questions about their presumptive nominee. And I think that’s in large measure, John, because they do understand how hard the job of being president is,” she said. “When you have former presidents, when you have high-ranking Republican officials in Congress raising questions about their nominee–I don’t think it’s personal, so much as rooted in their respect for the office and their deep concern about what kind of leader he would be.”
what Hillary said about goper’s respect for office of potus might not hold for senate as most voters tend to like their own senator (and not the others from other states or party) and continue to re-elect said homey. however, a bad low turnout may cancel out the home field advantage: if they stay home, the homey will too.
wonkette on the subject:
You wouldn’t think a Democrat would have much chance of winning a Senate seat in Arkansas, one of the redder red states around, but with Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, there are a lot of red state Democrats feeling hopeful. One of them is Conner Eldridge, a former U.S. attorney for the state, who’s hoping to bring down John Boozman, a first-term senator who ascended from the House in the teabagger wave of 2010. Eldridge won himself several metric fucktons of free media attention for a very slick ad he released this week tying Boozman to Trump, so we figured that’s as good a reason as any to feature Arkansas this week in our countdown of Senate races. Take a look at this ad and imagine variations on it running in every state where a Democrat is trying to unseat a vulnerable Republican incumbent:
It hasn’t aired as a paid ad anywhere in Arkansas yet, but it’s been all over cable news, and rightwing Never-Trumper Erick Erickson wrote of it,
For perhaps the first time ever, we hope Erick Erickson is exactly right.
new dem slogan on taking back the senate: “make the senate great again”…. or even better: “make the senate work again”
patd,
Great Ad, for those who’ll take the time to watch or pay attention. They may be diving deep where the waters tend to be shallow. Wee bits tend to make an impact: Where’s the beef? Morning in America … Make America Great Again. Looking forward (?) to see what thirty second’s worth of tacks the GOP throws under the Democrats’ bus. Republicans tend to excel at the memorable poo factor.
sjwny, that ad very cleverly uses lil Donnie’s new word “enabler” against him. hopefully that will have legs and used to paint all the trumpsters as enablers of his insidious insults. his goper lickspittles and the media are forgiving him of infidelities, stupidities, off-color remarks and indiscretions far worse than the dawg’s dalliances thus enabling a buffoon to bluff his way to potusland.
Well if we can see the problem then I suspect so can the Senators and what looks like an obvious line of attack will disappear.
That said, a perfect Trump attack campaign for an independent organisation to run is a bunch of his baseless attacks and vulgarities, (which help Clinton) Then tie it to Senator/congressman X, With the “Tell him to Stop supporting Trump” tag line. .
But the time to do it is now get the association in the voters brain early and it will stay there for the election.
Run them early run them often
Jack
https://youtu.be/-thy7PstDQQ
My thought on the Arkansas ad is that it is so last century in it’s tech feel. It needs to be slicked up a bit.
But then again in Arkansas it probably looks up to date.
Jack
jack, give them credit for respecting their audience, they’re assuming voters can read.
Speaking of being in the 21st century.
We got Google fiber!!!!
FU Time Warner!!
Doing a happy dance
Jack
OOOh Arkansas jokes, lol @ Pat
Jack
she’s back:
Palin, who was on the 2008 Republican ticket, earlier said on “State of the Union” she “will do whatever I can” to support Ryan’s primary challenger in Wisconsin’s first district. Ryan’s snub of Trump was “not a wise decision of his,” Palin said.
“His political career is over, but for a miracle, because he has so disrespected the will of the people,” said Palin, who was governor of Alaska from 2006 to 2009.
She suggested that Ryan would be “Cantor-ed,” referencing ex-Republican Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s June 2014 Virginia primary loss to an upstart challenger and his ousting from GOP leadership.
[….]
“You know, I think why Paul Ryan is doing this, Jake, it kind of screws his chances for the 2020 presidential bid that he’s gunning for,” she said. “If the GOP were to win now, that wouldn’t bode well for his chances in 2020 and that’s what he’s shooting for. So a lot of people with their ‘Never Trump’ or ‘Now Right Now Trump’ mantra going on, they have different reasons. I think that one is Paul Ryan’s reason.”
Don’t know if it will happen, but McCain is being pushed hard in AZ. Ann Kirkpatrick is a good candidate and McCain has been around long enough to make a lot of enemies. Not sure what effect Trump will have, but McCain is exactly the kind of politician that Trump supporters hate. All in all very interesting.
