And here’s where it will take a massive blue wave to make a difference — the Senate.
- Democrats have 26 seats up, only 4 are in play
- GOP has just 9 seats up, 4 are in play
It’s all about the turn out model … As polls in these races come out over the next few weeks how much will pollsters factor in turnout of traditional non-voters who now seem energized? Underestimation will skew results toward Republicans, which might be correct, if these voters don’t show up after all.
(15 Oct 2018) Actor Alec Baldwin says voters should see the November 6th midterm elections as an opportunity to peacefully “overthrow the government under Donald Trump.” Baldwin spoke at a Democratic Party fundraising dinner in New Hampshire.
*
wapo:
Not long after Defense Secretary Jim Mattis took over at the Pentagon, he set out to transform the U.S. military into a better-equipped, deadlier force that would waste less money, deepen alliances around the world, and evolve to counter Russia and China.
But President Trump soon began throwing curveballs his way.
The president has demanded a space force, a ban on transgender troops, a military parade, a National Guard deployment at the border and other politically tinged initiatives far from Mattis’s list of priorities.
Trump has launched impromptu broadsides against U.S. allies, threatened war with North Korea and pressed unconventional ideas regarding military operations, leaving Mattis scrambling to comfort U.S. partners or stop hasty decisions in their infancy. Though he hasn’t sought it out, the Pentagon chief has earned a reputation as the “reassurer-in-chief.”
The result is less time for the retired Marine Corps general to focus on the agenda he set for himself.
Mattis’s ability to execute his vision will largely determine whether he leaves a lasting mark on the armed forces or becomes known as the defense chief who spent the bulk of his tenure protecting the military and its alliances and stanching the impulses of an erratic president.
How far Mattis can go with his plans will also depend on how long he manages to stay in his job in an administration beset by upheaval and firings. U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s resignation last week reignited speculation about whether Mattis would also exit soon.
In an interview with CBS News’s “60 Minutes” aired Sunday, Trump said he has a “very good relationship” with Mattis but that “it could be that he is” leaving, feeding speculation that the defense secretary could be out after the midterm elections.
“He may leave. I mean, at some point, everybody leaves,” said the president, who called Mattis “sort of a Democrat.”
[…continues…]
huffpo:
Attorney Michael Cohen, whose most famous former client is currently the president of the United States, is urging Americans to get out and vote.
The now-former lawyer for Donald Trump tweeted a message to his followers Sunday calling the 2018 midterm elections “the most important vote in our lifetime.”
Cohen, who will be sentenced in December for federal tax evasion and campaign finance violations that he pleaded guilty to back in August, might have insight into Trump that pushes him to root for his old boss’ opponents. At least that’s the implication coming from Cohen’s own lawyer, Lanny Davis.
“No one knows better than [Michael Cohen] why the midterm stakes are so important to America’s future,” Davis tweeted. “He is the holder of truth about [Trump].”
Cohen changed his party affiliation to Democratic on Thursday, but it’s doubtful that his participation will change the course of the midterm elections. Democrats are likely more interested in his participation in special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation.
Currently, the party needs to flip two seats to take back the U.S. Senate and 23 seats to gain control of the House of Representatives.
Alec Baldwin is NOT helping to keep Republican turnout low with that kind of crap.
He’s pretty full of himself to think that he can instigate Dem turnout.
Who does he think he is, Taylor Swift?
McCaskill running as a Trump-supporting, moderate Dem. Huh?
Seriously. Her ad shows her working with Trump.
McCaskill is in a dead heat election in a state SFB won by almost 20%. She can’t stand up as just wholesale obstructing SFB in Missouri and expect the new excited youth vote to overcome the independents who she’d lose by doing that. I suggest you look at her voting record before playing the purity card. fivethirtyeight has a complete list along with predicted/actual votes based on SFB’s victory margin in MO in 2016 (18.6%) – she has voted against SFB on almost all substantive measures before the Senate.
Poobah, I don’t follow this stuff on a granular level – I leave that to the RCPs and the 538s of the world – and I don’t like what I’m seeing with the Senate. RCP sees a 2 seat pickup for the repugs and 538 puts the chances of a dem pickup of control at 1 in 5 – 538 puts the chances of dem control of the house at 4 in 5. Of course there are 3 weeks left before the election, but SFB’s popularity is the highest it’s been since March, 2017 with a brief touch at this level in May, 2018. and he’s on the stump constantly – glad he’s paying so much attention to FL – not sure whether Scott is pissed at that or relieved.
And it is a good ad,
Pogo, I do think these pollsters are (understandably) underestimating the potential wave of traditional non-voters. Turnout models I’ve seen stick close to conventional midterm turnout. Can’t blame them for that, blue wave might be all talk, not show up, that’s why we call them non-voters. But this could be a phenomenon polls are missing.
