Eprof: Arizona Blue?

By Eprof2, a Trail Mix Contributor

Craig asked me last week if Arizona could flip to blue in November. My initial reaction was not likely. But, in this topsy-turvy election of 2016, I guess anything is possible. There isn’t any clear evidence, thus far, that Arizona will go blue in November.

The AZ primary for all offices excluding presidential candidates, which were held in March, takes place on August 30th. All eyes are on the McCain campaign as he seeks reelection for the sixth time to the Senate. He is still well liked in AZ, but he could be vulnerable.

kelliwardMcCain’s Republican opponent at the end of the month is a Tea Party activist, Kelli Ward, who holds a legislative seat from the Lake Havasu area, a rural northwest location far from the two metro areas. However, she is an ardent supporter of Donald Trump, who won the AZ Republican presidential primary by a huge margin. Her campaign posters are all over the state with her picture with Donald Trump. As almost everyone knows, here and across the country, Donald Trump attacked John McCain as a loser from a POW camp. That garnered a lot of support for McCain here in AZ. Yet, McCain continues to endorse Trump while calling him out for his attacks on the Khans and the Veterans’ Administration, McCain’s favorite government agency.

While folks here keep asking why doesn’t McCain “unendorsed” Trump, I think the following is occurring: McCain is going to continue to endorse Trump until he can defeat Kelli Ward in the primary; thus, not giving up any support from the far right now. After the primary, McCain will be more free to criticize Trump, maybe even “unendorsed” him, to move back to the center and try and take votes away from the presumptive Democratic candidate, Ann Kirkpatrick, a centrist who currently holds the Congressional District One seat. McCain is playing the ultimate political game of seeking votes by changing his positions based on candidates, elections, and the mood of the electorate.

mccainCampThe AZ Congressional delegation is split 5-4 in favor of Republicans. This year, depending on the Trump phenomenon, only the CD1, where I live, is in danger of losing a seat to the Republican Party, making the next delegation, 6-3. The Democrats do not have a strong, well-known candidate to replace Ann Kirkpatrick as she seeks McCain’s Senate seat. CD1 is the largest district in the state and runs from the Utah border to the Mexican border with mostly small towns. Flagstaff and parts of Casa Grande and Tucson (small parts) are inside the badly gerrymandered district. Trump and former governor, Jan Brewer, are supporting the Pinal County Sheriff, Paul Babeu, who has always been considered Joe Arpaio junior, as he continues to berate Mexicans and the border fence is his symbol of law and order. He has been elected twice to the Sheriff’s office as a Republican.

The state legislature is solidly Republican, as are all the state-wide offices, including the governor. The state treasurer, Jeff DeWitt, just became Trump’s national campaign finance director, without giving up his state position. He says he can do both jobs, i.e, he wants to keep his state salary while working for Trump. Even though many have seen this as a conflict of interest, he remains in office. The Republican state legislature, most of whom support Trump, are not going to raise impeachment or other charges against him.

Flipping to blue. Not likely under normal election circumstances. What say you, Jace?

Note from Craig: Thanks to Eprof for this analysis. We welcome contributors with thoughts about important races in their regions. Simply email me for details on how to post: help@craigcrawford.com

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NBC: ‘Clinton Bounce is Real’

First Read (NBC News): A spate of new polling shows that the initial evidence of a significant post-convention bounce for Hillary Clinton is looking like it COULD become a sturdy lead for the Democratic nominee. A new Franklin and Marshall College poll of Pennsylvania shows Clinton with an 11 point lead over Trump, 49 percent to 38 percent. A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll of Michigan voters finds a nine point lead for the former secretary of state, 41 percent to 32 percent. And a fresh WBUR/MassINC poll this morning shows Clinton opening up a 15 point lead over the GOP nominee in New Hampshire, 47 percent to 32 percent. Add that to national polls this week from NBC News|SurveyMonkey (Clinton +8), CNN/ORC (Clinton +9) and FOX News (Clinton +10).

Bottom line: Trump couldn’t have picked a worse week to have a DISASTROUS week. Clinton was already in the midst of a convention bump, and Trump exacerbated it with his series of unforced errors and unnecessary fights. The next question: How does the Trump campaign react in the next week, when even more national and state polls are likely to show a similar gap between the two candidates? — NBC News

Hillary’s bounce could be highest since Bill’s in a half century:Convention-Bounces

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Mexicans, Muslims ….. Yippies and Hippies

By SJWNY, a Trail Mix Contributor

Most people hear the Republican Nominee for President & ask, Why? I hear the same nut job & ask, Why …. Not…… compare his rhetoric to another famous Republican Politician with, uh, tax & media difficulties? Step right up, Spiro T. Agnew, the Veep of my childhood, the only Politician I have ever written to. (The auto-signed form letter I received will be treasured always.)

agnewButton

For ease of presentation, the Republican Nominee/Nut Job will have his actual quotes in boldface; the late, unlamented Spiro T. will growl at us in italics.

I think I am, actually humble. I think I’m much more humble than you would understand.

I apologize for lying to you. I promise I won’t deceive you except in matters of this sort.

From a moral standpoint, I believe in it. But you also have to get elected. And there’s no way a Republican is going to beat a Democrat when the Republican is saying, ‘We’re going to cut your Social Security’ and the Democrat is saying, ‘We’re going to keep it and give you more.’

I have often been accused of putting my foot in my mouth, but I will never put my hands in your pockets.