Sarah Palin. Proof positive as if any were needed, that you can’t fix stupid.
seeing more stories like this:
…putting senators like Pennsylvania’s Pat Toomey, Missouri’s Roy Blunt and New Hampshire’s Kelly Ayotte in the crosshairs of Democrats who hope to tie them to Trump and his controversial positions as part of their bid to win back the Senate.
[….]
The Democratic campaign committee this week tried to link Senate incumbents to both Trump and Republicans’ refusal to act on President Barack Obama’s nomination of Federal Appeals Court Justice Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court.
“Blunt would let the man who wants to ban Muslims from entering the country, called Mexican immigrants ‘rapists,’ and said women should be punished for having an abortion, nominate someone to a lifetime appointment on the Supreme Court,” the committee said in a press release.
It put out identical statements about Ayotte, Toomey and other Republican incumbents.
Pat
The Senate campaign committee is fricking clueless.
that wasn’t an attack on Blunt it was an endorsement.
The voters that give a damn about Trumps racism are already in the democratic column.
So many of these out of state organization cause more harm than good
Attack trumps moral problems. his lies, his contempt of women, his vulgar methods.
RR, is Ayotte beatable?
That Arkansas TV ad a good start … by the way AP reminds us that 55 years ago today, in a speech to the National Association of Broadcasters, FCC Chairman Newton N. Minow, now age 90, decried the majority of television programming as a “vast wasteland.”
I love it when the sage of Wassilla makes pronouncements about Paul Ryan’s (or anyone for that matter) political future. She won exactly one statewide election in her political career, was a sureality show participant and a failed national candidate – helping a bonified war hero lose to a first term senator from Illinois. What neither she nor many of the pro trumpians seem willing to recognize is that trump has won a shade over 40% of the republican vote and there a significant number of prominent repugs who are not supporting him. Don’t misunderstand whta I’m saying – I do not underestimate trump’s chances against Clinton. I am talking only about the internecine spat in the pugn party.
Trump thinks that he might oust Ryan from convention chairmanship if Ryan doesn’t endorse him. Apparently Trump doesn’t understand political conventions either.
And the wasteland has not improved one damn bit since then.
Pogo,
What Palin fails to understand is that unlike her, Paul Ryan can see the White House from his front porch.
So , what about Democratic funders throwing a few dollars to the libertarian party, Maybe running an independent campaign in a few of the western states, You know where New York Politician is a punchline for a joke not a serious consideration for President. Be fun to see the libertarian take Wyoming or some other red states.
A poll last month had them polling in double digits nation wide.
Jack
as the chair of a convention assembling to choose a nominee, paul ryan has the excuse that it wouldn’t be fitting for a chair to endorse any specific candidate until that choice is made. he has cleverly said he will support the nominee who supports the party standards…. and wants to be sure the presumptuous nominee also supports those standards. the ball’s in lil donnie/s court but the real balls seem to belong to ryan in this case.
btw, today’s also hank snow’s birthday.
Sen. John McCain said in an interview aired Sunday he believes Donald Trump “could be a capable leader” and reiterated his stance that he will “support the nominee” of the Republican Party.
Alright, cue up the ad of Donald spewing vulgarities.
And the a clip of McCain saying the above.
lol, Sweet
Jack
Patd,
As convention chair, Ryan could schedule Trump’s acceptance speech at 10:30 AM opposite ‘All My Children’
seth masket with a different opinion at 538 link:
…if the GOP really is experiencing a hostile takeover, we should be observing this beyond just the presidential level. Party changes tend to occur from the ground up, rather than the top down.
To narrow down the study a bit, let’s first look at open-seat Senate and gubernatorial primaries in competitive states where there’s substantial competition for the Republican nomination. I wanted to see what sorts of Republicans are running and which candidates seem to be leading the contests.
What I found was a substantial number of experienced, mainstream Republicans leading in their races for major office, which does not suggest a party that is cracking up.
[….]
What all this suggests is that we’re not witnessing in down-ballot races a Trump-like assault on the Republican Party from the outside. The sorts of people who are running in open seats at the state level and are in positions to win are the sorts of people who have traditionally done well — seasoned politicians with roots in state politics.
A Trump nomination could well be costly for the party. If current polls are any indication, they could lose the presidency by a substantial margin, dragging down quite a few members of Congress and state legislators in the process, especially if Trump’s presence on the ballot drives up Democratic turnout. But the party should be able to recover from that. The presidency is obviously important to a party, but it is not all that a party is.
here you go, jace, like half-gov, another not altogether together gov:
PHOENIX — Former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer is open to pairing up with Republican presumptive presidential nominee Donald Trump, and serve as his vice president, she said on a Sunday national news show.
