Reconfiguration Time

40 thoughts on “Reconfiguration Time”

1. might think about reconfiguring this too

    

    

   

    

2. hillary tweets along same line as Richard Wolffe’s op ed in the guardian which said as much but funnier.

   the hill:

   Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Sunday hit back at President Trump after he tweeted that a group of progressive Democrats should “go back” to their home countries.

   “They’re from America, and you’re right about one thing: Currently their government is a complete and total catastrophe,” Clinton tweeted.

    

3. I am still looking at the landscape of the media mostly covering Biden and Sanders, followed by the rest of the men running, including Bennet and Hickenlooper.  The American public who are still looking at politics are scared of what is going on but when asked about the two dozen or so Dems running can name what they have seen, not what takes research or deep political knowledge to know.  Biden and Sanders are both on the down slope to dying of old age before the 2020 election, that has to play to someone’s thinking of voting.
   I am still a Harris Klobochar fan.  Yes, I would vote for Biden if he was the Dem running next year.

4. bbronc, don’t throw lizzie down that “slope to dying of old age before the 2020 election” as females in her situation according to actuarial tables  can look forward to over ten years more than joe & Bernie can. 

   am still thinking a warren/harris prosecution of the twit has legs…. maybe not glamorous gams, but am sure they could run circles around him double-teaming so to speak.

5. patd – That is the reason I did not toss her into the wooden box.  Her problem is she will never have the positive coverage uncle Joe has with the media.  In fact, none of the women ever will.  But, I look at who is the “media” and almost all of it is owned by rich white men.  And only a handful of them at that.

6. BB and I should probably go on the stump at some point for Harris/Klobuchar.  Still open to others such as Warren, Castro, and Booker with the others bringing up the rear.  There may be more clarity after the second debate.  

7. Cannot figure out how Democrats should handle this but the racist tweet episode is another example of Trump simply trying to make them talk about him and nothing else, distract them from their own agenda. This was the trap Hillary fell into, and it is only going to get worse. 

8. Craig – we know the greedy old perverts are not going to admonish the white supremacist.  The Dems cannot stay silent in hopes that the few republican’s who are not racist will vote Dem.  I have come across many racist Dems, but they vote D for other reasons.  By saying in one unified voice that SFB is a racist and must be impeached will anything happen.  If you let your child get away with temper tantrums in public and in the home, that is what you get instead of a young child learning manners.  This guy will never change, and will get worse during the next year. 

9. So I grew up in the deep South and for my whole life spent there, at least after about 1960 or so, I heard stupid racist whites saying that blacks should “Go back to Africa.”  How is what SFB is saying about the Squad ANY different from that? (Spoiler – the answer is – IT IS NOT ANY DIFFERENT).

   As for the Dem nomination – ultimately I follow the numbers.  There is no question right now that only Warren is showing any positive movement since the initial changes following the first debate.  Using 6/29, 7/3 and now as the markers it went like this:  Biden – 32, 27, 27; Harris 7, 15, 14; Warren 13, 14, 16; Sanders 17, 15, 15.  Biden still has an 11 point lead over Warren, 12 over Bernie! and 13 over Harris, and those numbers have remained almost flat since 7/3.  If we only consider a combination within the top 4, Biden and anyone is at 41-43.  Any two others are at 29-31.  And head to head Biden still beats SFB by 2, 4, and 8 points more than the other three in the NBCN/WSJ head to head poll released today.  I’m no mathematician, but I’m not terrible at arithmetic.  When I place bets that is what I rely upon, and the arithmetic says Joe is the best bet to beat SFB as of today.  That’s the goal – so I stick (for now) with my initial position.  And while Lizzie has a couple of points over Harris right now, my gut tells me that Harris would be a better No. 2 pairing with Joe, but I don’t think the margin between her an Warren is great, or even significant.   

10. Solid analysis Pogo. And now that we are at 6 months to Iowa on February 3rd the numbers there and in other early voting states increasingly mean more than national polls.

