Let’s talk about something other than the Presidential race!

By Dvitale300, a Trail Mix Contributor

There is a big misconception about the Senatorial race this year.  That misconception is that Trump is the one making it possible for the Democrats to take back the Senate.  Although he may have an impact – I heard the other day that only 6% of voters will vote for one party’s candidate for President and another party’s for Senate.

The real impact is geography and timing.  This year there are 24 Republican Senate seats up for re-election, and only 10 Democratic seats in contest.   This, combined with the fact that quite a few of the Republican seats in contest are those that swung Republican after the backlash election of 2010, which was Obama’s first mid-term election. Right out of the gate it was predestined that the Democrats would/could take the Senate back.  Trump is only icing on the electoral cake.

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball

It is the press that wants everyone to think that this is a ‘to the wire’ thing re: the Senate going Democratic with Trump as the key player.  They get viewers, ratings and increased advertising revenue for fostering this misconception.

The real story here lies in two areas.  First we have the House of Representatives, which has a 247 Republican to 188 Democratic margin; that’s a difference of 59 seats.  While the Republicans at the state level have been gerrymandering the hell out of districts, should the Democrats take back 30 of those slots it will send shutters through the halls of D.C. politics.

workTogetherThe second story here is the gubernatorial races in which currently, Republicans hold 31 seats, the most since 1999.  This year there are 12 governor races in contest, eight of which are currently held by Democrats.  Seven of these races have an incumbent that cannot run due to term limits.  Then there is Mike Pence from Indiana, who withdrew from the race.  As a side note is North Carolina: Republican Pat McCrory is running for re-election — in a state that is now showing in the Clinton column.

Should the Democrats manage to knock off a few of the Republican Governors this will affect the make-up of congressional districts (for the 2020 census) and possibly change/level the playing field.

If you live in one of these states, what do you see happening regarding your gubernatorial race?

More Posts by Dvitale300

78 thoughts on “Let’s talk about something other than the Presidential race!”

  1. dv, good pivot to important issue and hopes for return to a functioning legislative branch.

    that toss-up in Indiana is a bit questionable now that evan bayh is running. last poll i saw says he’s 21 points ahead. his ads have been portraying his opposition as voting for and benefitting corps who sent jobs overseas.  am wondering if those same ads (with different goper opponents of course) are running in other states…. good tactic.

  2. Wishing Congresswoman Louise Slaughter (D- 25TH NY) a belated 87th birthday. Representative Slaughter is a Congressional neighbor; solid Democratic vote; a sharp intellect with a keen sense of humor. The lady does not suffer fools, gladly or otherwise.

  3. thanks for the reminder, D-300…very happy with our dem Senators in NM…it is the house rat, Stevan Pearce that annoys most sane New Mexicans.

    Frog-cam, Craig!   With the monsoon, the toads (frogs) have awakened to mate in the puddles of water in the arroyo…at night after a thunder storm the noise sounds like cattle when they really get to croaking.  Difference between toads and frogs.  Toads are frogs.

  4. Bolstered by trump’s Kievan anti-colonial worldview speech (cleverly disguised as ‘Making America Safe AGAIN’), putie is flying his planes out of Iran to Syria.   russian fingers manipulating the radioactive and highly toxic trump.

     

  5. First question for the Presidential Debates: Nominees, name your Senators, Congressional Representative, Mayor. This would be a simple yet very revealing test for Presidential applicants. If I’m going to hire you, you’d better know your stuff – and understand why stuff like this matters.

  6. Thanks for this focus, Dvitale. Its the big story to me, if the prez race continues to be a done deal. Here in FL Rubio seems to have shaken the downsides of his disastrous prez run for a slight lead. In fact I’d say the worse off Trump gets the more it helps Rubio, who do the “told you so” routine. Worth noting that in 2018 Dems face the most Senate seats to defend, so they need all they can get now to prepare for Hillary’s midterm.

  7. This morning’s frog cam not much different than yesterday’s, they popped out just as sun came up. They’re patient models but not a lot of variety.

