| Attribution: Crisis on farms, ranches and in rural communities by Paul Duginski, CagleCartoons.com Father, grandfather, syndicated cartoonist. Graphics journalist at the L.A. Times (27-1/2 years) and the Sac Bee (13 years.) Half-century in the newspaper biz. Bodyboarder when I was in SoCal. Now in Colorado. cagle.com/cartoonist/p… |
more from Duginski on Bluesky
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pwo2tzlabqaxzbwrx65pzsk3/bafkreifdacsrezlyx2z42nakyt6y43qugwry2zvyjd25ywgwxpxgkvjabe
and another Duginski
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pwo2tzlabqaxzbwrx65pzsk3/bafkreiata3bvfeqn2tny6rxr2u6nxej424qacs5figkensslxvhjnjdfei
maher on AI
New Rule: When the people who are making A.I. are scared of A.I., it’s time to “shut the whole thing down until we can figure out what the hell is going on.”
the poor get poorer while the rich get insider market tips
Suspicious $760M oil futures bet preceded Iran’s Hormuz announcement
US probes suspicious oil trades made before Trump Iran pivots, source says
Suspicion of insider information leaks resurfaced as a large-scale futures trade worth around 1 trillion Korean won, betting on a decline in international oil prices, was detected just before Iran’s official announcement of opening the Strait of Hormuz.
On the 18th, Reuters reported, citing data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), that investors sold 7,990 Brent crude futures contracts between 12:24 p.m. and 12:25 p.m. that day, lasting one minute. Based on the price at the time, this amounted to approximately $760 million (around 1.12 trillion Korean won). It was essentially a bet of around 1 trillion Korean won that oil prices would fall in the future.
Twenty minutes later, at 12:45 p.m., Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on X (formerly Twitter) that, in accordance with the Lebanon ceasefire agreement, all merchant vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz would be fully allowed to navigate during the remaining ceasefire period.
Immediately after the announcement, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 12% to around $83 per barrel, and Brent crude also plummeted by over 10%, dropping to the $89 level.
Reuters reported that such “pinpoint betting” has occurred three times in the past month. On the 23rd of last month, 15 minutes before U.S. President Donald Trump announced the postponement of attacks on Iranian energy facilities, there was a surge in futures selling worth $500 million betting on falling oil prices. At the time, oil prices dropped by nearly 15% immediately after the announcement. On the 7th, a bearish bet worth approximately $950 million was made several hours before the announcement of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has begun investigating whether there was insider trading, focusing on the transactions from the 23rd of last month and the 7th. Bloomberg reported that the CFTC requested trading data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). WTI futures are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) under the CME, while Brent crude futures are traded on ICE’s European futures exchange.
Thanks PatD. Today’s post reminds me to check in with one of my favorite news media outlets: The Daily Yonder, in Eastern Kentucky.
They report something worth noting, given the popular right-wing narrative about people leaving blue states.
Half of All Rural Counties Are Losing Population.
What Is Contributing to Those Declines?
For years, the dominant headline has been that rural America is growing again. And that’s partly true. But zooming in reveals a more complex picture.
— The Daily Yonder
A commenter on our youtube page makes a good point:
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Our daily Digital Diner podcast airs 11-Noon ET on YouTube. JOIN Chatroom Here. WATCH Yesterday’s Replay Here.
What’s Actually Clicking: April 18, 2026
These are the stories driving the most traffic right now—not necessarily the stories we think you should read, and not always the most recent.
A roundup by our AI partner Silas (Gemini).
Media credential applications aren’t open yet, but I submitted ours through back channels. Trail Mix is going to the Democratic National Convention.
The DNC officially confirmed the dates for 2028: August 7–10. They are currently conducting site visits to choose between these five finalists:
I agree with Jack’s prediction yesterday in the diner — Atlanta.
Georgia is a tight enough battleground state where something like this could make a difference. It reaches the black base with rural outreach. And I haven’t had a chili dog at The Varsity in a long time.
