— George Jetson
By Blue Bronc, a Trail Mix Contributor
What is the future of countries which have moved beyond the industrial age and into the information age? A world where increasing population is looked at as abnormal as there is no need for millions of unskilled or trade skilled workers? Lands where dangerous and dirty jobs are not performed by humans, but by highly specialized machines, or robots? Like it or not we are already in that world.
Growing up in Detroit a constant joke was “he is going to end up in the paint room” when someone who dropped out of high school future was talked about. We all knew that the paint room was where auto bodies were painted on the assembly lines. It was unhealthy and known to cause serious brain damage from the fumes of the paint. It was were those who were unskilled were hired, and the paint rooms had plenty of turnover as most failed there and ended up dying young.
The paint rooms are now the home of extremely high technology paints and job specific robots. People are not needed there anymore. The cost of health care is cut to almost nothing as there are no more brain damaged former paint room employees. The products are almost uniformly perfect, paint flaws are a rare exception now. And, robots do not strike. Okay, United Auto Workers rarely strike anymore either.
How about on the farm? American farms are wonderfully productive. Tremendous output. One farmer driving a huge tractor does the work of dozens. Farms are huge corporate endeavors. Harvest requires more truck drivers to haul the corn or hay or soybeans than driving the combines. The exceptions are the tender crops, lettuce, tomatoes, strawberries. Those are picked by hand, but the research is always trying to find a machine to replace the immigrants who toil right now.
Retail? Your computer does not complain that you are looking at too many shirts. In store, the so called “brick and mortar” locations, cut costs with reduced inventories, try finding half sizes in shoes, and fewer staff, checkout is one register at a door, not in every department. The competition is high and can be mean. Specialty stores are fun to walk through, but you know the price is always better online. Do you purchase something just to help the store owner stay in business?
Chinese steel is how America is built now. There are a few steel producers in the U.S. still making the hard stuff. But, they produce mostly high tech steel for special use. Coal is dirty, making steel is dirty and dangerous. I do remember back when the steel the Chinese made was terrible. Products frequently broke, and then the Chinese imported American steel makers and the output increased in quality. There are still many articles of low quality, but those are considered use and dispose of anyway.
I used to think bulky and heavy household goods could not be profitable if made outside the U.S. Toilets for instance. The products are made of clay, fired and glazed. Cheap. No need for skilled labor with high wages. Then I saw products from Chile or Argentina cheaper than American made. Unless they were being dumped in the U.S., dumping means selling cheaper than cost with the difference made up by the government, something else was going on as I expected those countries to have higher labor costs than China.
Electronics might have the parts made in the U.S. and the final product assembled outside of the U.S. Although an assembly line is used, it is not staffed by robots, but by humans. One of the stories floating around last year was an entrepreneur who was going to make a new electronics assembly plant in an eastern state (Ohio maybe), he had hesitation because there was no “skilled” labor available. Please forgive me for rolling my eyes. Training might take several months, my electronics training was enhanced by camera repair training, working with very tiny and extremely delicate parts, declining to train his work force was a laugher.
So, where are we in 2017 America? A land of thinkers? A land of doers? A place where education is rote and dictated by Congress. No one works here?
Not exactly. Factory output is high. Auto plants are pouring out cars and trucks too. American ports are expanding, both for imports and exports. What has changed is the drop out of high school and get a middle class job at the auto plant or work on a farm. Today’s auto and truck mechanics are more than wrench wranglers. They need to use high tech tools on high tech machines. They use logic in troubleshooting in ways their fathers and grandfathers never did. Of course there is the down fall of relying on machines and computers to do work. Someone walks in with an old marine alternator and asks the counter clerk to test it. The counter clerk has no clue what to do because the part is not in the computer database and the failsafe, foolproof tester cannot be made to work without the database. That is due to the dumbing of sales. No more middle class auto clerks, lowest wages and no need to know anything about vehicles because the computer knows it all. (I digress)
America is not failing. America is great. A lot of low input people bought the Republican lies and now we have a con artist ready to take over the reins.
Take back America is what we Dems talked about in 2007. It is time to dust that slogan off and start yelling it again.