  8. The Frog Cam is the cutest thing. Love the expressions. They look like Beatrix Potter illustrations.

  9. boss, i take it back about mr/ms  froggy looking like sir andrew lloyd webber now that i see the side kick better.  looks more like laurel and hardy.

     

    bw. horny toads?

  10. Dvitale, Jada looks like a real buster. Glad he has a fine home. Thanks for sharing.

    Here is Toby just now on alert for early morning squirrel activity. (Not quite Full Alert or her tail would be straight up.)

  11. oh to be a fly upon this wall.  fascinating from politico:

    It’s one of the most uncomfortable and important jobs in Democratic politics: trying to embarrass the woman who could be the next president.

    The person picked to be Hillary Clinton’s sparring partner in her upcoming debate prep sessions is expected to confront her about the death of Vincent Foster, label her as a rapist’s enabler, and invoke the personally painful memories of Monica Lewinsky and Gennifer Flowers.

    Clinton’s team is beginning its preparation ahead of the first general election debate scheduled for Sept. 26 at Hofstra University. And one of the key components of that prep, campaign allies said, is finding a person who can stand in as Donald Trump during mock debates and launch personal attacks on the former secretary of state that will make the real Trump look tame by comparison.

    [….] 

    Preparation for the first general election debate is always one of the most grueling parts of the Fall campaign: the candidate typically drops off the trail to camp out in a battleground state with a small team of advisers for intense sessions and full simulations on a set built to look just like the stage.

    The person playing the opponent is typically assigned his own staffers to prep him — and during “debate camp” will keep to himself even between mock sessions in order not to break the adversarial tension necessary for a successful prep.

    “You are there to kick their ass,” recalled Democratic strategist Paul Begala, who played George W. Bush in debate prep against Al Gore. “You immerse yourself in the style and the substance.”

    Begala said it’s not so much about arriving with the self-tanner and comb-over wig necessary to impersonate Trump as it is about nailing his speech patterns and likely lines of attacks. “You don’t want to spend too much time trying to perfect the affections,” Begala said. “If he’s prone to interruptions, you need to mimic that. If he’s prone to repetition, you need to mimic that. You’ve done your job as the stand in if during the debate, the opponent repeats everything you already said in prep.”

  12. Where is Maya Angelou when we really need her? I know, I know. Who is to become poet laureate of our Great Country? Who is to take the place of the Maya who talked to the twelve year old child as her father took the presidential oath? Who?

  13. Sitting safely ensconced in the deep blue of Washington, I don’t have any concerns on the Senatorial front.  For the House, our four GOP members are sitting on the dry side of the Cascades and that tends to make them grouchy.  The State reps are much more competitive.  Since I live in the heavily military area of Pierce County, it leans towards the Republicans with 12 R and 9 D.  If anything looks exciting, I’ll let you know.

    With all this talk of Frogs and Toads, I keep hearing Lewis Carroll whisper in my ear
    ’Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
          Did gyre and gimble in the wabe:
    All mimsy were the borogoves,
          And the mome raths outgrabe.
     

  14. Sorry that Rubio’s presidential bid did not prove to Florida voters just what an empty suit he is.

    Just the same I think that the Senate looks good for Dems.( still hoping for a senate without John McCain) Am afraid that the House is just too big a hill to climb.

  15. Jace,

    I watched a clip of Rubio on the evening news. Not even a Trump Tie and an oversized shirt will turn him into a real man.

  16. Keep saying the only reason little Marco decided to run again was that he couldn’t find another job that paid as well for doing nothing.

     

  17. and in new Hampshire cnn:
    “While he has my vote he doesn’t have my endorsement,” Ayotte said of Trump. “I’m going to continue to focus on my race and getting out to people what I have done and getting results for people in New Hampshire.”
    Hassan, sensing an opening, fired back.

    “I think people should hear that statement for what it is: She is trying have it both ways,” Hassan said. “What you see the senator doing is saying she will put her party before the national security and safety of our country. I think that is inexcusable.”

