If it’s Tuesday, someone somewhere is voting.

voting booth

UPDATE (11:44pm ET): Bernie and Hillary swap states, split delegates. Kentucky for Clinton, Oregon for Sanders. No change in overall delegate math favoring Hillary.

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76 thoughts on “If it’s Tuesday, someone somewhere is voting.”

  1. In Kentucky five days, haven’t heard any mention of the primary, not a single yard sign or bumper sticker spotted

  2. I suspect you would have in Lexington. Bernie was doing his “It’s a bird, It’s a plane, it’s a super delegate…”spiel then blowing the rest of it. I don’t think mocking super delegates is the best way to get them to support you. (Thankfully, Bernie and his campaign advisers – creep Weaver – apparently never heard that you attract more flies with sugar than with vinegar).

  3. And for any NBA fans – KD and Russell woke up at the half and took it to the Warriors at home.  Pity.

     

    And tonight I’ll be watching game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals.  Bet it will be better tv than the election results, no matter who wins either.

  4. boss, that’s cause you were in eastern ky.  Hillary* has been all over the place this weekend, churches and union halls mostly, and garnered more time on local news with those stops.  a lot of Bernie ads but less the bern himself…. fact is I think he was in puerto rico these last coupla days.

    the gopers are all excited about the up-coming nra convention in louisville with the drumpf as headliner.   hopefully, they’ll cap it off with a circular machine gun shoot as a bang up finale.    look for pictures of him waving a bazooka in one hand and an ak in the other.

    * the dawg’s been schmoozing in a lot of back country places too.

  5. Richard Cohen posted a great article about Reince Priebus in the Post last night.

    Priebus went from TV studio to TV studio, four in all, on a trudge of abasement, a ride of shame. He was asked about Trump’s womanizing, his attempts in the past to pass himself off as someone else (“John Miller,” “John Barron”), his misogyny and his plan to bar all Muslims from the country (details to follow). The Mexican wall, did that come up? His belittling of John McCain, was that mentioned? His mockery of a physically handicapped reporter, did someone mention that?

    There is so much to offend, so much to defend: the king’s ransom of insults and moronic plans, the childish take on torture, the misunderstanding of the Constitution, the veritable conviction of all Mexicans on the charge of rape, the distrust of NATO, the off-the-cuff suggestion that Japan and South Korea get their own nuclear weapons, and, for a moment or two, the notion that women who seek abortions should be somehow punished.

    And so poor Priebus bobbed and weaved. Sometimes he said none of this mattered. Sometimes he said the people didn’t care (he could be right about that) and often he said Hillary Clinton was worse — worse about women, worse about honesty and worse in ways that Priebus didn’t mention but that Trump has. Clinton, it turns out, is a woman, and so during a break at one debate, she used the time to go to the bathroom and returned to the stage a trifle late. “I know where she went — it’s disgusting,” Trump said some days later. “I don’t want to talk about it. No, it’s too disgusting. Don’t say it, it’s disgusting.”

    I like Cohen a lot and don’t see him publish frequently enough these days.  I may just not be looking in the right places.

  6. pogo, you’ll enjoy this from esquire:

    These days, of course, Priebus’s primary job is to defend the vulgar talking yam who is his party’s presumptive presidential nominee without looking as though Corey Lewandowski is off-camera holding his balls in red-hot clamps. The effort is clearly wearing on the poor lad.

    On ABC, Priebus even was gifted with conservative mole Jonathan Karl as his interlocutor. This is probably the only thing that allowed Priebus to say the first honest thing he’s said in months.

    KARL: OK, but let me ask you the big question—who is the leader of the Republican Party right now? Who speaks for the party?

    PRIEBUS: You know what? That’s a—people ask that question all the time. I mean I speak for the Republican National Committee. Paul speaks for House Republicans. Donald Trump speaks for the millions and millions of people out there that have broken records that were voting. I think a lot of people speak for our party, because it’s a huge party. And there’s only two parties in this country. I mean, this isn’t Italy. We don’t have 12 parties where everyone can fit neatly into a box. And so that’s why I would say in order for us to be successful, we have to be the party of the open door to recognize that, you know, differences among each other doesn’t mean that we ask people to leave. It means that we ask people in and that we keep growing. And so a lot of people speak for our party.