She also said she didn’t necessarily think he should pick a woman. He is expected to face Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and both are vying for the critical women’s vote.
Craig… Most polls show Ayotte with a slight lead so far. The presumptive nominee on the Democratic side is our governor, Maggie Hassan. But our primary for state officials isn’t until Sept. So Ayotte does have the advantage of doing ads about herself now. Whereas Hassan can’t run ads until she’s actually the nominee. Groups and pacs are running ads against Ayotte.
NH went for Obama twice. We’ve had a Democratic governor now for 12 yrs. So once things really start to heat up… yeah, I think Ayotte could be beaten. But I think it will be close.
Ayotte vs Hasson polls
Patd,
Brewer is a legend in her own mind.
jace, she and drumpf both legends of the fallen
Thanks RR. I ask because New Hampshire looks like a bellwether among the close-call states if Dems have a shot at a Senate majority. Are those indie ads tying her to Trump?
Jace,
Quote of the day, my man.
Polls for Dem race in WV are all over the damn place. Tomorrow will resolve them.
Huffpost Pollster has a very accessible site to the pols that are out there. I found the approval and favorability polls at the bottom of the page to be interesting and fun.
Love this from Glenn Kessler about NAFTA.
Good news for almost everyone here: Smart asses are more creative
Interesting reading for the apology
Confessions of A trump Tabloid scribe
Dr. Jill Stein hit Hillary Clinton with a snarky comment on Mother’s Day. Unfortunately, this meant some heavy traffic about possible collusion. Stein is head of the US Green Party. Head of the UK Green Party is Larry Sanders, elder brother of Bernie Sanders. Bernie needs to decide which party to support.
Jamie, there’s someone who doesn’t know that smartasses are more creative than what – dumbasses?
I’m ~~ certain ~~ that Bernie’s brother’s UK green party affiliation and Jill Stein’s comments were purely coincidental.
huh? so whassup with this?
bloomberg:
Ryan Says He’ll Step Down as Convention Chair If Trump Asks
is this another ryan for prez ploy? ’cause if he’s no longer chair of convention, he’s fair game for a contest (that is if overwhelming vote — like the 60% who don’t want lil Donnie– begs him).
Craig… not yet. The ads are mostly about Ayotte saying she’s independent minded (like most NHerites) yet following party lines about not bringing Merrick Garland up for a Scotus vote…. so she’s not following the Constitution and not doing her job. I’d bet that ads tying her to Trump will be along shortly.
So NC is going to sue the federal government over its actions related to HB2 – you know, the You Can’t Pee Here law. I am not at all sure that what sounds like a declaratory judgment action is an appropriate vehicle to determine whether a state law violates federal law by allowing – or mandating – discrimination. It sounds to me like NC is asking for an advisory opinion regarding the constitutionality of its own law. If that’s what it looks like, the Court doesn’t issue those. If the fed government withheld funds on the basis if the law, NC could sue and get a ruling that would encompass the constitutionality of the law. Seems to me someone has to suffer a harm in order to have standing to sue, and at present, I don’t know of any harm NC has suffered.
BTW, NC’s governor has to be out of his mind. The list of businesses that have withdrawn from NC will do nothing but get longer and longer as long as this stays in the public eye.
WaPo pointed this out last week:
The 4th Circuit isn’t exactly a hotbed of liberalism.
OK, someone explain the two following quotes from the WaPo article about the Pee Somewhere Else law:
And throw in Tony Perkins’ comments and this becomes a skit for Monty Python.
Uh, Tony, it is NC that is trying to do the dictating.
mccrory’s a genius. Watch for a false flag pee-in at the NC Capitol by desperately poor folks bused in from southern Virginia. This will make Gubbner Pisser a contender in 2020. If they pee on the
confederate flag, he immediately becomes the ripper front runner.
Pissing indoors was not part of your god’s plan, mr. perkins.
I fully subscribe to Whiskyjack’s brilliant tactics. That’s a genuine 50 state winner.
from madison editorial: “Paul Ryan can’t have it both ways on Donald Trump”
Ryan does appear to know his place: as a career politician whose first priority is to maintain his own viability. That’s why, instead of standing on principle, Ryan used the “not ready” dodge. That’s not an explicit rejection of the presumptive nominee; that’s a negotiating position. How do we know? Ryan said he “wants” to back Trump and “to be a part of this unifying process.”
