Hello Michael

National Hurricane Center (11pm Tues):

“Michael is now explicitly forecast to become a category 4 hurricane before landfall occurs [this afternoon] … Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.”

This will be the Panhandle’s first Cat 4 in history. Only two Cat 3’s have landed there since the 1950s.

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Craig Crawford

Author: Craig Crawford

Trail Mix Host

48 thoughts on “Hello Michael”

  1. I hope that the huckster gathers his guns, his daughter, his boss, and all his stocks and bonds together at his beach palace, to fight off the hurricane and surge.

  2. With predicted landfall only 30 or so miles east, his compound could get a pounding from Michael. Pity. Ironic name for this hurricane and Huckleberry being in the zone of high confidence. I hope all others stay safe from god’s avenging angel. 

  3. wapo weather gang report at 5:09 AM:
    Hurricane Michael rapidly gained strength Wednesday morning, threatening to become the most intense hurricane on record to strike the Florida Panhandle.
     
    The storm, now an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane packing 140-mph winds, is predicted to make landfall this afternoon with that same intensity, an event that has never happened in records dating to 1851.
     
    As the storm intensified Tuesday evening, forecasters on Twitter described feelings of sickness and dread. “Hurricanes that intensify overnight just before reaching land are the worst nightmare of forecasters and emergency managers,” tweeted Bob Henson, a meteorologist and journalist for Weather Underground.
     
    Both Florida’s Panhandle, from Pensacola to Apalachicola, and its Big Bend area are forecast to be hardest hit. Water levels had already begun to rise Tuesday and the storm is poised to push ashore a “life-threatening” surge of ocean water that could inundate more than 325 miles of coastline.
    The storm also will bring destructive winds and flooding rain throughout Wednesday.

    Population centers that could witness some of the most severe hurricane effects include Fort Walton Beach, Destin, Panama City Beach and Apalachicola.

    […continues…]

  4. I do wish they would stop saying “cat-4 , cat-5” ad infinucking-item

    how hard is it to say “Category”?

  5. I hope folks evacuated.  This one is going to take out the tourist economy.  Michael won’t soon be forgotten.

    Does Huckster’s insurance exclude acts-o-god as most do?

  6. another storm intensifying – just in time for Halloween, a murder mystery perchance?
    NY mag: While Mueller Stays Quiet, Suspicious Trump–Russia Clues Keep Popping Up
    [….]
    In the meantime, the scope of possibilities for what Robert Mueller might uncover continues to broaden.
     
    Saturday, The Wall Street Journal updated one of the most curious side plots in the investigation: the role of Peter W. Smith, a Republican activist who in 2016 sought Hillary Clinton’s emails from the State Department on behalf (according to Smith) of Trump’s then-adviser Michael Flynn. Smith met with one cybersecurity expert in an attempt to acquire the emails, and waved off concerns about the ethics or legality of colluding with Russian intelligence. Smith died in 2017, very shortly after being contacted by a reporter, bearing a suicide note explaining that he had a “life insurance of $5 million expiring” and his suicide involved “no foul play whatsoever.”
     
    The Journal’s latest report fills in many new details about Smith’s work. Smith raised at least $100,000, from at least four wealthy donors, as part of his effort. Smith “went to extraordinary lengths to ensure the privacy and secrecy of his projects,” reports the Journal. Smith personally donated $50,000 to the effort, a generous gift for a man who, only months later, putatively faced so much financial distress that he killed himself for the life insurance money.
    Most interestingly, the Journal got in touch with somebody who spoke with Smith shortly before his death. “Retired Wall Street financier Charles Ortel said he spoke with Mr. Smith on the phone in the hours before his death about a new project to brief the Obama Foundation and warn its leaders against the mistakes they believed were made by the Clinton Foundation,” reports the Journal. “According to Mr. Ortel, Mr. Smith sounded excited, and he began brainstorming who to contact and how to proceed.”
     