    And many of them are crazy as hell. And one of them, the guy with the presidential nomination in hand, is the human equivalent of a wolverine in a meat locker.

  7. Yeah Pogo…  me too.  I’ll be switching back and forth between the Red Sox and the Cav/Rap game.  Stayed up waaaay too late watching that Warriors/Thunder game…  good game, even though I was rooting for the opposite outcome.

    The Hillary vs Bernie show started boring me weeks ago.  I’ll find out the results here in the morning.

  9. It was a good game, Renee.  At the half I thought it was over and would be the first game in a 4 game sweep.  Glad I kept switching back to it from Samantha Bee’s show.  I don’t have strong feelings about this series or who wins it – I’m more concerned with the Cavs getting past the Raptors since they were 1-2 in the regular season.

  10. Warriors-Thunder   we wuz robbed

     

    I heard the latest attempts by the news fantasist on MSNothing But Crap to pimp out Trump

    Trump will bring back industry that has left really?????

  12. Trump acts like he invented the issue of industry leaving.   It’s been leaving for centuries.  The key to success isn’t really in bringing them back but in finding new jobs new industry  – often better pay and in conjunction with new technologies better for everyone.

    There is successful reshoring going on for companies who left because of issues that could be resolved

    Trump has created another myth that only he can solve.    The Trumpian knot.

  13. Well, the House Rules Cmte has blocked women being required to register for the draft. So much for the most meaningful measure of equality that of, heaven forbid, being required to fight in the name of our Country even if one doesn’t want to.

  15. As prez, to ‘bring back’ all the alienated jobs, Deadbeat Donald will have to force Congress to buy majority positions in all of the merkin companies a broad, or to merely seize them. In other words, trump is proposing either SOCIALISM or outright COMMIE-ISM !

  17. Here’s what happened at Saturday’s dramatic Nevada Democratic convention

     
    Bernie warned against it Friday, ““Working together respectfully and constructively on Saturday at the Nevada Democratic convention will move us closer to those essential goals,” he said.” So much for that, but I’m looking for the Sanders’ campaign’s denouncement of this after they had to close down the convention as a result of his followers’ violence. Have I just missed it?  Beuhler?

    Here’s what I found in a WaPo article from yesterday. “Michael Briggs, a Sanders campaign spokesman, said, “We do not condone violence or encourage violence or even threats of violence.” He added that the campaign “had no role in encouraging the activity that the party is complaining about. We have a First Amendment and respect the rights of the people to make their voices heard.”” Really? Gee, I’m sure that will take care of it. Sorry, but can’t link in the edit function.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/nevada-democrats-sanders-campaign-has-violent-streak/2016/05/16/63a784c4-1bc6-11e6-82c2-a7dcb313287d_story.html

  19. Patd, “that’s cause you were in eastern ky”

    Yep, both parties ignore Appalachia.

  21. pogo, here’s the story as wonkette covers it titled
    Bernie Sanders Fans Take Massive Dump On Nevada Democratic Convention Floor

    their analysis boiled down to:
    They did their goddamndest to shut the whole thing down, because how is it even kosher for Hillary Clinton to get more delegates just because she won, when they had stolen it fair and square?

     

  23. The amusing part is the number of Bernie bros & bro-ettes who can’t even be bothered to join the party. The election was back in February and they nhad till the 1st of May to get it done.

    rules evidently only apply to HRC and supporters.

    Not Bernie

     

    Jack

  24. craig, your “both parties ignore Appalachia” isn’t altogether the case.  she had been there — in appalachia– but just before your trip.  however, bill has been back a few times since her visit 11 days ago.  here are some tho’ts on her visit

    athens messenger: Clinton visit highlights presidential plan to rebuild Appalachia

     

    e.j. Dionne’s “Clinton’s visit to Appalachia wasn’t just about wooing voters”

    Clinton’s recent visit to Appalachia reflected this realism, but it was about more than electoral calculation, given her poor prospects in West Virginia and Kentucky. Believe it or not, there are moral obligations in electoral politics. This is why her Appalachian outreach represented one of the admirable moments of her campaign.