    And giving Democrats fodder, Ayotte refused to say twice if she trusted Trump having his finger on the nuclear codes, launching into a criticism of President Barack Obama and saying Congress would be able to stand up to a President Trump.
    “I think, again, we have a system, a strong system, of checks and balances,” Ayotte said. “Certainly when he is elected, if he is elected, I would hope that he will surround himself with very knowledgeable people.”

  18. example of disproportionate coverage in same linked story above at cnn:

    Asked three times if she believes Clinton is honest, Hassan would not answer directly. “I support Hillary Clinton for the presidency because her experience and her record demonstrate that she is qualified to hold the job,” Hassan said.
    Asked again if she believed Clinton is honest, Hassan touted Clinton’s agenda. And asked a third time, Hassan ultimately said: “She has demonstrated a commitment always to something beyond her self, bigger than herself.”
    The Hassan campaign later clarified the governor’s statement, saying she does indeed believe that Clinton is honest.

    they never asked ayotte if she believes drumpf is honest even once let alone 3 times.

  19. ktnv:

    A couple of outside groups dedicated to turning the U.S. Senate Democratic have begun airing new ads in Nevada, both targeting GOP Rep. Joe Heck and portraying him as in the pocket of special interests and no friend of seniors.

  20. new republic:
    Marco Rubio and Kelly Ayotte are incoherently trying to sort of but not really endorse Donald Trump.

    This is what happens when the top of the ticket starts to act as a drag on the rest of the party. Rubio and Ayotte are resorting to a strategy in which they campaign as checks on the next president—whoever it is—all while saying they still support Trump.

    Rubio just told the Miami Herald that he stands by calling Trump a “con man” during the primary race. But, he explains, he’s still supporting the con man for president: “We’re in a different place now. Now we have a binary choice—not a choice between 15 people or 12 people. There are two people in the world that are going to be the next president, either Donald or Hillary.”

    Then there’s Ayotte, who says she is voting for Trump, but doesn’t endorse him. When asked by CNN’s Manu Raju just what the distinction was, she explained: “There’s actually a big distinction, because everyone gets a vote—I do, too, you know—but an endorsement is one where I’m out campaigning with someone. And so while he has my vote, he doesn’t have my endorsement, and I’m gonna focus really on my race.”

  21. Beautiful late summer day here temo 100 dew point 75. The lawn is going to have to take care of itself for another day.

  22. binary choice   Little Marco is indeed little

     

    D300 and BW

    Hatch chilis yum  I have a childhood friend who lives in Silver City and when I went to visit her I made her drive me to Hatch  in the middle of winter  she had already told me the chili festival was like the County Fair where we grew up …  The restaurant that has been reviewed in Gourmet has long since closed and the place we ate — everyone stared at us  but I was happy

    Today you can get Hatch chiles here in Sonoma County

  23. cnn:

    Former Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, former national security adviser Tom Donilon and former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm are among those selected to lead Hillary Clinton’s transition team, her campaign chairman John Podesta announced Tuesday.

    “These individuals, who bring a deep level of experience in the work of presidential transitions, will help us build a team that is ready to govern after the general election,” Podesta said in a statement.

    Salazar, who served as President Obama’s Interior Secretary between 2009 and 2013, will serve as the chairman of the Clinton-Kaine Transition Project. The team will also include Center for American Progress President Neera Tanden and the director of Harvard University’s Institute of Politics, Maggie Williams.

     

    drumpf’s transition team probably same as his campaign team… his kids.  and maybe newtie and chris

  24. Fatboyslim is in charge of the transition team for the Troll

     

    Here are our three dogs   CC is the oldest biggest and sweetest  she is the lesson for those who need to learn that persistence pays Lloyd is the baby and can entertain himself for hours   – he is known throughout the community for fly catching hence his nickname Lloyd of the Flies  Fin the pup of corn dog (weird eyes)  Our blended  family.  When we first blended our families we had to go to the difficult dog program at the Marin HumaneSociety because we weren’t blending well    We learned it was our fault.  They are sending greetings to their cousin.

    CC and Fin are rescues and lloyd has many many many relatives in our neighborhood

  25. “Fatboyslim is in charge of the transition team for the Troll”

    Absent a colossal sea change, that carries as much responsibility as putting me in charge of logistics for the base on Mars.