    As Betsy Woodruff reported earlier this summer, and as Ryan Goodman noted, Mueller recently added to his team attorney Kathryn Rakoczy, “best known for her work on violent crime cases.” This would support the likelihood that Mueller is investigating Smith’s death as a murder. It is obviously possible that Smith suddenly decided to commit suicide after this conversation without betraying any hint of his intention, and while sounding excited about a future plan. But it is looking increasingly plausible that somebody in fact killed him.
    […continues…]

  7. Wishing everyone in the path of Michael the best….  get out and stay safe!

    ps…  stop denying climate change…

  8. bbc:

    […]
    One Senate seat Republicans hope to flip is in North Dakota, where the Democratic incumbent Heidi Heitkamp won by just under 3,000 votes in 2012.
    Flipping North Dakota would give Republicans a huge advantage in keeping control of the Senate (given that there are only nine Republican seats in contention this year, Democrats have no margin for error if they want to claim the Senate).
    With this in mind, a US Supreme Court ruling on Tuesday could have profound implications.
    Justices backed a lower court ruling that required voters in North Dakota to show forms of identification and proof of residential address if they wanted to vote in the mid-terms.
    The appeal that came before the court said that up to 70,000 people in the state did not have ID and therefore would not be able to vote (up to 20% of the electorate).
    Why does this matter?
    Well, in 2012, North Dakota’s Native Americans voted heavily in favour of Heitkamp (in Sioux County, for example, 84% of voters backed her over her Republican counterpart).
    Because Native Americans often lack a street system, they commonly use PO Box addresses, and so often don’t have proof of residential address.
    In an interview with the West Fargo Pioneer last week, Heitkamp said the ID requirements “clearly target” Native Americans and college students.
    Right now, she needs all the support she can get – two weeks ago, she changed her mind on approving Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh, and voted No, provoking a backlash from Republicans. And polls suggest she is slipping further and further behind Republican Senate contender Kevin Cramer.
    (By the way, Justice Kavanaugh did not take part in the Supreme Court decision on Tuesday).
    […continues…]

  9. Rachel last night on one more mystery

    Rachel Maddow takes another look at the strange story of the Trump Organization computer server behaving in an unusual way with a Russian Alfa Bank server, as re-examined by Dexter Filkins in The New Yorker.

  10. here’s the filkins story from the New Yorker:
    Was There a Connection Between a Russian Bank and the Trump Campaign?
    A team of computer scientists sifted through records of unusual Web traffic in search of answers.
     

  11. There is no place in coastal Florida that is safe from this storm should that place be in its path. We lived on a high-rise right on the Gulf in the small city of South Pasadena. No way would we stay should we be in the path of a storm. We faced reality in 1997; coastal Pinellas County had become so crowded that the bridges and escape routes would be impassible when the time came. We settled into our brand new Central South Carolina digs on Dec 10th of that year. Now, I’m past the age of caring about my evacuation.

  12. Flatus – traffic in and out of the Emerald Coast area is ridiculous.  It’s a little better than it was when I used to go there as a kid, but it ain’t great still. Route 98 is still the joke it was 50 years ago – with the exception of some 4 lane sections around Destin – and I-10 doesn’t get you out of the area until you get to Mobile or Tallahassee – and Tallahassee is a ways from I-75.  If you’re in the Emerald Coast area the answer to “How do you get to…?” is “You can’t get there from here.”  From Panama City to Carrabelle is worse.

  13. yeah wind and rain

    and oh I choose to build where big storm surges happen .

    The problem I’ve got down there is they all cry for help when the predicable happens but nobody wants to pay their taxes.

    I’m ready to say let them have their libertarian paradise.

    Jack

  14. so will twit tweet and try to trash this GOTV?

    the guardian on taylor swift last night:

    […]

    Receiving the award for artist of the year, Swift said: “Thank you so much for this. And I just wanted to make a mention of the fact that this award, and every single award given out tonight, were voted on by the people. And you know what else is voted on by the people? The midterm elections on 6 November. Get out and vote – I love you guys.”
    Her words follow comments she made on social media earlier this week, in which she endorsed two Democrat candidates in her home state of Tennessee: Phil Bredesen for the Senate and Jim Cooper for the House of Representatives. She also condemned Republican senatorial candidate Marsha Blackburn for her voting record on women’s rights and equal marriage. Swift had previously been criticised in some quarters for not engaging in major political moments in the US like the Black Lives Matter movement and the 2016 presidential election.
     
    Her endorsements correlated with a spike in voter registration – likely also prompted by a looming voter registration deadline – and Bredesen said he was honoured to have her support.
     
    At the American Music Awards, held in Los Angeles, Swift also won tour of the year, favourite female artist, and favourite pop/rock album for Reputation. It takes her AMA tally to 23, beating Whitney Houston’s 19 to make her the most successful female artist at the awards. Michael Jackson is still the awards’ most honoured artist, with 24 wins.
    […continues…]

  15. Poobah, Michael is a big sucker.  I’ve got a lifelong friend in Dothan – home of the Boll Weevil in the extreme SE corner of AL – who I’ve been trying to get some on the ground info from.  He says he and wife are staying put there – winds of 50 with gusts to 80 are predicted.