More Posts by Blue Bronc
Nit Pick department of Trailmix thinks “your” should be “you” … 🙂
Great post BB
People don’t really want those jobs back. They just want A job
Excellent Post, blue bronc. The Republicans trade on fear because they have nothing else. I had no need to Make America Great Again because it never ceased to be. (Actually I consider that slogan unpatriotic & treasonous in a way.)
This may sound awful but my Mother, born in 1920, said the thing that got this country out of the Depression doldrums was War. Jobs everywhere! Military, munitions (my Gram filled explosive shells with powder), steel mills, this-a-mill, everywhere a mill-mill. Her words stay with me, especially when I vote, especially this year.
Thanks Jamie, fixed. I just realized “You’re Fired” was Mr. Spacely’s famous line.
A reminder that today is Giving Tuesday. Stuff like this is why America Is Great ✔
SJ, your mom was right.
Blue Bronc, great post. Not sure this will open (WSJ, and I don’t have an account) but the headline tells the tale. US GDP has been rising.
And GNP has done well, rising from $1.45T following the Bush financial collapse to $1.795T last quarter. And oddly enough, manufacturing has done well, moving from $1.68T to $2.17T over that period. I don’t recall hearing that during the presidential campaign. What I heard is how badly we are doing.
Chart from long Frank Luntz post today on same subject:
Metropolitan Policy Program Senior Fellow Mark Muro also examined this trend in a recent post, pointing out that the total inflation-adjusted output of the U.S. manufacturing sector is actually higher today than it has ever been, even though the sector’s employment growth has remained relatively stagnant.
The mistake many people make re: manufacturing is equating the number of jobs in the sector as the measure of the sector’s success, which ignores productivity gains as a result of mechanization, robotics, etc. That does not help the displaced worker who is a victim of the sector’s success.
Looking at the chart, it appears that there is an inflection point in the employment plot every time a Republican Administration enters and then a corrective inflection to a gradually increasing trend when Democrats once again take over.
As things stand now, we have too many people chasing too few jobs. I need not explain what that means so far as wages are concerned. I recall, just as we were readying to depart for Vietnam in 1965, that we would no longer have training or inspections on Saturday mornings–our work week was reduced from 44 to 40 hours a week. Obviously that didn’t apply when deployed. Now, the germane question is, what will happen if we go to a four day work week?
Will industrial jobs be moved overseas? What if we give U.S. corporations a tax break if they repatriate their off-shore accounts and invest them here? What if we make the service industry standard a four-day week while leaving industry on a five? Should we set a maximum number of employment hours per household? Should we encourage old people to move to Ecuador?
I say, we should start by revitalizing the Democratic Party.
Is it just me or has the site been loading very slowly over the past couple of weeks? Is it traffic, settings, or is it my computer & server?
Flatus, I hear ya, but the problem is one that is reflected in Walmart’s answer to the ACA – dropping to a 32 hour week removes workers from protections and benefits that employers must provide, normally only to workers at 37.5 hours/week or more.
Flatus, … and we know that a pugn congress and president will never impose upon employers the requirement that they extend those benefits and protections to additional workers.
so a lot of the south is on fire I’m pretty sure it’s because they voted for Trump
Trump said he wouldn’t destroy or change medicare and social security oh nevermind
and Elaine Chou right like Mitch McConnell can’t be bribed
le’s have some hearings
Pogo, with this morning”s appointments, Trump has committed to the demise of the ACA. “Let them eat cake”
My guess is all they have to do to gut ACA is remove the individual mandate, and insurance companies will pull out, that was the main reason they opted in
Pogo, haven’t noticed probs on my end. Others having trouble? — what device, browser, operating system are you using?
BlueB… excellent piece! LOVE your new typewriter.
Yup… those manufacturing jobs have left the building…. and they ain’t coming back. I don’t know what the answers are…. when confronted with the need for more education, some think that’s snooty. Willful ignorance…. oughta get one far.
Yes… this site has been loading slowly for several weeks for me too. On a Mac… or my iPad… same thing. Using Safari.
BTW… not having trouble with any other site… just this one.
Same OS as always. XP pro. New phone – I’ll see about it. Let’s see. ..