  26. We aren’t seeing much of Tubby or Nudie

    Kelley Ann Conway must be getting retirement size cash from Troll because she has totally trashed whatever  reputation she had

    she looks like Ann Coulters older sister she needs a new hair style

  27. Well, I guess drumpf could always try and rely on his favorability, compared to Hillary.  She’s got a -11.3 rating at RCP.  His is -28.7. He’s got her beat by double digits!!! How could he lose?

  28. When Mr Cracker heard that Ailes is assisting Troll he said “Pigs flock together”
    From the denial it sounds like Ailes has been assisting Trump all along so no big changes are coming Trump has made that clear

  29. Craig

    They keep out Trump supporters.  We were at an event in Western Sonoma County – a local band was playing – known to attract Grateful Dead fans and some guy walks in wearing a Trump Hat – people were staring

  30. I dispute several of the findings of the UVA shown in the map supra.

    1. kayotte (r-NH) and toomey (r-PA) are both toast.

    2. Kirkpatrick is neck and neck with mccain in AZ.

    3. NV & IN lean Blue.

    4. KY only leans r.

  31. Jace. Kelli Ward is here in Casa Grande selling her ideas to dump McCain from the far right. What do folks in the NW corner of AZ think of her?  And, what are McCain’s chances up your way?  And, Anne Kirkpatrick?

  32. DV…  great topic!  patd already gave the news about the Senate race in my state of NH.  Yup…  Ayotte is toast!

    Small town living….  my car was making a terrible noise coming home from the fair the other night.  Took it to my mechanic up the road a piece this morning.  Rick had to take his father to the doctor and told Jeff that he wouldn’t be around to pick the car up.  Jeff says no problem…  we’ll deliver it to your house when we are done.  I get a call…  a couple lug nuts on one tire came loose….  he tightened them.  A few minutes later my car is in my driveway and Jeff will not take any money.  I made 2 zucchini pineapple breads today…   when they cooled off, I took one up to his garage.  He refused my money…  but gladly took the bread.

  33. Wily kayotte isn’t as toasty as kirk or Wisconsin johnsin, but she is medium well done – so far. The johnson may be the only ripper candidate who lags behind deadbeat donald.

  34. Fin is a welshie a long line in our family he is known as the terrorist – he can be a very bad dog

    As a child my mother had an airdale

  35. update on the pet front is that bodhi, the rather large now tabby/Siamese, has taken to wrasslin’ with billie bob, the princess lab/chow. great ferocious show with intermittent rests between bouts (some beyond human hearing bell rings)  and both plop head to head upside down with 8 feet in the air.  every time I reach for camera, they call a truce.

  36. abc news: “Trump to Receive First Classified Briefing Tomorrow”

    He is scheduled to receive his first classified briefing as the Republican Party’s presidential nominee, according to sources notified of the upcoming visit.

    Trump is planning to take with him New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, a former Defense Intelligence Agency director who has become an outspoken supporter of Trump, a senior campaign official said.

    Career staffers from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the nation’s top intelligence office, will be leading the briefing, which is expected to cover major threats and emerging concerns around the world. [….]

    Because of the sensitivity of the information discussed during briefings of presidential candidates, the sessions must take place in locations with secure rooms, known as sensitive compartmented information facilities. The FBI’s office in New York City has such rooms.

    The FBI, however, will have no role in the briefing beyond playing host, ABC News was told.

  37. Ms Cracker,

    So, as your mother grew taller, her dogs got shorter.

    Sheba, my parents first Welsh Terrier ate German Shepherds. One enormous beast named Moose barely escaped with his guts still inside him. Sheba only lost one fight, when she was about 9 or 10 people years old. That was to a semi-tractor moving at about 30 mph. She got loose and rushed to intercept the truck, hit the front fender and came flying back end over end. That bout slowed her down. She never fought with a truck again.

