October 31, 2025
The Myth of the Tariff Boom
Despite all the noise, tariffs haven’t rebuilt much of anything. Trump’s trade walls may have doubled duties on Chinese goods, but they’ve mostly driven up costs, not payrolls. Import prices rose, factory jobs stayed flat, and automation took over whatever growth was left. Tariffs make great sound bites—but they don’t pour concrete or wire a plant.
Biden’s Industrial Policy Play
The real momentum came from Biden’s industrial policy experiment: spend strategically, don’t just punish rivals.
The CHIPS and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Act, and Infrastructure Law put hundreds of billions into semiconductors, clean energy, and transportation. That federal money lit up private investment—new factories in Arizona, EV plants in Michigan, solar manufacturing in Georgia. Washington bet big, and cranes followed.
Trump’s Redirection, Not Reversal
Trump hasn’t dismantled that framework so much as rerouted it. He’s kept the CHIPS Act and infrastructure buildout alive but narrowed their reach with tighter “America-first” sourcing rules. The clean-energy side of Biden’s plan, however, is largely paused—credits frozen, loans redirected to fossil fuels, and new funds channeled into defense, mining, and shipbuilding. The result: more steel and oil, fewer solar panels and batteries.
What’s Really Working
History’s verdict is already whispering: tariffs make headlines; industrial policy builds skylines.
The data show that manufacturing investment rises when the federal government partners with industry, not when it wages trade war. Biden’s version leaned green and futuristic; Trump’s leans industrial and nationalist. But both confirm a core truth—modern manufacturing doesn’t revive itself. It needs cash, coordination, and a plan that lasts longer than a press conference.
Sources
- The Budget Lab at Yale University’s 2025 report on tariff impacts: State of U.S. Tariffs Report
- Federal Reserve Board analysis (May 2025) on price effects: Detecting Tariff Effects on Consumer Prices
- Associated Press coverage of the U.S.–China trade truce announcement: U.S.–China Tariff Framework and Trade Truce Details
- Reuters report on the Trump–Xi meeting outcome: Trump–Xi “Tactical Truce” Leaves Core Tariffs Intact
- Financial Times analysis of the new industrial-policy direction: Trump Halts Clean-Tech Spending, Refocuses Industrial Funds on Energy and Defense
- U.S. Department of Commerce data on manufacturing construction: Manufacturing Construction Spending Data
- Newsweek feature on Trump’s second-term industrial focus: Trump’s Second-Term Industrial Focus
Trail Mix Briefs dig into the data behind the noise — short reads built for people who still like facts with their outrage. Written and researched for TrailMix.cc by Craig Crawford and team. Data verified by ChatGPT.