Editor is really sluggish. On phone & computer
new wordpress platform and theme for 2017 coming next week, let’s see if that helps
re sluggish trail: it’s notably slower when we (and i’m the prime perp of that evil) have a lot of videos posted. otherwise it’s as it’s always been for me.
as for Obamacare/aca, in essence they’ll just change the name. sure they’ll make a great show of repeal but as the twit said it will simultaneously be substituted with a remake… in other words, tweaked (in favor of big inshuras and big pharma to be sure) and renamed
twit today threatens flag burners with loss of citizenship. perhaps he should include those supporters of his who sport shorts, bikinis, beer cozies made with the flag… just as disrespectful to sit your fat bum on and sip suds from and ogle lustfully at….
see United States Code Title 4 Chapter 1 — The Flag at ushistory
section 8d
The flag should never be used as wearing apparel, bedding, or drapery. It should never be festooned, drawn back, nor up, in folds, but always allowed to fall free. Bunting of blue, white, and red, always arranged with the blue above, the white in the middle, and the red below, should be used for covering a speaker’s desk, draping the front of the platform, and for decoration in general.
?ko and gq fishing for a lawsuit?
Jobs are like anything else: Supply and Demand. We have way too many people who really like things such as a roof over their heads and food on the table. We have too few jobs that provide those luxuries. It can happen in any stage in a society’s development.
It took the Bubonic Plague to put an end to barons and serfs and bring about the guilds. The great migrations to settle an empty world with all the dangers involved, wars and rampant diseases held population at less than one billion until 1850 when use of fossil fuels, medical advances and various labor saving advances kicked the birthrate in high gear in a way that wars, disease and famines could no longer overcome.
Somewhere around 2050 if we don’t have a massive die off a la mushroom cloud or previously undisturbed virus, we will hit 9 billion. That is well within the life expectance of most of the trail’s children and grandchildren. In the process, there is a good chance that they may only see whales, gorillas, elephants, and Monarch Butterflies in some zoo.
And we now have an administration that doesn’t believe in climate change and thinks birth control is probably a sin of some sort. Of course if they get rid of the ACA, Medicare, and Social Security, Darwin’s laws might solve the problem.
Removed recent comments scroll from side bar, see if that helps page speed. It’s a bit of a resource hog
also removed recent posts, only other dynamic widget on the side bar. Let me know if page speed any better.
The refresh is now faster over here.
Today is Louisa May Alcott’s birthday. Since that lady raised many of us rather independent type females, may I recommend the Tumbler Suck My Alcott for silliness and this nice on line biography Louisa May Alcott
Most people name Little Women, but my favorites are Eight Cousins and its sequel Rose In Bloom https://smile.amazon.com/Eight-Cousins-Classics-Louisa-Alcott-ebook/dp/B00WH0IF76/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1480448299&sr=1-2&keywords=eight+cousins
So Mika B. caught on camera entering Trump Tower (surprise.) Seems folks with any journalistic integrity a) wouldn’t go & b) probably wouldn’t be invited in the first place. *Cough, Cough*
some other tinkering I could try on the backend but we’ve got our annual word press overhaul next week, will wait for that before any more changes, perhaps install a cache plugin for more speed.
Thanks, Craig… the changes you’ve made has helped. Also, IMO, the site looks cleaner without the recent comments scroll.
sjwny, mika? here’s daily beast today:
There was a time when Mika Brzezinski served as the liberal voice of reason to Joe Scarborough’s conservative blowhard on MSNBC’s Morning Joe. But somewhere during Donald Trump’s unlikely journey to the presidency, that seemingly changed.
Nowhere was Brzezinski’s apparent change of political heart more apparent than during a rant she delivered against Massachusetts Democrat Elizabeth Warren Tuesday morning.
[….]
It was this sentiment, expressed on the floor of the Senate on Monday, that had Brzezinski up in arms Tuesday morning. “The majority of voters supported Democratic Senate candidates over Republican ones, and the majority supported a Democratic presidential candidate over a Republican one,” Warren said, citing the popular vote totals. “The American people didn’t give Democrats majority support so we can come back to Washington and play dead. They didn’t send us here to whimper, whine, or grovel.”
