The Down Ballot Matrix

Now that the presidency looks like a done deal for the Democrats, what’s the effect on Senate and House races in the face of Trump’s demise?

Top 3 Reasons Democrats Benefit

  1. Moderate Republicans so disgusted by their party they just stay home.
  2. Trump groupies just vote for him, skip ballot entries for GOP candidates who reject him.
  3. Democrats so fired up by Hillary’s inevitability they flock to the polls.

Top 3 Reasons Republicans Benefit

  1. Predictions of Hillary’s inevitability drive Republicans to the polls.
  2. Moderate Republicans skip presidential ballot, vote for their congressional candidates.
  3. Marginal Democrats think they’re not needed, due to predictions of Hillary’s inevitability.

Anybody got 7 more for a complete Top Ten?


Author: craigcrawford

Trail Mix Host

83 thoughts on “The Down Ballot Matrix”

  1. Dems benefit:

    4. Dem effort to tie trump to congressional candidates who’ve supported trump through ad buys  works and “safe” Rep seats turn blue through combo of 1, 2 & 3, above.

  2. Good morning Craig.

    Democrats Benefit

    4. Christian Conservative women begin to kick their male leadership’s  butt about staying silent. Which, by the way has begun. They convince conservative Christians to stay away from voting in November

    5.  Candidate Trump spends the next few weeks shoring up his new political party, effectively ripping the Republicans assunder. Driving the undecided voters and lazy Dems to the polls and voting straight BLUE.


    Republican Benefut.

    4.  frightened by the notion of a lwft leaning supreme court, Conservatives lockstep to the poles, hpld their noses amd vote for Trump.

    5. A dranged Trump Supporter or the Russians perhaps? takes out The Democratic Nominee (God Forbid)

  3. I see Rick Scott has been overridden by a judge, called Scott’s stance irrational.  FL registration extended through tomorrow.

  4. Trump’s October surprise is that no one is going to change their vote based on those 4 women

    He is going to spend the next 4 weeks destroying the Republican party

    The Tell Tale Sniffler

  5. 3rd party benefits

    1. those “Marginal Democrats think they’re not needed, due to predictions of Hillary’s inevitability” feel free to flock to polls  and vote any 3rd party candidates they see up or down ballot .


    al gore campaigning today in florida to remind folks not to get complacent, not to throw away vote or indulge in protest vote and not to depend on polling that shows inevitability…  pollings have been known to get it wrong.

    from politico:  Hillary and Al’s change of climate

    Two former rivals come together to defeat global warming and Donald Trump.

    Gore no longer has the political stature — and he never had the natural skills on the stump — to be a closer in the same way that President Obama or the popular First Lady are performing for Clinton. But his participation in politics is rare and it becomes more valuable because of it — in addition to the symbolism he carries. Gore’s appearance alone in South Florida, the site of the 2000 recount, will be a powerful reminder to voters in the critical battleground state that every vote matters.

    It was not clear if Gore plans to make an explicit mention of Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate from 2000 who many blame for costing him the election. But his presence alone will be a reminder to voters who may consider peeling off to vote for candidates like this year’s Green Party nominee Jill Stein or Libertarian Gary Johnson, both of whom are siphoning votes from Clinton, according to polls.

  6. ‘A deranged Trump Supporter or the Russians perhaps?”

    flatus, and yes let’s implore the forbidding by god, allah, gaia, the force, Gautama Buddha et al of letting that happen.

    btw, morning joe panel this morning agreed that it’s all over… except for one guy who muttered unless she “gets hit by a bus”

  7. the chron: Why do evangelicals prefer Donald Trump to Hillary Clinton?

    Tiny cracks have appeared in evangelical support for Donald Trump over the video of his sexually predatory comments about women.

    Among those reversing course was well-known theologian Wayne Grudem, whose endorsement was widely cited by other Christians backing the Republican presidential nominee. Popular evangelist and author Beth Moore tweeted that she was among many women who had been sexually abused or harassed, and “we’re tired of it.” That behavior, she warned, becomes more acceptable “when some Christian leaders don’t think it’s that big a deal.”


    Evangelical support for Trump has been one of the more baffling trends this election year. Trump is a casino mogul who was married three times, said he didn’t need to ask God for forgiveness, mocked a disabled reporter and alluded to his penis size during a debate. Early on, prominent evangelicals, including Russell Moore of the Southern Baptist Convention, and Christian author Max Lucado, warned evangelicals against Trump.

