40 thoughts on “Not Good”

  1. another day and another poll

    ABC news:

    A year before the nation votes, top Democratic contenders have extended their leads over President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential race, with broad public concerns about the president’s leadership in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.
    While former Vice President Joe Biden now leads Trump by 17 percentage points, other Democratic contenders show the most improvement: Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ advantage vs. Trump has gone from a non-significant 6 points in July to 12 in September to 17 now. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s has gone from 7 to 11 to 15 points.
    Impeachment is not the only factor, since the trend dates to early September. Among Trump’s broader challenges, six in 10 Americans or more say he’s not honest and trustworthy, lacks the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively and doesn’t understand their problems. Slightly smaller majorities doubt his deal-making, delivery of “needed change” to Washington and leadership generally.
    Further, as reported last week, half support Trump’s impeachment and removal from office, 54% say his policies have made the United States less respected globally, 58% disapprove of his overall job performance and 66% say he’s acted unpresidentially since taking office. He’s the first president in modern polling never to have achieved majority approval, with the lowest average approval rating on record.
    Yet Trump faced difficulties in 2016 and still prevailed in the Electoral College, if not in the popular vote. He remains strong in his base in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, with 70% support among conservatives vs. Biden, 76% among evangelical white Protestants and 79% among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
    Leading Democrats currently have the upper hand. Among the party’s three frontrunners, Biden and Sanders lead Trump by an identical 56-39%, as does Warren, by 54-39%. South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg and California Sen. Kamala Harris both hold 11-point leads.
    Those results are among all adults, given that there’s plenty of time to register. Among currently registered voters, the outcomes are very similar – Biden ahead by an identical 17 points, Warren still by 15, Sanders by 14, Buttigieg still by 11 and Harris by 9. The results look different than at about this time in 2015. In an ABC/Post poll that September, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton led Trump by 12 points in a matchup among all adults, 51-39%, but it was essentially a dead heat, 46-43%, among registered voters.
    [… lots of charts…]
    This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 27-30, 2019, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,003 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.7 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 29-23-38%, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
    The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates of Rockville, Md. See details on the survey’s methodology here

  2. I’m surprised at the NYT/Sienna battle state poll(s). It is wildly out of line with the Emerson poll in MI that went through 11/3, had twice the sample size of the NYT poll in MI, had a smaller MOE and found a 10 point Biden advantage.  And the Emerson poll is not wildly Dem leaning – unlike the ABC poll showing a 17 point edge nationally for Biden, Emerson from a couple of weeks ago shows 2 points nationally for Biden over trump.  National polls a year out don’t do well predicting election results, but they do show how support is shifting.  Throw out the outlying Emerson and ABC polls and the margin of Biden over trump nationally is between  9 & 12 points.

  3. Bink, I’ chilled out.  I still follow the stuff.  I’m mildly optimistic that the dem candidate will win next November – beyond that, it’s more engaging than sitcoms.
    So I’m checking on the line for Alabama-LSU this weekend and ran across an article saying that SFB is expected to attend the game in T-town.  I don’t expect he’ll be booed much.Alabama’s pretty deep red these days.

  4. Pogo
    And it sure as fck beats watchin Sean Spicer strut his stuff on dwts. or anybody else for that matter.

  5. An interesting comment  on twitter, at what point does the national vote total make all the EC worries irrelevant? As Nate Silver pointed out even if the rust belt states love trump other states not thought of as battle ground states come into play such as Texas and Georgia. 

  6. Buddagogo ripped off Hal Rainy’s Ronny Raygun’s morning in America adI just saw pat’s earlier comment — geeze and Mr. No Impeachment it turns out he is just another middle of the road white guy

  7. Yeah… I’m not paying that much attention to the polls either.  But….   it will be interesting to see how the upcoming public impeachment hearings effect them.
    We’re supposed to be getting some snow this Friday…. guess I’ll be chillin’ then.

  8. This is an view from the air of the fire  it gives a clear idea of why they evacuated the western part of the county.
    We live north and west of Guerneville

  9. TX has inherited many Californians recently.  The state is turning purple, if not blue yet.   You have Rick Perry to thank for that.  He lured many businesses from California to TX.  

  10. Let us hope that a vote for Sean Spicer to keep dancing (or whatever you call what he does) is not actually a proxy vote for Trump…but I can find no other explanation for it.  

  11. Remember the dancer/landlord in Lebowski?  That’s the old spice man—acting out a story in dance of his time as press secretary.

  12. cleanup on aisle 3.  guess Gordon remembered what happened to Michael cohen


    Gordon Sondland, ambassador to the European Union, acknowledged telling one of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s advisers that resumption of U.S. aid was tied to an anti-corruption pledge sought by Trump.
    The acknowledgment in a deposition released Tuesday was a reversal from his earlier testimony. It puts Sondland in the middle of what national security officials saw as an attempt by the White House to leverage nearly $400 million in security assistance for investigations that could benefit President Trump politically.
    The transcript of the deposition was one of two released by House investigators Tuesday as they continue to probe Trump’s efforts to press for an investigation into former vice president Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden, who sat on the board of a Ukrainian gas company.

  13. Spicer, dancing?  I don’t know what it is he’s doing to music, but it ain’t dancing.  
    Yep, sturge, better King John than me.  If he’d visited Mexico he’d a died of Montezuma’s revenge.  Being one of his servants around that last couple nights couldn’t have been pleasant.

  14. Craig, has anybody within the Dem establishment sought input from you on how ‘we’ can boost our chances of placing one of our candidates in the oval?

  15. Chilling out is a lot better nowadays compared to fifty years ago.  So many local gin distillers to try for different martini cocktail flavors. 
      When will the greedy old perverts break from the greedy old pervert?  That is the absolute question of this time.  When that happens we go from forty-five to forty-six.  Possibly a forty-five to forty-six to forty-seven in one year.  I do dream a lot.

  16. king john. Peaches. Sure.
    More likely poisoned by someone in the pay of the archbishop cardinal, stephen langton.
    Happy Guy Fawkes Day, everyone. Burn the guy. Burn this newest guy. Burn ’em all up. Burn boris to the ground, donald, xi, kameini, bolsanaro, erdogan, duerte, orban, assad, and, most of all, vladimir with him.

  17. …can’t fault Putin for asserting Russian interests.  Do fault Americans for being dumb enough to let him.

  18. Today’s election here in Holland were for Mayor and a city council at-large seat. I could not vote today because I technically live in Park Township. Holland’s incumbent mayor Nancy DeBoer and Vicki Lynn Holmes (who ran for city council) both were kinda known to have anti-LBGTQ positions. Well, both of them lost their election bids tonight. Nathan Bocks won the mayoral race and Lyn Raymond won the city council seat.

  19. It’s getting to be a very satisfying evening. Or, as the rapist said at his KY rally, “Embarrassment.”
    Life is good. 
    And, I’ll fault putin whenever I want. So there.

  20. trump should acknowledge his loss tonight and make a concession speech.
    The greatest defeat in the history of the world – the russian agent-in-chief

  21. In KY :
    1. The Louisville and Cincinnati suburbs that had voted overwhelmingly for trump in ’16, voted for the Democrat Beshear on Tuesday. 
    2. The coal counties in eastern KY that had also voted overwhelmingly for trump, turned bright blue for Beshear. 
    All this has to have moscow midge mcconnell thinking about retirement, or taking some lobbying work. It has to have trump thinking of taking a long vacation on the warm beaches of Abkhazia or Abu Dabi. 

  22. you do you, good Sir- was speaking for myself.

    …should probably send Amy McGrath a few bucks, eh?

    (see what was done there??)😉

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