Paul Ryan does not have a “dramatic” disagreement with Donald Trump. Ryan is a career politician who is talking out of both sides of his mouth. He is not quite “ready” to dance to Trump’s tune, but he said he “hopes” they will be dancing together soon. And what he absolutely does not say is that Donald Trump is an absolutely unacceptable presidential prospect.
from wonkette:
P.J. O’Rourke, the conservative polemicist whose books unaccountably get shelved in the “humor” section, made a very serious announcement this weekend on National Public Radio’s news quiz show “Wait Wait…Don’t tell Me!” And what is that announcement? You needn’t wait, for we will tell you: He endorsed Hillary Clinton for president, because however much he loathes her (which is a full Benghazi hearing’s worth of loathing), she is at least an actual human politician, not the fur-bearing crapsack the Republican Party will presumably choose as its nominee…..
PJ O’Rourke: Well, Peter, I have a little announcement to make. Yeah, I have a little announcement to make.
I mean, my whole purpose in life basically is to offend everyone who listens to NPR, OK? No matter what position they take on anything, like, I’m on the other side of it, you know.
I’m votin’ for Hillary.
Helen Hong: What?!
O’RourkeI am endorsing Hillary. And all her lies and all her empty promises. I am endorsing Hillary. The second worst thing that could happen to this country. But she’s way behind in second place, you know? She’s wrong about absolutely everything — but she’s wrong within normal parameters!
Tom Bodett: That is a ringing endorsement!
Peter Sagal: I want to hear that on TV, and then I want to hear Hillary Clinton say, “I’m Hillary Clinton, and I’ll take it!”
O’Rourke: I mean, this man just can’t be president of the US. I mean, they got this button, it’s in a briefcase, he’s gonna find it.
Peter Sagal: They can’t hide it. It’ll be like a teenager with your booze.
alexandra petri:
Donald Trump is a problem.
He has a 65 percent unfavorable rating. He is prone to firing off unexpectedly at the mouth. He either doesn’t understand or actively wants to destroy the credit of the United States. If you’re a senator running for reelection and his name shows up at the top of the ticket, you might as well tie an albatross around your neck and head out to sea.
So what to do? Speaking Trump’s name gives him power. He is like Voldemort in that regard. (Also, he is immortal and cannot die as long as his Towers survive. His buildings are his horcruxes and contain fragments of his soul.)
The trick is not to speak his name.
But fortunately for senators in tough, competitive seats, there is another option. You don’t have to endorse Trump. You can just support the Nominee of the Party.
These are not the same thing at all! They are quite different. The Nominee is everything Trump isn’t.
[….] The Nominee sounds wonderful.
He seems to have a strong base of support. Senators who have nothing positive to say about Trump at all speak glowingly of the mysterious Nominee.
Very little is known about him, apart from the fact that he is probably statesmanlike and definitely not embarrassing to have at the top of the ticket,…..
Pogo,
Yes, NC is creating a problem where there is none! Same ol same ol, McCRory is doing the bidding of Tony Perkins and other right wingers in dictating who can use what bathroom.. Shame on them wasting the taxpayers money like their doing.. No way in hell can they enforce such a hateful law anyways..
I was just browsing the latest polls over at RCP and noted that Kelly Ayotte is in as close a race as RR suggested – latest poll at 2 points, and gosh and begorrah, between Trump and Clinton in Georgia, Trump leads BY 1, that’s in GEORGIA fuhchrissake, where he should be up by 20. And Clinton leads him by 9 in NC (but where will they pee?) Trump does lead her by 27 in WV – but then again, he’s bringing back coal (anyone wanna place a bet on THAT promise?)
Tony, I’m guessing that Tony Perkins (idiot) thinks that Obama drafted the Charlotte ordinance that led to the NC law. ODS rears its ugly head. Nothing written or spoken is not a trigger for ODS whether it relates to Obama or not.
BTW Poobah, the underline button doesn’t appear to work.
OMG. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick is calling for the Superintendent of Fort Worth ISD to step down for allowing gender-ID use of whichever potty. His argument: Do you want a 15-year old boy full of “vim and vigor” to walk into a girls’ bathroom? ((sigh)) I haven’t heard anyone say “vim and vigor” since Jack LaLane.
How is this becoming a thing? I think we need to have a national bathroom/mix-it-up protest. Because if this is thing they want to expend their energy on…
Trump’s “enabler” attack getting traction on cable news. Clinton camp ignoring it. They should come up with something before Bill lone rangers a response and makes it worse.
just saw my first Bernie WV ad. It was nonoffensive (thank god) and should be – iI’ll be one of the few here who votes for Hillary. Not sure why he’s wasting money here. He’s up by more than 20 pts.
