New Hampshire Now

By Cathleen Decker, Los Angeles Times:

Among Republicans, the race shifts onto ground dominated by more secular New Englanders after weeks of appeals to Iowa’s evangelical voters. A New Hampshire race that days ago appeared destined to define which of a quartet of establishment Republicans would rise to challenge Donald Trump will offer instead a battle between two young senators, Iowa winner Ted Cruz and third-place finisher Marco Rubio, for that mantle.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton only barely escaped a second straight embarrassment at the hands of an upstart movement candidate by effectively tying with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Now she must fight him on his home turf of New England.

That is dangerous territory for Clinton politically, raising the specter that she will emerge from the first two contests with no clear victory. But Clinton will also reinhabit the underdog role that she used to great effect in her come-from-behind primary win here over Barack Obama in 2008.

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Author: craigcrawford

Trail Mix Host. Lapsed journalist, author & retired pundit happily promoting nothing but the truth for Social Security checks.

85 thoughts on “New Hampshire Now”

  4. At the time, I thought Hillary was going to run into a pinch on crew-time for her airplane; if she didn’t get out of there before long, they’d have to spend the night until their crew was fully rested. Excellent tactic, her checking out, making her speech, and climbing on her plane.

    Question, I know Bernie isn’t signing ASL. Does anyone know what it is?

  7. this from the examiner is why I asked about a possible hispanic veep for hillary

    Whether it turns out that Clinton or Sanders turn out to be the Democratic nominee at this point doesn’t seem to matter. The way things are going just nine months before the general election, it looks like Marco Rubio is obviously the Democrats’ biggest threat. And, in time, Republicans – who definitely do not want President Obama’s agenda continued via Clinton or Sanders’ socialism to be the law of the land – will realize they have one candidate who can definitely beat the Democrats. That’s Marco Rubio. Furthermore, if the choice is between Rubio and Clinton, Rubio has a huge youthful following which may turn many young Democrats into Republicans for a day – Election Day, that is.

  8. was hoping that this election wouldn’t have the same media slant and mysogyntic aspects would be lessened.  i am afraid that i was being naive.

     

  9. BlueB…  Bill and Hillary are appearing together this morning at an event in Nashua, NH.

    OD…  please don’t act like the Obama people did here in 08.  I remember quite a few of them acting like we insulted them by stating things like…  “I like Obama, but I don’t think he’s ready yet”.  And considering how he squandered the first 2 yrs with a Democratic super majority…  we were proven correct.  Craig and others have a right to ask tough questions of any presidential candidate…  including Hillary.

    Craig…  you’ve made a good point concerning Clinton’s staff  talking about a “74 yr old Socialist”.  The Republicans are already licking their chops and praying the Dem candidate is Sanders because of that very thing.   Methinks Clinton would be better served by asking Sanders to tell us specifically what he means by “political revolution”.   People rising up doesn’t cut it, IMO.  Does he mean he wants people to go out in the streets and protest?  Good luck with that (although I’d love to see it happen).  At the very least he should be advocating for his supporters to get off their butts and go vote in the mid-term elections.

  10. I agree that Iowa and caucuses in general are a joke.  But I’m not so sure about Jamie’s suggestion of 6 regional super Tuesdays.  That would mean that candidates would only do events in major cities and basically be running their campaigns via television ads.  Only the already recognized names and those with big war chests before the contests began would be able to afford to run.  That would mean that governors would be at a distinct disadvantage as most are only recognized in their respective state.  If that had been the case in 92, Bill Clinton would never have been president.

    It would mean that one would have to get as much money as fast as possible.  If you hate big donors now…  it would be worse, IMO, if we went to that system.

    I know that NH isn’t really representative of the country either because it is largely white.  If there is another small state with a more diverse population I’d be ok if it had the first primary.  Doing a small state first and having to “press the flesh” at least gives nationally unknowns a chance.

  11. I’m not opposed to the caucus system in the sense that party activists should choose who should represent their party in an election. After all, they are the most committed, the most knowledgeable of the personalities, the ones who will be there to pick-up the pieces, etc. They should best be able to separate wheat from the chaff.