    Still, as the year progressed and the large pool of GOP primary contenders dwindled, it became clear that white conservative Christians were coalescing behind the candidate. Recent polls show the GOP presidential nominee drawing about 70 percent of the white evangelical vote.

  8. Off the subject, but what a great weekend of postings. Besides the p-gate, another debate that shows Hillary has more class than Trump has in his stubby thumb. I truly believe Hillary is going to make a great President. I enjoyed all the comments from all of you these past couple of days. Glad everyone is safe from the hurricane.

    However, the best post for me on this Blog was the posting of Toby standing on his hind legs. Thanks for posting that picture Craig, it makes me smile. Your dad and you picked a good companion who I am sure is bringing much joy in your lives.

  9. “I don’t think that’s what Trump’s advisors meant when they told him to reach out to women.” – Stephen Colbert


    Glenn Beck sure upset some folks last night.

  10. IMO, the biggest threat to the Democratic down ticket candidates is voter complacency.  But I also wouldn’t be surprised if women went to the polls in record numbers due to that glass ceiling FINALLY being broken by Clinton.

    Go, Hillary, go!

  11. We frequently go off topic here.  And talking about sports is allowed.  Some of you newbies haven’t seen much talk of it lately because of the presidential election.

    With that said….   Congrats to the Indians!  I still love Terry Francona too…   I wish the team much luck with the red hot Blue Jays.

    Though disappointed…  I want to thank the Red Sox for a fun season of watching baseball.  And I want to give a BIG thank you to Big Papi, David Ortiz.  Your last season was magical…  you will be sorely missed by Red Sox fans everywhere.

  12. more early voting solidifying the dem ticket as a winning strategy for the house and Senate.  Getting the vote out is a key theme of dems, absent at trump rallies.

  13. I read this opine in Wapo.  I have thought about whether or not we need the third debate for the past few days.   I would guess that many will have voted and ignore the debate. Pennsylvania and Michigan will be the only swing states that wait until election day to vote…more suppression, but do they need a third debate?   The debate commission had to stop a publicity stunt in their midst on Sunday night.  I also read that Clinton wanted Claire McCaskill in the now dubbed ‘family box seats.’    I have read that almost 1/2 million citizens have already voted.  I will do so this week.  Citizens complain about the rules of debates, primaries, etc. and we still have to wait on PA and MI.  I doubt many decent humans want to experience another night with trump.

    I read Mr.’ red sweater’ Bone needs a third debate.  He can keep his celebrity until then.

  14. Democrats solid ground game gives advantage to the democrats. With the Republicans in freefall and Trump supporters low turn out voters The house looks in play

    The  National party needs to have ads in every district that has significant democratic presence even if it looks solid red. Put the candidate side by side with Trump, Make them squirm. It is hard ball time

    If they don’t do that then they deserve to lose.



  15. Just saw a picture of the floater scowling behind HRC.  Me thinks it is time for her to put on a pair of spike heels and wait for him to do it again.  A quick step back and a sharp down with an “excuse me, were you stalking me again?”  as he hops around with a shoe sticking out of his foot.

  16. In regard to a future debate, It is time for HRC to say enough of this disgusting behavior by Donald Trump and decline to participate in another garbage fest.

    Word  the statement better than I did slant it so that it is all about DT’s behavior.

    then go positive the rest of the month.



  17. The Country Loses: Hillary is elected by a comfortable margin, but the House remains deeply divided, with Republicans nominally in control, but with such deep divisions within their own ranks that literally no legislation can be passed. Republicans in the House and Senate (where there is a 50-50 split) can only agree on one thing: block any attempt by Hillary to govern by failing to pass needed legislation, scheduling endless hearings and failing to confirm any nominee. The only redemption could come if Hillary is able to overcome her most venal instincts and takes her case to the people, who in two years would have a chance to throw the obstructionists out.  In the meantime, difficult problems: Social Security and Medicare funding, fixing Obamacare, fixing the broken tax code, addressing inequality and racism grow only worse.

    We are in danger of democratically bringing into existence the dystopian future of science fiction.

