Finally, Real Votes Instead Of Polls

As actual votes come in we can dial back on sifting through polls.

And the Democratic ground game in the Blue Wall is showing results.

PA: Almost 800,000 early votes have been cast in Pennsylvania and Democrats are destroying Republicans.

MI: Over 1 million early votes in Michigan and Democrats are destroying Republicans.

WI: Just over 300,000 votes cast so far in Wisconsin and Republicans come in third:
Democrats 40%
Unaffiliated 41%
Republicans 19%

EARLY VOTE IN ALL 7 BATTLEGROUND STATES
Total Cast: 4,755,160
Democrats: 2,410,117 (50.7%)
Republicans: 1,950,572 (41.0%)
Unaffiliated: 394,471 (8.3%)

— Source: TargetEarly Dashboard by TargetSmart

In Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina the two parties are roughly even, while Republicans are running about 10 points ahead.

For now I’m resisting a hard look at comparisons to the similar time frame for early voting four years ago because in 2020 the COVID pandemic made voter behavior so unique it might not be useful information.

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Author: craigcrawford

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38 thoughts on “Finally, Real Votes Instead Of Polls”

  1. Harris schedule this week
    Today – Chester County, PA, Oakland County, MI, Waukesha County, WI
    Tue – Staff briefings in DC
    Wed – CNN Town Hall in PA  
    Thu — Georgia rally with Barack Obama
    Fri – TBA
    Sat- Michigan rally with Michelle Obama

  4. Palmer’s daughter Peg on what he thought of Trump:

    “My dad didn’t like people who act like they’re better than other people. He had no patience for people who are dishonest and cheat. My dad was disciplined. He wanted to be a good role model. He was appalled by Trump’s lack of civility and what he began to see as Trump’s lack of character.”

     

  5. mischief afoot according to

    Trump allies spending millions to dissuade voters in key states from polls | US elections 2024 | The Guardian

    Key rightwing legal groups with ties to Donald Trump and his allies have banked millions of dollars from conservative foundations and filed multiple lawsuits challenging voting rules in swing states that are already sowing distrust of election processes and pushing dangerous conspiracy theories, election watchdogs warn.
    They also warn that the groups appear to be laying the groundwork for a concerted challenge to the result of November’s presidential election if Trump is defeated by Kamala Harris.
    America First Legal and the Public Interest Legal Foundation together reaped more than $30m dollars from the Wisconsin based Bradley Impact Fund and its parent, the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation, from 2017 through 2022, according to a financial analysis from the Center for Media and Democracy.
    Lawsuits filed by the groups, which overlap with some Republican party litigation, focus in part on conspiratorial charges of non-citizen voting, which is exceedingly rare, and bloated voter rolls, and pre-sage more lawsuits by Trump if his presidential run fails, in an echo of his 2020 election-denialist claims, say watchdogs.
    “It seems clear that the lawsuits these rightwing groups are bringing attacking the integrity of the voting rolls, methods of voting and how the ballots are counted are an attempt to make it harder for people to vote, disenfranchise and intimidate legitimate voters, and create confusion,” said Larry Noble, a former general counsel at the Federal Election Commission.
    Noble added: “At the same time, they also appear to be laying the groundwork to challenge the results of the election after November 5, if Trump loses.”
    In another troubling sign, Noble cited the dearth of data to support non-citizen voting claims to reject the “rationale for the non-citizen voting lawsuits”.
    A study from the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University, in the wake of false claims by Trump of widespread non-citizen voting in the 2016 presidential election, revealed only 30 incidents among 23.5m ballots cast.
    Other voting watchdogs voice strong warnings about the Maga-allied legal blitzes.
    “We’re seeing much more litigation from Trump allies this election cycle, targeted at swing states, which appears to lack evidence,” warned David Becker, who runs the nonpartisan non-profit Center for Election Innovation and Research.
    Becker noted, critically, that the lawsuit plaintiffs often knew about the challenged policies, including issues relating to voting lists, non-citizen voting, mail voting and military voting, years or even decades earlier, and seem to have intentionally waited until the last minute to file their lawsuits. “While they’re very unlikely to get the relief they’re seeking, this could later fuel claims that the election was stolen,” he said.
    […]
    Election watchdogs say the aim of these pro-Trump groups with election-denialist track records, coupled with the surge in lawsuits by other Maga allies, is to cast doubts about election rules and security, and are harbingers for challenging the results in key states if Trump loses.
    “Under the guise of election integrity, new policies and legal challenges are being advanced that could ultimately disenfranchise US citizens,” said Michael Beckel, the research director of Issue One.
    “Secretive big-money donors are bankrolling a blitz of false information about the integrity of elections and laying the groundwork for Trump supporters to challenge the results of the presidential election if they don’t like the outcome,” Beckel added.
    Similarly, Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania, the former Republican representative, told the Guardian: “I believe Trump’s allies are planning to challenge the certification of votes in various battleground states if he loses. I think they’re trying to lay the groundwork post-election for litigation challenging certification.”
    Ultimately, Noble emphasized that the wave of lawsuits poses long-run dangers to democracy and election security by “creating an atmosphere that presents a real and present threat to the safety of election workers who have a long record of running free and fair elections”.
    “These are not just the efforts of some fringe groups and this is not truly about election integrity,” he said. “These are efforts being supported by Trump and the [Republican National Committee] … and the claims of election fraud have long been debunked. The end goal appears to be to put Trump back in power regardless of the cost to the country and our democracy.”

