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Slate breaks the traditional information embargo on election coverage with estimated results throughout the day.

By WhyskyJack, a Trail Mix Contributor

It is why the Cubbies are no longer the lovable losers and why my Royals won last year.

It is at the heart of the Clinton campaign decision making.

And in a controversial move Slate is going to use it to give us real time estimates on who is winning throughout the day.

From Slate:

Here’s a longer description of how this whole thing works. The project can be broken down into two phases: what happens before Tuesday, and what happens on the day itself. In the lead-up to Election Day, VoteCastr conducted large-sample surveys in eight battleground states. Unlike a typical media poll that might ask hundreds of respondents dozens of questions, these surveys presented thousands of people with just a handful of queries each. The results were then run through predictive models to determine the probabilities of each voter in each of the eight states casting a ballot for Clinton, Trump, Gary Johnson, or Jill Stein. (VoteCastr did not include Evan McMullin in its models. The independent candidate is only on the ballot in two states we are tracking, Colorado and Iowa.)

The other piece of the pre–Election Day puzzle is early voting, which now accounts for an estimated 30 to 40 percent of the general election vote. Local officials collect and report information about who voted early in each state in advance of the election, and VoteCastr then compares that public info with its own private voter files. To understand how this works in practice, consider my early ballot, which I cast in Iowa City last week. Though VoteCastr doesn’t know who I voted for, it can make an educated guess based on the things it does know about me: my age, race, and party registration. Our friends at VoteCastr tell me the model believes there’s a 97 percent chance I voted for Clinton. When my name shows up on the list of people who voted early in the Hawkeye State, VoteCastr will use that number to fill in the blank. These voter preference estimates allow VoteCastr to make more specific forecasts about the early voting split than most other modelers, which simply sort returned ballots by party registration.

Slate is taking a lot of criticism for doing this while the polls are still open, but if they go ahead with it and it works (a risk in itself) then the flood gates are open.

Is it good? Is it bad?

Eh, I don’t know but I really don’t see how anyone can stop it.

Slate’s Votecastr page:
slate.com/votecastr

More Posts by WhskyJack

VoteCastr Estimates (4:40pm ET)

“The first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers.”

By PatD, a Trail Mix Contributor

What with the violent behavior such as “Donald Trump Supporters Scream Nazi Salute, ‘Light the Motherf–ker On Fire’ at Black Lives Matter Supporter” (described by the wrap from last December) and the shouts of “lock her up” and “execute her” of a similar mob reported by msn last Friday, it’s not inconceivable that their next chant come post-election day (whether they win or lose) will be to do in those who believe in the rule of law and upholding the constitution.

Although “kill all the lawyers” is usually said in jest, these days you can’t be so sure.

Revolutions, insurrections, coups and such have generally begun this way.  Same-o same-o sentiments ran rampant even back when the Bard penned the line and as the wall street journal noted:
The line comes from Shakespeare’s “Henry VI, Part 2” and is spoken by Dick the Butcher, the dopey henchman of rebel leader Jack Cade.
According to the attorneys’ interpretation—one supported by many but not all English scholars—Shakespeare’s point is to portray lawyers as the guardians of the rule of law who stand in the way of a fanatical mob.

It could be argued that Shakespeare was tapping into fears of insurrection and civil unrest among the noble classes. But, he said, the proliferation of lawyers also generated resentment among commoners who couldn’t afford them and viewed them as aligned with the powerful elite.

More Posts by PatD

Burn the Floor heats up the ‘trail’. Great music, great footwork and costumes. The perfect break from politics. Enjoy the music and the dance, but most of all enjoy your day!

More Posts by Jace

By GrannyMumanToog, a Trail Mix Contributor

We all need to be watchful and wary on election day. The article linked below pertains to Nebraska, but contains info that may be useful in this hateful climate of potential voter challenge and/or intimidation that we find ourselves facing in this election.

The article gave me ideas of what to look out for and what could happen. It also spurred me to look up the law in my own state so that I could be forearmed on Tuesday. I also intend to bring my phone with me and take pictures if I see something untoward. I live in a largely Hispanic voter poling district so at this point I think anything is possible. Lincoln Journal Star: Election Officials Prepare For More Voter Challenges At Polls

As always the most important thing is to get the vote out. Share the information with your followers.

You can look up the voter challenge rules pertaining to your own state through this link: A pdf listing of the laws in each state

More Posts by GrannyMumanToog