  18. Jamie: Good timing, I’ve been watching the British series Victoria and just watched the final ep. of season 1 yesterday. It got me thinking about royal succession and I started thinking how distasteful it would be for Charles to be King.

    Jack: I agree, Dick with a capital D!

    William and Kate are hugely popular and he seems to be a decent, caring man. Probably Diana’s early influence.

  19. I thought Trump’s creepy behavior was at the point where Hillary’s agents were on the verge of stepping in.

  20. I like Charles especially his positions on  organic food and farming practices as well as his work in historic preservation


    Going back to something Bink said

    I think that Clinton should focus her first years on criminal justice reform including getting drugs out of the criminal system

    More beds for rehab in the affected areas



  21. Joe

    I don’t see the same world you see.

    Out here it is much more positive. People are getting shit done.

    Even if the Republicans retain control of the House they won’t be a solid block as they were with Obama.

    And unlike Obama, HRC doesn’t believe in their better nature. She can drive hard bargains as there will be swing state Republicans  who need to show the can govern. That btw includes the Speaker of the House. And yes she will triangulate pealing off votes where she can get them. She is very much middle of the road so there are compromises she can easily reach.



  22. BTW, I’ve really been enjoying the reporting on the wiki leaks emails. It give us political junkies a rare insight into how a campaign is really run. In the past these would have been  face to face meetings and all we would have had were memories and war stories.



  23. The dems should work out a universal ad encourgaing all women to vote for Hillary (against trump ) and to drag all of their men behind them….this is a great chance to recruite many, many people… is the time to build a bigger tent…..and I could not agree more with Cajun JOe……she will need to go around congress and talk directly to the voters……she is not going to get away with any excuses like Obama did…..


    Pat, that was one of my mom favorites also…..I loved playing anything with Maria on it for her…….later, it is so nice that im going to go camping for a cpl/three days…..sides….ive talked so much already  to make up for the rest of the year……..hugs



  24. Dems will pick up Senate seats in WI, MI, IN, PA, NC, & NH. Dems may lose a seat in NV, but I kinda doubt it. Either way, Dems will take the Senate and offer certain repubs who act in a bi-partisan fashion opportunities to present their pet bills.

    The Senate could also investigate trey gowdy, darryl issa, and lyin’ ryan over their waste of taxpayer money to hold partisan ‘fishing expedition’ investigations. Heh, heh.

    Just a threat of such investigations could keep the House committees in order.

  25. The RNC is not going to turn people out for Trump and on their own they only have twitter followers -or as Trump says 400 pound people living in their parent’s basement and they will not be able to turn out people like Clinton’s campaign

    The RNC is going to work with state organization to maintain their margins.  And it could work for their down ballot races.  Even though in general people don’t like Congress they do like their own member.


  26. WhskyJack,

    I hope you are right. We do have a great country with many resources and assets, but our political system seems to be failing us. I am one of those who believes we still don’t know who Hillary really is. She may turn out to be a great leader and President.  One can hope.



  27. Are we absolutely sure that Donald Trump isn’t an employee of Hillary’s campaign?

    Jamie…  it’s a delicious thought…  but, IMO, that would be a tad bit too Machiavellian.  One would have to think that Hillary could know that Trump could beat out 16 other GOP candidates.  Nah…   as they say…  never see conspiracy when stupidity would suffice.  And in this case…  it’s the stupidity of Republican voters.

  28. So Newsweek has uncovered Julian Assange leaking fraudulent emails — and then somehow Trump has the discredited info although it was deleted and the only way he could have it was if Assange gave it to the campaign

    I have seen the new Trump ads – health and dead husband in Benghazi the first one is stupid — the second one could have been effective but Trump’s own noise is blocking out the message

  29. The landslide rejection of trump & trumpism is going to hurt the trump brand badly. Who will want to pay $3 M!LL!ON/year for the privilege of using the name of a loser ? Dozens of tower owners across East Asia, from Singapore to Seoul, will decide to change their names from trump to Celestial Harmony Tower or Tower of the Risen Sun.

    trump should be put on suicide watch.

  30. Renee: Yes, complacency! Many people will think they know the outcome and not bother voting. Also lazy people who didn’t do their homework might just vote for one of the third party candidates because it’s easy.

