Iowa Poll: Warren Surges, Sanders Sinks

Looks like Bernie Sanders is losing support to Elizabeth Warren in Iowa:

Asked of Iowa voters who said they are likely to participate (in person or by phone): If the Democratic caucuses for president were today, would you support [NAMES WERE ROTATED]?  [If UNDECIDED: If you had to support one of these candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward?]

Joe Biden 28% 27%
Elizabeth Warren 19% 7%
Kamala Harris 11% 7%
Bernie Sanders 9% 16%
Pete Buttigieg 8% 9%
Amy Klobuchar 3% 4%
Tom Steyer 3% n/a
Kirsten Gillibrand 2% 1%
Andrew Yang 2% 1%
Cory Booker 1% 3%
Steve Bullock 1% <1%
John Delaney 1% 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1% <1%
John Hickenlooper 1% 0%
Michael Bennet <1% 0%
Julián Castro <1% 2%
Jay Inslee <1% <1%
Beto O’Rourke <1% 6%
Marianne Williamson <1% 0%
Bill de Blasio 0% <1%
Wayne Messam 0% 0%
Seth Moulton 0% 0%
Tim Ryan 0% 1%
Joe Sestak 0% n/a
(VOL) No one  <1% 1%
(VOL) Other 0% 1%
(VOL) Undecided 10% 12%

source: Monmouth University Polling Institute

Even better news for Warren she tops the list for second choice, handily beats Biden:

And who would be your second choice?


Elizabeth Warren 19% 10%
Kamala Harris 13% 12%
Joe Biden 12% 12%
Pete Buttigieg 9% 6%
Bernie Sanders 8% 8%
Cory Booker 4% 6%
Tom Steyer 3% n/a
Tulsi Gabbard 2% 2%
Amy Klobuchar 2% 3%
Andrew Yang 2% <1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1% 1%
Steve Bullock 1% 0%
Bill de Blasio 1% 0%
John Delaney 1% <1%
John Hickenlooper 1% 1%
Beto O’Rourke 1% 8%
Michael Bennet <1% 0%
Julián Castro <1% 1%
Tim Ryan <1% 1%
Marianne Williamson <1% 1%
Jay Inslee 0% <1%
Wayne Messam 0% 0%
Seth Moulton 0% 0%
Joe Sestak 0% n/a
(VOL) No one  4% 10%
(VOL) Other 0% <1%
(VOL) Undecided 17% 18%

Author: craigcrawford

Trail Mix Host

27 thoughts on “Iowa Poll: Warren Surges, Sanders Sinks”



    August 8, 2019


    No, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) didn’t get conned into paying $7 for lemonade from an Iowa child’s stand.

    Warren, like nearly every other 2020 presidential candidate, is in Iowa for its annual state fair. But before she headed to pet some livestock, as any good candidate should, she spent some time emphatically praising the word “porch” and buying some seemingly overpriced lemonade on the side of the road.

    To be clear, that wasn’t one $7 cup of lemonade, but seven $1 cups for some people traveling with Warren.


    Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) made the Iowa cul-de-sac rounds back in 2015, during his first presidential run. And as he made clear when he posed with a stand’s handmade “Lemonade for Bernie” sign, he had the lemonade vote on lock.


    Sanders hasn’t been spotted making any fresh-squeezed purchases this election cycle around. But former Vice President Joe Biden, ever committed to his brand and Twitter bio, was spotted grabbing ice cream in aviator shades at the fair. 

  2. mitch caves


    Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is not calling the Senate back to Washington for an emergency session to address recent mass shootings, but gun control measures will be on the table when Congress reconvenes in September, he said in an interview with Louisville radio station WHAS Thursday.


    McConnell specifically mentioned background checks, a measure that has failed to gain much ground in the Senate and is strongly opposed by the National Rifle Association.

    House and Senate Democrats have been calling on McConnell to reconvene the Senate after two mass shootings in El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio killed 31 people over the weekend.

    Over 200 House Democrats sent a letter to McConnell Wednesday urging him to call the Senate back to Washington in order to pass a measure implementing universal background checks. That bill, H.R. 8, was passed by the House in February.

    On Thursday afternoon, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wrote to President Trump to urge him to call the Senate into session, which the executive branch has the power to do.

    “It is with deep sadness and great urgency that I write following the horrific loss of life that occurred in Gilroy, El Paso, Dayton and Chicago, after which you said, ‘I think background checks are important. I don’t want to put guns into the hands of mentally unstable or people with rage or hate, sick people. I’m all in favor of it,'” Pelosi wrote, quoting Mr. Trump.

    “Mr. President, we have an opportunity to work in a bipartisan way to pass gun violence prevention background checks.  However, Leader Mitch McConnell, describing himself as the ‘grim reaper,’ has been an obstacle to taking any action,” Pelosi wrote.

    Mr. Trump has expressed openness to legislation that would implement universal background checks, and he has been discussing the issue with lawmakers. He also had a phone conversation Wednesday with NRA chief executive Wayne LaPierre.

    Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and GOP Rep. Peter King, both from New York, spoke in support of the bipartisan universal background check legislation Tuesday morning.

    “We’re saying to Mitch McConnell: do the right thing,” Schumer said.

    “I believe it’s essential that Senator McConnell allows it to come to a vote. He doesn’t have to support it,” King said. “It’s common sense legislation.”

    Later on Thursday, Pelosi and Schumer said the president told them he would review House-passed bill legislation that expands federal background checks.