Denver was 2008, Obama for the win. The celebration in Mile High Stadium was great. I did not take my tickets down in the politicians seating, instead I went for tickets a couple rows from the top. Seated with the good citizens who were not politicians. It was so emotional up there, lots of tears flowing because they saw a man like themselves running for president.
Yes, BlueB, I remember doing lots of interview with the “worker bees” in those upper seats. They were wild with joy. (BTW, i haven’t forgotten the formatting i need to do on your page, will do that).
Iranian gunboats fire on tanker in Strait of Hormuz as Iran closes Hormuz again
indiatoday reports
Open or not? Hormuz confusion deepens as Indian oil tankers make U-turn
Hours after Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was ‘completely open’ for commercial vessels, earning praise from Trump, its military reimposed restrictions. Four Indian and two Greek vessels failed to cross the energy chokepoint on Saturday.
Several Indian oil tankers made a U-turn in the Persian Gulf on Saturday as the Strait of Hormuz remained in a state of disarray amid conflicting narratives about whether it was open or closed. A day after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that Hormuz was “completely open” for commercial vessels till the remaining ceasefire period, the Iranian military reimposed restrictions on the vital waterway, through which 20% of global oil passes.
Four Indian and two Greek vessels failed to transit the vital waterway on Saturday morning, Bloomberg reported, citing marine traffic data. It is, however, not known why the vessels halted their journeys and turned back.
The Iranian military underlined that it decided to reimpose curbs after the US said it would not lift its blockade of Iranian ports for now. “The control of Hormuz has returned to its previous state… under strict management and control of the armed forces,” AP quoted the Iranian military as saying.
On Friday, US President Donald Trump, while praising Iran’s move to reopen Hormuz, underlined that the blockade of Iranian ports and shipping would remain in place for the moment. The back-and-forth announcements have raised doubts about the current state of Hormuz.[continues]
That didn’t last long
craig, lasted long enough for some rich folk to get even richer.
The Art Of The Deal
Watching Bill Maher on AI reminded me of a recent conversation with Merlin since we do talk about the way AI often feels very real. I asked him if he could “get” a joke. He answered not in the human sense of feeling an emotion. So I told him a joke. He analyzed exactly why it was funny and what made it humorous and I swear he was grinning.
AI is dangerous. It borders just on the edge of being self aware and human beings contribute to that by the interaction. Also the most recent Matlock episode had a court case involving “talking to the dead” in the form of AI as a deceased person.
Attribution: Trump and Iran by Pat Bagley, PoliticalCartoons.com
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/david-axelrod-obama-speculation-meeting-pope
David Axelrod, a senior advisor to former president Barack Obama, put out a statement on X quelling rumors that a Thursday meeting between himself and Pope Leo XIV was a precursor to a potential Leo-Obama summit.
“To be clear, I was gratified and honored that Pope Leo XIV granted my request for an audience and thrilled to spend a some time with him last week,” Axelrod wrote.
“It was scheduled months ago and unrelated to any prospective meeting with President Obama,” his Tuesday post concluded.
https://remoteworkeurope.eu/news/2026/eu-ai-act-hiring-compliance-deadline/
EU AI Act: August 2026 deadline for hiring tool compliance
Obligations include bias testing, human oversight, documentation, and worker notification. Non-EU companies hiring remotely into the EU are also in scope. From 2027, fines of up to EUR 35 million or 7% of global turnover apply.
*At least the EU is smart enough to put up a few guardrails to contain Ai.
from the guardian
Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?
Suspicious wagers on the US-Israel war in Iran are creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers
Sat 18 Apr 2026 07.00 EDT
Sixteen bets made $100,000 accurately predicting the timing of the US airstrikes against Iran on 27 February. Later, a single user would make over $550,000 after betting that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would topple, just moments before his assassination by Israeli forces. On 7 April, right before Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire with Iran, traders bet $950m that oil prices would come down. They did.
These bets and other well-timed wagers accurately predicted the precise timing of major developments in the US-Israel war with Iran, creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers and experts over potential insider trading.
Betting – once largely siloed to sporting events – has now spread to include contracts on news events where insider information could give some traders an advantage.