    PS: Good to know that baseball talk is OK on occasion. I watched YouTube videos of Big Papi’s final farewell to the fans and teared up. They waited 30 minutes after the game had ended to see him one last time. Good luck Terry and Cleveland!

    Jamie: I don’t think Hillary would ever hire such a misogynist, racist tool. That was already his character before he ran for President.

    I’m sure many have seen this, but for those who haven’st, it’s a viral tweet done in response to Trump saying that Muslims should “report suspicious behavior” when they see it!

    Moustafa Bayoumi @BayoumiMoustafa

    “I’m a Muslim, and I would like to report a crazy man threatening a woman on a stage in Missouri.”

    You can find more humorous tweets because of Trump’s asinine statement here:

  31. Hubby and I join xrep and Sweetie…we have voted as today was the first day of early voting in New Mexico.   Hubby insisted on doing it today, so if he died in the night?  His vote would have been cast.    My ballot was the #160 to be cast.   There was a wait, but it was only ten minutes and everyone seemed excited.  Poll workers had their name and party designation on their badges.  It was fun to judge who we thought might be a trump, johnson or Clinton supporter.  A very robust democracy here…no banana trees.

  32. Trump alleged he only went after Bill Clinton because the Clinton campaign released the “bus tape” but now it appears that it was Dan Senor an aide to Ryan.  Will Trump be apologizing to the Clintons?  When more come out – will he be attacking Campbell Brown?

  33. My misrepresentative, bland-faced john cline, who most famously carried reagan’s atomic football, hasn’t done much since except work to lower Vets benefits. He is retiring. I expect Democrat Angie Craig to replace him. Angie’s opponent is crazy radio ‘host,’ jason lewis, a man who thinks like hannity and boasts like oreilly. The rippers are in an uncivil war in this district. It’s a good thing.

  34. renee & granny, me too on the complacency fear.  there will be no holding back of the evangelicals and the more militant anti-choice folk.  they will turn out in droves based on scotus appointment power to overturn roe v. wade.  a nine hundred pound orangutan could be heading the ticket and they’d still vote for him if he promises them a judge like scalia.  oh wait, one is and has…  so yes am worried very much about complacency or not voting on the dem side or voting 3rd party in face of droves of the true believers coming out of the wood work on election day.  remember, they think know that god is on their side.

  35. Granny, when baseball is good, it is very good–win or lose. In that sense, it is a welcome respite from the hate generated within politics. Pogo mentioned Alabama and football. Daughter Sue and I represent The Ohio State Buckeyes. I bet we have a dandy match-up early next year. 🙂 Any mention of the Cleveland Browns fills my heart with grief.

  36. I think Darrell Issa could be a Trump victim.  His district is rich republicans –country clubbers – they have no reason to voteThey aren’t going to vote for Clinton – this is California Trump has no chance.   They aren’t going to care about the senate race  it’s between two Democrats.   So unless there is something local – why vote?  I just don’t see loyalty to Issa.  If the Dems can turn out every voter he might just win,Boy that would be great

  37. “they’re literally face down in the Kool-Aid”… deplorable, ain’t it, mac?

    npr: GOP Strategist Expects October To Be Full Of Presidential Campaign Surprises

    MONTAGNE: And for more on that we reached Mac Stipanovich. He’s one of Florida’s most powerful Republican operatives. When we spoke with him during the primaries last May, he had been supporting Jeb Bush and then Marco Rubio and was deeply critical of Trump. This time, I asked Stipanovich exactly what was Paul Ryan’s message to his colleagues, many of whom are running for office.

    MAC STIPANOVICH: Speaker Ryan told them it was every man for himself. And he was not going to defend Donald Trump. He didn’t say he was unendorsing (ph) him, didn’t say he wouldn’t vote for him. But he told the Republicans in the United States House of Representatives that he will not be defending Donald Trump and they need not do so either and that literally that it’s every man for himself.

    MONTAGNE: At this late stage, do you think there’s any chance that Ryan or McConnell would back off their endorsements?

    STIPANOVICH: Well, it is a late stage, but it is still almost a month till Election Day. I cannot believe that the Clinton campaign opposition research bag is empty. I would expect another shoe to drop later this week or certainly next week. And at some point, even those who are most reluctant to abandon the sinking ship may have to get in the water.