11. Oh puleeze — Biden is toast
    too old — everything about him smacks of being behind the curve.

    I predict
    Elizabeth Warren wins

12. Craig… interesting analysis.
    I’m still sticking with Harris (I don’t care who she’d pick for VP).  I don’t care who wins Iowa.  I’ve decided to vote for who I want regardless of the polls.  The next debate should be interesting as to who gets to go to the one after.

    Pogo…  you mention a Biden/Harris or Warren ticket.  IMO, two 70 something year olds does not make an exciting ticket …   if an oldster gonna be #1, I’d like to see a younger #2.

13. last seen Iowa poll (12 days ago) according to the hill:

    Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) have surged into a virtual tie with former Vice President Joe Biden in Iowa after last week’s debates, according to a new survey conducted for a Democratic group. 

    The poll, conducted by Democratic pollster David Binder for the group Focus on Rural America, shows Warren leading the field with 20 percent of the vote, a statistical tie with Harris at 18 percent and Biden at 17 percent.

     

    like renee said, an old #1 should be paired with a young #2

     additionally have a #1 born and bred in the heartland and a person of color somewhere on the ticket.   warren/harris fits that bill.

     

     

14. “Her problem is she will never have the positive coverage uncle Joe has with the media.  In fact, none of the women ever will.”

    bbronc, yeah, the media vis a vis woman candidate coverage always has that little “but…” about it.

    way they say it kinda reminds me of the old Seinfeld episode punchline ” Not That There’s Anything Wrong With That” 

     

15. A perfect example of why we should say no to Joe is his “plan” to keep Obamacare

16. 

    from feb. ’19 Philadelphia Inquirer:

    There always seems to be something about a woman running for President of the United States that makes her, well, unlikeable or untrustworthy or just unpresidential. How is it that other countries have been able to choose women leaders and survive their administrations? Margaret Thatcher, Angela Merkel, Golda Meir anyone?

17. Old young?   A Biden / Buddajudge ticket?

18. BTW…  I got my 2 new fur babies this past weekend…  the one below is Mia
     
     

19. and this one is Felix…
     

20. RR
    So adorable — we have a cat named Kitcat — she was here when we moved in and we thought she was a male and called her Mr. Kitty until someone who knew better pointed out our error.    She is a fierce catcher of mice and once brought in a giant wood rat

21. As far as possible the combined ticket should reflect and balance gender, ethnicity, and geography.  

    Harris/Castro – gender yes, geography yes, ethnicity both POC

    Warren/Harris – gender both female, geography – Both coastal, ethnicity – yes

    Klobuchar/Castro or vice versa – gender yes, geography yes, ethnicity yes

    Biden/Harris or Warren – gender yes, ethnicity yes, geography both coastal

    Feel free to measure other pairings. 

     

22. Renee, I was just looking at a ticket from the top 4. I’m not saying that is what will or even should happen. Would I prefer that Harris topped the ticket, or Amy or Lizzie? Emotionally, yes. And I’ll go there when I’m convinced that will lead to a winning ticket. 

23. Jamie, why a balanced gender?  for how many years have an unbalanced male only ticket been successful, won elections and screwed the country?

    if 2 over-qualified, but female, senators cannot convince voters they are preferable to the 2 under-qualified males now in office then god help us all.

24.  the hill:

    Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Monday urged House Democrats to support a resolution to condemn President Trump for tweeting that four minority Democratic congresswomen should “go back” to their countries.

    “The House cannot allow the President’s characterization of immigrants to our country to stand. Our Republican colleagues must join us in condemning the President’s xenophobic tweets,” Pelosi wrote in a letter to House Democrats announcing a “forthcoming” resolution from Reps. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.), who was born in Poland, Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), and other Democratic members who were born abroad.

     

    “This weekend, the President went beyond his own low standards using disgraceful language about Members of Congress,” Pelosi added. “Rather than attack Members of Congress, he should work with us for humane immigration policy that reflects American values.”

25. KC, after the debate you said that if Biden’s numbers continue to drop he’ll be in negative territory by …  Well, they didn’t.  After the initial drop they stabilized at 11+ points above anyone else.  If I ever visit your restaurant I’m ordering toast.  
     