  6. Bink, I’m familiar with that story about Clapton using the Time melody. The finger rightly points at Jim Gordon, co-writer of the song – Clapton’s drummer in Derek and the Dominoes – who according to Bobby Whitlock and Graham Nash took credit for writing the song rather than giving Rita credit. A fair measure of blame also goes to Robert Stigwood. Tallahassee Democrat story on that.
     Wiki goes into more detail on it. 

    In addition to his drumming, Gordon was credited with contributing the elegiac piano coda for the title track, “Layla”. In later years, Whitlock claimed that the coda was not actually written by Gordon: “Jim took that piano melody from his ex-girlfriendRita Coolidge. I know because in the D&B days I lived in John Garfield’s old house in the Hollywood Hills and there was a guest house with an upright piano in it. Rita and Jim were up there in the guest house and invited me to join in on writing this song with them called ‘Time’. (Her sister Priscilla wound up recording it with Booker T. Jones) Jim took the melody from Rita’s song and didn’t give her credit for writing it. Her boyfriend ripped her off”. Graham Nash (who later dated Coolidge) substantiated Whitlock’s claim in his memoir. “Time” was not released by Priscilla Coolidge and Booker T. until 1973, on their albumChronicles.

     

  7. Sewing disinformation about election security doesn’t do a thing to dissuade Dems.   Dems are voting early, because Dems tend to vote early more often than Repugz.   Also, Adolf told the MAGAts not to vote early until very recently.  

  8. New Washington Post poll, last in field nearly a week ago but a huge sample — 5k Likely Voters:
    Georgia – 🔵 Harris 51-47%
    Wisconsin – 🔵 Harris 50-47%
    Michigan – 🔵 Harris 49-47%
    Pennsylvania – 🔵 Harris 49-47%
    Nevada – 🟡 Tie 48-48%
    Arizona – 🔴 Trump 49-46%
    North Carolina – 🔴 Trump 50-47%
    Sept. 30 – October 15 | N=5,016 LV

    If that is where it ends up she’s in, 286 electoral votes

  9. Last night/early this morning, I read the background story as to why a political stunt was held a a mcd’s involving the orange idiot.  The story is that sfb is too stupid to know you don’t bother writing a lot of stuff into resumes.  In particular part-time, short lived, things like working at a fast food restaurant.  So, in the stable genious brain if Harris did not have it in some resumes it never happened.  I can believe one of the string pullers put this in the mush of a brain, just like tariffs are making foreign companies pay instead of American purchasers of products.
     
    Another guess is that the orange blob is the one that came up with the stunt to own the libs/Harris.  It is so ineffective as a vote changer that most people would not even think of this unless told the background.  But, it made sfb feel good so do it.  Albeit there is collateral damage, this time to McDonald’s.  Sorry for that, but they lost me with with the nine dollar quarter pounder, no cheese, no fries. I have seen a lot of swearing off the clown house, at least for now. 
     
