35 thoughts on “Dizzying Daze of Ups and Downs Days”

  1. David Horsey’s op ed The yo-yo of election emotions | The Seattle Times

    Americans who fear the prospect of another Trump presidency have been riding an emotional roller coaster for many months. President Joe Biden’s disastrous performance in the first debate with former President Donald Trump was the dismal low point; the joyful Democratic National Convention that nominated Kamala Harris was an ecstatic peak, equaled, perhaps, by the vice president’s own masterful debate performance against the angry, befuddled Republican nominee.

    But the ups and downs for Never Trumpers do not come only at dramatic moments, they arrive minute by minute for those who habitually scroll through campaign news on their phones or spend hours tuned into MSNBC. Those addicted to campaign commentary immerse themselves in news feeds that tell them Harris is losing Latino voters, but doing pretty well with old folks, leading in national polls, but slipping behind in battleground states, attracting disenchanted Republican voters in North Carolina, but turning off Muslim and Arab American voters in Michigan.

    They will read that Trump’s lengthy, rambling speeches laden with paranoid right-wing fantasies and whining personal complaints are boring his rally audiences, and that report will make Harris fans feel like there is no way this ridiculous man could win an election. Then, they will skip down to a story detailing how hordes of evangelical Christians and cadres of young white men see Trump as their champion, and panic will ensue.

    Most frustrating are the daily, if not hourly, analyses of polls — national polls, state polls, Democratic polls, Republican polls, independent polls — that declare that Harris is up and Trump is down, except when they say the opposite.

    On any day, there is an updated campaign story or expert analysis that will confirm a voter’s fears or justify optimism. All this contradictory punditry points to one salient truth: The 2024 presidential election is extremely close and nobody knows how it will turn out.

    Yet, that is what Harris supporters really are seeking; some certainty that Trump’s chaotic carnival will not be coming back to town. Tempting as it may be, though, another round of doom scrolling is not going to bring that assurance. The choice is to either take a break, turn off the TV and put down your phone, or keep riding the yo-yo of emotions for a few more weeks until the nation’s fate becomes clear on Nov. 5.

  2. speaking about ‘toons

    After a Snoopy fan account threw its support behind Trump, other cartoon characters have jumped in with their 2024 endorsements.

  3. something different from Ms Petri yesterday in her Opinion | Fascinated by genetics? Where are the peas Trump made to fornicate? – The Washington Post

    My name is Gregor Mendel, and I am a friar and the founder of genetics. I spent decades of my life staring at pea plants. I bred them with each other. I observed the traits of their offspring. I theorized about them. Those peas were my whole life. I think it would be fair to say I am someone with a fascination for genetics.

    That is why I was so upset and hurt to hear a legacy news organization characterize Donald Trump’s remark that “we got a lot of bad genes in our country right now” as an invocation of a “long-held fascination with genes and genetics.” That is simply not correct. That’s not genetics! It’s not even science.

    This would be like hearing someone say, “Let’s bleed him to release the humors!” and calling him fascinated with medicine. Sure, if by “fascinated with,” you mean “not paying attention to” — but that is not what those words mean! Unless we are just indifferent to the meaning of words now, something that is always possible.

    Similarly, if someone said, “I sure love that the sun revolves around us every day!” you would not say, “That man is fascinated with astronomy.” You would say, “That man has been in a coma for centuries! Remarkable!”

    I could go on. I will go on! If someone says, “I’m about to add people to this party by murdering seven!” you don’t call him passionate about arithmetic. You say, “That man is threatening people, and also — way, way down the list of priorities — he doesn’t seem to understand how addition works!”

    I did not trudge out to my peas every morning, ignoring the taunts of my fellow friars (“There goes Gregor, the pea pervert!” “Gregor’s going out to watch his peas get it on!” “Hey, Gregor, which peas are the sexiest?”) so that someone with no understanding of genetics could have his racism masked as “fascination” with my chosen field. Candidly, peas are not that interesting! If I could have spent my life going around spouting every random, bigoted thought that came into my head instead of staring at those peas every day and still have been acclaimed for my fascination with genetics, you bet I would have done that instead!