  12. renee, I completely agree with your “If there is another small state with a more diverse population I’d be ok if it had the first primary.  Doing a small state first and having to “press the flesh” at least gives nationally unknowns a chance.”

    even a fairly large state  like florida which as far as diversity (except for the weather) is almost a united states in miniature – from extreme fringes or liberal-conservative or urbam/suburban/rural- could force the face to face experience that’s needed.   it’s good for the candidates to have to hoist a few beers and babies and talk with the bumpkins.  being one of those bumpkins, I think it’s absolutely necessary to see the potential potus contend with the real world.  the flyover folks miss out by not knowing the flown-over folks.

  13. Flatus

    Just really hated my so far one and only Caucus experience in 2008.  It really did feel as being overwhelmed by bus loads of activists for Obama while knowing that no one who was housebound, working, overseas etc had no voice in the selection of candidate.  WA Democratic party has since changed this in that some delegates come from the caucus and others from a primary style election.  I will be doing both and let you know if the caucus was any more bearable.

    RebRen

    The one thing I like about Iowa and NH is that it forces the candidates to really do the leg work and get out to meet people face to face.  I just would prefer something that happened in less homogenized states.  Maybe a combination of two or three states: mostly white, mostly minority, mostly mixed all of whom then voted on the same day.

     

  14. I think Iowa may be the outlier. The Republicans always support an unelectable evangelical candidate and the Democrats are limited to white  urban hipsters and college intellectuals, where 45% of them are comfortable with being called socialist. They don’t even represent Iowa let alone the rest of the nation.

    I do think there is an advantage to using some small states to winnow the group and give a candidate a place where he can do shoe leather politics and reach voters with out the big budget it requires to do the media buys required in larger states.

    Jack

  15. Jamie, I can understand how that experience would be absolutely demoralizing. We have to count on family and friends to be our surrogates when we become voiceless in a caucus-style environment. Do let me know how it goes this year. Understand that my support of caucuses was based on life ‘in the best of all possible worlds’.

  16. In the past we’ve touched upon the how being designated executor of an estate adds responsibilities to our lives and complications as well. There is an excellent article in yesterday’s WSJ on avoiding pitfalls in managing an estate. It is written by Veronica Dagher. The information in the article is not perishable; it’s worth saving if it may be useful years from now.

  17. I’m not so sure that NH is a bad first primary, although the lack of racial diversity is a stumbling block.  NH has RW, LW, rural, urban, intellectual pockets and about 2/3 of the state is shit kickers.  It’s suffered decline in manufacturing big time and growth in tech sector in the southern part of the state.  I’m guessing the 9 % racial diversity (including white, hispanic) in the state is concentrated in the 111 & 128 areas from Nashua and south to the Mass. line and in the college towns, but it is pretty scant overall.  SC is closer, but its racially diverse population, while similar overall to the US, is twice as numerous among blacks and scant among hispanics.  FL isn’t small, but it does a reasonably close job of reflecting the demo makeup of the US.  Don’t know if there’s really a small state microcosm of the US out there, but SOMEONE here probably has an opinion about that.

     

  18. Iowa — she did better with young people then in 08 and she kept Bernie from an outright win

    Iowans are famous for electing women NOT — I hope she cuts his lead in New Hampshire and then the Bernie people will be asked the same questions..oh right.

     

    “74 year old socialist”.”..at least they aren’t saying Jewish socialist with a bastard son”  sometime her campaign can be tone deaf

  20. cnn at last announcing that she won according to iowa dems.  and sanders won’t be “dwelling ” on this any further.  700.59 to 656.82

     

  21. I don’t like primaries. Primaries are usually tv advert extravaganzas that rely heavily on highly emotional non-issues such as flag burning, prayer in the schools, abortion, or a vote the front-runner cast a decade earlier. The candidates all show up on tv smiling in their blue shirts with sleeves rolled up, to signify that they are upbeat and hard-working, even the guy in the House and Senate, who haven’t done anything but raise campaign money for the last dozen years.

