Super Tuesday Vote Counting Time

Who gets the bigger night? Hillary or Trump, or both?

Poll Closing Times (ET)

  • Alabama, 8 p.m.
  • Alaska, midnight
  • Arkansas, 8:30 p.m.
  • Colorado, caucuses begin at 9 p.m.
  • Georgia, 7 p.m.
  • Massachusetts, 8 p.m.
  • Minnesota, caucuses begin at 8 p.m.
  • Oklahoma, 8 p.m.
  • Tennessee, 8 p.m.
  • Texas, 9 p.m.
  • Vermont, 7 p.m.
  • Virginia, 7 p.m.
  • Wyoming, various times for caucuses
  • American Samoa, caucuses begin at 2 p.m.

Trump Tuesday

Like it or not, it is likely today’s news will be all about Donald Trump sweeping Super Tuesday. Hillary will too, but everyone expects that she has already won the nomination.

Will Rubio win anything? And if he loses his home state of Florida on March 15th how does he remain viable? If Kasich doesn’t win his home state of Ohio March 22 he has said he will be gone.

_85478328_gettyimages-487396244If Cruz wins his home state of Texas today he stays in. Meaning that the Republican race ends up Trump vs Cruz? What is an intelligent Republican voter to do?

Watching Trump’s wife, Melania, on CNN last night I see something coming from their camp, an effort to diffuse and tame his beastly image. For instance, she criticized his choice to repeat that horrible word at one of his rallies. Also beginning to see him walk back some of his foolishness, in his own weird way.

Call it the “Just Kidding” pivot. ‘Hey folks I was just sounding like a dumb ass to get dumb ass votes.’ Kinda like when Reagan said trees cause pollution, and lots of other dumb stuff.

reagan-mooseStill don’t know whether Reagan believed the nutty things he said or if he was just taunting Democrats into self destructive distraction. Suspect the latter.

Dems can hope that Trump is as crazy as he sounds. But what if he isn’t, and there is a fox in there somewhere?

Wouldn’t be the first time that liberal Democrats were fooled and beaten by cynical anti-intellectualism.

Housekeeping: Many thanks to our volunteer artist, Claudine Hellmuth, who designed our new logo banner above, very newspapery and, as PatD noted, kind of citified. Nevertheless it’s still okay to read and write in your bathrobes and sweat pants, so long as they are reasonably clean.

Hillary, What Now?

20160228_143351The only downside to the Clinton campaign putting down the Sanders threat is that now six months of sitting on her party’s lead lie ahead. The Clintons have some history of stumbling when on top, while surging when challenged. But more than that, how to stay relevant for such a long period without competition, as the Republican contest dominates the news?

Clinton’s carefully worded and teleprompted victory speech in South Carolina Saturday night, congratulating Sanders on a hard-fought race (implying it’s over), declaring that her campaign now goes national and directly targeting Trump’s words, seemed very much designed to be a nomination victory turn, not just celebrating a single state win. I just wonder if she would be better off pretending this is still a competitive nomination battle for a while longer. Now her future primary wins will be deemed uneventful and anti-climatic.

Or, maybe buyer’s remorse sets in and and gives Sanders a bit of a boost.

This calls for extreme creativity. Democrat and Republican bosses both are living in a dream world, not understanding that their traditional models are imploding. Which explains Trump and Sanders.

Independents outnumber affiliated voters. Soon, the percentage of voters self-identifying as independent will outnumber Democrats and Republicans combined. The first party that figures this out and how to deal with it will prevail. Trump is closest to doing that in this cycle. Bernie almost did, but failed.

Hillary’s Next Win; Whither Bernie?

2016-02-22-1456172662-1597066-BernieSanders-thumbIt is not whether, but by how much does Hillary win the South Carolina primary today, and whither Bernie? The next collection of states on Super Tuesday present few opportunities for Sanders. It now seems he has become, and perhaps always was, a protest candidate for voters who would rather cast at windmills.

WHITHER: “To what place or state?” (Websters dictionary)

Trump’s Best News: Cruz, Rubio Still Here

So long as Cruz and Rubio stay viable Trump wins. His rivals did just that in the debate last night, landing punches that will encourage their donors.

488x-1The best news for Trump is that Cruz might win his home state of Texas next week. And that Rubio is the darling of establishment Republicans who despise Trump and Cruz.

Two-thirds of GOP voters don’t want Trump, but so long as they are split between his rivals his one-third keeps him on top. If Trump can keep these two humming while he whistles past them he will be the presumptive nominee by late March.