Hurricane Politics

Michael Hits Florida Republicans Hardest

Politico: “…one Republican familiar with the affected counties said the party is bracing for a net loss of 20,000 votes that [Gov. Rick] Scott or Republican gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis would otherwise receive.”


“Days after the storm hit, it became clear that its damage was largely limited to one media market, Panama City, and affected Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson, Liberty and Washington counties. The counties of Gadsden, Leon and Wakulla in the Tallahassee media market were also affected, but not as badly.

Together, the 11 affected counties have 465,000 of the state’s 13 million active registered voters. In 2016, they voted overall for President Trump over Hillary Clinton by 9 percentage points, or by 32,181 votes. Trump’s winning margin statewide: 112,911.”


Fighter jets worth billions left in harm’s wayUSA Today


Up is down and Lies are “rhetorical hyperbole”

By PatD, a Trail Mix Contributor

Our enemies are friends and our friends are our enemies. War is peace. What climate change?

Washington Post: A federal judge on Monday dismissed a lawsuit from adult-film actress Stormy Daniels that claimed President Trump defamed her when he suggested she had lied about being threatened to keep quiet about their alleged relationship.

U.S. District Judge S. James Otero in Los Angeles ruled that Trump’s speech was protected by the First Amendment as the kind of “rhetorical hyperbole” normally associated with politics and public discourse in the United States.” He ordered Daniels, whose given name is Stephanie Clifford, to pay Trump’s legal fees.
Otero, who was appointed to the court by President George W. Bush, had indicated during a late-September hearing that he was skeptical of Daniels’s claim on free-speech grounds. He said Monday that Daniels has presented herself as Trump’s “political adversary” in public and in court filings and that Trump has the right to respond to her claims.

“If this Court were to prevent Mr. Trump from engaging in this type of ‘rhetorical hyperbole’ against a political adversary, it would significantly hamper the office of the President,” Otero wrote.

“Any strongly-worded response by a president to another politician or public figure could constitute an action for defamation. This would deprive this country of the ‘discourse’ common to the political process,” he wrote.

More Posts by PatD


Blue Wave Quantified

And here’s where it will take a massive blue wave to make a difference — the Senate.

  • Democrats have 26 seats up, only 4 are in play
  • GOP has just 9 seats up, 4 are in play

It’s all about the turn out model … As polls in these races come out over the next few weeks how much will pollsters factor in turnout of traditional non-voters who now seem energized? Underestimation will skew results toward Republicans, which might be correct, if these voters don’t show up after all.