    NYTimes is reporting that prosecutors told Judge Berman in Epstein’s case they found in a safe in his home piles of cash, diamonds and an expired passport with his picture under an assumed name saying he lived in Saudi Arbia.  Flight risk, anyone?

26. Pogo
    He is continuing to drop.   I think a flood of candidates will drop out after the 2nd debate and their supporters will be easy for Harris or Warren to “poach.”
    Avocado toast is the big thing here — what would Biden toast look like?   Hmmmm beans on toast or something more equivocal? 

    Is Joe Biden Still The Front-Runner?

27. KC, in what polls does he continue to drop?  The numbers I reported are RCP averages.    Even the “chat” you posted has this in it:

    perry: He is clearly the front-runner, without caveats:

    He leads in the national polls.

    He leads in the early state polls.

    Even Democratic voters who don’t like him see him as the most electable candidate, and I think that matters because when voters go to the polls next year, they will be thinking about who can beat President Trump first and foremost.

    He has a racially diverse coalition, which means he can potentially make up for losses in the early states by doing well with black voters in the South.

    And the links to national poll averages link back to the RCP averages I noted.  Not to be too pointed about it, but show me where he is continuing to slip.  While your opinion that he’s continuing to slip is worth considering, where is the polling to support it?

    And a flood of candidates may not make the 2nd debate if I understand the rules. Regardless of who has what %age of the dem support at this point, I haven’t seen any polling that tells me that any candidate does as well as Biden against SFB.  That is the end game, and I couldn’t give a rat’s ass about age, gender, race or policy differences if in the end one candidate has the best chance to beat SFB – and whoever that candidate is, I will back him or her wholeheartedly.  Today it’s Biden. When that changes, so will my support.

28. ABT all the way

29. Patd

    I would absolutely love an all female ticket.  There have been all male tickets for all but two campaigns that I can remember.  I’m just thinking purely from the idea of electibility and appealing to the broadest possible electorate.  Women in power scare a huge percentage of voters (see above “just not that …” cartoon).  Since we must win the Senate and the White House, the best way to do that is balance.

     

30. Biden bores me silly … always has and as Obama reflected “Joe says things” Biden has a tendency to open mouth and insert both feet.  This certainly does not make him a bad man plus most of his career he has been on the side of the angels or at least angel adjacent for the time period.  Still I would certainly vote for him as I would vote for any of the Democratic candidates except Bernie.  I remain in the Never Bernie now and forever.  Don’t wish the finger waving, invective screaming old coot any harm, but the best thing he could do for all concerned is go home and shut up.

     

31. 

32. Can Biden energize the under 40 year olds ? If he can rouse them to a 2018-like Blue Wave, great. Can he lead a national pussy hat event ? Can he even march in one ? He’s the safe candidate, but can he get out a vote that’s big enough to roll the Senate ? I doubt it. 
    Women will take this country by storm, if they are led by a woman who has vision and plan to make that plan real. This is why I think that Dems and the country will choose Warren. 
     
     
     
     

33. XR, her star is certainly rising.  We’ll see, won’t we?

34. If Bernie is the Dem choice, I’ll vote for him. Call me a Yellow Bernie Democrat if you like, but whoever wins that nomination will have my vote in November*.
    *That’s a huge incentive to keep kicking, doncha think ?

35. I feel like Captain Xhab, clumping up and down the quarterdeck, while plotting to harpoon the ferocious orange whale Moby trump. Aaaarrgghhh

36. Call me IshRep…(or give me back my leg – one or the other.)

37. Oh, for what it’s worth in the Tour de France, Julian Alaphilippe extended his lead in the tour to 1’12”, with Geraint Thomas moving to 2nd from 5th (although keeping his 1’12” time gap) as Ciccione, Pinot and Bennett lost time to the leaders, dropping to 10th, 11th and 27th after today’s stage.  That’s odd for what’s considered a flat stage, although it had 4 categorized climbs, but all were 3s and 4s, so not very steep or long.

38. SFB is a racist and anyone who still supports him is to

39. russians, racists, rapists & relatives

40. NEW THREAD

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