Thanks RR for making good on your bet. Good solution splitting your TM donation 50/50 with Sean. Thanks. What a game, eh? More than 80 points combined!
Smart betting advice – don’t bet against Brady.
the must have been some game — the score sounds like there was no defense on either side
I don’t think the goopers have much enthusiasm on their side despite their lies after Kavanaugh (who will end up being censored by the courts for his injudicious temperament)
Craig… you’re welcomed… thanks for keeping this blog alive and thriving.
Jack… what a fun game! Your young quarterback, Mahomes, is a pleasure to watch play. Hope he has as many successful years as Brady has had.
KGC… both offenses were other worldly… the defenses did the best they could.
Alec Baldwin clearly said in that clip that we need to overthrow this government in an orderly fashion in the voting booth. That’s exactly what elections are about. The gop knows this and isn’t afraid of saying it and plenty more… no more sugar coating and political correctness from the Dems… the time to fight is NOW!
It was a good game. The Chief’s QB was impressive.
Ya know… any long time sports fan can tell you that in order to win a championship one must not play the game by trying not to lose. You must stay focused, aggressive, and play like you’ve already won the game. Or as sj keeps reminding us…. we are the majority…. act like it!
I did not see anything in the Baldwin clip that is objectionable. If anything, for Alec it was pretty restrained. A “vote to overthrow trump” message does not strike me as anything remotely as bad as what IMPOTUS is spewing at his campaign rallies for repugs. Baldwin backs his stance up with facts – something you do not see from our titular “president”.
Lotta voices out there……they need to ALL start hollerin’
when asked about the murder of the Saudi journalist — fat ass the golfing president said he wasn’t in the business of telling other people how to live their lives…perhaps the most stunning lie of all
T Jefferson would agree with Baldwin: “The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.”
so this would be fantastic — currently Steve King of Iowa may lose– no loss to Democracy there
Democrats protesting are a vicious mob
But people chanting Jews will not replace us are good people
One of the important things you learn when you visit the concentration camp sites in Germany is how many people it must have taken to run them. SFB is a total waste but he couldn’t do what he is doing on his own – the Goopers are his enablers so they can bankrupt America but line their own pockets
courier journal:
President Donald Trump didn’t pull any punches against a Democratic candidate and a military veteran running for Congress during a rally in Richmond, Kentucky, on Saturday night, labeling her an extremist.
“(Amy McGrath is) an extreme liberal chosen by Nancy Pelosi, Maxine Waters and the radical Democratic mob,” he said.
Trump was at Eastern Kentucky University to campaign for Kentucky Republican Andy Barr, who is challenging former Marine fighter pilot McGrath in a hotly contested congressional race for District 6.
“Amy supports a socialist takeover of your healthcare; she supports open borders; she needs the tax hikes to cover the through-the-roof garbage you want no part of,” Trump said. “She wants to decimate your now-thriving coal industry.”
In response to Trump’s comments, McGrath said: “Mr. President, you clearly don’t know me. Yet.”
[….continues…]
Democratic congressional candidate Amy McGrath’s (KY-6) sixth television ad of the general election
Jack,
Glad to hear your wife is home and hopefully on the mend.
I wore a feeding tube for about eight months. For two months it was my only source of nutrition. Maintaining them is not too hard, but at the time my wife had to do it for me. She was a great nurse. We are currently using home health, and while the services they offer are very useful they are spotty often times, and that can be very frustrating . Fervently hope that you can settle into a routine that works for you and your wife. You are in my thoughts.
and on stump with biden the other day according to courier journal:
McGrath never mentioned Barr by name during her brief remarks to supporters. She instead played up how her campaign has avoided negative advertisements.
“It’s easier to demonize your opponent, I have chosen not to do that,” McGrath said. “I have not gotten in the mud and responded in kind. I trust the voters to see through this sad, worn out tactic.”
The Wesleyan Media Project, which analyzes political ads, has said positive ads made up nearly 90 percent of Democrats ads, while about 31 percent of Republicans ads are positive in this race.
Biden, who’s behaving as if he plans to run for president in 2020, did his best to capture key voters in the rural counties of the district where Democrats outnumber Republicans but voted for Trump and Barr overwhelmingly in 2016.
McGrath told the audience that she pledged her campaign would go beyond Democratic strongholds in Frankfort and Lexington. She said she has a presence in each of the district’s 19 counties.
“I hope you think I’ve walked the walk,” McGrath said.