    [….]

    In her speech, Clinton acknowledged several times that many of the voters she met with during her Appalachian tour would never vote for her. The trip nonetheless made sense as part of a larger obligation of leadership. Making America governable again requires breaking down barriers that get in the way of empathy across the lines of race and class but also of social status and personal values.

  25. rules evidently only apply to HRC and supporters.

    Not Bernie

    jack, that seems too when it comes to uniting the party (or in the case of those who refuse to join the party just uniting in an effort against drumpf).  she is expected to beg st bern for his blessing, to promise maybe a cabinet post for jane or pick up the tab on his campaign expenses.  she is told to apologize for winning…. to bow to his program.

  26. Did HRC & Co. ever clarify her stand for preventing employers from asking about criminal records? I ask because Trump just hired the guy who did the Willie Horton ad — Tony Fabrizio, Here’s the script:

    “She would force employers to hire Willie Horton”

  27. back in October she promised to “ban the box” on federal applications when she becomes prez.  but within weeks after she said that Obama actually ordered such a ban.  here’s comment on her promise in an  essence article

    willie horton ads will proliferate no doubt along with ads about the illegal immigrant who murdered in California…   they will concoct scary scenerios about people in any voting bloc not their base.

     

  28. from fivethirtyeight’s  What To Expect In The Democratic Primaries In Kentucky And Oregon

    By Harry Enten
    Today’s Democratic primaries in Kentucky and Oregon are the last meaningful ones of the month. Hillary Clinton is a slight favorite in Kentucky (with 55 delegates at stake), and Bernie Sanders has a good shot at taking Oregon (with 61 delegates at stake). Overall, Sanders probably won’t make much of a dent in Clinton’s lead of 280 elected delegates, because all Democratic primaries allocate their delegates proportionally. Unless Sanders wins by a very large margin, which is unlikely, he won’t pick up many more delegates than Clinton will.

  29. new york times: From Bernie Sanders Supporters, Death Threats Over Delegates
    Thrown chairs. Leaked cellphone numbers. Death threats spewed across the Internet.
    No, this is not the work of Donald J. Trump supporters, some of whom have harassed critics of the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. It was angry supporters of Senator Bernie Sanders who were directing their ire at the Nevada Democratic Party —

  30. Here’s Bump’s article, updated following the Sanders’ campaign response.  If I wore a hat I’d eat it if that isn’t Weaver’s response. (Mrs. P would say it comes from Jane – who is clearly delighting in the accolades at the rallies).

    If things go this way I expect Philadelphia to be an utter flustercluck.

  31. Now this is what I’ve been talking about, let it roll. The Sexist Pig assault begins.

    NYT: “Clinton [super pac] airing its first two attack ads on broadcast television in four important swing states. The effort kicks off a multimillion-dollar campaign that will flood TV screens in those battlegrounds in the months to come. … $6 million investment includes two ads that offer scathing critiques of Mr. Trump’s comments about women that will run for the next three weeks in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Nevada.”

    Nicely done!

  32. Pogo,

    somebody needs to grab Bernie by the political nuts and remind him why keeping them is useful

    Oh and CNN calls BS on Sander’s statement

    but new audio obtained by CNN shows a senior Sanders aide — on the eve of the Nevada convention — encouraging the senator’s supporters try to “take over” the convention, change party rules and continue the “revolution” that Sanders has long campaigned on.

  35. This Bernie Sanders statement on the Nevada convention reads like an open threat to the Democratic establishment

     

    Craig
    Those ads had better work as HRC will need all the Republican votes she can find, when Bernie runs as an independent., cause more and more it looks like he is.

    And as in the primary he will get a lot of Republican money funneled his way.

