By Jamie44, a Trail Mix Contributor
The annual post for the Kentucky Derby Trailmix tradition.
This post is heavy on facts and figures, mainly because horse players study the numbers as if they were holy writ. You can see them at every track gazing hypnotically at the Daily Racing Form or these days with their tablets and laptops tuned to TVG or Twinspires, the racing channels on cable so they can watch all the races all the time. They are trying to find gold in the Beyer Scale for payoffs of the Daily Double, Exacta, Trifecta, and Pick Four with or without multiple horses per race and boxing. If you understand that last sentence, you may have spent a few hours as a railbird (Watch the action from down in the trenches and rarely migrate farther than the ground level of the track). In Washington they go undercover at the snack bars while letting the horses deal with mud.
Wonderful Artist Jen Ferguson with her interpretation of Railbirds
The reason I insist on your choices before the Post Position draw is that it is an important element in the calculations. This year it will be on the afternoon of May 4. The Oaks for the fillies will be run on May 6 and the Kentucky Derby on May 7. For starters, no horse leaving from gate 17 has ever won. The only horses to win in the far outside posts were really big, really strong, and very fast with a great jockey: 18: Gato Del Sol (1982); 19: I’ll Have Another (2012) and 20: Big Brown (2008). These are where you don’t want to be in the pill pull.
The posts with the magic 7 & 8 winners are: 1, 2, 5, and 8, and only one with 9 winners post 10. Basically, you want a horse in 14 or less preferably in the first 10. Getting to that rail from way out is hard for both the horse and the jockey who is trying to find a hole in that mass of horses all aiming for the same place.
There are some truly beautiful horses in the following list in case you want to look them up on line. Just google the horses name plus the word horse. Unless you mention you are looking for a horse, Google gets really confused by the names.
Post Position Winners (since the use of a starting gate in 1930): The winner was one of the few Triple Crown horses: Gallant Fox
- Ferdinand (1986); Chateaugay (1963); Needles (1956); Hill Gail (1952); Citation (1948); Gallahadion (1940); Lawrin (1938); War Admiral (1937)
- Affirmed (1978); Bold Forbes (1976); Cannonade (1974); Dust Commander (1970); Tim Tam (1958); Ponder (1949) Assault (1946)
- Real Quiet (1998); Alysheba (1987); Spectacular Bid (1979); Foolish Pleasure (1975); Shut Out (1942)
- Super Saver (2010); Seattle Slew (1977); Decidedly (1962); Pensive (1944); Whirlaway (1941)
- Funny Cide (2003); War Emblem (2002); Silver Charm (1997); Strike the Gold (1991); Count Fleet (1943); Johnstown (1939); Bold Venture (1936); Twenty Grand (1931)
- Sea Hero (1993); Iron Liege (1957)
- Street Sense (2007); Pleasant Colony (1981); Proud Clarion (1967); Northern Dancer (1964); Determine (1954); Gallant Fox (1930)
- Mine That Bird (2009); Barbaro (2006); Go for Gin (1994); Unbridled (1990); Majestic Prince (1969); Lucky Debonair (1965); Swaps (1955); Cavalcade (1934)
- Riva Ridge (1972); Venetian Way (1960); Tomy Lee (1959); Count Turf (1951)
- Giacomo (2005); Lil E. Tee (1992); Sunday Silence (1989); Spend a Buck (1985); Sunny’s Halo (1983); Genuine Risk (1980); Secretariat (1973); Dark Star (1953); Omaha (1935)
- Winning Colors (1988); Brokers Tip (1933)
- Canonero II (1971); Kauai King (1966); Hoop Jr. (1945)
- Smarty Jones (2004); Forward Pass (1968); Jet Pilot (1947); Burgoo King (1932)
- Carry Back (1961); Middleground (1950)
- Fusaichi Pegasus (2000); Grindstone (1996); Swale (1984)
- Animal Kingdom (2011); Monarchos (2001); Charismatic (1999); Thunder Gulch (1995)
- Gato Del Sol (1982)
- I’ll Have Another (2012)
- Big Brown (2008)