Advice to the Democrats: Do not listen to the pollsters. Not today, not next month, not on November 7th. Think & act as if you are 10 points behind. Run as if every single state is up for play. Treat all Voters with respect; do not be dismissive. You need these fellow Americans now more than ever. This election cycle has been about emotion more than facts. Take every opportunity to speak out & set the record straight immediately. Thomas Dewey blew it, even after everyone had written Harry Truman off – because the only Poll that matters is on Election Day.
OMG!… they actually did it. The people who voted in the Republican primaries voted for Donald Trump to be their nominee. As we’ve been saying on this blog, this has been in the making for quite some time. You can’t keep telling your peeps that government is the problem and then do nothing. The peeps have fought back and are now shoving the change the grand old party has been promising right up you know where. So let’s discuss this dilemma and while we’re at it… have ourselves a big bowl of popcorn!
The annual post for the Kentucky Derby Trailmix tradition.
This post is heavy on facts and figures, mainly because horse players study the numbers as if they were holy writ. You can see them at every track gazing hypnotically at the Daily Racing Form or these days with their tablets and laptops tuned to TVG or Twinspires, the racing channels on cable so they can watch all the races all the time. They are trying to find gold in the Beyer Scale for payoffs of the Daily Double, Exacta, Trifecta, and Pick Four with or without multiple horses per race and boxing. If you understand that last sentence, you may have spent a few hours as a railbird (Watch the action from down in the trenches and rarely migrate farther than the ground level of the track). In Washington they go undercover at the snack bars while letting the horses deal with mud.
Wonderful Artist Jen Ferguson with her interpretation of Railbirds
The reason I insist on your choices before the Post Position draw is that it is an important element in the calculations. This year it will be on the afternoon of May 4. The Oaks for the fillies will be run on May 6 and the Kentucky Derby on May 7. For starters, no horse leaving from gate 17 has ever won. The only horses to win in the far outside posts were really big, really strong, and very fast with a great jockey: 18: Gato Del Sol (1982); 19: I’ll Have Another (2012) and 20: Big Brown (2008). These are where you don’t want to be in the pill pull.
The posts with the magic 7 & 8 winners are: 1, 2, 5, and 8, and only one with 9 winners post 10. Basically, you want a horse in 14 or less preferably in the first 10. Getting to that rail from way out is hard for both the horse and the jockey who is trying to find a hole in that mass of horses all aiming for the same place.
There are some truly beautiful horses in the following list in case you want to look them up on line. Just google the horses name plus the word horse. Unless you mention you are looking for a horse, Google gets really confused by the names.
Post Position Winners (since the use of a starting gate in 1930): The winner was one of the few Triple Crown horses: Gallant Fox
Ferdinand (1986); Chateaugay (1963); Needles (1956); Hill Gail (1952); Citation (1948); Gallahadion (1940); Lawrin (1938); War Admiral (1937)
Affirmed (1978); Bold Forbes (1976); Cannonade (1974); Dust Commander (1970); Tim Tam (1958); Ponder (1949) Assault (1946)
Real Quiet (1998); Alysheba (1987); Spectacular Bid (1979); Foolish Pleasure (1975); Shut Out (1942)
FiveThirtyEight: “Donald Trump’s romp through the Northeast corridor last week shattered all expectations. It also positions Indiana’s contest today as a desperate last stand for Ted Cruz and the #NeverTrump movement.”