We won with poorly educated. I love the poorly educated.

An intellectual is a man who doesn’t know how to park a bike.

You know, it really doesn’t matter what (the media) write as long as you’ve got a young and beautiful piece of ass.

Some newspapers are fit only to line the bottom of bird cages.

Appreciate the congrats for being right on radical Islamic terrorism, I don’t want congrats, I want toughness & vigilance. We must be smart!

Confronted with the choice, the American people would choose the policeman’s truncheon over the anarchist’s bomb.

I think the only card she has is the woman’s card. She has got nothing else going. Frankly, if Hillary Clinton were a man, I don’t think she would get 5% of the vote. And the beautiful thing is women don’t like her, OK?

Three things have been difficult to tame: the oceans, fools and women. We may soon be able to tame the oceans; fools and women will take a little longer.

***

An aside: Reading a NYT article dated October 10, 1973 (the day Spiro T. resigned) there was a paragraph titled “Speculation About Successor.” It listed a group of men Richard Nixon might nominate as Agnew’s replacement. Two names listed? Attorney General Elliott Richardson & Deputy Attorney General William D. Ruckelshaus. The Saturday Night Massacre occurred October 20th.

Can’t make this stuff up.

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Thinking about important stuff

By Whskyjack, a Trail Mix Contributor

It’s time for a break from all the nasty stuff that passes for politics this election

Let’s take time to look at the big picture.

Last weekend the Hispanic church that is our neighborhood partner did their annual Fiesta de Ninos.   A celebration of their children.   From what I understand it is a big deal in Mexico and It is something we don’t do. We have mother’s day and father’s day but no day set aside just for our children.

They all had a great time and at the end the church passed out the book bags filled with school supplies that you all helped to buy.

Today as I looked at all the pictures  I was  reminded of what this election is really about. It is not really about me or other people my age.  It is ultimately about the future of these children.

festa ninos

Their parents know this and work hard at low paying jobs. They sacrifice. Do without so they can get their children in to better schools. As an example, Veronica, a friend and neighbor,  lives in a house that has no flooring, just the bare subfloors but her children are in good private schools and are going on to college. Carpeting can wait.

So let’s take a few moments to celebrate life.

Cause I gotta admit, in spite of all the nastiness we hear on TV, from where I was standing this weekend the future is looking good.

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“O Captain! my Captain, our fearful trip is done,

whitmanThe ship has weather’d every rack,
the prize we sought is won,
The port is near, the bells I hear,
the people all exulting,
While follow eyes the steady keel,
the vessel grim and daring;
But O heart! heart! heart!
O the bleeding drops of red,
Where on the deck my Captain lies,
Fallen cold and dead.

O Captain! my Captain! rise up and hear the bells;
Rise up–for you the flag is flung–for you the bugle trills,
For you bouquets and ribbon’d wreaths–for you the shores a-crowding,
For you they call, the swaying mass, their eager faces turning;
Here Captain! dear father!
The arm beneath your head!
It is some dream that on the deck,
You’ve fallen cold and dead.

My Captain does not answer, his lips are pale and still,
My father does not feel my arm, he has no pulse nor will,
The ship is anchor’d safe and sound, its voyage closed and done,
From fearful trip the victor ship comes in with object won;
Exult O shores, and ring O bells!
But I with mournful tread,
Walk the deck my Captain lies,
Fallen cold and dead.

Walt Whitman, “Leaves of Grass”, Philadelphia: David McKay, 1891-92

By Blue Bronc, a Trail Mix Contributor

The sheer arrogance.  The absolute lack of empathy.  The stupid response.  The sadness of America for having voted for a person who would be better in an assisted living home than loose on the streets.

khizr-khan-addresses-dataWho?  Trump.  I just listened to his idiotic and completely moronic response to the mother and father, Ghazala Khan and Khizr Khanf, who spoke at Hillary’s nomination talking about the son they lost in the Bush war.  Their son was killed, the father took the idiot (even worse than the Village Idiot) to task and stated the head of the Republicans had “not sacrificed”.

The one with his buddy on his head, a dead orange rat, stated that he “sacrificed”.  He f*$&ing “sacrificed” by hiring a thousand workers.  Jesus Alou (hay-sus ah-lou).  The guy has no idea of the world.  Or of what “sacrifice” means.  He “hired” (which I decline to believe) a thousand people and for that he “sacrificed”.  He was born with a silver spoon in his mouth.

At what point do the blue collar supporters realize that hiring a thousand workers to build a tower (which will be bankrupt as soon as it is built) counts as much as going into a combat zone and being killed.  Or at least that is what the idiot (I’m sorry, he could be suffering mental disease and should not be called an idiot) is telling the media.  He sacrificed by hiring workers is his sworn statement.

His sacrifice by hiring laborers is the same as a mother’s loss of her son fighting for the United States?  At what point will his supporters see he is a carny barker?  When will his dismissal of their children’s sacrifices in the military mean something to them?  It had better be pretty soon.

“I, _____, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me, according to regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice. So help me God.”

It might have the statement “obey the orders of the President. . .”  That means legal orders. Not torturing.  Illegal orders from any officer, non-com or other military or civilian authority are not obeyed.

Notice it says “. . .defend. . .”  Yup that means defend as in to the death.  Just like the son did.

That the fool says he “sacrificed” is to make me barf.  And, I hope any and all veteran do the same.

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