    Jack

     

  37. If the comments of Bernie supporters directed at the chairwoman of the Nevada State convention are somehow meant to reassure us that Bernie is the anti-Trump, then they are way off base. They make the sexist Trump look like a perfect gentleman.

    Bernie supporters got some ‘splaing to do and a whole lot of apologizing as well. It was over the top disgusting.

    If they ever had a chance of winning me over they just lost it.

  39. Well, close, but Clinton is the apparent winner in KY.

    And I like what I’m seeing in the Cavs-Raptors first half.   CLE up 12 w/ 3:00 to go.

  41. It appears that HRC may have just upset everyone’s pre- ordained apple cart.

  42. Looks like Jefferson County (Louisville) put Hillary over the top once they finally finished reporting. Largest county, about 16% of the state’s total voting population.

  43. My parents home county, Rockcastle, went for Bernie 254 votes to 238. Looks like he swept eastern KY, she won the more populated center-west counties.

  44. Nasty old English used to display the corpses of their troublemakers on the scaffolding of their Thames River bridges.

  45. CLE up by 20 w/ 43 secs. left in the 1st half

    Jack, re your 646 post, yep.  St. Bernie’s path gets narrower and narrower.  He should beware of consequences if he does damage to the party going forward, having become a democrat to use the party for his run and all…

    There comes a point where there is no longer a path.  At some point Bernie may realize he’s beyond that point.

  47. am thrilled to say hillary now follows me on twitter.  she follows 652 people.  wonders never cease!

  50. OSH, thanks.  We live to serve.  Disigenuous a$$hole Weaver called it a tie.  No, it’s not. If Bernie had won by one vote he’d have St. Bernie out waving that right finger and declaring a resounding victory. Have I mentioned that I hate Weaver? I hate Weaver. He’s doing no service to Bernie or the Democratic party.

  54. With 2/3 of the Oregon vote in Sanders has a 6 pt. lead.

    Earlier tonight the cable networks were talking about a 20 pt. victory.

    The Clinton campaign made a very poor decision by not having her visit the state and spent 0 on ads.

    Every state should adopt our mail-in system.  I was wrong when I originally opposed it.

  55. Clinton’s lead was cut from 280 to 276.

    Only a (may G!D forbid it !) stroke or heart attack (or atheist miracle) can tip the balance to Sanders now.

  56. pogo, you said in re sanders Nevada response: ” If I wore a hat I’d eat it if that isn’t Weaver’s response. (Mrs. P would say it comes from Jane – who is clearly delighting in the accolades at the rallies)”

    I agree with mrs. p… however, that sure puts a crimp in her being sec of ed, ambassador to Vatican or even invited to a wh state dinner.  and bern had better forget any committee chairmanship.  he’ll be lucky to get a key to the senators’ bathroom.

    they better find a goper mole in their midst to blame it on or chances of getting their campaign debts taken care of are nil.

    btw, wasn’t it about this time in 2008 when Hillary’s florida delegates were short-changed? were there equivalent nasty responses from her then?

  57. haha, thanks craig- what we really need is for you to come out of retirement and get  on hillary’s team- you know they would love to have you.  she and the country is going to need your voice in the face of trump.

  58. pogo- total creep.  can’t even imagine how one can simply look at him and say i want you for my manager. yikes!

  59. The Sanders campaign is the face of the new Tea Party left.  Angry white humans with sleazy tactics and optics which include childish behaviors and tantrums.  Bullying.  DNC Debbie is very flustered now that she let the vampires in….makes the RNC loyalty pledge and signature look like not such a bad idea!

     

  60. Joe & Mika have now officially lost their minds. Following what was supposed to be a very favorable set of states for Bernie, he split the states. Of the 65 or 66% that he needed to get to be on a trajectory to win an equal number of delegates by the time the convention rolls around, he got 52%. Okay, I’m no math genius, but he now needs to win 69% of the remaining pledged delegates to equal Hillary going into the convention. At some point reality has to set in. I listened to part of his address yesterday in California, and it is apparent to me that reality has not set in.