    Iowa caucuses are almost always the expressions of the people who care most about politics, and who are the most knowledgeable. The fact that Iowegians are among the best educated people in the US does make them somewhat strange, but I think it is strange in a good way. Otherwise, the state is the US writ small : the east and west coasts of Iowa are industrial with strong unions, the interior is agricultural, and in the center is a city whose economy is built on publishing and insurance. The republicans get most of their votes from folks in the corn/hog industry, while the Dems get most of theirs from the blue collar and white collar workers of the coasts and DesMoines. The primary gives actual people a chance to see the living candidates, and maybe even ask a question. It gives people a chance to meet and question people who actually know the candidate. So, when Iowegians finally go to the caucuses, they are better informed than are the good folks in Florida when they vote in the primary a month later.

    Of course caucuses can have drawbacks, but in Iowa their is something beyond the mindless braying of tv ads and mountebank pundits.

  22. My apologies for my excessive bandwidth. I guess it proves me to be a braying mountebank pundit.

    Also, I second Flatus’ posts on caucuses, especially the one at 11:41am.

  23. I think the Iowa caucuses are fine and Sanders did what Obama did — they went to places where they had access to lots of voters they could bus in…

     

    Apparently the Clinton people did not heed my advice to work with the red and purple ladies  a very busable group

  24. I don’t particularly like young people — and I don’t think it’s bad that Clinton doesn’t “connect” with them

    And they supported Obama because connected on their issues — and then did nothing about them and in fact apologized for not doing more about governance and money in politics issues.    Will they stay home in November who knows but I’m sort of sick of kowtowing to ignorant college students who think the world started when they were born

  25. XR, you’re right about Iowegians’ educational level – if your’re talking about HS grads.  If you’re talking college (34th) or grad school, etc. (43rd).  I’m not conceding that having 4% +/- more of the populace with HS diplomas than Ohio (25th) makes Iowegians (I love this term) one of the best educated states.

  26. It certainly doesn’t help Mr. Sanders cause when some of his followers treat anyone favoring Hillary as a lower life form.  So far I’ve been called the B word C word and accused of voting with my vagina and that is only in the last hour.

     

  28. Just took a look at the general election matchups – with respect to Hillary v. the top 3 clowns, Fox miraculously has outliar results (appropriate name dontchathink?) in favor of the clowns.  Go figure.  Throw those outliars out and Hillary would beat each of them.  With them in, the Cuban and Canadian win.  Against Bernie the Cuban wins, Canadian and head clown lose.

  29. I watched a show about Henry VIII & Anne Boleyn last night on my local PBS station. You wanna talk politics… that story had everything. Then, click. No radio also. Went to sleep; slept quite well, thank you. No need to deliberately punish myself with blahblahblahblah Cable TV talk. I wish we could go back to a time when people wrote their thoughts. Not talked, not presented, wrote.

    Speaking of ol’timey stuff, the latest American Experience episode is about James Garfield. I hope it’s good. James & Lucretia were interesting tortured souls. Who wrote. A lot.

     

     

  31. Hi X-R

    and I see Ping was here now I can’t find his post — is he for Rubio or Jeb?    Please don’t anyone leave — remember politics ain’t bean bag — and all the more reason to stick up for your candidate.

     

     

  32. Was reading eyelids last night and didn’t log onto anything on the web.  Just went and read the last thread, and for what it’s worth I didn’t read Poobah’s comments as bashing Hillary.  After how many years here and this site’s predecessors, I have come to know our fearless leader as a realist who observes the good and the bad in candidates.  Bernie’s followers calling Hillary a liar (that is all over the political blogs at WaPo etc. – largely from ‘pugns); and Hillary’s people calling Bernie an old socialist (also at the aforementioned sites and from the same sources) doesn’t help.  Remember the PUMA stuff 8 years ago?  Obama won in spite of it.  While we have our internecine squabbles, doing the ‘cants’ dirty work isn’t helping us win the nomination (regardless of which candidate we support) and are hurting our chances of party unity after the convention. I seem to recall that both our remaining candidates vowed to run issues oriented campaigns.  Maybe we should stick to that without having to be told.  If I want to see petulant children, I just need to tell my son to put his phone away. I don’t want to hear that from Dems on the media. I don’t have a terrible time with Bernie identifying as a socialist since I support a lot of what that stands for – my issue is how he would propose to get an agenda through Congress and how would it be paid for.  That he’s 74 means little to me.

