Let’s talk about something other than the Presidential race!

By Dvitale300, a Trail Mix Contributor

There is a big misconception about the Senatorial race this year.  That misconception is that Trump is the one making it possible for the Democrats to take back the Senate.  Although he may have an impact – I heard the other day that only 6% of voters will vote for one party’s candidate for President and another party’s for Senate.

The real impact is geography and timing.  This year there are 24 Republican Senate seats up for re-election, and only 10 Democratic seats in contest.   This, combined with the fact that quite a few of the Republican seats in contest are those that swung Republican after the backlash election of 2010, which was Obama’s first mid-term election. Right out of the gate it was predestined that the Democrats would/could take the Senate back.  Trump is only icing on the electoral cake.

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball

It is the press that wants everyone to think that this is a ‘to the wire’ thing re: the Senate going Democratic with Trump as the key player.  They get viewers, ratings and increased advertising revenue for fostering this misconception.

The real story here lies in two areas.  First we have the House of Representatives, which has a 247 Republican to 188 Democratic margin; that’s a difference of 59 seats.  While the Republicans at the state level have been gerrymandering the hell out of districts, should the Democrats take back 30 of those slots it will send shutters through the halls of D.C. politics.

workTogetherThe second story here is the gubernatorial races in which currently, Republicans hold 31 seats, the most since 1999.  This year there are 12 governor races in contest, eight of which are currently held by Democrats.  Seven of these races have an incumbent that cannot run due to term limits.  Then there is Mike Pence from Indiana, who withdrew from the race.  As a side note is North Carolina: Republican Pat McCrory is running for re-election — in a state that is now showing in the Clinton column.

Should the Democrats manage to knock off a few of the Republican Governors this will affect the make-up of congressional districts (for the 2020 census) and possibly change/level the playing field.

If you live in one of these states, what do you see happening regarding your gubernatorial race?

More Posts by Dvitale300

Is this 1992 all over again?

By Dvitale300, a Trail Mix Contributor

(L to R) Democratic vice-presidential candidate Al

“Riding the bus may seem like a throwback, but Democrats say it is the wave of the future in Presidential campaigns. It is more successful than the conventional hopping from airport to local television studio, a technique perfected by the Republicans and copied by the Democrats to bypass the less flattering national press.”

This quote, from a 1992 NYT article, describes the media-enthrallment with the post-convention midwestern bus tour of the Clinton-Gore campaign.  This weekend the Clinton-Kaine campaign began a very similar tour by bus, starting in Pennsylvania and then on to Ohio.

Rachel Maddow just reported that the Trump-Pence ticket has ZERO campaign events scheduled for this weekend.  Huh?

With the “Big Dog” helping with the campaign strategy for the general election, how much similarity will we see with his 1992 campaign, and how might the Clinton / Trump campaigns differ (including their message) from each other?