    Personalities of the candidates aside, as a Democrat I’m beginning to get pissed at this. I believe that we are at that point where the continued fighting between Bernie and Hillary is beginning to hurt the party and its prospects for the presidency in November. Of course I understand that two people who were registered as Independents who are running in the Democratic party, and yes I include Weaver in this, don’t give a crap.

  61. Hey Bern…I am an independent voter for Hillary…you do not own me or speak for me.  Who are Bernie and Jane to tell the state’s political parties how to run their primaries?  I cannot vote in any primary here in NM because I do not affirm my allegiance to any party.  So what?  I still prefer the two party system.  Coalition politics slow down progress.  Bernie has hijacked the party to weaken Clinton.  Made a name in history for himself.  Greed is not always measured in $$$.  I just do not want the repugs in the WH for a long time.  They slow down science and sanity when they reside there.  Look at stem cells…today we not longer tether the important life giving cells to abortion, etc.  We have learned how to make the cells within our own bodies because research was resumed.  GWB halting stem cell research…for what?   The extremists!  Sick of them on both sides…get out of the way.  The rest of us in the middle want to live.

  63. OSH – Congrats Now you can be the official White House candy maker 🙂

    Pogo, count me in on the I hate Weaver? I hate Weaver team

  64. interesting bbc mag story called Why do some people refer to themselves in the third person? points out:

    Curiously, Trump is not the only candidate in this election to use the third person about himself. Bernie Sanders, the 73-year-old left-winger bidding for the Democratic nomination, is another.

    and goes on to note: The technical term for it is illeism from “ille”, the Latin for “he”, and history provides many examples, from Julius Caesar – who wrote a history of his Gallic campaigns as if he were an objective observer rather than a protagonist – to Charles de Gaulle and Richard Nixon, basketball megastar Le Bron James and Mikhail Gorbachev. In Gorbachev’s case it was one of the linguistic habits that led his rival, Yegor Ligachev, to say he was behaving like an “enlightened monarch”.

     

    bernie and drumpf? illeists?  another take on why one does this

    Typically, the use of the third person by individuals themselves, called illeism, is associated with egocentrics and oddball characters like rapper Flavor Flav, American Psycho’s Patrick Bateman and Jimmy from Seinfeld. When most people talk about themselves, they just say “I.”

    they wrote it’s also a way to handle stress.

  65. Come on, Bernie, Time to Level With Your Dreamers
    He must stop indulging his people’s fantasies, tell them the truth about the math—and get them to stop with all the nasty about Clinton.
    Joy Ann Reid

    And then there’s Sanders, his wife Jane’s and some of his prominent surrogates’ dismissals of the heavily African-American Southern primaries won by Hillary Clinton as irrelevant red states that are too conservative, too “brand loyal” and too unacquainted with their own best interests to have voted the “right way”; nearly all-white red caucus states like Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and nearly all-white, red primary states like West Virginia notwithstanding.

    The rush to conspiracy theories, appropriation of the real, ongoing struggles against actual voter suppression including voter ID laws, and the embrace by some on the Sanders left of every scurrilous accusation against Hillary Clinton, from the ’90s to Benghazi, is jarring. And the memes are especially vicious among the youngest Sandernistas, whose abject, #BerntheWitch hatred of Secretary Clinton is reaching World Net Daily proportions. In fact, some supposed leftists have taken to tweeting out actual WND, Breitbart and Daily Caller links to prove their case.

  67. Tony,

    Good link. Clinton Derangement Syndrome has been around since 1992. Clinton haters just gotta’ hate. There is no known cure.