That speech, clearly designed to reinvigorate a demoralized Democratic base, caused Brzezinski to deliver a heavy sigh on Morning Joe. “I’ve got to tell you, I love her, and I am getting tired of this act,” she said, urging Warren to move away from “anger” and start sounding more “inclusive” with her rhetoric.
“She is sounding like the people she is accusing of as being exclusive,” Brzezinski continued. “I mean, she’s just got to stop, I’m sorry, it’s getting exhausting.” She went on to describe Warren’s tone as “shrill,” “unmeasured” and “almost unhinged.”
“At some point we have to look at what happened and look at the people we lost along the way, and those are the people Elizabeth Warren has been fighting for for decades,” she added. “Those are the people that have been left out because of a rigged system. Those were her people and she is leaving them out of the conversation, and it doesn’t make sense to me.”
[….]
There was a time when Brzezinski might have been a steadfast supporter of Warren’s principled opposition to Trump. But apparently that time has passed.
And yet just as she is turning on Warren, she may be back in Trump’s good graces. Less than an hour after Morning Joe ended its broadcast Tuesday, Brzezinski was spotted entering Trump Tower for an unspecified meeting.
Bubonic plague, the disappearance of the frontier in Europe, and the popularization of labor saving devices such as looms, wind and water driven grind stones and saws, and easy credit made available through the spread of paper indulgences all created the inflation that eroded feudalism and grew cities. Oh yes, and the 30 Years War.
Garrison Keillor: Maybe a Trump presidency is what God intended
So many Trumpists have written in since the election, and I am grateful for their interest and also impressed by the sheer variety of their profanity. I never learned to swear that well because by the time my mother died, at 97, it was too late for me to learn. I gather from the letters that these people’s lives were devastated by the advent of gay marriage, political correctness, the threat of gun control and the arrogance of liberals, and now a champion rises from Fifth Avenue and 56th Street, and God forbid that any dog should bark when he speaks or any pigeon drop white matter on his limousine.
What the letter-writers don’t grasp is that cursing is highly effective in person — someone kicks his car in rage, forgetting he’s wearing flip-flops, and flames pour from his mouth, and it’s impressive. But you see it in print, and it’s just ugly. It makes you pity the writer’s wife.….
[Keillor goes on from there to further flights of fancy which you might enjoy]
Maybe Mika just went in to try on a new hat. Maybe she’s on a kissingerian mission to bring Warren and the deadbeat bigot together. snicker.
Like Santa, patd, I’m keeping a List & checking it twice (x infinity). Gonna find out who’s naughty & nice re: journalistic integrity. So far lotsa coal for the “face” media types; candy & oranges pending for the “ink” boys & girls.
wapo editorial board:
IT’S NOT easy to run afoul of two constitutional amendments in 140 characters. Whether he realizes it or, more likely, not, President-elect Donald Trump did so in this Twitter outburst Tuesday: “Nobody should be allowed to burn the American flag — if they do, there must be consequences — perhaps loss of citizenship or year in jail!” The Supreme Court ruled in 1989 that the First Amendment protects burning the flag in protest. The high court ruled in 1967 that the 14th Amendment not only grants U.S. citizenship to “all persons born or naturalized” in this country; it also forbids the government from taking citizenship away from them.
[….]
But burning-banners’ arguments ultimately founder on the rock of the First Amendment, which, if it means anything, means that the people have the right to express their views through the widest possible range of nonviolent means, even — or, perhaps, especially — those views that offend most deeply. It is ironic that a man elected on a platform of opposition to hypersensitive “political correctness” would embrace a flag-burning ban. Another irony: among those who understood the democratic necessity of protecting even the most unpopular expression was Justice Antonin Scalia, whom Mr. Trump purports to admire, and whose successor he will soon nominate. Many fellow conservatives disliked it, but Scalia often cited his vote to protect flag-burning as an example of how the Constitution limited his power, and that of all other government officials, to stamp out ideas they personally despised.
Patd
Wonderful Garrison Keillor, but if that is God’s intention then he must be both truly unmerciful and totally pissed at the US.