    The best memes come from stupid stunts and not thinking ahead, even one step ahead.  There are plenty of silly ones this time.  Too bad the fool has no shame otherwise he would crawl into a hole and cry.

  10. The high numbers are disheartening.  Folks sure do have a taste for sh/t.

    Project 2025 – Don’t let it happen to you.

  12. It’s a big Kamala day. She’s hitting every Blue Wall state, starting at 11:40am-ish with Liz Cheney in Chester County PA, a hotbed of Never Trump Republicans where Nikki Haley did best. I’ll post video links for each — MI 4pm-ish, WI 7pm-ish

  13. From the Times article Poobah posted:

    Court rulings have fortified those safeguards and found that denying treatment, including gender-affirming surgery, violates the Eighth Amendment’s prohibition against cruel and unusual punishment.

    Note – those would be federal court rulings since they deal with federal prison care and treatment.

  14. Elated I am as Penna swings towards Harris, but Nevada and North Carolina are long-gone.
    The sickening “she’s a shi&&y Vice President” and the comment about Arnie’s manhood size made me want to act like those anti-W folks who threw shoes at Bush43.  Now another lie is everywhere :  ” ‘they’ tried to kill him”.  “They” are Democrats is the underlying fiction.  Also, it was Trump’s administration who initiated the “gender care” in prisons that Trump has flipped the script on with 30,000 ads saying it is all from Kamala Harris.
    Trump is a rapist , adjudicated so in civil court, so of course no prison time there, but when he loses in 15 days, Boy Howdy! Jack Smith is going in deep and he will never let this degenerate bastard  go scot-free.  Cuffed, shackled, and hooded.  Off to prison.
    The Federal Correctional Institution, Otisville is a medium-security United States federal prison for male inmates located near Otisville, New York. It is operated by the Federal Bureau of Prisons, a division of the United States Department of Justice. Wikipedia
    Address: 2 Mile Drive, Otisville, NY 10963
    Good enough for Michael Cohen, perfect for Trump. 30 years ought to do it.

  19. https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/20/politics/elon-musk-voter-giveaway-legal-questions/index.html

    “…Saturday, tech billionaire Elon Musk announced that he will give away $1 million each day to registered voters in battleground states, immediately drawing scrutiny from election law experts who said the sweepstakes could violate laws against paying people to register.”

    “We want to try to get over a million, maybe 2 million voters in the battleground states to sign the petition in support of the First and Second Amendment. … We are going to be awarding $1 million randomly to people who have signed the petition, every day, from now until the election,” Musk said at a campaign event in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.”

    “The first million-dollar winner was named Saturday, with Musk handing a giant check to a Trump supporter at his event in Harrisburg, saying, “So anyway, you’re welcome.” He announced the second winner Sunday afternoon during an event in Pittsburgh, handing out another check on a stage adorned with big signs reading, “VOTE EARLY.”

    “When you start limiting prizes or giveaways to only registered voters or only people who have voted, that’s where bribery concerns arise,” said Derek Muller, an election law expert who teaches at Notre Dame Law School. “By limiting a giveaway only to registered voters, it looks like you’re giving cash for voter registration.”

    “Federal law makes it a crime for anyone who “pays or offers to pay or accepts payment either for registration to vote or for voting.” It’s punishable by up to five years in prison. After legal outcry over the weekend, Musk’s group tweaked some of their language around the sweepstakes.”

    “Most states make it a crime only to pay people to vote, said Muller, who is also a CNN contributor. He said it’s rare for federal prosecutors to bring election bribery cases, and that the Supreme Court has been narrowing the scope of bribery statutes.”

    LOCK. HIM. UP.

     
    ps – are the winners in trouble, too?   Are folks who signed up in jeopardy?

  22. BiD, yes.  The law reads that anyone who “pays or offers to pay or accepts payment either for registration to vote or for voting.” is liable under the statute. Enforcement is the issue – at the federal level there isn’t much if any of it.

  23. “or accepts payment”  
     
    (F)Elon isn’t going to pay their legal fees. 
     
    ps – One million is chump change.  One million a day is still chump change.   The South African would recoup one hundred-thousand times that if he can get the orange fascist and JD elected.  
    Where is JD, anyway?