  38. Yes members of our welsh terrier family have met an untimely end chasing large dogs sitting on moving farming equipment

  39. Donald Trump Drives A Stake Through The GOP’s Heart: ‘I Don’t Want To Pivot’
    Lauren Fox

    When asked if he needed to change up his tactics and work to appeal to a general election audience, Trump said “possibly” before adding that he wouldn’t.
    “I am who I am,” Trump told WKBT-TV in Wisconsin during a one on one interview. “It’s me. I don’t want to change. Everyone talks about ‘oh are you gonna pivot?’ I don’t want to pivot. I mean you have to be you.I f you start pivoting, you are not being honest with people.”

    A recent poll showed Trump behind by double digits in Wisconsin, but Trump said that he is still not planning on changing his ways.
    “I am who I am. I’ve gotten here in a landslide, and we’ll see what happens,” Trump said.

  40.  
    Donald with Nukes
    Taylor Marsh
    “More than $12 million in undisclosed cash payments were earmarked for Manafort by the party of Ukraine’s former president, Viktor Yanukovych, who fled Ukraine for Moscow after being ousted in 2014, according to a statement released Monday by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine. [Washington Post]
    GLOBAL DEALMAKERS, Ukrainian edition, will be followed by the Russian version, I can only assume.
    Trump has to be plotting an out that pays, right?
    He can’t possibly believe he can get across the commander in chief threshold with what he offered in his latest doom and gloom narration attempt at mimicking his idea of “presidential.”
    Believe me, nobody thought Harry S. Truman was “presidential” for a long time, including Harry.

    Donald’s recitation from a scrolling script is terrifying to watch.
    Military tribunals? Our courts have a better record.
    Spasms of hyperbole briefly settled on one of Donald’s saner moments. The only case he has against Clinton on isssues, which is the same argument Republicans made until George W. Bush and Dick Cheney chose to stake their legacy on Iraq: Democrats have bad judgment on foreign policy.
    Let’s look back at the Middle East at the very beginning of 2009, before the Obama-Clinton Administration took over.Libya was stable.Syria was under control.Egypt was ruled by a secular President and an ally of the United States.Iraq was experiencing a reduction in violence.The group that would become what we now call ISIS was close to being extinguished.Iran was being choked off by economic sanctions.Fast-forward to today. What have the decisions of Obama-Clinton produced?Libya is in ruins, our ambassador and three other brave Americans are dead, and ISIS has gained a new base of operations.Syria is in the midst of a disastrous civil war. ISIS controls large portions of territory. A refugee crisis now threatens Europe and the United States.In Egypt, terrorists have gained a foothold in the Sinai desert, near the Suez Canal, one of the most essential waterways in the world.

    It’s just no one is listening to Donald anymore except his small band of die hards. Many conservatives who continue to stick with him should start worrying if they’ll be blackballed forever.
    The scarlet D forever tattoed on their forehead.
    The Manafort story is delicious but even if he’s as odious as his television persona, as the report states, Paul Manafort is last on the Ukrainian’s list. Let’s hope other industrious souls like to share.
    Donald with nukes, that’s the ad I’m waiting to see.
    The closer we get to November the more that image will haunt him.
    Still…
    Is Donald really thinking his brand can survive the outcome being foreshadowed?
    Surely Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, her husband, can enlighten him because there is no evidence they are willing to sacrifice dad’s legacy on an old man’s pathological whims.”

  41. KGC, there’s a hotel (not high on the star rating) in Las Cruces that has this YUUGE sculpture of a chili in front.  We stayed there one night on the way to Phoenix.  An absolutely great Chinese family owns it – some of the most personal and honest caring service I’ve ever seen at a hotel.  My youngest daughter was not feeling well, and the owners wife (or some relative) kept coming to our door with different medicines and home remedies to help.  Really warmed the heart.  It’s what America is all about.

  42. esquire:
    Remember when Donald Trump pretty much made it sound like he supported the assassination of Hillary Clinton at a rally in North Carolina last week? Yeah, that wasn’t the first time that the Trump campaign has suggested using violence against the Democratic nominee—although a Trump adviser is now claiming she should actually be executed, not assassinated. Because that’s so much better.
    On Tuesday, Trump adviser Al Baldasaro told MassLive.com that his own comments in July about putting Clinton “in the firing line” and shooting her “for treason” were totally misinterpreted:

    “The liberal media took what I said and went against the law and the Constitution and ran with it, and they said that I wanted her assassinated, which I never did. I said I spoke as a veteran, and she should be shot in a firing squad for treason.”