If the presidential election showed anything at all, it was that 40% of Dems, and 46% of everyone else, are sick of democratic leadership council-ism. That movement threw blue collars under the bus in order to entice more ‘centrist’ ‘middle class’ (hedge fund managers and mortgage bundlers) to the Dem cause (campaign coffers).
It’s time for a change.
Ryan v ryan will make a great tv show !
I love the Edit Button. If I ever get pregnant I’ll name the baby after it.
more than 100 days since a Trump press conference.
gotta sleep on it, but think I’m done giving Trump a chance. His lie about illegals fueling Hillary’s pop vote lead more than I can bear.
On the Underwood Deluxe the back one space key is very handy for presenting either a hole in the word (typing muscles are in training) or a character which becomes a blob as Miss Undy fails to erase the offending character prior to the new character slug from striking the ribbon into the paper. The importance of getting back to a typewriter is something I had to acknowledge and doing so has made a good writing feeling even better. It has kicked me out of writer’s block into rewriting Red Line to Shady Grove.
Today’s news is the arrival of two brand new, not new old stock, ribbons. Within an hour my fingers will whirl and letters will appear on paper and I will hold the resulting work to the window for all to see. Very strange to create a physical output and not have to be concerned with a power failure before saving.
Today was fun. I did a presentation to another agency about the military and being transgender. With the downer ending that the only protections in federal employment I have are two executive orders from Obama. All the floater has to do is rescind those and many LGBT people can suffer.
The floater is putting together the dream team of anti-America white men every created. Even more so than what the VI put together. Well. Maybe – maybe not. What I am waiting to hear is how the House and Senate R’s buy into destroying their voters lives. It was a good move to hire the incompetent Cho. Of course divorce might happen.
“Edit Button” sounds like any character played by Edna May Oliver.
Edit Button takes no prisoners, suffers no fools
Stands her ground, never losing her cool.
With an eyebrow arched & spunk of a kitten, she takes all lickins & keeps on tickin.
When twilight descends over the land, she bids Goodnight to Pop xrepublican:
“Early to bed, early to rise, early to call out Republican lies.”
thanks to Pogo for flagging the page build issue. All, please let me know when you have troubles. Can’t fix what I don’t know about.
HOUSEKEEPING: I will be overhauling the site on Dec. 6, clearing out some old code and installing updated security measures, could be some temporary glitches.
What if brave Journalists stopped using the name of the President Elect? Refused to mention it like some reporters do re: Mass Murderers & those who are mentally ill. The man fits the latter, so this would be within the bounds of propriety.
Catching up on comments from yesterday…
KGC: Thanks for the info on Tim Ryan. I had no idea that he was the one who wrote The Real Food Revolution! I will be keeping my eye on that boy now LOL! I may have mentioned before I’m a big fan of real food! Unfortunately that means a lot of cooking and a lot of dish washing :/ But my health is great 😀
Jamie: Congrats on #4! Hope little miss Miranda Ellen is doing well.
Pogo: Watched Race a few months ago. Sudeikis totally surprised me! I keep meaning to re-watch the old TV movie The Jesse Owens Story, but haven’t got around to it. I remember that I liked it when it was new so it would be fun to compare them now.
here & now
BB; Love your post! I never liked that stupid Make America Great Again slogan and it really wasn’t even what he meant. We sure have come a long way since the days of the 5&10 and all the variations on the “paint room” theme. We had a lot of factories in my area and HS dropouts could always find entry level low wage jobs there. Some eventually worked their way up the ladder and made a good career for themselves too. We do rely so much on technology now. My son and I were talking about that recently. What will we do when that em pulse/solar flair or whatever tech killer comes along? The likes of trump certainly wouldn’t have a clue on how to deal with it. OH GOD I CAN’T TWEET! 🙂
sj: “A reminder that today is Giving Tuesday. Stuff like this is why America Is Great” Yes!!!!!!! Also I hate to say, but your mother is right. I remember someone years ago saying “If you want more jobs, start a war”
Flatus: You hit the nail on the head-Too many people for too few jobs. Nobody talks anymore about the population issue. As long as we keep producing more people there will always be too few jobs. (edit: just saw that Jamie is on my wavelength re population)
Craig: I think your removal of scrolling widgets is a good thing for enhancing site performance 🙂 Also, Hallelujah and Amen…I Saw The Light is playing in my head. (Giving trump a chance is like letting one cockroach move into your kitchen!)
