The most disturbing news these days for Hill camp is that a multi-million dollar ad buy in Florida utterly failed ($1 million per week in Orlando market, their biggest buy nationwide). Despite the saturation of air waves, amid no ads aired by Trump forces, Clinton’s numbers in the state actually faltered. This is exactly what Trump’s GOP foes discovered in the party’s primary races — attack ads don’t hurt him, no matter how much is spent.
They have budgeted $158 million for battleground state TV ads and just learned in their first test run they’re worthless. Can’t imagine the heads rolling in Brooklyn.
ads aren’t the only things falling on deaf tv ears. as predicted, coverage of her “house divided” speech only focused on what she said about the dangerous don and nothing about her calls for civility, police/racial peace and many progressive programs etc…..oh well…. [disappointed charlie brown sigh here]
Bern proved that outspending your opponent does not add to votes, but you are quoting one poll…others have her up in Florida. From RealClearPolitics/Florida.
This is the poll I am fascinated with…Trump gets 0% of the Black vote in Pennsylvania and Ohio.
If only white men come out to vote in November, Trump will win. Now watch how the pugs try to make that a reality.
It’s the economy, Stupid. Clinton has to push the proposition that the big economic payoff should go to families, not B!LL!ONA!RE$, and that she’ll see to it that it does.
Craig, if you remember, I predicted that HRC would have problems in 2008 because of the money she spent on her 2006 Senate reelection bid ($50 million+) to win 65% of the vote. She could have gotten that vote percentage spending $0.
Because your brethren in the media have anointed Trump as the cause celebre, HRC would be better served using the money on charitable contributions instead of ads. She isn’t probably incapable of doing it but she needs to run a strong positive campaign the rest of the way to provide the startling contrast to Trump. I think as it gets close, his media constituency will abandon Trump and her numbers will swing hard to her late.
Hi, Bear
Personally, I have low tolerance for broadcast political advertising, and zero tolerance for adverts that ring my phone.
In my experience, if it can be done, meet and greets with food have the biggest supportive return. This, in the case of a national campaign, could be through actively (financially) supporting down-ballot candidates and using their ability to proxy for the headliner in their local communities. She could buy a lot of hotdogs and punch for $100M plus gain the real support of down-balloters for her candidacy.
PATD, from the last thread, no I’m not alone. Lawyers who believe the Bill of Rights and subsequent amendments granting right we believe are individual rights know very well the effect teh Supreme Court has on those rights by their actin or inaction when confronted with state laws and challenges to state action (and to a lesser extent, federal action) that arguably violate or restrict those rights.Simplistic comments dismissing the import of SCOTUS appointments are IMHO just that – simplistic. They certainly show a lack of understanding of the federal judiciary and the impact of federal decisions on our constitutional rights.
And to the thread topic. The poll results we saw from yesterday do not surprise me. Hillary spent millions to be followed by Comey being looped by the cable newsers and his comments spun. What’s a poor candidate to do when every critical word about her is amplified and repeated ad nauseum? That will have a serious impact in the media and on the voters. WE’ll see how this all plays out after the conventions when the race actually gets hot and heavy.
Blonde, she’s only up in the older FL polls (june), trending down since.
Bear, it’s a tough call. Can’t blame them for not wanting to do a Dukakis and ignore Trump’s attacks. But yep, gotta wonder about backlash, and as PatD notes it’s only her Trump insults that lead the coverage.
Flatus, good idea about diverting more money to down ballot candidates as pseudo-surrogates.
Bear, where ya been bruddah? Good comment by the way.
Here’s the 538 article I tried to post last night. (That’s been revised to 67.2 and 32.8 this morning)
The polls yesterday are skewed by the Rasmussen poll showing drumpf with a 7 point advantage. Rasmussen gets a C+ rating at 538 and is skewed R by 2 points in general. Rely on them at your peril.
here’s their new ad, reportedly at $500,000 a day in battleground states..
