As Maine Goes So Goes the Nation

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Wiki:

“As Maine goes, so goes the nation” was once a maxim in United States politics. The phrase described Maine‘s reputation as a bellwether state for presidential elections. Maine’s September election of a governor predicted the party outcome of the November presidential election in 22 out of the 29 presidential election years from 1820 to 1932: namely 1820–1844, 1852, 1860–1880, 1888, 1896–1908 and 1920–1932; more importantly, as Maine was a generally Republican-leaning state, the margin of the September elections compared to expectations could predict national November results more than the identity of the winning party in Maine. A contest still won by the Republicans but with a narrower margin than usual would still predict good Democratic results nationally.

[Also see from the Library of Congress As Maine goes, so goes the nation (loc.gov)]

Maine disqualifies Trump from presidential primary ballot, citing insurrection clause | Donald Trump | The Guardian

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29 thoughts on “As Maine Goes So Goes the Nation”

  1. Bellwether Definition & Meaning – Merriam-Webster

    one that takes the lead or initiative : LEADER
    also : an indicator of trends
    […]
    Because it suggests the act of forecasting, one might be inclined to think that bellwether has something to do with weather. But the wether in bellwether has nothing to do with meteorology. Instead, to learn whither wether, we must head to the sheep farm. We usually think of sheep more as followers than leaders, but in a flock one sheep must lead the way. Since long ago, it has been common practice for shepherds to hang a bell around the neck of one sheep in their flock, thereby designating it the lead sheep. This animal was historically called the bellwether, a word formed by a combination of the Middle English words belle (meaning “bell”) and wether (a noun that refers to a male sheep, and today specifically to a castrated male sheep). It eventually followed that bellwether would come to refer to someone who takes initiative or who actively establishes a trend that is taken up by others. This usage first appeared in English in the 15th century and has remained in the language ever since.

  2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/12/28/maine-decision-remove-trump-pdf/?itid=hp-top-table-main_p001_f001

    Maine is the second state to block former president Donald Trump from running again under a part of the U.S. Constitution that prevents insurrectionists from holding office. In a decision Thursday, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows (D) wrote that “the U.S. Constitution does not tolerate an assault on the foundations of our government, and [Maine law] requires me to act in response.”
    The decision is sure to be appealed. Last week, Colorado Supreme Court found Trump could not appear on the ballot there, and the Colorado Republican Party has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to review the case. The nation’s high court could resolve for all states whether Trump can run again.
    You can read Bellows’ decision below. If you’re unable to read the full text on mobile, the full pdf is available here.

  5. cheers from dr. mary, the psychologist

    Trump Being Kicked Off Maine Ballot ‘Huge Victory for Democracy’—Mary Trump (msn.com)

    Mary Trump, the estranged niece of former President Donald Trump, has welcomed the decision by Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows to remove her uncle from the state’s 2024 primary ballot, which she described as “a HUGE Victory for democracy.”
    […]
    On her Substack blog, Mary Trump quoted part of Bellows’ ruling on her uncle, in which the Maine secretary of state said: “I do not reach this conclusion lightly. Democracy is sacred…I am mindful that no Secretary of State has ever deprived a presidential candidate of ballot access based on Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment.
    “I am also mindful, however, that no presidential candidate has ever before engaged in insurrection. The oath I swore to uphold the Constitution comes first above all, and my duty under Maine’s election laws, when presented with a Section 336 challenge, is to ensure that candidates who appear on the primary ballot are qualified for the office they seek.”
    Mary Trump commented “HELL YEAH!” adding: “NO ONE should give Donald a free pass…not according to Section 3 of the 14th amendment—the Equal Protection clause.”
    She added: “This is what JUSTICE look like. What happens now? Over a DOZEN states may do the same—kick Donald right off the ballot. Make no mistake: This is a HUGE Victory for democracy.”

  6. nikki making bellwether sounds which might just turn some of those non-maga GOPer sheep  in NH primary to vote for christie instead of continuing to follow her.  for example the slavery gaffe and this

    the hill:

    Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley said on Thursday that, if elected president, she would pardon former President Trump, arguing it would be “in the best interest of the country.”

    “I would pardon Trump,” Haley said at a campaign event, according to a video captured by NBC News.

    “If he is found guilty, a leader needs to think about what’s in the best interest of the country,” Haley said. “What’s in the best interest of the country is not to have an 80-year-old man sitting in jail, that continues to divide our country.”

    “What’s in the best interest of the country would be to pardon him, so that we can move on as a country and no longer talk about him,” she added.

  7. Thanks, Pat. Don’t know how much of a bellwether is Dr. Mary, but I always appreciate her point of view on her crazy uncle. 

  8. Was very impressed with the Maine Secretary of State on TV last night, she came across quite calm and reasonable, not the monstrous thug the MAGA mob portraying.