  16. sun sentinel:

    Where is Jim Cantore for Hurricane Michael? One Florida county is trying to keep him out
    Everyone knows it’s bad news to see The Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore in town when a hurricane is headed your way. So one county in Florida’s panhandle is trying its best to keep the popular meteorologist away as Hurricane Michael approaches.
    In a tongue-in-cheek Facebook post, the Santa Rose County Sheriff’s Office issued a “trespass warning” with Cantore listed as a “person of interest.”
    To make clear that they were kidding, the post specifies at the bottom that, “This is not a real trespass. We like Jim, just not under these conditions.”
    The Santa Rose police also said that Cantore is welcome to their fine county for non-business related visits during the winter months. As of Tuesday morning, the Facebook post had been shared over 12,000 times.
    […continues…]

  17. TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Politics is such a natural force in Florida that not even a hurricane can stop a campaign. And that is especially true when a part-time resident, Donald J. Trump, lives in the White House.
    Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum suspended his campaign for governor Sunday to return to the city as it prepared for a battering by Hurricane Michael. In Orlando, Florida, on Monday night, Trump threw a couple jabs at the mayor while trying to give his endorsed candidate, Ron DeSantis, a boost.
    In the interview with WFTV-TV in Orlando, Trump placed the blame on Gillum’s shoulders for a city that he said is plagued with a lot of problems, “tremendous corruption” and “tremendous crime.”
     
    “(DeSantis) opponent runs an area and a city that’s got among the worst statistics in the country and certainly in the state,” said Trump. “If his opponent gets elected, you’ll have Venezuela. Florida will become another Venezuela and that’s not good.”
    Gillum called a foul on the president.
    “Hey @realDonaldTrump — don’t come to my state and talk trash about my city while we are preparing for a Category 3 hurricane. We need a partner right now, not a partisan,” Gillum tweeted Monday in response once the comments were broadcast.
    Hurricane Michael was upgraded to a Category 4 storm Wednesday morning as it is poised to crash into the Florida Panhandle later in the day.
    Political consultants and scientists called the exchange both unprecedented but predictable in a highly volatile political environment and the campaign season in full swing. Gillum and DeSantis are locked in a tight race in one of the most closely watched governor’s races this year.
    […]
    “Politics is not going anywhere,” he said when asked about Trump criticism after he suspended his campaign. “The attacks come with the territory and I get we are in a high political season.
    “But in this moment, I’m calling persons to a higher ground and ask them to be responsible for their words and try to pitch in and be helpful and not criticize our community and citizens.”
     

  18. bully boy trump  picks on hurricane beleaguered mayor in Florida like he did the mayor in Puerto Rico

    any coincidence that one is black and the other female?

  19. omg  SFB’s numbers as a leader for emergency preparedness must be in the toilet.  This display of him being informed on the path of Michael is ridiculous when all he is going to do is hurl …paper towels

    If people fall for the optics of leadership as opposed to leadership  they are dumber than a box of rocks

  20. and we have a winner!!!

     

    npr:  ‘Her Radiant Rolls’ Put Her Over The Top: Alaska Park Names Its ‘Fattest Bear’

     
    The results are in. And this year’s winner in Katmai National Park and Reserve’s annual “fattest bear” contest is 409 Beadnose.
     
    “Her radiant rolls were deemed by the voting public to be this year’s most fabulous flab. Our chubby champ has a few more weeks to chow down on lingering salmon carcasses before she heads up the mountains to dig herself a den and savor her victory,” the national park posted on Facebook.
    Katmai National Park, located in southwestern Alaska, declared the winner of its weeklong competition late Tuesday. People could vote on social media on which bear looks to be the fattest in the preserve.
     
    This is the fourth year the national park has held the competition.
     
    It began with 12 bears and, by process of single elimination, culminated Tuesday in a final face-off of fatness between Bear 409, whom the park described as a “gigantic gal” with a “marvelous muffin top,” and Bear 747, a “blimpy boar” whose “belly barely has clearance with the ground.”
    The national park posted photos of bears in head-to-head matchups throughout Fat Bear Week, with the bear whose photo received the most Facebook “likes” advancing to the next round.
     
    While voting closed Tuesday night, votes for Bear 409 clocked in at just under 7,000 likes compared with Bear 747’s 3,000 likes on Wednesday morning.
    “All of it is a fun — and it is fun — way to educate people on the struggle for survival that these bears go through and the dramatic changes involved that. They are going to lose about one-third of their body weight over winter hibernation, and in order to survive the next year, they have to gain all of that back, in a few short weeks over the summer,” Andrew LaValle, a park ranger at Katmai, told NPR.
     