  24. https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-illegal-drugs-use-ketamine-microdosing-risks-2024-1

    “The Journal reported that the 52-year-old had taken cocaine, LSD, ecstasy, and magic mushrooms over the years, including at parties, citing unnamed sources who said they’d witnessed his behavior or had knowledge of it. He gained widespread attention for smoking marijuana with Joe Rogan in 2018, and this past August he said he had a prescription for ketamine. The Journal said Musk had exhibited some “volatile” behavior at work that some associates linked to drug use.”

    “The Journal cited unnamed people close to Musk as saying that his drug use was “ongoing,” particularly ketamine. The publication reported in June 2023 that he microdoses the drug to treat depression and takes full doses at parties.”
     

    Matthew Perry had a doctor’s RX, too.

  30. https://www.techtimes.com/articles/307949/20241021/xs-new-terms-spark-outrage-your-tweets-will-train-ai-whether-you-like-it-not.htm
    “A new term in the terms of service is going to let X use any material posted by a user to train its artificial intelligence (AI) models. Everyone is worried, especially all the creative professionals, about what is going to be done with their work and personal lives.”
     

    “Where the terms of service now make patently clear is that by submitting content to the website, users license X to use any data submitted thereto on a worldwide, non-exclusive, royalty-free basis for purposes of training and, among other things, generative models. In short, using X to further AI technology could implicitly mean consenting to content.”

    “Fear for artistic creatives is that work may be uploaded into algorithms that may eventually replace human creativity in the future.”

    “There is also the fear that any specific information, for example, photos or sensitive details, will be harvested for usage within machine learning. In this regard, some X users have started deleting personal content, such as photos, from their profiles already.”

    Just delete your whole, danged account.

  32. “In Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina the two parties are roughly even, while Republicans are running about 10 points ahead”
     
    …say, again?  🧐 

  33. George Carlin noted the dumb part of the phenomenon. He said to think about how stupid the average person is and realize that half of the people are dumber than that. Probably a lot of overlap among the dumb, the racist, and the insane. I’m surprised it’s only half of the country.

  34. i’ve imagine and realized, still don’t get it, the guy is talking about dead people’s genitalia at memorial services for them 
     
    Putin imprisons, tortures, bombs, shells, murders, maims “WHITE” people
     
    they’re all so dumb!

    i live among them!!

    when in doubt, rock out

  36. “There is unrest in the forestTrouble with the treesFor the maples want more sunlightAnd the oaks ignore their pleas
    The trouble with the maples(And they’re quite convinced they’re right)They say the oaks are just too loftyAnd they grab up all the light
    But the oaks can’t help their feelingsIf they like the way they’re madeAnd they wonder why the maplesCan’t be happy in their shade
    There is trouble in the forestAnd the creatures all have fledAs the maples scream, “Oppression”And the oaks just shake their heads
    So the maples formed a unionAnd demanded equal rightsThey say, “The oaks are just too greedyWe will make them give us light”
    Now there’s no more oak oppressionFor they passed a noble lawAnd the trees are all kept equalBy hatchet, axe, and saw.”
     
    RUSH – The Trees

  37. ok i won’t lament “how is this race so close” everyday for the next 19 days, i promise, GotV
     
    might have to drop off the grid to mitigate anxiety, save my society, thx in advance ❤️

    15 days! 😨

  38. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/21/biden-white-house-birth-control-rules
    Millions of people with private health insurance would be able to pick up over-the-counter methods like condoms, the morning-after pill and birth control pills for free under a new rule the White House proposed on Monday.
    “The proposed rule we announce today would expand access to birth control at no additional cost for millions of consumers,” the health and human services secretary, Xavier Becerra, said in a statement. “Bottom line: women should have control over their personal health care decisions. And issuers and providers have an obligation to comply with the law.”
     
    “Federal mandates for private health insurance to cover contraceptive care were first introduced with the Affordable Care Act, which required plans to pick up the cost of FDA-approved birth control that had been prescribed by a doctor as a preventative service.”
    “The proposed rule would not impact those on Medicaid, the insurance program for the poorest Americans. States are largely left to design their own rules around Medicaid coverage for contraception, and few cover over-the-counter methods like Plan B or condoms.”
     
    “In a statement on Monday, Joe Biden said the proposed rule signaled the US president’s and Harris’s “commitment to expanding access to quality, affordable contraception”.
     

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