    MONTAGNE: What about the vice president, Mike Pence? It would be unheard of for him to drop out. He has said, 100 percent, he’s sticking with it. He won’t. On the other hand, there’s talk of that.

    STIPANOVICH: Yeah, he’s not going to drop out. I mean, the poor man is in just a terrible position. He’s basically destroying any shred of reputation that he had. I mean, he criticized Martha Raddatz for misstating his position on Syria when she, in fact, read his statement on Syria. Those are the kind of difficulties you find yourself in when you align yourself with Donald Trump.

    MONTAGNE: You know, you suggested that it – there’s a month to go. In fact, though, another way to look at this is that there’s only four weeks to go before this election and…

    STIPANOVICH: That’s correct. That’s correct.

    MONTAGNE: And we do know that Donald Trump has really fortified his supporters. And I would say they’re even hardening as top Republicans flee from endorsing him.

    STIPANOVICH: Yes, they’ve absolutely lost touch with reality. I mean, they’re literally face down in the Kool-Aid. I don’t think anything that could possibly happen would change that 35 to 40 percent of the electorate’s mind. They’re just locked in and will not give up.


    MONTAGNE: But you’re still talking here – when you’re talking Trump supporters – a sizable number of voters. Can the Republican Party afford to lose them?

    STIPANOVICH: Well, I’ll tell you what – I don’t know that we’ll lose them. Hopefully there’ll be some re-education. But if we have to lose them, then lose them we must. What Trump stands for is wrong. It’s bad for America. It’s bad for the party. And if we have to wander in the wilderness for a decade until we can get a party that stands for the right things and can make a contribution to the future of America, then we need to wander.

    MONTAGNE: Let me just say this again – you are a longtime lobbyist for the Republican Party. But you said months ago on this program that you would rather vote for Hillary Clinton even though you disagreed with her policies. It was probably a little more hypothetical then. Do you plan to cast a vote for her in Florida on November 8?

    STIPANOVICH: You know, my first inclination is to be dishonest about that and say, you know, as a lifelong Republican who’s never voted for a Democrat, I’m just not going to vote in this race or I’m going to write-in Jeb Bush. But that would be dishonest. I am going to vote for Hillary Clinton. I loathe Donald Trump with the passion that I usually reserve for snakes. And so, yeah, I’m going to vote for Hillary Clinton.

  38. It was 48-deg yesterday morn and 45-deg today. My electric radiator has wheels making it portable, but I haven’t yet figured out how to fashion a saddle whereon I can ride it around the house. I know that I can use the extra-long extension cord that I have for the vacuum for power, but…

  39. kgc, here’s some of what glen beck said according to cnn:

    “It is not acceptable to ask a moral, dignified man to cast his vote to help elect an immoral man who is absent decency or dignity,” Beck wrote on Facebook in reference to Trump. “If the consequence of standing against Trump and for principles is indeed the election of Hillary Clinton, so be it. At least it is a moral, ethical choice.”

    “If she is elected, the world does not end,” Beck said of Clinton. “Once elected, Hillary can be fought. Her tactics are blatant and juvenile, and battling her by means of political and procedural maneuvering or through the media, through public marches and online articles, all of that will be moral, worthy of man of principal.”
    He added: “Trump stepping down does not guarantee a Clinton win, but it does guarantee that the Republican party still stands for something, still allows its members to maintain (their) own self-respect and that it still has a future.”

  40. tpm:  Trump Campaign: We Paid For Bill Clinton’s Accusers To Be At The Debate
    The Trump campaign said it paid for three women who accused Bill Clinton of sexual misconduct to come to the debate.
    Politico reported Sunday that Trump spokesperson Hope Hicks said that the Trump campaign had picked up the tab for their travel.
    “They were our invited guests,” Hicks told Politico.
    But Politico also reported that Broaddrick had told reporters that the right wing news outlet Breitbart had actually paid for her travel.

  41. Pat, I want to see a copy of the check, because if it don’t exist then someone broke the law.



  42. jack, will this be reported as campaign expense?  also want to know if any other money was shelled out…. a gift here or there.

  43. Arkansas online:

    The Trump campaign, which paid for the women to travel to St. Louis, kept the news conference tightly under wraps, going so far as to tell the reporters they took into the room, where Jones, Broaddrick and the others were waiting, that they were about to witness Trump’s debate preparations.