    “As fun and silly as this thing is, there is a serious undertone to it,” he said. “They’re fishing and eating as much as they are because they have to. It is a game of life and death for them, with serious consequences.”
     
    LaValle said they estimate both bears in the Fat Bear Tuesday final to be just over 1,000 pounds, saying 747 might be larger based on the size of his frame. “It is all just estimated — we don’t have them step on any scales or anything — so, we can only guess, and that’s part of the fun of it,” LaValle said.
    In the end, Bear 409 was crowned the “Fattest Bear.” Social media users seemed to concede that 747 was bigger, but they just liked 409’s apparent backstory: a single mom trying to make it in the wild.
     
    “She deserves it…has had four multiple birth litters and raised her cubs to maturity ! About time a female bear won!” commented Donna Merrick Newton on Facebook.
     
    On Twitter, @happeningfish tweeted, “409 raised cubs and STILL put in the work! Yes Queen!”
    [….continues…]

  21. more breaking news from the animal world: frontier airlines rat bigots….  species-ism?

    cbsnews:
    A woman told Frontier Airlines she was bringing an emotional support animal along when booking a flight from Orlando, Florida, to Cleveland. But the airline says she neglected to mention a key detail: Her animal companion was a squirrel.
    Cats and dogs are allowed in the cabins of Frontier flights, but squirrels and other rodents are not. The carrier said police were called when the unidentified woman boarded with a squirrel and refused to leave the plane after airline employees explained the policy to her Tuesday night.
    Flight 1612 from Orlando to Cleveland was delayed nearly two hours as law enforcement arrived on the scene, asking other passengers to exit the plane as they contended with the squirrel owner, according to local media outlets. The woman and her furry friend were eventually escorted off the flight.
    The scene was depicted in a video posted on social media by a man who also tweeted: “You can’t make this stuff up.”
    As she is taken off in a wheelchair, the woman tells onlookers to “shut up” before raising her middle finger. Amid scattered applause, she gives a thumbs up and thanks those watching, the video shows.

     

    [….continues…]

  22. pogo, last we heard from the hucksterbee was this the other day in the Oregonian:
    Mike Huckabee’s speech at a Pregnancy Care Services fundraiser at the Pendleton Convention Center Tuesday will be postponed two weeks as he and his family prepare for Hurricane Michael, according to a press release.
    The former governor of Arkansas and presidential candidate now lives in Walton County, Florida, in the state’s panhandle, which the National Hurricane Center expects will be hit by Hurricane Michael on Wednesday.
    In a statement, Huckabee said his house is in the path of the hurricane, so he’ll be spending time helping his wife “batten down the hatches” rather than travel to Oregon.
    The new date for his speech is Oct. 25.
    “I would say I’ll be there come ‘hell or high water’ but I think I’m about to see both in my yard!” Huckabee said in the statement.

    [….continues…]

  23. The support peacock was weirded than the support squirrel, IMO. But weirder still are folks who think they can get away with this stuff.

  24. Trump now at campaign rally hours, not days, after monster storm lands (Obama event was 10 days after Sandy hit).

    Donald J. Trump

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    Yesterday Obama campaigned with JayZ & Springsteen while Hurricane Sandy victims across NY & NJ are still decimated by Sandy. Wrong!
  25. Nephew is super on a house building site…..mega house, mega site….lot of Mexicans in many capacities….most of the Anglo subcontractors are pretty reserved about politics and religion around the job sites because they got good sense, but there was this one loudmouth magat HVAC guy who really drove my nephew, a librul who generally also just keeps his trap shut, up the wall with all the trump bullshit…..well, today they nailed the HVAC guy red-handed stealing Copper roof panels…..pics and everything…..nephew sends me tex:

    “He crying like a baby….He so sorry”

  26. So we have tales of bears, squirrels, peacocks and other sundry animals viewed with affection.  You know things are serious when the American Eagle chat moderators note:

    leigh_AEF (Moderator): We just had our first on camera mating of the season at 7:01 p.m. After mating Romeo and Juliet perched on the Wallenda branches. Romeo flew at 7:09 and Juliet at 7:24 p.m. 

    Whole lot of happy voyeurs as it means eaglets about mid December.

  27. politico:
    A federal judge on Wednesday sentenced a California man to six months in prison and six months of home confinement after he pleaded guilty to a felony identity fraud charge tied to Russian troll activity that rocked the 2016 presidential campaign.
     