  33. Jamie- where are you that you are being called all those nasty names?

    KGC-  “Will they stay home in November who knows but I’m sort of sick of kowtowing to ignorant college students who think the world started when they were born”  love it.

  34. Intelligent, passionate people who came of age in the ’60s, ’70s referring to “ignorant college students.” / Exits stage left 😉

     

  35. Jack, ,I think that “gracious” role falls onto the front runner if it can be pulled off.

  36. Mr. Cracker barely tolerates any cable news and in particular thinks Chris Matthews is a giant waste of space

    under a negotiated agreement we don’t watch Hardball but we do watch Rachel Maddow but only until she repeats the tease for some stupid story three times.  Generally like what she does but her style has become very annoying

  38. I was that person and I speak from the wisdom of looking back.  I worked for Gene McCarthy and was highly contemptuous of people working for RFK and I did think I was smart and knew a lot…I stand by my statement

    I’m only slightly less stupid now

  39. Katherine Graham Cracker,

    I salute you for supporting Mr. McCarthy. I grew up during that time. Thank goodness there were/are younger people willing to commit to working for a better future. Progress is built by the older generations & built upon by the younger. The Democratic race is fascinating because it highlights that fact.

  40.  
    Don’t let Grover Norquist or any Republican, Wall Street Democrat, Boardroom Liberal, Neoliberal, New Democrat, Centrist Democrat, Clinton Democrat, Moderate Democrat or the Third Way say that lower taxes produces greater growth.  It is simply not true! 
     
    Of the last 11 Presidents, from Eisenhower to Obama, Eisenhower had the greatest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) CPI-U 2014 adjusted, growth of 32.64% for his 8 years.  On a CPI-U 2014 adjusted basis, Eisenhower also reduced the Federal Debt by 2.565%. 

    During the Eisenhower administration the average tax rate of the lowest bracket was 20% on taxable income below a CPI-U 2014 adjusted $34,000.  The average tax rate for the highest bracket was 91.125% on taxable income over a CPI-U 2014 adjusted $3,400,000.  Over 91% tax rate for the highest bracket and over 32% GDP growth.
     
    Take that Grover Norquist!
     
     
     
    Source for GDP: Bureau of Economic Analysis
     
    Table 1.5.5. Gross Domestic Product, Expanded Detail
     
    Source for Historical U.S. Individual Income Tax rates for the Lowest and Highest Tax Brackets: The Tax Policy Center, a joint venture of the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution.
     
    Source for the Monthly Statement of the Public Debt: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service
     

  41. I wish that the partisans would play nice.

    Whiskyjack is right; there’s no good excuse for folks to chant, ‘She’s a liar.’  I can only suppose that some ripup licanines have infiltrated political events, in this case Sander’s, and the youngsters  thought it was fun to join in. It hurts the candidate when the supporters tolerate that kind of crap.

    Jamie can vote with whichever organ she pleases. I just hope she votes early and often !

  42. Hi, Ms Cracker ! I knocked and talked up McCarthy, too. The Kennedy Camelothian claptrap annoyed me no end. “If Bobby is so brave,” I’d ask, “why did he wait for Gene to fight the righteous battle ?” Jeeeeez, they were dismissive of the actual hero.

  43. I’ll have to give one point to the Republicans for their method of caucusing.  I just saw the news clip of a coin toss at a Dem caucus.  A coin toss? Ha!

    Congrats to Hillary’s supporters. Yes, it was close, but it was her win.  Close only counts in horse shoes.

    Jamie  – If  they’re telling your you’re using your lady parts to vote, may we assume it’s by absentee ballot?

    Chris Chrisie was using reverse ageism against Rubio.  Oh, gee, it’s not a “student council” race?  He must be hangry, again.  Eat a cookie, already.