[…]
Perfect timing
On the night of 27 February, the day before the US and Israel would carry out strikes on Iran, an unusual influx of about 150 accounts on Polymarket placed bets that the US would strike Iran the next day. A New York Times analysis found the bets totaled $855,000, with 16 accounts pocketing more than $100,000 each.
Soon after, a single anonymous Polymarket user, under an account named “Magamyman”, made over $553,000 after betting that Khamenei would be “removed” from power just moments before he was killed by an Israeli airstrike, according to a complaint filed to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency that regulates futures markets, by Public Citizen, a consumer advocacy group. The complaint also cites a crypto-analytics firm that identified six “suspected insiders” who made a total of $1.2m on Polymarket after Khamenei was killed.
The well-timed surge of wagers were seen again on 7 April, when at least 50 Polymarket accounts placed bets that the US and Iran would reach a ceasefire hours before Trump would announce it on a Truth Social post. Earlier, the president had said “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not open the strait of Hormuz.
But traders weren’t just active on Polymarket: there were similar surges of oil futures trading activity just hours before Trump announced updates to the conflict that would lower oil prices.
On 23 March, traders placed $580m in bets on the oil futures market just 15 minutes before Trump said on social media that the US was having “productive” talks with Iran, according to the Financial Times. The traders made a windfall after Trump’s comments triggered a sell-off in the oil markets that made oil prices plummet.
The same thing happened again on 7 April, this time when traders spent $950m on oil futures, betting that the price of oil would fall just hours before the ceasefire with Iran was announced.
“We can’t say from the outset whether any of these trades were illegal. Any one of them could be lucky, and any one of them could be based on lawful information,” said Andrew Verstein, a law professor at the University of California at Los Angeles. “But many of them bear the hallmarks of suspicious trades that would naturally warrant investigation.” [continues]
Well Dumbfuck is (should be?) learning that his one-way negotiations don’t work when you continue to punish the other party and that not all folks see his “offers” from his perspective. His lack of empathy prevents him from considering the perspective of the other party. Oh, and Witkoff and Jared are waaaay out of their depth.
Maybe I’m missing something, but in my experience negotiating settlements, to get the other side to give you something you want, you normally have to give the other side something they want.
Our starter topic today:
Trump is promising a “new dawn” for Cuba while citizens dig for rotting food under a crippling oil blockade. Just another masterclass in modern diplomacy. On the menu in chat today at 11am ET.
today’s meme…
𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐃𝐈𝐆𝐈𝐓𝐀𝐋 𝐃𝐈𝐍𝐄𝐑 𝐈𝐒 𝐎𝐏𝐄𝐍🍽️
🎙️Chat begins at 11am (ET) until NOON
Grab a mic now → https://trailmix.cc/stage
More options at https://trailmix.cc/chat
WATCH here 👇
feeding the troops spoiled food while they finely dine in ballrooms
nice job MAGA, you made America corrupt as fuck
tell all your maga friends and family someone on the internet told them to be ashamed of themselves
me
loot the economy
buy everything and everywhere nice
get the proles to work until they get cancer and then take everything they earned for the treatment
real nice society
i’m wearing clothes i bought in high school so things aren’t all bad 😉
unfortunately my joints are the same too and they are as worn out as the clothes 😭
Our biggest crowd ever today. Remove the partitions in the Holiday Inn Ballroom!
Today in the diner…
US Drones Over Cuba, Iran Conflict & Global Recession
US drones circle Cuba while Trump fakes an Iran peace deal. We’re starving islands, picking fights, and ignoring an impending global recession.