    But I didn’t, so here we are. Here we all are. And I will not sit idly by and let someone’s pea-brained eugenicist nonsense be mistaken for a love of my noble science. (I use the term “pea-brained” advisedly. I know about peas.)

  4. Trying not to ride the pollercoaster too much these days. Especially with actual votes coming in. Pennsylvania is at almost half a million mail-in ballots returned and Democrats are running ahead more than usual.

    Pennsylvania Votes Cast
    Mail/Absentee ballots
    Ballots sent: 1,629,276
    Total returns: 416,653
    🔵 Democratic 68.4%
    🔴 Republican 23.0%
    ⚪️ Other 8.6%

  5. And the best way to follow polls is to look at the averages, not individual polls (although that’s tough to avoid). I like the Five-Thirty-Eight averages, both state and nationals, because they weed out or downplay partisan or historically inaccurate polls. Harris is up 2.5 points in their national average. Graphic above shows their state averages of polls.

    Recommend bookmarking this page for tracking polls:
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

  6. Yesterday’s Trump rallies, especially in Colorado, were frightening to watch. He’s getting worse. And The New Republic put it perfectly:

    Trump’s Rally Just Went Full Nazi With Bloodthirsty Immigration Threat
    “We have to live with these animals. But we won’t live with them for long!” At that, one person in the crowd shouted, “Kill them!”

    New Republic: Donald Trump drilled down on his racist, xenophobic vitriol during a rally in Aurora, Colorado, on Friday. The Republican presidential nominee weaponized violent and dehumanizing language to describe immigrants, referring to them as the “enemy from within” while advocating for harsher criminal punishments for the vulnerable demographic, including promising the death penalty.

    “All the scum we have to deal with that hate our country. That’s a bigger enemy than China and Russia”

    Trump called for the expeditious “removal of these savage gangs,” promising that, if elected, he would appoint “elite squads” to conduct mass deportations. He also vowed to enforce the death penalty for “any migrant that kills an American citizen or a law enforcement officer.”

    https://newrepublic.com/post/187115/donald-trump-rally-nazi-bloodthirsty-immigration-threat

    More…

    USA TODAY: Trump proposes ‘Operation Aurora,’ escalates migrant rhetoric.. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/11/trump-operation-aurora-colorado/75617416007/

    The Guardian: Trump intensifies nativist message with sweeping proposal to deport immigrants.. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/11/trump-aurora-colorado-migrant-crackdown

    Newsweek: GOP Aurora Mayor Rips Donald Trump’s ‘Grossly Exaggerated’ Claims After Rally..
    https://www.newsweek.com/aurora-colorado-mayor-rips-donald-trump-grossly-exaggerated-claims-rally-1968008

  7. I hope the magats got their little wallets emptied paying for parking out there by the airport.  Not bothering to look for any pictures of the kkk rally leaves me wondering if the back stage crew were the same as usual.  They seem to be bussed from event to event, similar to what the kock bros did for the “tea party”.
     
    Big day it will be, time to move my new (to me) sailboat from the high rent district of Annapolis (three miles by land, eight miles by water) to a more moderate location near me.  Two miles by water, eight miles by land.  A beautiful day to be on the Chesapeake Bay.  And, the Annapolis sailboat show is going on, which I have so far avoided.

  8. Blue B, would love to sail on the Bay right about now. This election is nerve-wracking. As a friend in politics once said about the final days of a campaign, “Worry more, panic less”

  9. Ron Filipkowski
    Editor-in Chief, MeidasTouch

    “When you have a corrupt demagogue who dreams of being an autocrat, with nobody in his government who will ever tell him no, with a Senate that will never convict on impeachment, and a Supreme Court who says he can’t be prosecuted, you have a stage set for the death of a Republic.”

  10. Trump called for the expeditious “removal of these savage gangs,” promising that, if elected, he would appoint “elite squads” to conduct mass deportations.

    donald, some would agree with you about those pesky immigrants.

    Arrival of Puritan Calvinist "Christians" (Pilgrims) @ Plymouth Rock ...