It’s beyond weird, not only isn’t Trump spending any money on ads, he apparently still has no real organization in the states:
boss, beautiful ad. too bad there will be those who will grump that she’s exploiting children yet ignore that he exploits his own workers, veterans, women… his own party.
xr. she did in that speech that’s been ignored push programs where “payoffs should go to families, not B!LL!ONA!RE$” but no one wants to listen to boring speeches anymore, they just want to be entertained and dazzled by prancing, primping pimps.
craig, he doesn’t have to, the media is footing the bill. they even have a hahvahd study that proves it according to boston globe. it’s titled: News Coverage of the 2016 Presidential Primaries: Horse Race Reporting Has Consequences done by the shorenstein center.
Angus King says he’ll vote for Hillary Clinton
“I’ve got to vote for Hillary Clinton,” the independent senator from Maine told CNN’s Chris Cuomo on “New Day.” “I just can’t in good conscience put someone in that airplane whose coolness and patience and judgment I have doubts about.”
King, the sole remaining senator who usually caucuses with Democrats who had not yet endorsed Clinton, said his support came after boarding the “Doomsday Plane,” the airplane that would provide command and control in the case of a nuclear attack.
“When I got off the plane, my knees were a little weak with that realization how much power is in this one person. And then I thought about Donald Trump,” he said. “And it’s a question of judgment and temperament and this guy has not demonstrated to me the kind of coolness that you need in that situation.”
Hmm, WaPo reporting Mika’s divorce and reports on a relationship between her and Joe.
politico also quotes the good senator king:
The president would likely have to make a split decision while being evacuated in a helicopter when making that decision, King remarked, adding that he also thought about Clinton’s composure during her testimony during the House Benghazi Committee’s 11-hour hearing last October.
“Never lost her temper, never lost her cool, never lost her patience, answered every question, was very solid, and I think most people, even people who were opposed to her, felt that was an amazing performance,” King continued. “That’s as good as you’re going to get as a photograph of somebody making decisions under pressure. Putting those two things together and realizing the incredible importance of the presidency, particularly in foreign policy, where as you and I have talked about, Congress is largely abdicated, I got to vote for Hillary Clinton. I just can’t in good conscience put somebody in that airplane whose coolness and sort of patience and judgment I have doubts about.”
flatus, politics makes strange bed fellows they say
Excellent find Pat
Mutually assured destruction is solely at the direction of the President (or his/her successor)
Preceding Labor Day, we are subjected to a pair of week long tv circuses, as the conventions attempt to clothe their candidates in the garments of glory. Otherwise summer is a time for fund raising, organizing, and identifying the individual constituents and their concerns. Just to keep people aware that the candidates are still alive and kicking, campaigns run ads on tv. This is also an opportunity to test which messages and looks work best for serious campaigning. Serious (frenetic) campaigning begins immediately after Labor Day.
Pat,
The alleged news shows of the cable networks don’t show the news, or in this case, the candidates. They show a snippet of video, and then switch to barking heads for an hour. The presentations are not news, they are the commentators’ antics designed to keep your attention until they get to the really important part of the show : the ads.
As exciting as Clinton can be, she’s still not as riveting as a circus dog walking on a rolling ball. Circus dogs on rolling balls is what I think of the elites of the punditocracy.
Am I cynical ? You betcha. However, a few hours of your life devoted to watching faux news should convince anyone that no amount of cynicism on this topic is too much.
“Clinton has to push the proposition that the big economic payoff should go to families, not B!LL!ONA!RE$, and that she’ll see to it that it does.” -Xrep
So she has to lie.
Hillary has a credibility problem. If she says she is not working for billionaires, that she is working for the working class, all of those things are ACTUALLY Bernie’s views. He got traction, she co-opted them. Bernie was her test-marketer.
Bernie is the real deal.
That is her problem. She stands for things temporarily, if they serve her.