Pat: Garrison Keillor and Keith Olberman are my heroes! I wish everyone would tell it like it is. The only trouble with Keillor is that he’s a bit tongue in cheek so most trump supporters won’t even understand what he’s saying! They should have no problem understanding Keith, however LOL!
Granny, it is very difficult for me to reject the lawful choice our Constitution provides. To do so dishonors our process. Not an easy decision. But in this case I do fear the voters have made a horrible mistake.
I don’t think the national media can save us. Trump continues to undercut the credibility of the national media with his supporters,
But I think local media still can have impact. Kind of like everyone hates congress but likes their own member of congress.
Chuck Todd trying to make himself seem heroic but whining about the media’s failure to cover Trump appropriately
while roly poly Jason Miller is a guest on MSNBC shows spreading Trump bullshit with not a challenge in sight.
me thinks the baby boomers must rise again, one last time
For $1 million and up, inaugural donors will get ‘candlelight dinner’ with Trump and other access
Dinner with Donny. The hypocrisy pile oozes again.
Chuck Todd … You have to be kidding. MSNBC was a non stop Hillary bashing machine. It’s a little late now to moan over the deal they made with the devil by selling their souls for ratings dollars.
To our friends who live in the DC area: are you worried about what may happen during the inaugural week? Seriously, activities could redefine ugly concerning protests, marches, etc. Always seems the innocent bystanders get the worst of these things.
Granny
My son took up blacksmithing in order to enjoy pioneer recreations at Fort Vancouver when he was stationed there while in the Army and has continued participating while picking up other basic skills that are being lost by so many who would fall apart in the absence of technology. The idea of those disappearing skills always reminds me of one of my favorite Heinlein quotes.
msnbc – I refuse to capitalize that which employs those Mr Olbermann referred to as “junior petite.” They’ll get cable $ no matter what slop they air or whatever crud claims a paycheck whether Democrat or Republican inhabits the White House. We do have the power to not watch, however, & that some actually do mystifies me. Step away from the TV. Save your soul & integrity.
meanwhile there is no organized opposition
BTW the NHK World News out of Japan in English is a very interesting alternative to the brain dead drone of @CNN & @MSNBC
Craig,
The GOP nominated and the voters in a very few states elected a boorish ignorant clown that I wouldn’t invite to dinner much less to run a country. Unfortunately he is installing his rowdy friends who are swilling the booze and are about to have a call the police fight on the front lawn.
We could have had decent, moderate, intelligent if somewhat flawed gracious guest, but she was run down by the headbangers in the mosh pit, and I don’t want them coming to dinner either.
The drumpf supporters have been played like fiddles in T flat. And we have to suffer the out of tune symphony. Goddammit.
there is no constitutional right to burn or destroy someone else’s flag, that’s just actionable property damage
Sj, I now watch espn in the morning and all sorts of bullshit in the evening. I will occasionally watch Chris Matthews, but aside from that, no MSNBC for me. I’m considering CNN. If drumpf doesn’t like it there must be something there.
Poobah, was there a screen build issue?
And yes, you are correct about burning other people’s flags. No problem burning your own of course.
Craig: I hear you. I too have always honored our Democratic process but in this case the process was hijacked and there was nobody with enough clout to cry foul! Now we have a lunatic about to have access to nuclear power, so process be damned. As Keith has noted, even Pence is a better choice than a mentally unstable manchild. And his idea about the 25th amendment could be considered part of the process so there’s that. Yes, we must rise #resist
Jamie: I could probably do about half of those things, most especially I can cook a damn tasty meal even on a fire if necessary 😀
Pogo: Ironically, I think the most violent protests are going to come from trump’s own half wit, gun toting, racist supporters if he keeps backpedaling on his campaign rhetoric.
Granny, here’s hoping you’re correct. Of course they will have to figure out that they were duped on the draining the swamp thing. He is doing just the opposite.
Of course, those were the same people who didn’t realize that their country was already great. So I don’t have high hopes for them figuring out anything LOL!
Make America Gripe Again !