    Right. Well, glad that’s cleared up. When asked if Baldasaro has considered the consequences of his statements (you know, like people will actually get violent), he responded that “Americans are better than that.”
    We don’t have a problem with gun violence, either!

  43. Eprof,

    I have to moved to WA in the last two months. Still keeping a close eye on the AZ race. Ward will probably do well out West if for no other reason than she is from Mohave county. She is a tea party candidate running as a republican which makes her about six years too late. Even in Mohave county the ‘tea party’ no longer captures people’s political imagination quite like it did initially. Too many nut jobs.

    She is a Dr. and would surely vote 50 times or more to repeal Obama care so she would fit right in with the current group of critters. Pretty much all hat and no cattle. I think that McCain will survive the primary, but he may be damaged goods. Ann Kirkpatrick is as good a chance as AZ has had in a while to send a Dem to DC. I think that she will do well in the urban areas and well enough out West to sneak in.

    Fingers crossed. Hoping for more Trump implosion and for HRC to put some time and money in AZ.

  44. Moron Jack Kingston (R, GA) was on Hardball tonight.   Jesus god what a f”cking idiot he is.  Black is white, up is down… He should rent a brain for a day to see what it’s like to have one.

  45. Pogo,

    “with the thoughts he’d be thinkin’ he could be another Lincoln if he only had a brain.”

  46. Jace, my understanding  (bro in law lives in Seattle) is that wine and coffee are the drinks of choice there. No need to fight the heat, rather, gotta ward off the chill and wet.

  47. Up by 9 in FL.

    When Glass Ceiling Fever and Dumb White Male Despair combine in November (around the time that Clinton runs ads showing trump musing about giving nukes to fauxdi Arabians) it’ll look like FDR vs hapless Alf Landon.

    Let’s all help dumbass donald defeat himself : circulate his ‘wisdom’ via email, volunteer to work for your local campaigns, and give until you feel patriotic.

  48. Put that traitorous russian agent al baldasaro in front of a firing squad –

    just to film him wetting his pants.

    Stupid foreign bastard.

  49. Hillary Clinton’s Warning to Supporters: Don’t Be Complacent
    By MATT FLEGENHEIMER

    PHILADELPHIA — Hillary Clinton does not dispute that the presidential campaign is going well for her at the moment.

    But she would rather not dwell on it.
    “Don’t be complacent, my friends!” she told supporters on Tuesday inside a high school gym in West Philadelphia. “Even though we’re doing fine right now, I’m not taking anyone, anywhere, for granted.”

    As Mrs. Clinton seizes polling advantages over Donald J. Trump in essentially every traditional swing state, her team is working to keep supporters energized and engaged, reminding them that winning public surveys in August is worth exactly zero electoral votes in November.

    Mrs. Clinton’s visit here on Tuesday — in the heart of a Democratic neighborhood, in a Democratic city, in what has been a Democratic state in six consecutive presidential races — was aimed squarely at this decidedly first-world problem.

    Often sounding as much like a field organizer as a major party nominee, Mrs. Clinton ticked off the particulars of what has become a signature venture of her bid: the registration of three million Americans before Election Day.

  50. I’m so disappointed  I guess Trump has decided not to compete in California picking Connecticut instead

    like he has  chance in either state

  51. Pogo,

    The coldest recorded temp in Seattle was 0 F : a little cool. Here in the TCs we only get -30F. That’s chilly. Tower, Minnesota on the Iron Range once recorded -60F . That is cold.

    Wishing you 70F and sunny skies.

    Good night, friend.

  52. Family values serial groper, spokescreep for mass murderers demjanjuk, milosevic and karadjic, and employer of neonazi pat buchanan, father john, the john, mclaughlin is dead at 89. At last.

    Hot enough for you, john ?

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