  68. Jamie, you’re in, Tony, too.

    OK, continuing on the Wednesday math theme as I tend to do on Wednesdays following primary Tuesdays, here’s my bottom line – IT AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN. Why not?  Well, let’s look at it.  Bernie’s current run started arguably on March 22, continuing into March 26, when the first contests following the SEC primary occurred.  He did well in those contests, taking 5 of the 6 that week and 7 of 8 through April 9. Hillary countered on April 19 and 26, taking 5 of the 6 contests on those dates.  They’ve swapped contests since.  Over that period, Bernie has garnered 51.34% of the delegates awarded and Hillary has won 48.66%. (I believe the target for parity among pledged delegates for Bernie at that point was about 58% of the remaining pledged delegates at stake). Bernie picked up 33 more delegates in that period, leaving Hillary with her current 279 edge.  That was after a total of 19 contests over that period to the present.  There are 9 contests left.  The two biggest, NJ & CA, show HRC with average polling advantages of 18.9% and 9.5%, respectively, with her strongest polling in CA being the last one shown at RCP of 19% (ending 4/30) and her strongest NJ poll being the last one at 28% (ending 5/3).   Yesterday Bernie told a CA crowd that “Secretary Clinton” should be very nervous because he thinks he’s going to win in CA.  We’ll see, but other than a gut instinct, he’s got nothing to base that on – not polls, not demographics, nothing. It ain’t gonna happen.

    So you say why rely on polls for the upcoming contests?  Because that is what Bernie is basing his argument on to get super delegates to back him.  He says POLLS SHOW him beating Trump more than Clinton beats Trump in hypo general election matchups.  Well, polls show Clinton beating Bernie for the nomination (as well as delegate math, but Bernie doesn’t take that seriously), so using his logic, shouldn’t the party declare Clinton the nominee and just forget the convention brouhaha that is inevitable given the appalling behavior of Bernie’s supporters at the NV state convention? Using Bernie’s logic.

    The problems for Bernie are two.  The first is that elections are not won and delegates are not awarded based on polling.  Polls are wrong (remember Michigan?) and change.  Look at the CA polls listed at RCP – in the past 2 months they range from 9 to 28 % in NJ and from 2 to 19% in CA.  The second problem is that you have to go from Step A – primary wins- to Step B – amassing more delegates than your opponent to get the nomination – to get to Step 3 – facing Trump  in November.  Bernie wants to skip, well, ignore, step 2.  Forget the super delegates.  Based on pledged delegates won Bernie has no argument that he should be the party nominee.

    Should he get out?  Not my call to make, but he should stop maligning the party in the process.  If he can’t win under the rules that are in place, and were in place when he started to play the game, he needs to accept that with some measure of grace, but the rules are not going to change in the middle of the game.

  69. popular votes per fivethirtyeight:  clinton 12,958,337  to sanders 9,901,294  which means over 3 million more actual people (not corps, not dnc, not rigging, bern – just individuals) have made the effort to vote for her than for him

  70. If Weaver thinks his remarks are going to help persuade super delegates to switch to Bernie, he’s delusional. He needs to exit stage left sooner rather than later. Don’t want him any where near a microphone or a camera come fall.

  71. Pogo,

    Good analysis. I also think that team Clinton will loosen the purse strings in the next few weeks especially in NJ and CA. They have not spent lavishly of late and those are big markets where ad buys can pay off. Neither the math nor the terrain seem to be too favorable for Sanders from here on out.

  72. Jace, I hope so.  Political speech means something after all.  If I were her I’d schedule televised town halls.  The networks would jump to cover them and they reach many more voters than rallies.

  73. Seems to me that Burnie’s demand to have open primaries is really spot-on. Let’s take the next logical step.

    Every registered voter should be able to vote in every primary in the state(s) in which the voter is registered. It makes perfect sense that if I, a registered Democrat, were to vote in the Republican primary, that I would cast my ballot for Gov Kasich. And that I should be afforded the opportunity to vote in their primary as a matter of Rule if not Law. Concurrently, that should not deprive me from voting for Ms Clinton in the Democratic Primary.

    That Champion of Human Rights, Burnie, will surely support my rigorously logical proposal.

  74. BTW, Bernie missed both his fivethirtyeight targets yesterday – Kentucky by 1 and Oregon by 10 (but the counting continues there)  Hillary hit both of hers.  They are still at 108% (HRC) and 92% (BS) of their respective fivethirtyeight delegate targets.

  75. Flatus, I suspect he would support your proposal if he’s being intellectually honest.  Plus, in those states where the primaries are held on the same day, you get to vote twice.  Yippee.

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