It’s not too late. Bernie could take down The Donald.
wapo:
In a statement issued by the Supreme Court public information office, Ginsburg said: “On reflection, my recent remarks in response to press inquiries were ill-advised and I regret making them. Judges should avoid commenting on a candidate for public office. In the future I will be more circumspect.”
imo hers was an understandable mistake. she no doubt heard the ghostly trod of jackboots at her door. judges in the ’30s must have suffered a lot when expected to stay silent when faced with men like drumpf.
Bernie lost. He won’t get a chance. Welcome to planet Earth.
Not exactly bowled over by the possibility that Mika and Joe are a thing. She alternately fawns over and dismisses him, and he dismisses her most of the time – kinda like a lot of married couples. If things progress, Joe can join Donald and Newt in the 6 wives club, making it 9. It’s the new pugn party giving a new twist to family values – making it families values.
Blue
HRC doesn’t have to lie, she has been supporting some version of this for 30 fricking years or more.
and no, she still isn’t supporting your little litmus tests for purity.
Jack
pogo, they have aspirations of being the new claire and frank underwood. she’s got the hair do, he’s got the chutzpah.
Poobah, Greg Sargent isn’t freaking out over Clinton’s falling numbers and sez we shouldn’t either.
I choose to agree with Greg. If trump can’t improve in the face of Hillary’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Week, he’s not going to do so in the Fall when he is mano et mano and doesn’t have the FBI attacking her. Oh, and look at the chart in Greg’s column. drumpf’s numbers have dropped about as much (w/in 1 pt.) as Hillary’s in the past month.
“she has been supporting some version of this for 30 fricking years or more”
jack, so much so they used to harangue about her being a commie pinko and left of lenin. she more than likely was publically on board with these programs before Bernie ever talked into a microphone.
So are we really going to see the final realignment where college educated Republicans can no longer lie to themselves about basic moral corruption of their party?
Craig
that was a good ad for a certain segment of the population, My aunt Pauline, the sweetest. kindest. most Christian, (in the good way) person I know of and also a reliable Republican for 60 years. I think that type of ad would affect her. I’m just not sure that this country has very many Aunt Paulines any more.
Jack
I’m seeing more bumperstickers, yard signs & people wearing t-shirts emblazoned with Trump in my area. A few of these t-shirts appear homemade, not bought. These people believe in this candidate, just sayin’. We know there are millions of people who support Secretary Clinton; maybe instead of relying on the “top-down” mode of politicking Clinton supporters should do more grassroots like the Trump supporters. HRC is a brand name; as much as she needs advertising she needs the people who believe in her to step up & help out. Our friend Oldseahag made the lovely bumpersticker to sell & distribute the HRC message; she is one of those millions who cares & shares. Now it’s up to the rest to look in the mirror & realize it begins & ends with them. No playing the blame game allowed November 9th.
WATCH: Colbert Rips Trump V. Ginsburg Feud—Scares the Bejeezus Out of Us in the Process
Colbert’s reference to Bush V. Gore reminds us how close this election could be.
This is just surreal to me this morning.
From a piece on Politico
Pogo, but their overall poll standings isn’t my point, it’s that the numbers show their hugely expensive ad campaign needs work, isn’t effective, didn’t drive up his negatives or her positives. It’s the same bash Romney early strategy that worked so well then. Something different is going on here.
(by the way I can’t figure out why the filter held your comment, there were no issues with it, very puzzling)
Poobah, I get your point. I think the news trumped (sorry) the ads. Absent that, who can say? My point is that the Comey news didn’t help drumpf. This is a zero sum game after all. I can’t divorce myself from the horse race and look only at ad effectiveness, about which I know little beyond my opinion of an ad.
My comment was held because it contained like 5 links in the quoted material that I didn’t notice when I posted it. I went back in and removed most of them.
I love Flatus’ plan for $100 M!LL!ON$ for down ticket meet ups w/lemonade & snacks. Some of these could be recorded live, cut to 30 seconds or less, and cycled as ads on the for profit networks. Ms Clinton could show up at some of these, or call in, and press the flesh & chat with actual citizens. It is well-known that the deadbeat doesn’t like mingling with the public or shaking hands with people. Also, imagine a phone-bank event where Clinton drops in and makes a few calls to ‘leans Dem’ voters , asking them what the important issues facing America are. A few 30 second snippets of such events could be very effective as local ads for the Clinton campaign and the down ticket candidates.