  44. Roger Stone paid for the 4th woman someone posted the link yesterdayThe Brietbartonians are like college freshman “frat” guys and they have no idea the things they think are important have no meaning to most of America

  45. how will this exchange tho’ be recorded and submitted to f.e.c…… or will it?  and how will the ladies report it to the irs?

  46. Gov Haley gave excellent and entertaining updates during Matthew. The entertainment came from the most animated deaf interpreter that I have ever seen. You can steal South Carolina’s football team, but don’t take our volunteer interpreter.

  47. There is the small matter of whether or not the appearance of the women was a coordinated arrangement between the campaign and a PAC.  Could definitely be a violation of roles.


  48. Flatus…  I want you to know that I thought of you when I refrained from saying anything about a certain football game played this past Sunday…  🙂

    The Donald now turning on the GOP is a wet dream from heaven…

  49. Speaking of eating too much.

    Donald Trumps Doctor’s statement was an obvious false statement. I’m 6’3 and weigh 260 lbs and I don’t carry near the weight Trump is carrying. looking at him pace around the other night, that man has a fat ass, just a sayin’

    if he is 6’3 then he is carrying close to 300lb.



  50. Renee

    My Browns were trucked off in the middle of the night by Art Modell never to be seen again. But I’m neither bitter nor angry–I hardly remember it. Instead, I think of Paul Brown’s teams with people such as Otto Graham, Dante Lavelli, Marion Motley (Mighty Mo) and the full to overflowing stadium for every home game played on the frigid shore of Lake Erie. Especially the rivalry with Pittsburgh. These players as often as not had a job during the off season to make ends meet; football was a game of love.

    And, I thought of you and your Red Sox and knew how disappointed you would be as things unfolded. As your hometown hero retired with a season terminated earlier than you and he expected; and, with CoCo becoming a hero for us. Baseball, whatta game

  51. Flatus…Renee. …

    I mourn the Browns anad cheer the Pats, cheer the Indians and mourn the Sox (red). Cant find the damn right horse to ride.  Oh, wait.  ROLL TIDE!

  52. Gary Bauer’s on With All Due Respect spreading the same delusion that he spread when he ran for president. He’s pushing the meme that the disillusioned Democrats are ripe for the picking for the Republican Party. Where the hell has he been? Hypocrisy on display.”Radical social policy…”

  53. jack…during the debate, I was amazed how gigantic Don is.  You will notice that when in public you almost never see him from the side and he is surrounded by people.  Earlier in the campaign, he appeared to be losing weight.  I think now he is tweeting all night with silver platters of Big Macs and fries.  I imagine he also orders a tub of tartar sauce to dip the burgers and fries…

  54. Big Fat Don   – He’s a KFC fan and claims he gets enough exercise waving his arms

  55. I normally don’t comment on the weight of people, but Don is a revolting character who demeans just about everyone who does not worship Master Trump…

    Don Trump is the most insecure person to ever run for the White House…and I remember Nixon…

  56. This is becoming a pretty grave crisis.

    hillary and her team must come up now with a real barn burner of a speech for the last debate….it’s going to be a finely tuned laceratiion of her opponent.

    but you know it’s going to be a real stem-winder.   The kid’s a trouper…….

    this is the sixties coming to a boil.

  57. After the election, Trump et al will become a fund raising machine milking the gullible to ruin the Clinton Presidency.  Gary Bauer unfolding his bat wings to emerge briefly in the light is just a replay of all the Evangelical/right wing nut case noise machine … money and power and God be damned.

    All of this massive machine will be built of hatred … pick your favorite phobia.

  58. trump supporter, sheriff joe’s federal contempt case.  To date, joe has cost the state of Arizona over $48 million in legal fees.  At 84, joe may enjoy retirement in a federal facility.  Early voting starts tomorrow in Arizona and joe blames the timing of the contempt charge on Obama.


  59. To all who are mourning the Red Sox and the loss of Big Papi: In a little over 4 months the boys will start arriving in Florida and we can begin anew! In the meantime Go Pats!

    Night all!

  60. I could say, Go Vikes, but they don’t seem to need my feeble help. GO, MINNESOTA’S BELOVED WASHINGTON SENATWINS ! GO LYNX ! ! !

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