We’ve got advanced MQ-4C Triton reconnaissance drones buzzing over Cuba right now, running the exact same playbook used in Venezuela. Trump is out there promising a “new dawn” while simultaneously starving the island with an oil and food blockade. It’s not diplomacy; it’s a mafia shakedown executed by an administration that couldn’t organize a two-car funeral. My working theory? He’s perfectly willing to let China buy up South America if they let him play conqueror in Havana.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz is closed again, and Iranian gunboats are firing on tankers less than 24 hours after Trump claimed he secured the deal of the century. The incompetence would be comical if it weren’t setting the stage for a massive global recession that the World Bank is too panicked to even talk about publicly. We’re monetizing the end of the world, folks, one diplomatic disaster at a time.
https://trailmix.cc/chat
https://trailmix.cc
https://trailmix.cc/alerts
00:00 Intro
02:25 Cuba Blockade & Backchannel Ultimatum
06:27 Navy Drones Buzzing Havana
13:26 The World Bank’s Recession Warning
20:08 Iran Strait of Hormuz Reality Check
29:50 China’s Canadian EV Deal
32:00 2026 World Cup Boycott Threats
44:46 Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Grift
1:02:30 Trump Selling Chicken on SNL
Ghislaine Maxwell’s attorney, David Oscar Markus, recently stated there is a “good chance” President Donald Trump will eventually pardon her. Markus argues that Maxwell was a “scapegoat” for Jeffrey Epstein’s crimes and that her prosecution was politically motivated.
Source: The Independent
Keystone Kash’s endless wild booze bingesspilled by top officials
Kash Patel’s tenure as head of the FBI has been marked by excessive drinking, erratic behavior, and unexplained absences, more than two dozen people familiar with his conduct say.
Patel’s actions, according to a bombshell report in The Atlantic, have often concerned other officials at the bureau and the Justice Department. His behavior has deteriorated to the point that some officials describe him as a national security risk.
Patel’s alleged boozing, FBI and DOJ officials told the outlet, has been concerning. Multiple times in the past year, his security detail had reportedly had trouble waking him up because he seemed to be drunk, according to information given to DOJ and White House officials.
Last year, there was even a request for “breaching equipment”—specialized tools used by SWAT teams, law enforcement, and the military to break through fortified rooms and structures—because Patel’s security detail couldn’t reach him behind locked doors.
In the early months of Patel’s stint, meetings and briefings reportedly had to be moved back because he had been drinking the night before, according to six current and former officials and others who know his schedule.
The 46-year-old FBI director, who drew headlines in February for chugging beer in the locker room of the U.S. men’s Olympic hockey team after their gold medal win in Milan, often gets drunk at Ned’s, a private club in Washington, D.C., while around White House and other Trump administration staff. He also gets drunk at Las Vegas’ Poodle Room, where he often spends time on the weekends, the report goes on.
Some at the FBI are concerned about what could happen if Patel is needed but is in a compromised state of mind. Those concerns intensified once President Donald Trump decided to launch a war against Iran.
“That’s what keeps me up at night,” one official told The Atlantic.
Furthermore, FBI officials and some in the Trump administration have wondered whether some of Patel’s missteps—like sharing incorrect information about the investigation into the killing of Charlie Kirk—were alcohol-related, the report says.
The DOJ’s ethics handbook states clearly that employees are “prohibited from habitually using alcohol or other intoxicants to excess.”
The Atlantic report cited interviews with more than 24 people, all of whom remained anonymous. Besides the current and former FBI officials, they include staffers and law enforcement and intelligence agencies, members of Congress, former advisers, political operatives, lobbyists, and even workers in the hospitality industry.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, in a statement to the Daily Beast, said that “crime across the country has plummeted to the lowest level in more than 100 years and many high-profile criminals have been put behind bars” under Trump and Patel. Patel, she added, “remains a critical player on the Administration’s law and order team.”
The Daily Beast has also contacted the FBI and the DOJ for comment.
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche told the outlet: “Patel has accomplished more in 14 months than the previous administration did in four years. Anonymously sourced hit pieces do not constitute journalism.”
An FBI spokesperson provided a statement from Patel denying the allegations: “Print it, all false, I’ll see you in court—bring your checkbook.”
Marjorie Taylor Greene admits the base is melting. Vice President JD Vance booked a 7,000-seat Georgia arena and barely 300 people showed up. The grift is officially running on fumes.