     

    BTW happy columbus day. this year Indigenous Peoples Day will be celebrated on the 14th and officially observed by 33 states according to Indigenous People’s Day 2024 in the United States (timeanddate.com).

    A Proclamation on Indigenous Peoples’ Day, 2024 | The White House

    On Indigenous Peoples’ Day, we honor Indigenous peoples’ strength, courage, and resilience. We celebrate the vast contributions of Indigenous communities to the world. And we recommit to respecting Tribal sovereignty and self-determination and working to usher in a new era of our Nation-to-Nation relationships.
    The history of America’s Indigenous peoples is marked by perseverance, survival, and a deep commitment to and pride in their heritage, right to self-governance, and ways of life. Since time immemorial, Indigenous peoples have built and sustained powerful Tribal Nations, cultivated rich cultures, and established vibrant communities. And their discoveries and knowledge still benefit us today. But because of our Nation’s failed policies of the past, generations of Native peoples have faced cruelty, violence, and intimidation. They were forced to leave their homelands, prohibited from speaking their own languages and practicing their sacred traditions, and forced into assimilation. Indigenous lives were lost, livelihoods were ripped away, and communities were fundamentally altered. Despite the trauma and turmoil, Indigenous peoples have persisted and survived. Their stories are testaments to the bravery and resolve of generations to preserve their heritage, cultures, and identities for those to come after them.
    […]
    Since I came into office, the Federal Government has made record investments in Tribal Nations. My American Rescue Plan -‑ the largest direct Federal investment in Tribal Nations ever — helped provide COVID-19 vaccinations to Tribal communities and got our economy going again. My Bipartisan Infrastructure Law is the single biggest investment in Tribal roads, bridges, water, high-speed internet, electricity, irrigation, environmental cleanup, and more. My Inflation Reduction Act is the biggest investment in fighting climate change ever, anywhere in the history of the world. It is helping Tribal communities lead in the transition to clean energy and mitigate the impact of droughts, wildfires, and rising sea levels that threaten Native lives and precious homelands. My Administration has also provided increased resources to fight the opioid epidemic and expand access to crisis care in Tribal communities. Given that Native American women are two times more likely to die of pregnancy-related causes than White women, my Administration has taken significant steps to improve maternal health. And my Administration also secured the first-ever advance funding for the Indian Health Service so hospitals can plan ahead, order supplies, and hire doctors.
    When my Administration reauthorized the Violence Against Women Act in 2022, we included historic provisions to reaffirm Tribal sovereignty and expand Tribal jurisdiction in cases where outside perpetrators harm members of their Nation. And recognizing the ties of Indigenous peoples across North America, I supported a Trilateral Working Group with Canada and Mexico to ensure Indigenous women and girls in all three countries can live free from violence.
    My Administration is also preserving important ancestral Tribal lands and waters. I have protected and conserved more than 42 million acres of our Nation’s lands and waters. I established, expanded, or restored 11 national monuments — including Bears Ears National Monument, Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument, Avi Kwa Ame National Monument, Baaj Nwaavjo I’tah Kukveni-Ancestral Footprints of the Grand Canyon National Monument, Berryessa Snow Mountain National Monument, and others containing sites considered sacred to Tribal Nations. We are advancing the proposed Chumash Heritage National Marine Sanctuary, which stretches along 116 miles of California coastline and has been home to coastal, ocean-going Tribal Nations and Indigenous peoples for tens of thousands of years. My Administration has also signed over 190 co-stewardship or co-management agreements with Tribes, and we are working to sign more.
    On Indigenous Peoples’ Day, we recognize that it is hard work to heal the wrongs of the past and to change course and move forward, but together, nothing is beyond our capacity. May we take pride in the progress we have made to establish a new era of Tribal sovereignty and Indigenous self-determination — one grounded in dignity, respect, and friendship.
    NOW, THEREFORE, I, JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., President of the United States of America, by virtue of the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, do hereby proclaim October 14, 2024, as Indigenous Peoples’ Day. I call upon the people of the United States to observe this day with appropriate ceremonies and activities. I also direct that the flag of the United States be displayed on all public buildings on the appointed day in honor of our diverse history and the Indigenous peoples who contribute to shaping this Nation.
    IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this eleventh day of October, in the year of our Lord two thousand twenty-four, and of the Independence of the United States of America the two hundred and forty-ninth.

    JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

  11. How Kamala Harris Wins
    — former ABC News Political Director Mark Halperin

    1. Reproductive freedom is a much more powerful force in turnout and voter preference than polls currently suggest.

    2. There will be a massive female contribution to the vote – and Harris will win an extremely high percentage of those female voters who do turn out.

    3. Trump’s seeming inroads with Black and Hispanic voters craters to at or near usual Republican levels.

    4. The disparity in the quality of the turnout operations for early vote and on Election Day is massive, with [Harris campaign manger] Jen O’Malley Dillon’s army proving to be far superior to Team Trump’s jerrybuilt, ragged enterprise – and the Democratic state parties in the battleground states outshining their GOP counterparts.

    5. The Democrats’ money advantage turns out to be meaningful.

    6. Last-minute ads on Medicare, Social Security, health care and other Democratic stand bys shift the terrain.

    7. Trump makes errors in the closing days that are highly publicized and remind voters why they don’t want to see him back in charge.

    8. Trump’s popular vote ceiling turns out to indeed be too low to win states in a two-person race where he must get to 48% or 49% to garner electoral votes.

    9. Facts on the ground on the economy, the Middle East, immigration, and crime are all positive for Harris or quiet.

    10. The earned media disparity is massive, as today’s most certainly is, in both the framing of the daily news and in enterprise reporting.

    https://x.com/MarkHalperin/status/1845076868418228698

  12. Washington just sent out the voters’ guide with ballots to follow on the 18th.  The box to deposit is less than a half mile from my door.    It’s truly nice to be in a state that makes it so simple.  

  13. While true Harris has some work to do among Black voters (men, in particular), on the plus side she is massively up among white college, a universe of voters nearly three times larger.

    Harris currently leads Trump by 18 points among college whites (CNN) — that’s DOUBLE Biden’s margin in 2020 and more than triple Hillary Clinton’s winning margin in 2016.

  14. I think we need to remember when you start to look at subgroups in a poll you are often looking at very few people sampled. The margin of error has to be large. African Americans make up less than 14% of the population
    I’ve  seen some polls that have AAs voting for Trump in the 20% range, that is just stupid. A bad number for Harris is she gets 93% of the AA vote a good number is she gets 95%. The real question about black voters isn’t the percentage split but the turnout. Will black men vote, will they show up in the numbers needed to pull Harris over the top in those northern swing states. Will she get Obama numbers?
    Jack

  15. David Corn is making sense.

    Trump Is Running a Disinformation Campaign, Not a Political Campaign

    He’s not just lying. He’s creating an alternative reality.

    Trump’s dishonesty goes further than the usual campaign lying. He concocts and promotes utterly false narratives to shape voters’ perceptions of fundamental realities. His campaign is a full-fledged project to pervert how Americans view the nation and the world, an extensive propaganda campaign designed to fire up fears and intensify anxieties that Trump can then exploit to collect votes. And the political media world has yet to come to terms with the fact that Trump is heading a disinformation crusade more likely to be found in an authoritarian state than a vibrant democracy.

    Trump Is Running a Disinformation Campaign, Not a Political Campaign

  16. https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/12/politics/jd-vance-childless-cat-ladies/index.html
    “Vance says ‘childless cat ladies’ comment was ‘dumb’ but his point stands”
    “What I was definitely trying to illustrate ultimately in a very inarticulate way is that I do think that our country has become almost pathologically anti-child,” Vance said.

     

    “He specifically criticized those who have decided against having children because of climate change, describing such a decision as “very deranged” and “sociopathic.”
     
    Just Deranged Vance seems like a sociopath.  What is “anti-child” is depressed wages, overpriced housing, racism (not all of those babies are white, JD), misogyny, red states rejecting federal  funds to feed kids, cuts to SNAP and Medicaid, and caring about them even less (if that’s possible), as they age.   Even JD’s meemaw was someone’s baby.  And yeah, climate change does matter.   
    He lives in a bubble of his own choosing, but most can not do that.   Go, sofa yourself, JD. 
     