    This AP article is a balanced overview of the issue but I don’t agree the Court must prevent “chaos”. They welcomed a chaos of contradictory state laws on abortion, why not this? – AP: “Until the high court rules, any state could adopt its own standard on whether Trump, or anyone else, can be on the ballot. That’s the sort of legal chaos the court is supposed to prevent.”

  9. His most egregious act was his deliberate failure to act as his minions attacked. 

    She also concluded that Mr. Trump “was aware of the likelihood for violence and at least initially supported its use given he both encouraged it with incendiary rhetoric and took no timely action to stop it.”

  10. Another notable bell-ringer was Ivan Pavlov. 

    A lot of people may be familiar with Ivan Pavlov and his Classical Conditioning experiment. In the experiment, Pavlov rang a bell whenever he gave food to his dogs. After repeating the process many times, he tried ringing the bell without giving food. The dogs salivated at the sound of the bell in the same way they usually salivated for the food in front of them. The dogs had been conditioned to give the same response to the bell’s ringing! Classical conditioning is defined as “a behavioral learning theory according to which a stimulus is paired with another stimulus that elicits a known response that serves to produce the same response when used alone.”

    Salivating (or retching), we’re increasingly conditioned one way or another in our response to the sound of the word trump.

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/pavlovs-experiment-does-ring-bell-tejasvini-verma

  11. possibly making things even more chaotic, congress critters are empowered in 2 sections of 14th amendment.

    •  last sentence of section 3 that disqualifies an engager in insurrection:  “But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.”

    and

    •  Section 5

    “The Congress shall have the power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.”

  14. Thomas Jefferson saw Trump coming:

    “If once elected and at a second outvoted, he will pretend false votes, foul play, hold possession of the reins of government, be supported by the states voting for him.”

    — Letter to James Madison advocating term limits for the presidency

  17. His supporters are in jail because of actions they did. It is much harder to prove that Trump was in anyway involved or an active participant. Advocating for a certain legal theory and working with others to advocate for it is not rebellion, it is speech and assembly. Both protected by the constitution. A political demonstration that got out of control and turned into a riot, also, is not rebellion. The fact that there were people in the mob who were engaged in an act of organized rebellion doesn’t mean that Trump or any of the other rioters were engaging in rebellion.
    Although Trump walked right up to the edge, I suspect it will be hard to prove he was a rebel.
     I believe this will be the escape route that the Court uses to avoid making the hard choices, they will punt and make no changes to existing law.
    Do I think Trump lead, organized and approved of what happened Jan 6? Yes. Can it be proved? I’m doubtful.
    Jack

  19.  
    speech and assembly

    neither of those rights are absolute

    tape or testimony could prove his intent, i assume Smith has both

  20. jack, don’t forget the latter half of “shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof” from section 3 of 14th amdmt.

    he certainly aided and comforted them by not sending in troops to quell the rioting insurrectionists, telling them he loved them and comforting them even more by promising to pardon them.

  21. Jack Smith is sitting on much more than we know.  He’s got several trials to go thru yet.   Theft and possible distribution of national intelligence secrets and such.
    Like that Michigan electors phone call which popped up.

  22. The central argument of Trump‘s legal defense is essentially that he’s too stupid to understand written English, but he says he’s a stable genius

  23. — Letter to James Madison advocating term limits for the presidency

     
    One term, six years, no reelections. 
    Would solve a ton of problems.

  24. ivy, sure glad that the loser was NOT in the WH for longer than he was… those 4 years were 4 years too much. just think of more harm he would have done knowing he didn’t have to campaign again.  in that case, an impeachment conviction would have been imperative to ward off his plan to become dictator.

  25. Pat, point well taken. Such a maniacal megalomaniac should never ever have been elected in the first place. We got him out in the nick of time – though too late for millions he destroyed – and by the skin of our teeth. It could have been so much worse, and I’m not sleeping easy knowing he can get in there again. 

  26. Bobo is not going to affect me. I get to vote for another good Joe. But all my relatives will be stuck with her. Some may like that; others won’t. But they’ve already gotten used to being Stuck with Buck. She may get primaried (let’s hope.)
     

  29. SFB called the insurrectionists to DC/held a rally on the day of the count; he knew they were armed and that they weren’t there to hurt him; he said they were going to march to the Capitol, said “fight like hell,” and would’ve been there himself if the SS had allowed it; knew what was going on and that Pence was in danger; he sat on his tiny hands while his lackeys tried to carry out his plan to overthrow the government.   Orange Adolf led the insurrection.  He was their Commander-In-Thief.  

    No matter the outcome of 2024, it’s going to be difficult.  As KO said in January of 2021, this was just a rehearsal.

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