I love that edit button !
Pogo, That is the only thing I know of that flags the filter. I might just remove it. The captcha on our registration page does a perfect job of weeding out bots, and since commenting requires registration, not sure that extra layer is needed.
By the way, I find that copying and pasting directly from some web sites adds a lot of goofy code and extra links. I copy text first into my Notepad (not Word) and then copy that into comments, this removes the goofy stuff that can cause trouble.
Listening to Christie being interviewed on MSNBC. I think he wants the Supreme Court seat.
Back to the ad game, I have studied them for a long time, especially in Florida, and I can’t remember such a massive buy not ticking the numbers in some way. Here’s hoping the real answer is that the public has quit paying attention to them (but I doubt it, just ask Charlie Crist, Gov. Scott’s ads sunk his numbers in 2014). It also could be that they are so well known, and public opinions so hardened, there aren’t enough persuadables left for ads to influence. All I know is I would stop spending so much money until I find what works.
Craig,
How much effect can they have? When you are trying to drive Trumps numbers down they are already at record lows, there is no easy low hanging fruit every point lower is going to be a hard sell.
But that doesn’t mean they have been ineffective either, she has went through a shit storm with the email stuff yet Trump hasn’t been able to benefit.
Again with a number of prominent press folks still dreaming about bring HRC down, the coverage was wall to wall negative and at times not even rational.
Jack
I’m guessing that these new poll numbers reflect the success (temporary?) of the ripper plan to shrink the turnout.
Craig
my fear for HRC is that the number of “yella dog” voters is high so that The “yella dog” Republicans will vote for trump even though he doesn’t represent them in any way.
this combined with the nativist revolt that has fueled both Trump and Sanders then Clinton may have problems.
I suspect it depends on how effective the Republican revolt against Trump is and how much it affects upper middle class Republicans. Does Trump worry the McMansionites enough for them to vote for HRC?
Jack
Think how bad the numbers would be without the ad buy
Chris Christie is too short and still too fat to stand next to Trump
Newtie too too everything
Mike Pence – a loser who the goops want out of Indiana but he is a former radio host
nice choices
…fear-mongering based polls conducted by land-line, and I’m the simplistic one. Go figure. Trump doesn’t even lead among people dumb enough to pick up on an unlisted number at dinnertime.
Bink, for the record that FL poll, like many these days, included cell phone users
pence has no name recog. But, I guess the deadbeat makes up for that. Result, trump takes IN. Probably no change.
christ christie has name recog. His pal is going to prison for BridgeGate. Result, trump loses NJ. No change.
The nude grinch has name recog. He had to resign, & appointed denny hastert to succeed. Trump loses GA’s 16 electors.
I think he’s going to reach down to the military. allen west ?
Or maybe Congressman lynn westmoreland (r-GA) ?
Ya know, I would never be able participate in one of those polls because if it is from out of town and it ain’t family I let it go to voicemail and some days even family goes to voicemail.
How many folks are left who are like my MIL who always answered the phone?
Jack
Trump pulls ahead with voters who don’t know how to edit their contacts.
Well, in the time it takes to have a light lunch, we have been having a thunderstorm that has produced more than an inch of rain. The NWS classifies it as a severe thunderstorm. We really need the rain so I shan’t complain.
Trump still trying to figure out how he can name Ivanka or short of that run without a vp..just lt i be Ryan ifsomething happens
Bink LoL
Anybody want to do a Pence post tomorrow? Looks like the one.
from huffpo,
Ann Coulter Says Pence VP Pick Would Be ‘Trump’s First Mistake’
He’s a “combo-platter of disaster,” the conservative pundit tweeted.
Relentless Donald Trump supporter and conservative media heavyweight Ann Coulter finally has a gripe with the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.