     

  17. i don’t really understand the validity of averaging multiple polls with different samples and methods, but of it makes you feel good, do it
     
    i’m ready to vote (blue up and down because republicans sold their souls), let’s gooo 🇺🇸 

  18. JDouché is, how to put this? – Fucking nuts. Before I fell in love with Mrs. P I was married to a wonderful woman who said she couldn’t see bringing a child into this world- which was during the Reagan administration. That was a stroll in the park compared to now with the looming prospect of a CS/JD admin.

  19. Craig – As much as I wanted to let you know a sail on the Bay was within reach, sadly no.  Moved my boat from Annapolis to the South River, no electronics, no anything on board, only the head sail working (sort of), and the worse thing for sailors, the head had been used previously and did not pump out!  Yeah, it was a delightful day to be on board and upwind.
    I will keep you two in mind though once things are better.

  20. BB, as Ratty told Mole, ”There is nothing – absolutely nothing – half so much worth doing as simply messing about in boats.”

    So what’s your new sailboat?

  21. Pogo, I couldn’t watch but we were following online. Talk about yo-yo. Maybe this will get them up to #5. 

  22. Pogo – I bought a 1980 Catalina C30 sailboat a month ago.  Completely stripped out, no cabin lights, no anything.  But, I saved her from the brokers and can put her back into sailing again.  Lots to do and lots of boat bucks to get it done.

  23. Aaaand, just like that, things aren’t so peachy here.  They will not believe Harrison Butker (Chiefs) and Josh Hawley are misogynists.   They won’t believe that they say  the things they say, or that they mean them that way.  

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/chiefs-kicker-harrison-butker-endorses-sen-josh-hawley-re-election-no-other-person-id-want-support
     
    “Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker endorsed Josh Hawley in his senatorial re-election bid, praising the former Missouri attorney general for being a “family” and “godly” man.”
    “He [Butker] praised the female graduates for their accomplishments, but said they’ve been told “diabolical lies” and should embrace becoming a “homemaker.” 
    “I think you have to vote for whoever is going to be the most pro-life,” Butker responded. “And we have to be prayerful men that put God first, and I think that’s what’s going to be best for our country.” 

    Butker is either another fake Christian, or he doesn’t understand the religion.  
     

    May he never make another good kick.

  24. Butker is either another fake Christian, or he doesn’t understand the religion.  

    Once again, if you’re a rich, misogynist, Christian white-supremacist, the system works for you, and Trump’s your guy

    …not terribly considerate of the people of color that are his colleagues, he probably drinks his juice box alone in the corner of the locker room

  25. Those are nice, solid boats. A buddy had a very similar Cal 30 back in the late 80s. We blew out the main crossing Delaware Bay on a Saturday morning headed to Maine and found out the spare was shit. Not a lot of sail repair places in Cape May open late afternoon on Saturday. That 30×10 fixed keel is a great coastal configuration.
    Lotsa boat bucks. Ain’t that always the case?  

  26. https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/12/climate/hurricane-milton-helene-florida-homes/index.html

    “The developers of the new Hunters Point community, Pearl Homes, billed the property as the first “net-zero” single-family home development in the US, meaning residents produce more energy from solar panels than they need, with the excess energy either being stored or sold back to the grid – in a state where most electricity is generated by burning natural gas, a planet-warming fossil fuel.”

    “They also boast some of the most sustainable, energy-efficient and hurricane-proof homes in the country: The streets surrounding the homes are intentionally designed to flood so houses don’t. Power and internet lines are buried to avoid wind damage. The sturdy concrete walls, hurricane-proof windows and doors are fortified with a layer of foam insulation, providing extra safety against the most violent storms.”
     
    “Residents who stayed through both hurricanes told CNN they suffered little to no damage. Neither the heavy surge flooding from Helene nor the strong winds from Milton devastated their homes. Solar power and battery storage kept the lights on all night and the following days.”

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