    As for the education level of Iowans, please remember that there are a lot of farmers and small business owners.  They are adequately educated in other ways.

     

    We now have Zika virus in DFW…and…they think one of the cases was human-to-human transmission. Yes, Zika is an STD, too.

  44. “If Bobby is so brave,” I’d ask, “why did he wait for Gene to fight the righteous battle ?” Jeeeeez, they were dismissive of the actual hero.   XR

     

    exactly!

  45. This year’s Finding Your Roots on PBS is very well done; glad they bounced back after the kerfuffle. Amazing what we can learn from history; never forget. Interesting & fun.

  46. First things first: Craig and David.  Im truly sorry for you loss.  I lost my mother a cpl of years ago…..that doesn’t change the fact that every day is Mothers day tho…………

    Hello to everyone.!!……I havent been following politics a long time now but it seems that it has not changed  one iota…..oh cept one…..keeps getting more and more expensive to run for potus…..no financial reform……not too much interested in it all……

    Truth be told…..i would rather have a just a little bit of the 2008 fighting on here, than what ive just read…….the trail hands trying to bully the host into not uttering one word of professional opinion about their champion…….

    Should be able to handle the truth no without getting offended.  Here is what i mean: Craig…..hey you complaining about Iowa……im my opinion…it was President Carter that left all of the mess behind….he made it was it is today…..If im wrong….i will  apologize…if not….

    All families get a little testy when they don’t agree to the same thing………if one of them want to take their ball and go home…..not to worry….they are just trying to control the game….they will grow up sooner or later…..lets see…..people around here have been together for a very long time…..the politicians come and go at the speed of light……seems that fast to me……Obama was just getting a free house in Hyde Park one day…..now he can afford the whole hood.

    He is still not in the same ballgame that the Clinton’s are…….they own new york with the help of……….but give him time…….one %ers tend to help them selves out a lot.

    Me,  Im hopping for the Trumpet to win the gops race….against…..it doesn’t matter…….the only winner will still be the on %ers……

    Hey who u calling a “cretin”?

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  47. I’m on Twitter.  There is even a picture of Susan Sarandon going around (hope she didn’t approve it) who as a Bernie supporter has a sign on it accusing women who back Bernie as voting with their vaginas.  Backing her only because she is a woman.

    Someone really should let Bernie know that his supporters aren’t doing his campaign any favors.

  48. “If  they’re telling your you’re using your lady parts to vote, may we assume it’s by absentee ballot?”

    A caucus might be the only place I could attract the desperate enough for it to be an incentive. 🙂

     

  49. Oh what fun it would be for me if the Trumpet won……some of my family and friends would not be able to live it down for years to come…….

     

  50. Hi Solar

    No fear.  We have a couple of Bernie people as well as Hillary people.  I’m sure fearless leader would still like to see something happen with Webb, even if he did shoot himself in the foot in the first debate.

     

     

  51. HI Jamie……..looks like you did a really fine job keeping things going around here…….ive just started to lurk again a little while back and did take a look your site……

  54. Craig,

    Thanks for sending me the password to log on….tried several times, but could not.  later

  55. sjwny…….thanks, feel the same way when read what you have to say…..actually, what everyone here has to say….always learn something  new….

  56. Hey, Solar!  Good to see another familiar name around here.

    Jamie – I agree that Susan S. isn’t  doing Bernie any favors if she’s saying that.  She’s doing what McCain did in 2008, when he asked what’s-her-name to be his veep; assuming folks were only voting for gender. And look where that got us.  It led to the Tea Party and Turd Cruz.  Let’s blame McCain.

  57. “Truth be told…..i would rather have a just a little bit of the 2008 fighting on here, than what ive just read…….the trail hands trying to bully the host into not uttering one word of professional opinion about their champion…….”

    Solar

    Very nice to see you but your comment is way off base.. Bully the host, nonsense.. Craig has issues with the Clintons and it’s his site and he’s free to attack! Bully, lol, I’m waiting for the host’s anti Bernie posts as well as the anti Trump posts.. I’m patient…

  58. it is accepted in our society that men think with their dicks, but a woman thinking with her vagina is todays insult.  i’m voting with my vagina.