    The sentence for Richard Pinedo, 28, is the most severe penalty handed down yet in special counsel Robert Mueller’s high-profile investigation into Moscow’s meddling to help elect President Donald Trump.
    Pinedo’s case stemmed from his admission in February to unwittingly selling stolen bank accounts to Russian internet trolls who used the credentials to buy internet ads that sowed discord among Americans in the lead-up to Trump’s upset victory almost two years ago.
     
    In brief statement before U.S. District Judge Dabney Friedrich handed down his sentence, Pinedo said he took “full responsibility” for his actions and pleaded for leniency because of both his full cooperation with Mueller’s investigators and the threats that he’s experienced since being publicly identified in the wider Russian efforts to influence the White House race.
     
    “Never did it cross my mind that the services I was providing would be used in crimes at the highest level,” he said.
    […]
    “This is a very difficult case,” Friedrich said as she ticked through how Pinedo had “opened the door” for Russian actors to upend an American presidential election and made between $40,000 to $95,000 on the transactions from 2014 to 2017.
     
    She also considered Pinedo’s immediate admission of guilt when FBI agents came to his home and the grand jury testimony delivered to help Mueller’s investigation in Washington, D.C.
     
    “I can tell you are genuinely remorseful for your actions,” Friedrich said
    [….continues…]

  28. the guardian:

    Stephen Hawking’s final scientific paper released

     
    Stephen Hawking’s final scientific paper has been released by physicists who worked with the late cosmologist on his career-long effort to understand what happens to information when objects fall into black holes.
     
    The work, which tackles what theoretical physicists call “the information paradox”, was completed in the days before Hawking’s death in March. It has now been written up by his colleagues at Cambridge and Harvard universities and posted online.
     
    Malcolm Perry, a professor of theoretical physics at Cambridge and a co-author on the paper, Black Hole Entropy and Soft Hair, said the information paradox was “at the centre of Hawking’s life” for more than 40 years.
    The origins of the puzzle can be traced back to Albert Einstein. In 1915, Einstein published his theory of general relativity, a tour-de-force that described how gravity arises from the spacetime-bending effects of matter, and so why the planets circle the sun. But Einstein’s theory made important predictions about black holes too, notably that a black hole can be completely defined by only three features: its mass, charge, and spin.
     
    Nearly 60 years later, Hawking added to the picture. He argued that black holes also have a temperature. And because hot objects lose heat into space, the ultimate fate of a black hole is to evaporate out of existence. But this throws up a problem. The rules of the quantum world demand that information is never lost. So what happens to all the information contained in an object – the nature of a moon’s atoms, for instance – when it tumbles into a black hole?

    “The difficulty is that if you throw something into a black hole it looks like it disappears,” said Perry. “How could the information in that object ever be recovered if the black hole then disappears itself?”

    In the latest paper, Hawking and his colleagues show how some information at least may be preserved. Toss an object into a black hole and the black hole’s temperature ought to change. So too will a property called entropy, a measure of an object’s internal disorder, which rises the hotter it gets.

    The physicists, including Sasha Haco at Cambridge and Andrew Strominger at Harvard, show that a black hole’s entropy may be recorded by photons that surround the black hole’s event horizon, the point at which light cannot escape the intense gravitational pull. They call this sheen of photons “soft hair”.

    “What this paper does is show that ‘soft hair’ can account for the entropy,” said Perry. “It’s telling you that soft hair really is doing the right stuff.”

    It is not the end of the information paradox though. “We don’t know that Hawking entropy accounts for everything you could possibly throw at a black hole, so this is really a step along the way,” said Perry. “We think it’s a pretty good step, but there is a lot more work to be done.”

    Days before Hawking died, Perry was at Harvard working on the paper with Strominger. He was not aware how ill Hawking was and called to give the physicist an update. It may have been the last scientific exchange Hawking had. “It was very difficult for Stephen to communicate and I was put on a loudspeaker to explain where we had got to. When I explained it, he simply produced an enormous smile. I told him we’d got somewhere. He knew the final result.”

    Among the unknowns that Perry and his colleagues must now explore are how information associated with entropy is physically stored in soft hair and how that information comes out of a black hole when it evaporates.
    […continues…]

     

  29. The rules of the quantum world demand that information is never lost. So what happens to all the information contained in an object … when it tumbles into a black hole?

    obviously these guys never heard of Donald Trump

  30. The weasel didn’t realize the “services” he was providing (stolen info) would be used in crimes…

  31. The Dems should point out that trump went to party hearty in Erie, PA, while folks across the republican band in FL, GA, and AL lost their homes to gigantic storms. That’s how much he cares about their pain.

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