    The Democratic-controlled House passed H.R. 8 in February in a 240-190 vote, with eight Republicans and all but two Democrats supporting it. The bill, sponsored by Rep. Mike Thompson, Democrat from California, would only allow person-to-person gun sales if a background check can be conducted. This would close loopholes for certain kinds of gun sales — such as those at gun shows, over the internet or from private dealers — that are currently completed without background checks, potentially putting guns in the hands of people who would otherwise be prohibited from owning them.



  3. more stories like these mean uptick for shopping at amazon, ebay, etsy et al



    Man With Rifle and Body Armor Alarms Shoppers at Missouri Walmart

    The man, who also had 100 rounds of ammunition, was arrested at the store in Springfield, Mo. No shots were fired.


  4. Despite polls above, only the following have qualified for September debate:










    Still trying to get in:  Castro & Gabbard.  I’m pretty sure Castro will make it.   So would we want two nights of five candidates each or one three hour program with five in the first hour and a half and the second five in the last hour and a half?


  5. Plenty of poor white kids in WV – some are smart, some, not so much.  Kinda like everywhere.  This isn’t making much of a splash.  Nor should it.  He was talking to a minority audience. and the response from the “fine people on both sides” SFB rapid response director is laughable.

  6. Yeah…  Biden’s gaffes are charming and harmless when compared to trump’s blatant gaffes.  I may not be voting for him in the primary, but I’ll take charming to assholic any day of the week.

  7. Assholic – love it.

    Alcoholic (n.) the inability to control being an utter asshole due to both a physical and emotional dependence on being an asshole.
      (this is definition that is a work in progress – please feel free to provide edits).

    Oh, and dear President SFB, if I had bankrupted casinos I wouldn’t be talking about anyone not playing with a full deck.  

  8. …now look at polls of the Super Tuesday states.  Biden running away with it in those states, and the ones that come after that.

  9. You had better volunteer for the Castro campaign, Jamie- you’re the only one talking about him.  His brother’s getting more press, now.?

  10. Grampie Joe’s latest gaffe could be spun positively by a young, hip lieutenant.   He had better get one, quickly.

    (You know, the whole “racism = classism” bit)

  11. while we’re rounding up mommies and daddies, how ’bout some employers of undocumented folk?

    wapo:  ‘If you’re a good worker, papers don’t matter’: How a Trump construction crew has relied on immigrants without legal status


    President Trump “doesn’t want undocumented people in the country,” said one worker, Jorge Castro, a 55-year-old immigrant from Ecuador without legal status who left the company in April after nine years. “But at his properties, he still has them.”

    Castro said he worked on seven Trump properties, most recently Trump’s golf club in Northern Virginia. He provided The Washington Post with several years of his pay stubs from Trump’s construction company, Mobile Payroll Construction LLC, as well as photos of him and his colleagues on Trump courses and text messages he exchanged with his boss, including one in January dispatching him to “Bedminster,” Trump’s New Jersey golf course. 


     Another immigrant who worked for the Trump construction crew, Edmundo Morocho, said he was told by a Trump supervisor to buy fake identity documents on a New York street corner. He said he once hid in the woods of a Trump golf course to avoid being seen by visiting labor union officials.

    The hiring practices of the little-known Trump business unit are the latest example of the chasm between the president’s derisive rhetoric about immigrants and his company’s long-standing reliance on workers who cross the border illegally. 

    And it raises questions about how fully the Trump Organization has followed through on its pledge to more carefully scrutinize the legal status of its workers — even as the Trump administration launched a massive raid of undocumented immigrants, arresting about 680 people in Mississippi this week.


    Since January, The Post has interviewed 43 immigrants without legal status who were employed at Trump properties. They include waiters, maids and greenskeepers, as well as a caretaker at a personal hunting lodge that his two adult sons own in Upstate New York. 

  12. Round up all the illegal employers; display their heads on pikes along the border.
    That’ll solve the problem.
    It’ll probably also erode support for the death penalty.
    Kill two birds with one skull.

  13. XR – The last raid was against a kock bros chicken killing plant.  Looks like it was in retaliation for the immigrants winning a legal case over discrimination. SFB will never attack a kock bro.

  14. Very nice.  Chase bank’s cancelling ALL credit card debt for Canadians!  The land with socialized medicine benefits, again.
    How about US citizens’ debt, eh?

  15. x-rep…LOLOL…”Round up all the illegal employers; display their heads on pikes along the border.
    That’ll solve the problem.It’ll probably also erode support for the death penalty.Kill two birds with one skull.”

  16. Bink

    I like Castro but not for President.  Still want him in the race to be a representative for the Hispanic vote.  Beto pretty well stole his impact over the El Paso shootings.  I think Castro would make an excellent cabinet appointment, but in the meantime will be good for campaigning in 2020.



  17. Koch Foods is not part of Koch Industries. It’s owned by Joseph Grendys, who is worth $3.3 billion. 
    So so it’s Christmas in Canada?

  18. now look at polls of the Super Tuesday states”

    Yep Bink. More than 1,300 of the 1.800+ delegates needed to win chosen on a single day, just 4 weeks after the Iowa caucuses.

  19. Thanks, Pogo !
    joseph grendys
    8547 W Carmen Ave
    Chicago, IL
    Past Addresses
    798 Wildrose Ln
    Chattanooga, TN

    Current Phone Number

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