Trail Mix

By Dvitale300, a Trail Mix Contributor

There is a big misconception about the Senatorial race this year.  That misconception is that Trump is the one making it possible for the Democrats to take back the Senate.  Although he may have an impact – I heard the other day that only 6% of voters will vote for one party’s candidate for President and another party’s for Senate.

The real impact is geography and timing.  This year there are 24 Republican Senate seats up for re-election, and only 10 Democratic seats in contest.   This, combined with the fact that quite a few of the Republican seats in contest are those that swung Republican after the backlash election of 2010, which was Obama’s first mid-term election. Right out of the gate it was predestined that the Democrats would/could take the Senate back.  Trump is only icing on the electoral cake.

It is the press that wants everyone to think that this is a ‘to the wire’ thing re: the Senate going Democratic with Trump as the key player.  They get viewers, ratings and increased advertising revenue for fostering this misconception.

The real story here lies in two areas.  First we have the House of Representatives, which has a 247 Republican to 188 Democratic margin; that’s a difference of 59 seats.  While the Republicans at the state level have been gerrymandering the hell out of districts, should the Democrats take back 30 of those slots it will send shutters through the halls of D.C. politics.

The second story here is the gubernatorial races in which currently, Republicans hold 31 seats, the most since 1999.  This year there are 12 governor races in contest, eight of which are currently held by Democrats.  Seven of these races have an incumbent that cannot run due to term limits.  Then there is Mike Pence from Indiana, who withdrew from the race.  As a side note is North Carolina: Republican Pat McCrory is running for re-election — in a state that is now showing in the Clinton column.

Should the Democrats manage to knock off a few of the Republican Governors this will affect the make-up of congressional districts (for the 2020 census) and possibly change/level the playing field.

If you live in one of these states, what do you see happening regarding your gubernatorial race?

More Posts by Dvitale300

By Xrepublican, a Trail Mix Contibutor

This is the great lesson of Iraq Fiascos I & II: Presidents are not beholden to anyone but their own interests. If the president’s vision is to make a killing in the oil futures market he will disrupt oil shipments from Kuwait, Iran, and Iraq. If the president’s vision is to raise a healthy, well-adjusted, and well-educated generation of children, then that president will work to make it so.

This is the way I see things unfolding in the next 53 months :

When she enters the White House, Ms Clinton will already have made her mark in history. Her legacy, like Washington’s, Lincoln’s, Kennedy’s, and Obama’s, will have been made indelibly. On this sunny pinnacle Ms Clinton will see only one thing left to do, one thing even better to achieve – her vision of the America that might be, if only it is given a presidential boost. When she is sworn in, in January, Ms Clinton’s old Big Biz pals are going discover a Clinton who ruthlessly pursues a more just, safe, and equitable America, the America of fondest dreams, even if it means bending or busting Corporate America to her will.

I have faith in the woman and our future.

By Jace, a Trail Mix Contributor

Had actually chosen something else for today, but this is simply too good not to share. Enjoy the music and enjoy your day!

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The Clintons released their latest tax return on Friday, showing an adjusted gross income of $10.6 million for 2015, and $3.6 million in federal taxes paid, an effective tax rate of about 35 percent.

So far we can only guess about Trump’s taxes. Reasons for his secrecy include speculation that his business isn’t as successful as he says, or that he possibly paid no taxes:

New York Times Columnist James Stewart: “Trump, as a prominent and active developer, can take advantage of some of the most generous tax breaks in the federal tax code to reduce his reported income to near zero, or even report a loss.”

 

NBC NEWS: “Hillary Clinton delivered an economic speech in Warren, Michigan Thursday. She offered few new details on her own policy, and instead devoted most of her time to slamming Donald Trump’s tax plan, which he discussed Monday.”

Here are the facts behind Clinton’s speech.

• CLAIM: “An independent analysis by a former economic adviser to Senator John McCain,” Clinton said, found that Trump’s platform would lead to 3.4 million in job losses, while her plan would create 10 million jobs.
• THE FACTS: Clinton is referring to a June assessment by Moody’s Analytics. It was authored by several economists, but led by Mark Zandi. Zandi was in fact one of McCain’s advisers — but he’s also a registered Democrat and a donor who has maxed out to Clinton’s campaign. The Moody’s analysis did say that Trump’s policies would result in 3.4 million in job losses over the course of his potential presidency, reading in part: “The economic damage created by Mr. Trump’s policies is also stark when considering how the economy would perform if there were no significant changes to policy.” Moody’s July report on Clinton’s economic plan said it would create 10.4 million new jobs over the course of her hypothetical presidency.
• CLAIM: “Then there’s the Estate Tax, which Trump wants to eliminate altogether. If you believe that he’s as wealthy as he says, that alone would save the Trump family $4 billion. But it would do nothing for 99.8 percent of Americans.”
• THE FACTS: Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center, said this mostly checks out. The Estate Tax — which Republicans prefer to call the Death Tax — only affects estates worth more than $5 million, and just 0.2 percent of people who die each year surpass that threshold. The $4 billion figure though, based on Trump’s stated net worth of $10 billion, is a bit trickier since Trump could employ a number of tax avoidance mechanisms.
• CLAIM: “I will stop any trade deal that kills jobs or holds down wages — including the Trans-Pacific Partnership. I oppose it now, I’ll oppose it after the election, and I’ll oppose it as President.”
• THE FACTS: Clinton came late to opposing the TPP: She called it the “gold standard” of trade deals when she was Secretary of State. She now says she opposes it, and would as president, though critics on both the right and left remain suspicious.
• CLAIM: Clinton said Trump called for a new loophole in his Monday speech that would allow him “to pay less than half the current tax rate on income from many of his companies.” She added that he would “pay a lower rate than millions of middle class families.”
• THE FACTS: The Washington Post delved into what Clinton calls the “Trump loophole,” which would effectively lower the tax rate on high-income “pass-through” entities — companies that file taxes through their individual owners, rather than at corporate rates — from 39.6 percent to 15 percent. The Tax Policy Center’s Williams said Clinton is right to say that Trump’s companies would indeed pay half the current tax rate. But he said it’s harder to state definitively whether that would be lower than middle-class families’ rates, since it would depends on their income level, and thus tax rate, as well as the amount they pay in payroll taxes. Under Trump’s plan, an estimated 63 percent of low-and-middle-class Americans would pay no federal income taxes at all.
• CLAIM: “We do know that the 400 richest taxpayers in America would get an average tax cut of more than $15 million a year from this loophole,” Clinton said.
• THE FACTS: The IRS periodically puts out data on the top 400 taxpayers. While Williams said it’s difficult to measure this claim in detail, he guesses they’d save between $10 and $15 million. “They’d save a lot of money,” he said.
• CLAIM: “The tax cuts he doubled down on in his speech on Monday offer trillions to the richest Americans and corporations.”
• THE FACTS: Clinton may be high-balling here, but it’s difficult to know for sure without more details on Trump’s new tax plan. The Tax Policy Center estimated that Trump’s old tax proposal would cut federal revenues by $9.5 trillion over the first 10 years, and that “high-income taxpayers would receive the biggest cuts, both in dollar terms and as a percentage of income.” However, Trump altered key portions of his plan Monday with the goal of making it $7 trillion less expensive, so the old analysis is out of date.