The striking decline in women’s support for Donald Trump (in 2 graphs)
By Michael Tesle
Hillary’s response today to Trump’s charge that she victimized women her husband abused was okay for her, all she should say, but her campaign had better come up with a way to deal with this because it’s deadly, and without a tough response they are letting him set the agenda, which he has done in this news cycle:
Hillary: “I am going to let him run his campaign however he chooses. I am going to run my campaign, which is about a positive decision for our country.”
Politician baby talk, needs work.
Craig,
My guess is that by the time Team Clinton dredges up all the damage that was done to people as a result of Trump’s multiple bankruptcies, the least of his concerns will be HRC’s enabling of Bill. The Donald is going to have a bankruptcy problem that is very similar to Mitt’s Baine problem.
I was wondering where Trump got the “enabler” angle. Looks like it was credited to a radio interview given by Gennifer Flowers. (Of course, all roads lead to Breibart…so, grain of salt…but it looks like Donald didn’t come up with it in his own.)
LOL to Bill “lone rangering” a response. New trail vernacular.
Jace, I’m unsure about the effectiveness of attacking Trump’s business history, bankruptcies or whatever — plays into his hands, especially when coming from politicians with no business experience, as so many of his GOP rivals discovered.
Poor Donald. One week Hillary is playing the woman card, the next he is calling her a male enabler. WTF? Can’t be both.
Just another entitled GOP candidate who thinks he can skate when he makes outlandish claims that have no basis in fact. Maybe he should tap Palin. Perfect fit.
Craig,
Very possibly true, but if the Obama quest for a healthcare bill taught us anything it is that anecdotal evidence, a few individual stories here and there, can have great sway. Both sides used it with great effectiveness. Team Clinton has the resources and talent to make this into a nightmare for Trump. An eager media will eat it up.
“Funny stuff coming from a Sexist Pig”
Why can’t somebody in her camp (not her) just say that?
Letting him bullshit his way into calling her anti-women without an effective response is driving me nuts.
Seriously. Why don’t they have Carville or someone like him out there chopping his nuts off?
All I see are intellectual surrogates offering dismissive parlor talk, bringing plastic spoons to a knife fight.
Possibly because Carville has been ‘de-nutsified’ by Mary Matlin. Just my guess.
No Jace, FOX did that when they hired him, and Hillary didn’t. Instead her Super PAC is paying $10k a month to Begala to play softball on CNN.
Yep, Jace, for lack of a better choice Lanny Davis would do just fine. Unleash the blood hounds already! Don’t make her carry all the heavy loads.
Trumping Clinton Derangement Syndrome: My Republican Mother is Voting for Hillary
by Doubting Thomas
Paul Begala. One could only expect an anemic statement from him.
Question: What kind of people would she surround herself with as POTUS?
First, we know getting down in the mud doesn’t work just like the pig he enjoys it.
I personally found her answer to be too mild and misdirected. In this case she was surrounded by a bunch press wanting to get her reaction so they could run back and get an answer from Donald and drive the story.
What would Ronald Reagan do? Call them on it, Can’t hurt her nobody likes the press anyway.
After all Trump is doing it because he is losing and needs to distract the press from that story.
That is the story that the press should be covering.
Some one needs to point it out.
Jack
Channeling RR
Stock phrases HRC needs to use with the press
“OK, here we go again, what did Donald say this time”
“I take it he is still losing, right?”
So now Trump is a waffler a flip flopper and a shoot from the hip kind of guy who is promising to ease the national debt by screwing over anyone with a T Bill
I like Jack’s approach
Craig- please, why don’t you jump back into the game? they need you. surely the clinton camp would relish your commentary and i imagine that they would most definitely remember your fair reporting of 2008.
craigcrawfordsays:
May 9, 2016 at 9:11 pm
Jace, I’m unsure about the effectiveness of attacking Trump’s business history, bankruptcies or whatever — plays into his hands, especially when coming from politicians with no business experience, as so many of his GOP rivals discovered.
*******************************************
This not a debate. Spear the dragon in his heart : investors didn’t lose a buck; they each lost years & opportunities as donald tied up their money in Federal Court. The moral is, don’t give deadbeat donald a loan.
for press release/twit : Deadbeat Donald
Good lord, they are dedicating the entire local newscast to potty politics & the brouhaha going on between the Ft. Worth ISD & the Lt. Gov.
The only thing that will save us is severe weather…which the Lt. Gov. would probably blame on transgender people. Idiots!
Rockwall, TX tried to push through a pee-pee law last week, but realized they couldn’t enforce it and let it die.
How is this even an issue? Just let people do their business where they’re comfortable.