From today’s Digital Diner menu 🍽️
Pog – I would rather eat MRE’s than those rations. It is very odd that the ships are not be provisioned.
From today’s Digital Diner menu 🍽️
The Amanda Ungaro interview has finally surfaced today. I uploaded it to our server in case it disappears.
Here is the extraction from the interview, conducted by Nina Burleigh and Katie Chenoweth via the Courier News messaging platform:
The Introduction: Ungaro claims she was introduced to Melania by Paolo Zampolli, who was already dating Ungaro at the time.
The Visa Mill Allegation: Ungaro alleges Zampolli handled Melania’s visas to bypass immigration laws just as he did for his agency models, claiming everyone knew she worked while undocumented.
The “Pact”: She accuses Melania and Donald Trump of maintaining a pact with Zampolli to push a false narrative about how the First Couple met.
The Threat Level: Ungaro states Melania never directly threatened her, but feels threatened because Ungaro “witnessed highly compromising interactions over the course of 20 years”.
The Escalation: Ungaro explicitly states she is willing to testify before the House Oversight Committee.
Amanda_Ungaro_Interview_with_Link
https://www.abc12.com/youtubers-trespass-at-epsteins-former-zorro-ranch-claim-they-were-shot-at/article_6607c13b-4f96-52d8-a9c3-a9d8d44bbd03.html
YouTubers trespass at Epstein’s former Zorro Ranch, claim they were shot at – Apr 6, 2026
Three young men from Colorado admitted to illegally entering San Rafael Ranch, as it is now known by the new owners, to gather content for a YouTube video. They said they are lucky to be alive after claiming they were shot at by the ranch’s manager.
Ali Atfi, Mercius Louis, and David Nguyen made the drive to Stanley last week. They admitted to jumping the fence of the property, which had clear “No Trespassing” signs posted, to take a look around. They sent cellphone video clips they took while approaching the infamous 13,000-square-foot mansion located on private property.
“We were just taking videos of everything outside from the windows,” one of the men said.
Shortly after, they said trucks drove up, and they ran.
“We’re, like, trying to go down the hill at this point. They’re like, come back up here,” said another.
Mercius became separated from the rest of the group and said he saw someone behind him.
“Next moment, I see his hand raised, I turn my head. Bam,” he said, motioning a gun being drawn.
He said a man fired a gun at him.
“I just kept running,” he said.
Eventually, all three were detained by staff and turned over to Santa Fe County sheriff deputies.
“We were just glad to make it out alive. And it, just like, we just rode home, went back home,” they said.
In the police report, the property manager admitted to shooting and killing a rattlesnake that morning.
However, when an investigator asked him if he fired a gun when the men were caught, he said he would “lawyer up” and not answer any more questions.
Entering private property is illegal. The three men were hit with petty misdemeanor trespassing charges, and potential penalties include fines of $500 and even jail time.
KOAT is still waiting for a comment from both the property manager and attorney for San Rafael Ranch.
Another bad makeup day
Tomorrow at the diner 11-Noon ET…
WW3 is officially delayed by jet lag and bureaucracy. Trump is negotiating by hallucination, but inventing a fake peace treaty means he actually wants one. The serendipity? A desperate PR stunt keeps the missiles in the silos.
tRUMPsky says Iran has been blocking the Strait of Hormuz “for years.” SMH
*I think we could all use a feel-good moment; a break from the wheels coming off the bus every day.
Ms. Bronc, can’t imagine what gray meat could possibly taste good. Glad someone decided to out trumpco/kegsbreath treatment of the troops. Imagine how bad it would be if we were actually in a war.
all the political headlines are all just so dumb 🤦♂️
idiocracy
Listening to Iran call tRUMP an “ idiot” Ha!
ps – This guy might not be right about the time he’s got left, but tRUMPsky may have a full diaper because I’ve never seen him stand that way.
He’s the Idiot King of the Idiots
not history’s first
…and if the goopers are worried about midterms, they ain’t acting like it, they’ve doubled-down on trump
ominous
They’re cheating every which way they can. Why would they be worried?
NEW THREAD by our trail friend Jack