In a series of social media posts, the pundit revealed she isn’t thrilled about the rumors that Trump will name Indiana Gov. Mike Pence (R) as his running mate.
Not I. I don’t know how hiring a teaist will improve Trump’s chances
Every time I hear commentators call Trump Mister Trump, the hair on the back of my neck goes up. He simply doesn’t deserve that honorific. Now, the man who did grass cutting around our neighborhood, Mr Percy, surely did.
Nicolle Wallace is a personable woman and does good interviews. Is she still a Republican because of intellectual laziness?
usa today
Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine auditioned for Hillary Clinton’s vice presidential nod by immediately tearing into Donald Trump.
Instead of being a job creator and a principled world leader, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee would be the “you’re-fired president,” a “trash talker” and the “me-first president,” Kaine said in introducing Clinton during a rally in this northern Virginia suburb of Washington, D.C.
Kaine would be considered a safe vice presidential pick – a swing state moderate and former governor — and he was already vetted by President Obama’s team in 2008. He is also fluent in Spanish — a skill he showcased at the top of his remarks — an asset for Clinton, who is counting on a strong Hispanic voter turnout.
Feed the turds, TrumPence a bag, TrumPence, TrumPence, TrumPence a bag…?
Donald is definitely trying to make sure nothing goes down at the convention. I still wonder.
Where is Jamie?
ann coulter is a media heavyweight ? Since when ? Huffpo B daffy on that score.
Flatus, who but a tee partier would want to be 2d fiddle on a trump ticket ?
One of my pals calls it the pee tardy.
BlueinD… Jamie is in Sacramento California visiting family.
I’ve been to Nice…. what a beautiful city. So sad.
brownback could volunteer to be the deadbeat’s running mate. He can pitch his strong background in Federal government. He’d save himself from being run out of Kansas on a rail.
I was worried about an attack on le Tour, which, incidentally, was a clusterf—, today.
I was most surprised that Hillary fell that many points in one week & it is scary because she has been playing a lot of ads let’s hope this email & INVESTIGATIONS will go away but republicans know it sticks & will probably keep it alive I live in north east FL – the Bible belt there are 28 churches within the radius of 2 small towns it is hard not to find a trump supporter around. Very discouraging.
boss, remember last week when I grumbled at your chastising Hillary for being “dumb” about something or the other and I retorted on that “dumb” scale where does she fit in relation to her opponent who is also running for prez? dumb & dumber? and you posted:
craigcrawford says:
July 7, 2016 at 3:41 pm
PatD, comparing Hillary to Trump’s low standards when she screws up is a specious argument, a convenient distraction. She is going to be the next president. That’s the standard I am now applying.
now that polls are too close for comfort if not neck and neck, my argument’s not so specious anymore sad to say.
the boobsie twins
if it happened there, it can happen here
Demographics Trump has alienated (off the top of my head):
Latinos
Blacks
Women
Christians
Muslims
Jews
Bernie Sanders supporters
(Gays safe, so far)
So, who exactly will vote for him? The hooligans at those rallies? Hooligans don’t vote.
Don’t tell me about the tour. I’m watching the rerun now.
Just saw Chris Froome running up Mt. Ventoux, then changing bikes twice. WTF?
Bink, what a cluster pluck at Mt. Ventoux. The motorcycles and crowd are out of control and need to be controlled. They are dangerous to the riders. Utterly ridiculous.
The motorcyclists weren’t at fault, it was the drunks in the road. Today’s stage kind of ruined the whole tour for me, speaking as an ardent and unapologetic fan. Tonight’s attack will cast a pall over the rest of it, if it isn’t cancelled. Sucks.
…was a great first week and a half, too.
SF Giants humor
Hillary Picks Posey As Running Mate!
Shortly after learning Donald Trump had in fact chosen Pence as his running mate, Hillary Clinton revealed that she and Gerald Dempster “Buster” Posey III had been having “talks” at his Florida home, and he has agreed to join her on the Democratic ballot come November