  59. it is accepted in our society that men think with their dicks, but a woman thinking with her vagina is todays insult.  i’m voting with my vagina.

    jamie- posted that already at 534, thought perhaps i would be ousted for it. glad to see you posted it too.

  66. Hey Solar…   bout time you hauled your ass over here….

    There will be no suspense here in NH concerning the Democratic side…  Bernie will take this state.  We always vote for any politician on either side from a neighboring state.

    Between the hours of 6-8 last night our phone must have rung around 20 times.  Thank god we’re leaving for vacation Saturday…   this coming weekend it’ll ring endlessly.

    Got a letter in the mail yesterday from Barbara Bush telling me what a wonderful president Jeb would make.  Hey Jeb…   at least your mother loves ya…

  68. I said my main objection to the WA Caucus in 2008 was that people who couldn’t be there couldn’t vote.  Here is the rule change that has been made for the caucus since then:
    What if I can’t make it on March 26?
    One of the main reason we are using caucuses is so we can have good conversations between neighbors, so any person who is able to attend the caucuses will be required to show up in person to cast their vote. However, people who are unable to attend because of “religious observance, military service, disability, illness, or work schedule” will be able to vote by submitting a surrogate affidavit form, which will be available on the State Party website shortly.
     

  69. Oh Patd

    That is one of my all time favorite movie scenes.  Anthony Quinn was a beautiful man in a role that was made for him.

  70. marine corps commandant “Senator, it’s my personal view that, based on this lifting of restrictions … every American who’s physically qualified should register for the draft,” Neller said in response to a question from Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Missouri, who favors the change.

    imo, women recruits should also suffer the buzz cuts of boot camp and same regulation hairdo as men.  the draft, however, should be universal and for more service to country than military duty.

  74. sturge, you asked about jeb!  here’s a good analysis in latimes by one of dubya’s speechifyers on where jeb bush went horribly wrong

    interestingly at the conclusion latimer quoted the Donald: “The final key to the way I promote is bravado,” Trump wrote in “The Art of the Deal,” his 1987 memoir-cum-advice manual. “I play to people’s fantasies. People may not always think big themselves, but they can still get very excited by those who do. That’s why a little hyperbole never hurts.”

  76. Patd

    A huge number of “volunteer” functions that used to be performed by stay at home mothers have either become obsolete or now require employees since majority of those women now working to support families.  (I really must do my rant on how “women’s Lib” destroyed medicine & education”.)

    Having an army of young “recruits” to take up the slack doing everything from teacher’s assistants to tree planters would be a huge investment in the future at a fairly low cost to the taxpayer.

     

  77. Jim Webb has an excellent post up on Facebook about the current situation in the South China Sea  that is well worth reading.

    It is a major foreign policy issue that is getting next to zero coverage.  I would love to have some moderator question Hillary/Bernie about it.

     

  78. Jamie, perhaps there’s a way by contacting rachel maddox to pose the china sea question at the debate she’s emceeing this week.  does msnbc take online questions for their debates?

  80. Not to defend the guv who ate NJ, but I think that although he was engaging in a bit of reverse ageism, the real intent of his comment about student council was that there is a fairly big difference between running for student government where you promise everything and are never really questioned about anything you promise and running for president where everything you propose is fair game, but that Rubio doesn’t know the difference between the two and behaves like he’s running for student council, sticking to his script, not answering questions, etc.   Saturday night might actually be worth watching to see if sparks fly between the two – since the guv who ate NJ is hanging by a very weak thread and has to do something to shake up the voters or book a trip back to Trenton.

  81. OOh! Rand is getting out?  Cool.  Although he did say a few things that sounded sane in what little of his debate footage I saw.

  82. Jamie…

    the second that Bernie hears the word “China”, he will launch into a speech about how the flooding of cheap Chinese goods into this country is bad for our economy and helps with the suppression of wages…    😉

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