McGrath, who flew 89 combat missions, is running a campaign that is emphasizing her military record, her family and willingness to work across party lines. She told the audience that bipartisanship starts in her home with her husband, Eric, who is a Republican.
“My husband and I, we are not Democrat or Republican first. We are Americans first,” she said in a line that drew sustained cheers.
The McGrath’s campaign messaging is working on voters like Diana Mills, who is retired and from Richmond.
“I don’t like dirty politics and all the mudslinging that’s going on,” she said.
Mills said Biden resonates in this part of the state because of his compassion and empathy.
Ralph Crawford, a retired coal miner from Nicholas, said, “If she gets elected she just won’t vote party lines. She’ll vote with Trump on some things and against him on some things.
wapo:
Warren releases DNA test suggesting distant Native American ancestor
[…]
Trump has frequently mocked Warren’s claims about her heritage, calling her “Pocahontas.” During a freewheeling phone interview with Fox News last week, he asserted that the senator “faked her heritage,” adding: “I have more Indian blood in me than her, and I have none.”
At a July political rally in Montana, Trump offered to donate $1 million to Warren if she took a DNA test “and it shows you’re an Indian.”
In a tweet Monday morning, Warren reminded Trump of that promise and chose a charity.
“Please send the check to the National Indigenous Women’s Resource Center,” she wrote, describing the organization as “a nonprofit working to protect Native women from violence.”
Asked about his pledge Monday, Trump denied to reporters having made it.
“I didn’t say that. You better read it again,” Trump said as he left the White House en route to Florida to view hurricane damage.
At the July rally, Trump said, “I’m going to get one of those little [DNA testing] kits and in the middle of the [presidential] debate, when she proclaims she’s of Indian heritage.
“And we will say, ‘I will give you a million dollars, paid for by Trump, to your favorite charity, if you take the test and it shows you’re an Indian.’ And we’ll see what she does. I have a feeling she will say no, but we will hold it for the debates.”
After Trump spoke to reporters, Warren tweeted: “Having some memory problems, @realDonaldTrump? Should we call for a doctor?”
That timing in Bustamante’s DNA report fits Warren’s family lore, passed down during her Oklahoma upbringing, that her great-great-great-grandmother, O.C. Sarah Smith, was at least partially Native American, the Globe reported.
[…continues…]
It is nice to be able to refer to Warren as one of my aunts.
In re the case of Sen Tina Smith : MN is not ‘leaning Dem’ in this race. It is ‘safe Dem’. Her challenger is now on record, comparing Mrs Obama to a chimpanzee.
karin housley’s own district (michele bachmann’s) is the only one where racist dog whistling might possibly help. Btw, Housley’s husband is the ex-hockey player, now coach at Buffalo Sabres. They are a pollution on the banks of the St Croix River at St Mary’s Point. karin is a real estate peddler and state senator.
SC heating up…….D. Joe Cunningham, he could be strong.
R……Katie Arrington Youngish lady. Think trump, all the way down. She looks kind of Ill-tempered.
can we now add “welcher” as in welch on a bet to the list?
bully
serial adulterer
pathological liar
sociopathic narcissist
multi-bankrupt deadbeat
the guardian: Humanity is ‘cutting down the tree of life’, warn scientists
Humanity’s ongoing annihilation of wildlife is cutting down the tree of life, including the branch we are sitting on, according to a stark new analysis.
More than 300 different mammal species have been eradicated by human activities. The new research calculates the total unique evolutionary history that has been lost as a result at a startling 2.5bn years.
Furthermore, even if the destruction of wild areas, poaching and pollution were ended within 50 years and extinction rates fell back to natural levels, it would still take 5-7 million years for the natural world to recover.
Many scientists think a sixth mass extinction of life on Earth has begun, propelled by human destruction of wildlife, and 83% of wild mammals have already gone. The new work puts this in the context of the evolution and extinction of species that occurred for billions of years before modern humans arrived.
“We are doing something that will last millions of years beyond us,” said Matt Davis at Aarhus University in Denmark, who led the new research. “It shows the severity of what we are in right now. We’re entering what could be an extinction on the scale of what killed the dinosaurs.
“That is pretty scary. We are starting to cut down the whole tree [of life], including the branch we are sitting on right now.” Ecosystems around the world have already been significantly affected by the extermination of big animals such as mammoths, he said.
[….continues…]
XR, really? Comparing Michelle to a chimpanzee? Haven’t we seen this before? Did it work then? Think it’ll work now? JesusHChrist.
Mr Pogo, housley compared Mrs Obama to a chimp in 2009. The captured emails have only recently come to light. My guess : Tina Smith will win by 12% or better.
That’s ok…..I compare republicans to Pigs all the time…….
NEW THREAD